Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[mul21]

You can easily talk yourself out of signing every single impact bat that comes down the pipeline. THAT'S the nature of the beast; nine times out of ten guys like this are going to cost too much. People can decry overpaying for guys like this due to timing or the demands of the market or whatever; that's how baseball works. If you want to play the shell game and essentially shuffle 75% of the team every 2-3 years trying to be cost-effective waiting for the "perfect" big name FA to come along and the farm system to start spewing out productive everyday starters, great, have fun; it'll suck more often than not.

Nobody here wants that, as best I can tell. It's a figment of your imagination that you keep perpetrating as fact.

 

It's the reality of the situation that the Cubs are in right now. At some point they have to take the plunge and bolster the team through significant FA signings because their farm system ain't producing enough talent right now to either make their team or make enough impact trades to fix things. The problem is also that the forecast of significant offensive FA being available is pretty barren for a while once Fielder is signed.

I agree completely with the first two sentences.

 

Where we differ is, the fact that the forecast of significant offensive FA being available is pretty barren for a while doesn't convince me that signing Fielder to a contract I think will be a mistake, and will hurt the team in the long run, is a wise choice.

 

That's the thing though. The Cubs are a large market team with a large payroll and some big contracts coming off the books. They can afford a less than ideal contract here and there without terribly hamstringing themselves like a lot of other teams would. That's why I'm okay with overpaying for him by a not outlandish margin.

[MSG T]

I have a question regarding Fielder, and somewhat in general about WAR. Looking at his stats there's something quirky about his 2008 season, and I think it partially affects judgement on him overall. He had a .370 wOBA and a 130 OPS+ that year which, to be fair, were the lowest of the last 5 seasons. However, neither were that much lower than 2010, where he had a .380 wOBA and a 135 OPS+. On the negative side, he lost almost a full point of WAR each for fielding (-9.2 runs) and baserunning (-9.8 runs). Here's where my question(s) come in.

 

First, am I converting the runs into wins correctly? Meaning, I using 10 runs per win, I think that's what I saw in Baseball Between the Numbers.

 

Second, how accurate are those figures for fielding and baserunning? Assuming I'm translating correctly, how do we know he was worth 19 runs less than replacement in those two areas?

 

Third, it also appears, based on oWAR from his b-r page, that there was a quirk that year. Despite being very similar to 2010 in raw numbers, his oWAR for 2008 was a full win lower than 2010. Isn't it possible that season he was a victim of weird circumstances?

 

I'm not trying to say I'm looking at these in the right way, just trying to understand why 2008 and 2010 look extremely similar but there's a difference of almost 2.0 WAR there.

[Magnetic Curses]

isn't WAR a comparitive stat? meaning it's graded on a curve.

[CubColtPacer]

You can easily talk yourself out of signing every single impact bat that comes down the pipeline. THAT'S the nature of the beast; nine times out of ten guys like this are going to cost too much. People can decry overpaying for guys like this due to timing or the demands of the market or whatever; that's how baseball works. If you want to play the shell game and essentially shuffle 75% of the team every 2-3 years trying to be cost-effective waiting for the "perfect" big name FA to come along and the farm system to start spewing out productive everyday starters, great, have fun; it'll suck more often than not.

Nobody here wants that, as best I can tell. It's a figment of your imagination that you keep perpetrating as fact.

 

It's the reality of the situation that the Cubs are in right now. At some point they have to take the plunge and bolster the team through significant FA signings because their farm system ain't producing enough talent right now to either make their team or make enough impact trades to fix things. The problem is also that the forecast of significant offensive FA being available is pretty barren for a while once Fielder is signed.

I agree completely with the first two sentences.

 

Where we differ is, the fact that the forecast of significant offensive FA being available is pretty barren for a while doesn't convince me that signing Fielder to a contract I think will be a mistake, and will hurt the team in the long run, is a wise choice.

 

That's the thing though. The Cubs are a large market team with a large payroll and some big contracts coming off the books. They can afford a less than ideal contract here and there without terribly hamstringing themselves like a lot of other teams would. That's why I'm okay with overpaying for him by a not outlandish margin.

 

I think those are the big two questions.

 

1) Is 6/150 an outlandish margin? What would you need to expect in production to sign him to that deal? 120 million? 110 million? 100 million?

 

2) As you said, the Cubs can afford to overpay a player or two per year without really hurting the budget. Do the Cubs value Fielder enough to be one of those players?

 

Both of those are on a continuum. It's hard to pin down Fielder's production level because it's bounced around so much and because of his body type as he ages. It's hard to know if the Cubs should commit to Fielder without knowing what the plan for the rest of the roster is.

 

I think both sides mostly agree that contract is overpaying for Fielder. The question is how much is it worth it to overpay anybody and how much is worth it to overpay because of the Cubs particular situation. And that makes it a very close call.

[Sammy Sofa]

You can easily talk yourself out of signing every single impact bat that comes down the pipeline. THAT'S the nature of the beast; nine times out of ten guys like this are going to cost too much. People can decry overpaying for guys like this due to timing or the demands of the market or whatever; that's how baseball works. If you want to play the shell game and essentially shuffle 75% of the team every 2-3 years trying to be cost-effective waiting for the "perfect" big name FA to come along and the farm system to start spewing out productive everyday starters, great, have fun; it'll suck more often than not.

Nobody here wants that, as best I can tell. It's a figment of your imagination that you keep perpetrating as fact.

 

It's the reality of the situation that the Cubs are in right now. At some point they have to take the plunge and bolster the team through significant FA signings because their farm system ain't producing enough talent right now to either make their team or make enough impact trades to fix things. The problem is also that the forecast of significant offensive FA being available is pretty barren for a while once Fielder is signed.

I agree completely with the first two sentences.

 

Where we differ is, the fact that the forecast of significant offensive FA being available is pretty barren for a while doesn't convince me that signing Fielder to a contract I think will be a mistake, and will hurt the team in the long run, is a wise choice.

 

"Mistake" and "hurt" are all relative to the resources a team has.

[MSG T]

isn't WAR a comparitive stat? meaning it's graded on a curve.

 

 

I understand that part. It changes based on other players and what replacement level is each year. My bigger question is really the defense and baserunning. I mean, he lost almost 2.0 WAR to those two. I realize he isn't the greatest defensive 1B ever, nor the greatest baserunner, but he's that many runs below replacement? Really. Those two things really hit his overall worth that season, much more than any of his other years.

 

I just don't see the issues some others see. There's no doubt in my mind, he'll never be a consistent 6.0-7.0 WAR player like Pujols has been. But looking at his age and his numbers, I also have no doubt he'll average 4.5-5.0 for the next 3-4 seasons. He does that, then have a couple in the 3.0-3.5 range, he'd be worth signing. Would his value be at what he's paid? Probably not. But, would he be worth it for the Cubs to sign, even figuring overpaying some? I think so.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Fielders defense is certainly suspect, but in his off seasons, he's hit over 30 HR and OPSd in the .870s and in his on season his OPSd in the 1.000 neighborhood. If there's someone soon to be availble through FA or a trade that we could make given what we have to offer, I'd very much like to know who it is. Hint: nobody who has been mentioned so far in this thread is it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

[NonProfitCow]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

-9 looks kind of optimistic by those numbers. 4 for 38 1st to 3rd is incredibly awful. I don't know if there's a way to get a full MLB list to see where he is, but it's got to be the worst. I just looked up the slowest guy I could think of, Yadier Molina, and he was 8-25.

[ConstableRabbit]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

Pretty terrible.

 

I have to wonder how much of this is on the manager/3B coach? (yes, I know our current manager was a terrible 3B coach...)

[Sammy Sofa]

Why does he have ANY CS numbers? Does that include getting picked off?

[SouthSideRyan]

Why does he have ANY CS numbers? Does that include getting picked off?

 

Ned Yost was his manager most of the year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why does he have ANY CS numbers? Does that include getting picked off?

 

Sadly, no.

 

For his career, he has 16 stolen bases and 10 caught stealings, only 1 of which was a pickoff.

[Tracer Bullet]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

[Sammy Sofa]

Why does he have ANY CS numbers? Does that include getting picked off?

 

Sadly, no.

 

For his career, he has 16 stolen bases and 10 caught stealings, only 1 of which was a pickoff.

 

Ridiculous. I hate it when managers try to get cute like that. Stolen bases aren't valuable enough for that kind of isht.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

 

Oops, that was a typo. It should be "4 for 14."

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01-bat.shtml

[Guest]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

 

For the confluence of a - him being on second and b - a single being hit happening, it doesn't seem like once every 13 games or so is all that crazy. But maybe it is. I'm bad at these types of guesses.

[NonProfitCow]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

BRef has it at 24. And it has him 3-64 going 1st to 3rd.

[MWV]

1 for 45 going first to third on a single in 2009.

 

For comparison, 35 year old David Ortiz was 7 for 36 last season.

 

I admit I had never really perused his baserunning stats. They're [expletive] hideous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

BRef has it at 24. And it has him 3-64 going 1st to 3rd.

 

That's 2010.

[MSG T]

So tell him to never take an extra base under any circumstance.

[ConstableRabbit]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

no.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

no.

 

It should have been 14, but otherwise, yes.

[MSG T]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

Is that saying he was only on 2nd 12 times when a single was hit. That seems insanely low to me.

 

 

It looks like he tried scoring on a single while at 2B 12 times. He may have gone from 2B to 3B 20 times on a single (made up number based on that not being posted).

[imb]

Prince Fielder, 2008 baserunning

 

9 out on the basepaths

2 caught stealings

1st to third on a single: 4 for 38

1st to home on a double: 5 for 13

2nd to home on a single: 4 for 12

 

That's some pretty darn bad baserunning. I don't know if it's worth -9 runs or whatever, but it's awful.

 

This looks pretty awful, but could we get some context on other 1B please?