Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[Exile on Waveland]

After that point, it gets a little messy.

 

After that? It got messy way before that.

[Backtobanks]

Rob and TT are two of the posters whose opinions on baseball I respect most on here...

 

I already had my reservations about Prince initially...and they're making a compelling case based on a lot of the same things I was worried about.

 

Not even sure what I want at this point, outside of Prince on a cheaper than expected (which isn't likely) contract.

 

But if we don't get him, there aren't a ton of other options down the line...and we're also likely to be more horrible than I can imagine next year.

 

I agree with you to an extent, but this team is at the point where they need an elite bat or 2 to have any hopes for the next 3-4 years. I like the idea of taking chances on the Ian Stewarts and Daric Bartons of the world, but at some,point you need a solid foundation to build upon. Our farm system is almost built to produce role players to be used as pieces to build around bigger guys to who would be aquired through trade or free agency. If we dont end up paying for Fielder, we'll have to pay for somebody, and I don't think that another Prince Fielde and certainly not another Albert Pujols will be hitting the market anybtime soon. If they do, they'll be just as expensive and there will be reasons not to give them what they're expected to get, however, there will always be someone willing to give it to them. Unless we want to watch Starlin Castro and Brett Jackson surrounded by various incarnations of Marlon Byrd, David DeJesus, and Jeff Baker until we can finally produce our own superstars we'll need to start adding some top players, and those aren't just going to fall into our lap for nothing.

 

Exactly my sentiments. All of this "bargain hunting" is starting to piss me off. Unless someone can guarantee that we will win the bidding wars on Darvish, Cespedes, Soler, etc., it's time to start building a decent team for 2012 and a winner in 2013. As many holes as there are for 2012, there are more holes for 2013 unless all of our top prospects overreach their potential this year. Your comment about surrounding Castro and Jackson with mediocrity is based on the fact that Jackson is going to be a solid ML player, which isn't a sure thing.

[Little Slide Rooter]

My question to the anti-Fielder faction: If we don't get Fielder and end up with someone like Daric Barton, what is your realistic prediction for this team contending again? Even if Smoak becomes available due to ther Mariners signing Fielder, he's still a high ceiling 25 year old so they won't just send him our way for cheap, and The Marlins have said they don't want to move LoMo and if they do they'll get better offers than what we have. Even with Carlos Lee and his history of mashing at Wrigley how much salary would we expect to Astros to eat and what would we give up in return for 1 year of his services?

 

Some people seem to have this idea that Epstein will be able to build a winner without any big spending, and with Boston, with the 1st WS he already had a strong core and for the 2nd he did what he did with big spending, big trades, and a very strong farm system. Even with David Ortiz, he was coming off a .272/.339/.500 season when The Red Sox got him so we can't exactly equate that to Ian Stewart or Daric Barton. The Red Sox have been very good for a long time. Since 1995, they've finished below .500 once. Jim Hendry knew how to build a contender. Trouble was, he wan't able to keep the team a contender. This is what Theo was hired to do, and I look forword to the ride, but to anyone who wanted a GM with a history of turning a small market team into a perenial winner, Friedman was the guy.

[dew1679666265]

Logan Morrison

Gaby Sanchez

Justin Smoak

Ike Davis

Kyle Blanks

Mark Trumbo*

Daric Barton

Travis Snider

 

This list is part of my concern over passing on Prince. Smoak may well not be available, there's no reason why Blanks and Davis would be available for anything reasonable, Barton may well not slug over .400, Trumbo is really bad, Sanchez may not be available and is 30 years old, and Snider has a .307 career OBP.

 

Will Logan Morrison hit enough to be a first baseman? I hadn't really seriously considered him for first, but if the thought is he'll hit enough to play first then that'd be a good move.

 

Kendrys Morales

Mark Reynolds

Adam Lind

 

Morales I like if healthy, but that's a big if. Reynolds interested me as a buy-low option at third, but I seriously doubt he hits enough to be passable at first. Lind is another guy (as you pointed out) with an awful OBP, though that could be fixed maybe.

 

Carlos Pena

Michael Cuddyer

Carlos Lee

 

These guys would be ok on 1 year contracts I guess, but I'm not convinced they'll settle for that and I think the offers will be greater. I have no interest in any of them on more than one year deals.

 

Basically I'm seeing 3 options for the Cubs if they pass on Prince:

 

1) Overpay severely in prospects for a possible long term option (Smoak, Davis, Blanks)

2) Go with a one-dimensional option offensively in Barton (OBP only) or Snider/Lind (SLG only) and hope that elite offensive players without flaws (if they exist) come available that we're willing to sign in the near future

3) Grab an old placeholder and hope for a breakout year each season - a very small market-esque strategy

[MSG T]

Logan Morrison

Gaby Sanchez

Justin Smoak

Ike Davis

Kyle Blanks

Mark Trumbo*

Daric Barton

Travis Snider

 

This list is part of my concern over passing on Prince. Smoak may well not be available, there's no reason why Blanks and Davis would be available for anything reasonable, Barton may well not slug over .400, Trumbo is really bad, Sanchez may not be available and is 30 years old, and Snider has a .307 career OBP.

 

Will Logan Morrison hit enough to be a first baseman? I hadn't really seriously considered him for first, but if the thought is he'll hit enough to play first then that'd be a good move.

 

Kendrys Morales

Mark Reynolds

Adam Lind

 

Morales I like if healthy, but that's a big if. Reynolds interested me as a buy-low option at third, but I seriously doubt he hits enough to be passable at first. Lind is another guy (as you pointed out) with an awful OBP, though that could be fixed maybe.

 

Carlos Pena

Michael Cuddyer

Carlos Lee

 

These guys would be ok on 1 year contracts I guess, but I'm not convinced they'll settle for that and I think the offers will be greater. I have no interest in any of them on more than one year deals.

 

Basically I'm seeing 3 options for the Cubs if they pass on Prince:

 

1) Overpay severely in prospects for a possible long term option (Smoak, Davis, Blanks)

2) Go with a one-dimensional option offensively in Barton (OBP only) or Snider/Lind (SLG only) and hope that elite offensive players without flaws (if they exist) come available that we're willing to sign in the near future

3) Grab an old placeholder and hope for a breakout year each season - a very small market-esque strategy

 

 

I pretty much agree with everything you have here. I'd also add Morrison in with Blanks and Davis as far as availbility. I'd love to have him, but it would cost a ton to get him.

[davearm2]

My question to the anti-Fielder faction: If we don't get Fielder and end up with someone like Daric Barton, what is your realistic prediction for this team contending again? Even if Smoak becomes available due to ther Mariners signing Fielder, he's still a high ceiling 25 year old so they won't just send him our way for cheap, and The Marlins have said they don't want to move LoMo and if they do they'll get better offers than what we have. Even with Carlos Lee and his history of mashing at Wrigley how much salary would we expect to Astros to eat and what would we give up in return for 1 year of his services?

 

Some people seem to have this idea that Epstein will be able to build a winner without any big spending, and with Boston, with the 1st WS he already had a strong core and for the 2nd he did what he did with big spending, big trades, and a very strong farm system. Even with David Ortiz, he was coming off a .272/.339/.500 season when The Red Sox got him so we can't exactly equate that to Ian Stewart or Daric Barton. The Red Sox have been very good for a long time. Since 1995, they've finished below .500 once. Jim Hendry knew how to build a contender. Trouble was, he wan't able to keep the team a contender. This is what Theo was hired to do, and I look forword to the ride, but to anyone who wanted a GM with a history of turning a small market team into a perenial winner, Friedman was the guy.

This team isn't going to contend until they add several impact players. But the thing is, none of them has to be a 1B. There are openings all over the field, and there's flexibility to move a guy like Castro or Soto to a different position if push comes to shove.

 

I could live with a guy like Fielder as the final piece to the puzzle. I hate him as the first piece to the puzzle, because the risk is too great that he begins to decline before the other pieces are in place. I just don't see his productive window as being very long, despite his age. I know this is not the consensus view.

[Little Slide Rooter]

My question to the anti-Fielder faction: If we don't get Fielder and end up with someone like Daric Barton, what is your realistic prediction for this team contending again? Even if Smoak becomes available due to ther Mariners signing Fielder, he's still a high ceiling 25 year old so they won't just send him our way for cheap, and The Marlins have said they don't want to move LoMo and if they do they'll get better offers than what we have. Even with Carlos Lee and his history of mashing at Wrigley how much salary would we expect to Astros to eat and what would we give up in return for 1 year of his services?

 

Some people seem to have this idea that Epstein will be able to build a winner without any big spending, and with Boston, with the 1st WS he already had a strong core and for the 2nd he did what he did with big spending, big trades, and a very strong farm system. Even with David Ortiz, he was coming off a .272/.339/.500 season when The Red Sox got him so we can't exactly equate that to Ian Stewart or Daric Barton. The Red Sox have been very good for a long time. Since 1995, they've finished below .500 once. Jim Hendry knew how to build a contender. Trouble was, he wan't able to keep the team a contender. This is what Theo was hired to do, and I look forword to the ride, but to anyone who wanted a GM with a history of turning a small market team into a perenial winner, Friedman was the guy.

This team isn't going to contend until they add several impact players. But the thing is, none of them has to be a 1B. There are openings all over the field, and there's flexibility to move a guy like Castro or Soto to a different position if push comes to shove.

 

I could live with a guy like Fielder as the final piece to the puzzle. I hate him as the first piece to the puzzle, because the risk is too great that he begins to decline before the other pieces are in place. I just don't see his productive window as being very long, despite his age. I know this is not the consensus view.

 

But who are these impact players, where do they come from, and how do we get them? Kemp's off the market. I can't think of any other impact players hitting the market in the next few years.

[Guest]

FREE AGENCY ISN'T THE ONLY WAY TO ACQUIRE PLAYERS

 

 

There are so many players of note that are at least rumored to be available in trade, and adding one of them in conjunction with Darvish makes for a quality team almost immediately while still having the ability to add more. I mean seriously, you could be looking at adding Darvish and a trade target(Danks/Floyd/Gio/Shields/etc) to a rotation that already includes Garza/Dempster/Z/Wells/Cashner. That gives you assets to work with to make incremental improvements to the lineup while still having an incredible rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]

FREE AGENCY ISN'T THE ONLY WAY TO ACQUIRE PLAYERS

 

 

It is when your stated goal is to acquire assets. In trades you relinquish assets, and presumably your younger, more valuable to the long-term stability of the franchise ones, at that.

[davell]

The bottom line is the pickings are pretty damn slim for the future at 1B. Now granted, you don't have to have elite production out of 1B if you're getting it elsewhere. Anyway, a few other names I could see hitting the market within a year, if they're not already would be Daniel Murphy(supposedly is now) Michael Morse, Billy Butler, Matt LaPorta, Brandon Belt, and Justin Morneau.

[Magnetic Curses]

The bottom line is the pickings are pretty damn slim for the future at 1B. Now granted, you don't have to have elite production out of 1B if you're getting it elsewhere. Anyway, a few other names I could see hitting the market within a year, if they're not already would be Daniel Murphy(supposedly is now) Michael Morse, Billy Butler, Matt LaPorta, Brandon Belt, and Justin Morneau.

 

pretty underwhelming group right there

[SouthSideRyan]

The bottom line is the pickings are pretty damn slim for the future at 1B. Now granted, you don't have to have elite production out of 1B if you're getting it elsewhere. Anyway, a few other names I could see hitting the market within a year, if they're not already would be Daniel Murphy(supposedly is now) Michael Morse, Billy Butler, Matt LaPorta, Brandon Belt, and Justin Morneau.

 

pretty underwhelming group right there

 

Who would only become available if they remain underwhelming.

[davell]

The bottom line is the pickings are pretty damn slim for the future at 1B. Now granted, you don't have to have elite production out of 1B if you're getting it elsewhere. Anyway, a few other names I could see hitting the market within a year, if they're not already would be Daniel Murphy(supposedly is now) Michael Morse, Billy Butler, Matt LaPorta, Brandon Belt, and Justin Morneau.

 

pretty underwhelming group right there

 

Yep. Along with the guys Rob mentioned, this is basically it for this year and maybe even the few seasons after. Montero is a possibility, I suppose, but I really see him DHing for NY. So, while it's POSSIBLE to get bigtime production elsewhere, that's not coming through FA either this year or next. So, you have to find an elite bat to trade for, when we truly don't have the pieces to go get one AND have anything left in the farm.

 

It's just going to be extremely hard finding bigtime bats. I say go ahead and overpay Fielder. We can easily surround him with enough over the next year and next offseason, to where we should get 3-4 years of borderline elite production out of him and inside the next contending window we open. At that point, the system's in better shape, maybe Vogelbach is ready, or maybe we've gotten bigtime production elsewhere by then.

 

To me, it's a risk to sign Fielder to more than 5-6 years, but I'm OK with it. Because I just don't see finding elite hitters to be all that easy over the next several years.

[Gilby]

People are trying too hard to focus on specific names. Guys will become available, and fortunately there are a lot of good hitters that play 1B.

 

And heck, Barton put up a 5 win season in 2010.

[jersey cubs fan]

People are trying too hard to focus on specific names. Guys will become available, and fortunately there are a lot of good hitters that play 1B.

 

Yeah, guys. Most of them will be just that, guys. Not particularly good players or anybody you actually want to pay 1B for you, just guys.

[Little Slide Rooter]

FREE AGENCY ISN'T THE ONLY WAY TO ACQUIRE PLAYERS

 

 

It is when your stated goal is to acquire assets. In trades you relinquish assets, and presumably your younger, more valuable to the long-term stability of the franchise ones, at that.

 

Correct. I we want to acquire someone like Danks, Shields, Gio, etc. it will be very costly, and yes it improves the current team, but you've weakened the farm system.You can then hit the international FA market and draft more guys, but then you're back to the craps table.

 

Baseballs most successful teams in recent years have been the Yankees, Red Sox, Philies, and Rangers who have built with the combination of free agents, trades and the farm system.

[Guest]

 

I guess what it comes down to is that I understand the concerns about Fielders build and I understood the questions about Pujols age, but if we're going to operate like a big market team we can't jut sit around and wait for that perfect 27 year old specimen to pop up and keep picking up placeholders and high ceiling guys in between. Our farm system currently doesn't have anything with elite potential so eventually we'll have to start spending and/or trading and this is the time to start, especially when we can fill an existing hole.

 

My concerns aren't as much about Fielder's build going forward (although it is a concern when you consider the following) as they are about the fact that even up until now, he hasn't been THAT good of a player.

[Guest]

You don't really need elite bats to have a good offense... you just need a good approach up and down and a lineup that generally gets on base and hits for a little bit of power. 08 Cubs are the example of what I'd ultimately like to have. A lineup with 7-8 hitters with a good approach, ability to get on base, and not completely devoid of power. If 1-2 of those guys happen to be elite hitters, all the better.

 

I'm not saying an awesome .950+ OPS guy doesn't help a lot, but just having solid bats through most of your lineup will go a very long way. Long at bats wear a pitcher out, and guys getting on base consistently is going to lead to lots of runs, regardless of whether or not you have a couple of guys slugging in the upper .500s or something.

 

Obviously, that's not easy to put together either...and the margin for error is greater with an awesome hitter or two.

 

I have no idea what the point of this post was...Yes, we're much better off with Prince than one of the scrubs out there, but if we can get better bang for our buck at 1B (whether it be via FA or trade) and use those resources to improve in other areas, that'd be good too. It's not that hard to find adequate hitting at 1B, after all.

[jersey cubs fan]

You don't really need elite bats to have a good offense... you just need a good approach up and down and a lineup that generally gets on base and hits for a little bit of power. 08 Cubs are the example of what I'd ultimately like to have. A lineup with 7-8 hitters with a good approach, ability to get on base, and not completely devoid of power. If 1-2 of those guys happen to be elite hitters, all the better.

 

I'm not saying an awesome .950+ OPS guy doesn't help a lot, but just having solid bats through most of your lineup will go a very long way.

 

Obviously, that's not easy to put together either...and the margin for error is greater with an awesome hitter or two.

 

I have no idea what the point of this post was...

 

The 2008 Cubs had elite catcher, 2B and CF production, plus very good 1B, 3B and LF production. They also had Dempster at his best, very good Zambrano and Lilly and half a season of a sick Rich Harden. Pitching aside, that offense had, at its weakest spot, a guy who posted a .360 OBP. They were solid top to bottom, with no black holes, and several very good bats. It's extremely difficult to pull that off just making the sort of tweaks the Cubs have made so far or the type of non-tender value acquisitions so many people here apparently prefer. They had Lee, Ramirez, DeRosa/Fontenot, Soto and Soriano already in the system and really only added Fukudome and Edmonds. The Cubs don't have anything close to that core already in place, and I highly doubt they find an Edmonds stand-in, although yes, they did acquire a Fukudome clone.

You need a lot more than just a good approach. You need productive hitters. The 2008 Cubs had many of them, the 2011/12 offseason Cubs have very little of them.

[Guest]

You don't really need elite bats to have a good offense... you just need a good approach up and down and a lineup that generally gets on base and hits for a little bit of power. 08 Cubs are the example of what I'd ultimately like to have. A lineup with 7-8 hitters with a good approach, ability to get on base, and not completely devoid of power. If 1-2 of those guys happen to be elite hitters, all the better.

 

I'm not saying an awesome .950+ OPS guy doesn't help a lot, but just having solid bats through most of your lineup will go a very long way.

 

Obviously, that's not easy to put together either...and the margin for error is greater with an awesome hitter or two.

 

I have no idea what the point of this post was...

 

The 2008 Cubs had elite catcher, 2B and CF production, plus very good 1B, 3B and LF production. They also had Dempster at his best, very good Zambrano and Lilly and half a season of a sick Rich Harden. Pitching aside, that offense had, at its weakest spot, a guy who posted a .360 OBP. They were solid top to bottom, with no black holes, and several very good bats. It's extremely difficult to pull that off just making the sort of tweaks the Cubs have made so far or the type of non-tender value acquisitions so many people here apparently prefer. They had Lee, Ramirez, DeRosa/Fontenot, Soto and Soriano already in the system and really only added Fukudome and Edmonds. The Cubs don't have anything close to that core already in place, and I highly doubt they find an Edmonds stand-in, although yes, they did acquire a Fukudome clone.

You need a lot more than just a good approach. You need productive hitters. The 2008 Cubs had many of them, the 2011/12 offseason Cubs have very little of them.

 

Yes, and because of the elite performances out of C, 2B, and CF, that was the best offense in baseball. By a pretty good margin when you consider they're an NL team. There's still room to be good without being the best offense in baseball.

 

And I didn't say they just needed a good approach. And yes, it's hard to pull off. But that's what I ultimately want this team to be.

[Guest]

FREE AGENCY ISN'T THE ONLY WAY TO ACQUIRE PLAYERS

 

It is when your stated goal is to acquire assets.

 

Unequivocally wrong.

[jersey cubs fan]

And I didn't say they just needed a good approach. And yes, it's hard to pull off. But that's what I ultimately want this team to be.

 

So ultimately you accomplish something like that in 2016, in the meantime you don't try and emulated the Oakland Athletics and you absolutely acquire a real impact bat because you need it and can easily afford it.

[jersey cubs fan]

FREE AGENCY ISN'T THE ONLY WAY TO ACQUIRE PLAYERS

 

It is when your stated goal is to acquire assets.

 

Unequivocally wrong.

 

Maybe if we always have backtobanks working on the deals.

[mul21]

Everybody who is worried about overpaying for Fielder: what the hell do you expect? It's the nature of the beast. Instead of getting hung up on how many millions per WAR he's going to cost, you have to realize that you need that big bat in the middle of the lineup when the rest of it is so devoid of production. And to think you're going to pay market value per WAR for a guy as good as Fielder is just not realistic and it never has been for top end guys (outside of a hometown discount type situation, a la CJ).

 

If he ends up costing a couple million more than he's worth, who cares? The Cubs are a major market team with smart people in charge who will be able to work around the issue and they have plenty of money anyway. Sign him (obviously within reason) and be done with it. He solves a few problems and makes filling out the rest of the lineup a whole lot easier.

[Guest]

So trades are all zero sum outcomes with zero chance for arbitrage whatsoever? Come on. Even ignoring that fact, the value in the Cubs system is extremely middle heavy, and leveraging that averageness into some elite talent on the heels of an expensive draft spend and new management that will improve player development is a perfect use of resources. Especially relative to the logic of "he's a terrible investment for his contract length, but he's good now so we kinda have to spend on him". I'd use the McNutts, Szczurs, and Castillos of the system to get a very good player for several years(which in some cases would require an extension) without breaking a sweat.