How Far Are the Cubs From a NL Central Crown?

[jwmann2]

The Reds are going to be the favorite in the Central this season. It's going to be interesting in St. Louis with Pujols and La Russa out of the picture but they have plenty of money to blow and have some key free agent signings.

How far are the Cubs away from the central crown? Theo is great with putting the right pieces together, veterans with young talent, etc. Will he succeed with less money to spend than in Boston?

[Sammy Sofa]

Twelve.

[Guest]

This much

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Depends on how many of these high-upside players actually turn into something useful, and how quickly the front office wants to contend.

 

They seem content to punt on this season, so who knows how many seasons they don't mind giving up on.

[Sammy Sofa]

40 rods to the hogshead.

[davell]

To contend NEXT season, the Cubs need Castro to keep progressing. Brett and Rizzo to both be league average guys as far as hitting goes. Stewart to show he can be as well. Garza needs to be a TOR starter and one of Shark or Volstad to develop into one as well. Then, you need to add a big bat and a TOR arm. Since I doubt all of this happens, I'll say 2014, when it's given the regime 3 offseasons to get things in place for a long run.

[Soul]

We're so close I can taste it.

[USSoccer]

40 rods to the hogshead.

 

hahaha exalt

[dew1679666265]

To contend NEXT season, the Cubs need Castro to keep progressing. Brett and Rizzo to both be league average guys as far as hitting goes. Stewart to show he can be as well. Garza needs to be a TOR starter and one of Shark or Volstad to develop into one as well. Then, you need to add a big bat and a TOR arm. Since I doubt all of this happens, I'll say 2014, when it's given the regime 3 offseasons to get things in place for a long run.

 

I pretty much agree with this. A lot of luck could get us into the division race next year, but the more likely outcome is contention in 2014.

[NonProfitCow]

Quick google search of jwmann2 shows that he has posted on every forum known to man. Quite impressive.

[MWV]

Quick google search of jwmann2 shows that he has posted on every forum known to man. Quite impressive.

So you're saying he knows which hotels everyone stays in?

[ManEatingTarp]

I don't know if I agree that the Reds are the favorite for the division this year.

 

Regarding the Cubs, I would guess about 3 years including the upcoming season before they have all the pieces in place.

[Omar]

Lets not forget that there are 2 wild card spots now.

[Guest]

I don't know if I agree that the Reds are the favorite for the division this year.

 

They aren't, they're a pretty clear 3rd in the division.

 

As for the Cubs, they're a year away from being a wild card/fringe division title contender, and then have the ability to be a favorite for the division every year after that.

[toonsterwu]

Like others, I agree on 2014. I don't know if anyone can give a specific answer to this, but in general, I think the Cubs legitimate championship window probably starts in 2014. The chances are high that if we aren't awfully close to the race this year (and the chances are slim that will happen), that they will sell some more veteran pieces. Assuming all goes well (and that's a big assumption), we should have some key pieces in place, and I'd expect them to make some purchases next off-season. That said, to expect everything to gel in 2013 is unrealistic (this doesn't mean we can't win a NL Central crown), so I tend to think the start of the window, the start of our championship aspiration window, probably starts in 2014, so that's the year that I'd put as the one to watch in regards to the Cubs winning the NL Central.

[Omar]

As fans, its probably best to sit back this season with very low expectations and just enjoy the game of baseball while watching our young players develop.

[Little Slide Rooter]

As fans, its probably best to sit back this season with very low expectations and just enjoy the game of baseball while watching our young players develop.

 

Pretty much. I became a Cubs fan during the '84 NLCS, and never looked back. I sat through a lot of awful teams with some pleasant surprises mixed in since, and just accepted it as being a Cubs fan. It wasn't until '03 that I got a taste of what it was like to root for one of those teams that actually had a chance to win anything, and with that taste in my mouth it was difficult to go back to just enjoying a season one game at a time without thinking in terms of playoff implications. The past 3 years, I've gradually become more accepting of it, and I've officially come full circle. The main difference is that back then, I didn't follow the minors, so now I at least have something to get excited about.

[Fast Freddie Bynum]

Lets not forget that there are 2 wild card spots now.

 

Winning a wild card wouldn't equal an NL Central Crown.

[CarolinaCubFan]

Lets not forget that there are 2 wild card spots now.

 

Winning a wild card wouldn't equal an NL Central Crown.

 

Wake me up when the NL Central Crown is a given and this team is built to go further. Being able to win this division feels like 3rd place. I'm excited about our future, wait till "next year".

[Little Slide Rooter]

Lets not forget that there are 2 wild card spots now.

 

Winning a wild card wouldn't equal an NL Central Crown.

 

Wake me up when the NL Central Crown is a given and this team is built to go further. Being able to win this division feels like 3rd place. I'm excited about our future, wait till "next year".

 

Take out the 2nd sentence and I agree. Looking at what we have now, we have a solid foundation but are missing the big pieces. By this, I mean give us an ace and a heart of the lineup we're good.

 

1. Jackson CF, 2. Castro SS 3. ??? 4. Rizzo 1B, 5. ??(Soler RF/LF?) 6.Vitters/Lake/Stewart(probably not Stewart, but who knows) 3B 7. Castillo/Soto C 8. 2B

 

Rotation 1. ??? 2. Garza 3-5 Maholm/Volstad/Shark/McNutt/Wood/Wells

 

I know the pieces we need are big ones, but when you have the rest in place and a good amount of available money they should be well within reach, and plug in an ace and a legit 3 hitter and the rest looks pretty impressive,not to mention that we'd still have a pretty good farm system.

[Shilzzz]

first.

[Guest]

Lets not forget that there are 2 wild card spots now.

 

Winning a wild card wouldn't equal an NL Central Crown.

 

Wake me up when the NL Central Crown is a given and this team is built to go further. Being able to win this division feels like 3rd place. I'm excited about our future, wait till "next year".

 

Good thing it barely matters how good you are as long as you're in the playoffs.

[KingCubsFan]

I think it's too early to say, as a lot of it will depend on how the young players develop this year. Things like Samardzija/Volstad/Wood breaking out, Rizzo and Jackson showing they can start longterm, a few of the lower level prospects breaking out, etc. will go a long way towards determining the future.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

2014 is when they'll be the surprise sweethearts of baseball. 2015 is when they become a monster after signing Justin Upton.

[Fro]

It feels like we're about a third of the way there as far as the team rebuild goes. If we sign Soler as expected that'd get us up to about 40%.

 

By 2014 we should have the core of the future team in place and then we'll just have to wait to see if the young talent develops and fill the holes if they don't.