NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

[bukie]

Oh, I'm way down on Louisville and Florida. Air Force is a really bad team to lose to, though. SD State through January is probably a protected seed. Since then, though, they haven't even looked tournament worthy. So I compromise them somewhere in the middle.

[SouthSideRyan]

How close to the border of in/out was USM? They're in a battle with a bad ECU team as they approach the half.

[bukie]

How close to the border of in/out was USM? They're in a battle with a bad ECU team as they approach the half.

They were ahead of Washington, WVU, Cal and BYU. There's going to be more time to move them around.

[Andy]

Silly thing to argue about, but I doubt the committee would set up an intrastate UNC/Asheville matchup in the round of 64.

[bukie]

Silly thing to argue about, but I doubt the committee would set up an intrastate UNC/Asheville matchup in the round of 64.

On the contrary, I think that works perfectly to committee standards. Less travel for Asheville, favorable environment yet for North Carolina, and not a rematch.

[SouthSideRyan]

Silly thing to argue about, but I doubt the committee would set up an intrastate UNC/Asheville matchup in the round of 64.

On the contrary, I think that works perfectly to committee standards. Less travel for Asheville, favorable environment yet for North Carolina, and not a rematch.

 

Yep, I know they've done something similar in the past. Kentucky-E. Kentucky comes to mind.

[bukie]

Except I'm wrong, that totally is a rematch from November 13th. So...I'll just swap Asheville and MEAC winner.

[Andy]

If USM loses to ECU I'm going to have to drop them a few spots.

[bukie]

Washington down 1 to Oregon State with 30 seconds to play.

 

This is why I initially listed the Pac-12 favorite as LOL.

[Andy]

I didn't really want any Pac-12 at-larges in there anyway. Washington has to be out now.

[Vanilla Ice]

Of course, SDSU responds by needing a last second shot to beat Boise State and Louisville goes up big against Marquette.

 

I didn't really want any Pac-12 at-larges in there anyway. Washington has to be out now.

I've got them out after that loss. NW might be joining them if they can't beat Minnesota here.

[bukie]

Another hour yet for phase 3.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a coming

[bukie]

Here are my choices for stage 3:

 

 

Top 16:

Indiana

Wisconsin

Marquette

Baylor

Wichita State

Michigan

Georgetown

Temple (A-10)

UNLV (MWC)

St Mary's (WCC)

Louisville

Creighton (MVC)

Florida State

Murray State (OVC)

Florida

Kansas State

 

Next 12:

Memphis

New Mexico

Notre Dame

Gonzaga

Purdue

Vanderbilt

San Diego State

Cincinnati

Alabama

Iowa State

Connecticut

California

 

Top 10 Consider:

Long Beach State

Colorado State

Texas

Drexel

South Florida

Miami

Northwestern

NC State

Iona

Middle Tennessee

 

Bottom 10 Consider (worst first):

Massachusetts

Mississippi

Marshall

St Joseph's

Central Florida

Tennessee

Stanford

Mississippi State

Oregon

Xavier

 

Bottom 8 in field (worst first):

MAC (Ohio)

Montana (Big Sky)

Davidson (Southern)

WAC (New Mexico State)

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

Harvard (Ivy)

VCU (CAA)

South Dakota State (Summit)

[bukie]

Step 3 results:

 

S-Curve (top 16, bottom 16):

 

1. Kentucky (SEC)

2. Syracuse (Big East)

3. Kansas (Big 12)

4. North Carolina (ACC)

5. Ohio State (Big Ten)

6. Duke

7. Michigan State

8. Missouri

9. Indiana

10. Marquette

11. Baylor

12. Michigan

13. Georgetown

14. Wisconsin

15. Wichita State

16. Temple (A-10)

...

53. Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

54. Davidson (Southern)

55. South Dakota State (Summit)

56. WAC (New Mexico State)

57. MAC (Ohio)

58. Montana (Big Sky)

59. Lehigh (Patriot)

60. Loyola MD (MAAC)

61. Detroit (Horizon

62. Southland (Lamar)

63. UNC Asheville (Big South)

64. Long Island (NEC)

65. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

66. America East (Stony Brook)

67. MEAC (Norfolk State)

68. SWAC (Mississippi Valley State)

 

 

Next 16:

 

Cincinnati

Creighton (MVC)

Florida

Florida State

Gonzaga

Iowa State

Kansas State

Louisville

Memphis (C-USA)

Murray State (OVC)

Notre Dame

Purdue

St Louis

St Mary's (WCC)

UNLV (MWC)

Vanderbilt

 

 

Rest of at-large field (18):

 

Alabama

BYU

California (Pac-12)

Colorado State

Connecticut

Drexel

Long Beach State (Big West)

Miami

NC State

New Mexico

San Diego State

South Florida

Southern Miss

Texas

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Xavier

 

 

Other auto bids (2):

 

Harvard (Ivy)

VCU (CAA)

 

 

Teams still in the discussion board (5):

 

Dayton

Mississippi State

Northwestern

Seton Hall

Tennessee

 

 

Teams off the board (10):

 

Central Florida

Iona

Marshall

Massachusetts

Middle Tennessee

Minnesota

Mississippi

Oregon

St Joseph's

Stanford

 

[bukie]

Stage 4, for midnight CST Friday:

1) Place the teams in the S-Curve into the bracket and assign pods as per bracketing rules. This can be done in the thread over the next day.

2) Discuss any potential movement of teams already on the S-Curve. For example, Marquette lost badly today to Louisville, and UT-Arlington got blown out, so the best case scenario for the Southland bid is now Lamar.

3) Discuss whether any teams off the board need to be in the discussion anyway (Arizona/Oregon?), or if any of the 5 teams in limbo should be bumped above teams currently in the field.

4) Rank the next top 16, of which 8 will be placed in the S-Curve

5) Rank the remaining 20 (18 at-large, 2 auto-bids), the bottom 12 of which will be placed in the S-Curve

[Vanilla Ice]

Stage 4, for midnight CST Friday:

2) Discuss any potential movement of teams already on the S-Curve. For example, Marquette lost badly today to Louisville, and UT-Arlington got blown out, so the best case scenario for the Southland bid is now Lamar.

I had already accounted for Marquette's loss to Louisville in my rankings, FWIW.

 

Stage 4, for midnight CST Friday:

3) Discuss whether any teams off the board need to be in the discussion anyway (Arizona/Oregon?), or if any of the 5 teams in limbo should be bumped above teams currently in the field.

I think St. Joe's should be moved back into the discussion. Two top-25 wins (Temple/Creighton) is more than a bunch of other teams can say (NCSU/NW/Washington/Miss St.). Yeah, they have their bad losses, but not worse than a bunch of other teams (Miss St./Dayton/Tennessee). Add in head-to-head wins over Drexel and Dayton and a quality non-conference schedule and I think they deserve to be bumped up a group.

 

I'd argue Seton Hall deserves to be in over Washington (along with Tennessee, St Joe's, Miss. St., and Northwestern). Washington's lone RPI top 50 win is at home against Oregon (#49) and they only have 4 top 100 wins, plus 2 100+ losses in their last 2 games. Seton Hall has four wins over tourney teams (Georgetown/UConn/VCU/WVU) and only one more loss against 100+ teams.

 

I think I would throw Tennessee or St. Joe's over Drexel, too. Drexel has only one top 50 win, which has a lot to do with their conference. However, they did not help themselves by playing only the 218th hardest non-conference schedule. Once again, only 4 top 100 wins, plus 3 100+ losses. I made my case for St. Joe's above, but Tennessee has 4 wins over strong tournament teams (Vandy/Florida 2x/UConn). The major mark against them is the 4 100+ losses, but 3 of those came before Christmas and the other was in the middle of January.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

EDIT: IF UCF or Marshall wins tomorrow, but loses in the C-USA Championship, I think one of them would be worth discussing again.

[SouthSideRyan]

After putting the top 3 and bottom 3 from the at-large pool out there, I could barely see a difference in the remaining 21 teams. All those A-10 teams started to blend together in my head.

 

ETA: I agree that Tennessee's resume shocked me. I kinda like them now.

[SouthSideRyan]

UK - Louisville

Cuse - Pittsburgh

KU - Omaha

UNC - Greensboro

OSU - Pittsburgh (Cannot play at host arena)

Duke - Greensboro

MSU - Columbus

Mizzou - Omaha

Indiana - Louisville

Wisconsin - Columbus

Marquette - Nashville

Baylor - Albuquerque

Wichita State - Albuquerque

Michigan - Nashville

Georgetown - Portland

Temple (A-10) - Portland

 

Do we want to accommodate 5-6 seeds as well?

[UMFan83]

Another hour yet for phase 3.

 

I'm sorry I completely zoned out last night. Thought about it at around 930 and then it just completely slipped my mind.

 

I promise I'll be participating the rest of the way.

[bukie]

I like Tennessee a lot better than Mississippi State, actually, now that I look closer at it. I don't get the Mississippi State love. They only have two sub-100 losses because they're fortunate most of the teams they've lost to were between 89 and 100 (100 Arkansas twice, 89 LSU, 99 Georgia twice). They might be the biggest benefitter in history to the "top 100" cutoff rule. One OT road win over Vandy can't possibly go that far.

[bukie]

And Tennessee is really similar to the Illinois team a few years back that had a terrible couple non-con games. For that Illinois team it was enough to keep them out of the bracket, but this bracket has four extra spots.

 

I actually like Northwestern better than both, still, though. Even though they have just the one top 50 win, all their losses have been to good teams (all top 40 teams except Illinois/Minnesota, and I count Illinois pre-Jan 15 to be a top-40 team)

[CubColtPacer]

And Tennessee is really similar to the Illinois team a few years back that had a terrible couple non-con games. For that Illinois team it was enough to keep them out of the bracket, but this bracket has four extra spots.

 

I actually like Northwestern better than both, still, though. Even though they have just the one top 50 win, all their losses have been to good teams (all top 40 teams except Illinois/Minnesota, and I count Illinois pre-Jan 15 to be a top-40 team)

 

A little note about Tennessee: they got their 3rd leading scorer and their 2nd leading rebounder as a transfer midseason. They were 8-5 in conference with him (2 losses to Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, at Alabama, and the only bad loss to Georgia) and had notable wins such as at Florida, home against Vandy, and home against UConn with him playing. It's something the committee might consider as a small factor to prop up their resume.

[bukie]

Yes, that's definitely the kind of thing that can affect a team's standing. Especially since they've now had so much time with the new players, and it's as if they're a different team with those players.

[SouthSideRyan]

Let's swap Southland winner with Detroit, because if Lamar wins the Southland, they can't re-match with OSU in the 1st round.