NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

[bukie]

Let's swap Southland winner with Detroit, because if Lamar wins the Southland, they can't re-match with OSU in the 1st round.

Simple enough.

[SouthSideRyan]

Only conflict to avoid from the low seeds locked in is that Davidson can't play Wichita. What's the story on a team like Ohio playing in Columbus or NMSU playing in Albuquerque?

[bukie]

Committee will generally protect the higher seeds in a first round matchup from playing a "near-away" game. So if, for example, Ohio was set to play Wisconsin in Columbus, Ohio should probably be switched out somewhere else.

[SouthSideRyan]

53. Belmont (Atlantic Sun) Albuquerque vs. Wichita State

54. Davidson (Southern) Nashville vs. Michigan

55. South Dakota State (Summit) Albuquerque vs. Baylor

56. WAC (New Mexico State) Columbus vs. Wisconsin

57. MAC (Ohio) - Nashville vs. Marquette

58. Montana (Big Sky) - Louisville vs. IU

[SouthSideRyan]

I too, included the Louisville outcome in my rankings. I don't see much of a difference between Lamar and UT-Whatever. If Lamar loses, McNeese should probably drop to a 16.

[Vanilla Ice]

Temple loses to UMass

[SouthSideRyan]

Temple loses to UMass

 

Wow. So UMass back to the consideration pool, Temple out of the S-Curve? I'd fight for FSU or KSU

[Vanilla Ice]

Temple loses to UMass

 

Wow. So UMass back to the consideration pool, Temple out of the S-Curve? I'd fight for FSU or KSU

Agreed on UMass. Still don't have them in, but another win might change that.

 

I think I'd fight for UNLV for Temple's spot

[UMFan83]

So UMass, St. Joe's, Dayton and Xavier are all still alive for at large consideration in the A10, but none of them are likely "in" at this point?

 

and Temple and St. Louis are locks. Lots of decent but not great teams in the A10.

 

Dayton/Xavier tonight is essentially an elimination game, although if Dayton wins, I still don't have them in, although Xavier I would.

[Andy]

I'd drop Washington from the locks (I for one, didn't account for their loss in my rankings yesterday) and into consideration.

[Vanilla Ice]

Agreed, I think Washington needs to be dropped down. I think NCSU, Miami, and Xavier should all join Washington with a loss today. Still not sold that Drexel should be there.

[Andy]

I'd trade Tennessee with Washington. I definitely think Seton Hall and Northwestern should be out. South Florida might not be safe anymore, either.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll relent somewhat on Washington. Much of their resume was built in tight losses to Duke and Marquette. But when you follow that up a week later by losing to South Dakota State it's hard to feel sorry for them. No terrible losses, and they went 3-2 against the other P12 teams we seriously considered. It's certainly not a good resume, but I'm not ready to fully write them off.

[bukie]

I will say that where in the last top 8, the clear gap was between 8 and 9, in this next 8, the clear gap was between 7 (Wichita State) and 8 (Temple).

 

For now, let's just slide Temple back into the pack of 16, and rank them with that for a total of 17, 9 of which will be placed.

 

EDIT: St. Joes can go back into the discussion group if they win today. UMass I'm not sold on at all. Also, everyone should keep in mind that even though games are meaningful this week, it's just one game in 30ish, so keep the overall perspective in place.

Edited March 9, 2012 by bukie

[SouthSideRyan]

I will say that where in the last top 8, the clear gap was between 8 and 9, in this next 8, the clear gap was between 7 (Wichita State) and 8 (Temple).

 

For now, let's just slide Temple back into the pack of 16, and rank them with that for a total of 17, 9 of which will be placed.

 

And I bet my ranking of Temple skewed them higher than they ordinarily would be, and now I hate them.

[UMFan83]

I'll relent somewhat on Washington. Much of their resume was built in tight losses to Duke and Marquette. But when you follow that up a week later by losing to South Dakota State it's hard to feel sorry for them. No terrible losses, and they went 3-2 against the other P12 teams we seriously considered. It's certainly not a good resume, but I'm not ready to fully write them off.

 

Right...if you are going to compete in this year's Pac 12, you'd better have a good non-conference resume and avoid bad losses. Washington is not a lock for me

[bukie]

Here's where I'm at for the current bracket, keeping as much of the conference separation rules intact as possible while attempting to maintain competitive balance among the brackets:

 

http://i.imgur.com/cERiK.png

 

Let me know if any of those are potential rematches in the first round, or if I'm giving any higher seed any inadvertent semi-away games.

[UMFan83]

UK - Louisville

Cuse - Pittsburgh

KU - Omaha

UNC - Greensboro

OSU - Pittsburgh (Cannot play at host arena)

Duke - Greensboro

MSU - Columbus

Mizzou - Omaha

Indiana - Louisville

Wisconsin - Columbus

Marquette - Nashville

Baylor - Albuquerque

Wichita State - Albuquerque

Michigan - Nashville

Georgetown - Portland

Temple (A-10) - Portland

 

 

I am not completely sure of the rules, but I from what I know, we are trying to match the teams with cities they are closest to, with higher seeds having priority, correct?

 

I agreed with most of it but here is where I differ:

 

Marquette - Columbus, not Nashville. Marquette is about 100 miles closer to Columbus and there's still a spot open when it gets to them.

Georgetown - Nashville, not Portland. At this point there is still a Nashville slot available, which is much closer to DC

Wisconsin - Portland, not Columbus. Columbus is not available now, so they have to go to Albuquerue or Portland. I think Portland is slightly closer.

 

The rest I agree with.

 

Of course you might be reflecting what would be the revised standings since Marquette and Georgetown lost and Wisconsin is winning. I was just basing it off the s-curve bukie posted this morning. In that case, I'll have to redo.

[UMFan83]

Let me know if any of those are potential rematches in the first round, or if I'm giving any higher seed any inadvertent semi-away games.

 

I'm assuming this is just where we stand this morning, and this thing will be revised to reflect today's games tomorrow? Already, I am thinking Wisconsin and Indiana flip seeds (or at least Wisconsin is a 3 and you have to decide between Indiana and Marquette to determine who deserves to drop to a 4 seed more), Temple drops completely out of the top 16, and Georgetown might as well, or at the very least drop lower in the 4 seed priority.

[bukie]

I don't necessarily think a single game result should cause an 8-spot slide in the S-Curve, myself. I still like Indiana's overall resume more than Wisconsin, and Georgetown is safely in the top 15 regardless.

 

EDIT: Ok, I'll swap Wisconsin and Georgetown on the S-Curve...bracket is the same. :P

[SouthSideRyan]

EDIT: St. Joes can go back into the discussion group if they win today. UMass I'm not sold on at all. Also, everyone should keep in mind that even though games are meaningful this week, it's just one game in 30ish, so keep the overall perspective in place.

 

My thing, as I alluded to earlier in the thread, is that there's so little differentiating these bubble teams that 1/30 can still make a big difference. Especially when they're playing each other.

[UMFan83]

I don't necessarily think a single game result should cause an 8-spot slide in the S-Curve, myself. I still like Indiana's overall resume more than Wisconsin, and Georgetown is safely in the top 15 regardless.

 

EDIT: Ok, I'll swap Wisconsin and Georgetown on the S-Curve...bracket is the same. :P

 

Indiana is 9 and Wisconsin is 14, which is a 5 spot drop. You don't think Wisconsin could jump 3 spots by beating a top 15 team or Indiana drop 2 spots? I guess the former is much more likely than the later, and at the end of the day its still just 1 game. I just imagined IU and Wisconsin pretty close together in terms of resumes so I figured if Wisconsin one they would be seeded higher, but of course I have to go by the established S-curve, not my own seedings.

[bukie]

St. Joe's lost to St Bonnies. In the glut of bubble A-10 teams, I'd have to think this puts the Bonnies in a more favorable light than St Joe's.

[bukie]

I don't necessarily think a single game result should cause an 8-spot slide in the S-Curve, myself. I still like Indiana's overall resume more than Wisconsin, and Georgetown is safely in the top 15 regardless.

 

EDIT: Ok, I'll swap Wisconsin and Georgetown on the S-Curve...bracket is the same. :P

 

Indiana is 9 and Wisconsin is 14, which is a 5 spot drop. You don't think Wisconsin could jump 3 spots by beating a top 15 team or Indiana drop 2 spots? I guess the former is much more likely than the later, and at the end of the day its still just 1 game. I just imagined IU and Wisconsin pretty close together in terms of resumes so I figured if Wisconsin one they would be seeded higher, but of course I have to go by the established S-curve, not my own seedings.

Plus Marquette lost, and Georgetown lost, and Michigan hasn't even played yet (and could end up with a worse loss by the end of the night). If Michigan wins, I have no problem swapping Michigan in the bracket with Indiana, and some minor shifting around on the S-Curve. I think the gap between #15 and #16 is big enough to where the top 15 as is in the bracket are safe as protected seeds. If Wisconsin keeps winning, then I think it's safe to discuss them getting bumped up a whole seed line (at the expense of either Indiana or Michigan, since the rules try to avoid conference opponents playing earlier than the elite 8 when there are fewer than 8 teams in the bracket).

 

So, the way I see it, the top 8 are safe in the 1 and 2 seeds right now. The 9-15 teams are safe, but there's room for some jostling between the teams, mostly among the very similar Big Ten teams (as Marquette, Georgetown and Wichita State are done, and Baylor is going to be in their spot by default anyway no matter where they are on the S-Curve to preserve conference separation).

[Vanilla Ice]

Welp, so much for St. Joe's