Stewart/Dewitt swap?

[davell]

Maybe something like McNutt for Headley straight up. Or Vitters and Ha. Maybe Lake and Struck.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Maybe something like McNutt for Headley straight up. Or Vitters and Ha. Maybe Lake and Struck.

 

Lake+Struck I'd do in a hearbeat. However, that seems like a case of us overvaluing our own prospects and I don't know if Lake or Struck are really on anyones radar. That looks like more of an Ian Stewart package to me. While Lake did have a great stint in the AFL, he struggled the 2nd half of the regular season after being sent to AA. Vitters+Ha, probably, although like I've said I'd prefer use a band-aid this year and give Vitters a year in Iowa. Headley isn't a great fielder himself. He has a career -1.1 dWAR.

[davearm2]

IMO Headley is being pretty badly overvalued in here.

 

I've tinkered around with different methods to adjust for park factor and BABIP, and the numbers keep coming back showing he's a .680-.700 OPS guy under neutral conditions.

[SouthSideRyan]

Keep tinkering.

[rocket]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

[XZero771679666304]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

 

And 265 games is a pretty good sample size. You don't have to contrive numbers to quantify what's staring you in the face.

[Guest]

IMO Headley is being pretty badly overvalued in here.

 

I've tinkered around with different methods to adjust for park factor and BABIP, and the numbers keep coming back showing he's a .680-.700 OPS guy under neutral conditions.

 

Yes, then no.

[SouthSideRyan]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

 

All I had to do was look at his career numbers and see that he's never put up an OPS that low in a season with more than 21 PAs.

[rocket]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

 

All I had to do was look at his career numbers and see that he's never put up an OPS that low in a season with more than 21 PAs.

 

yeah but did you tinker with the park factors and babip?

[Guest]

Does anyone understand why the hell Khalil's road splits didn't translate when he got out of that hell hole?

[davearm2]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

On a .374 BABIP.

 

Do you expect he'll be able to sustain that going forward?

[Guest]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

On a .374 BABIP.

 

Do you expect he'll be able to sustain that going forward?

 

He has a .339 career BABIP in over 2100 plate appearances.

[SouthSideRyan]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

On a .374 BABIP.

 

Do you expect he'll be able to sustain that going forward?

 

He has a .339 career BABIP in over 2100 plate appearances.

 

pre or post-tinkering?

[davearm2]

all i had to do was look at his away splits for his career to see he has an .800 ops away from petco

On a .374 BABIP.

 

Do you expect he'll be able to sustain that going forward?

 

He has a .339 career BABIP in over 2100 plate appearances.

Yeah, thanks to a .374 BABIP on the road :banghead:

 

At home it's .297, or just about average for all MLBers.

[Guest]

Yeah, thanks to a .374 BABIP on the road :banghead:

 

At home it's .297, or just about average for all MLBers.

 

 

Wouldn't an overall average BABIP in an extreme pitchers park be a very good thing?

[Guest]

So your contention is that Headley is his normal self in Petco park, and then becomes some hyper-inflated version of himself in every other ballpark? What luck then, he should come to the Cubs, where he can spend 159 games a year as super-Headley!

[SouthSideRyan]

At home it's .297, or just about average for all MLBers.

 

Not for a guy with decent speed and a career LD% of 19.4

[davearm2]

Yeah, thanks to a .374 BABIP on the road :banghead:

 

At home it's .297, or just about average for all MLBers.

 

 

Wouldn't an overall average BABIP in an extreme pitchers park be a very good thing?

No. There's nothing intrinsic about PetCo that makes it harder to get a hit on a bap.

[Guest]

Yeah, thanks to a .374 BABIP on the road :banghead:

 

At home it's .297, or just about average for all MLBers.

 

 

Wouldn't an overall average BABIP in an extreme pitchers park be a very good thing?

No. There's nothing intrinsic about PetCo that makes it harder to get a hit on a bap.

 

 

uhhhhhh fly balls?

 

 

Fly balls are another story. Ballpark by ballpark, we see a huge range of BABIP, from Fenway Park's .257 (even higher when one considers Boston's .209 BABIP on fly balls defensively) to the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (seriously, is the "In Arlington" even needed?)'s .101 BABIP allowed (.124 Rangers team defense). As one would expect, the cavernous Safeco Field (.117, 6th in MLB) and Petco Park (.141, 9th in MLB) are well above average. The Metrodome had a .233 BABIP on fly balls, which when normalized compared to the Twins .191 BABIP means the Dome allowed a far above average percentage of fly ball base hits. Considering the baggy in right field, this is also no surprise.

 

http://www.twinkietown.com/2010/5/11/1467191/another-way-of-looking-at-babip

Edited December 5, 2011 by David

[mul21]

Does anyone understand why the hell Khalil's road splits didn't translate when he got out of that hell hole?

 

Mostly because he was bat crap crazy. Also, because he forgot how to hit a baseball.

[davearm2]

So your contention is that Headley is his normal self in Petco park, and then becomes some hyper-inflated version of himself in every other ballpark? What luck then, he should come to the Cubs, where he can spend 159 games a year as super-Headley!

My contention is that his road numbers are artificially inflated by an unsustainable BABIP, perpetuating a myth that he'll continue to be an .800 hitter outside of PetCo.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, thanks to a .374 BABIP on the road :banghead:

 

At home it's .297, or just about average for all MLBers.

 

 

Wouldn't an overall average BABIP in an extreme pitchers park be a very good thing?

No. There's nothing intrinsic about PetCo that makes it harder to get a hit on a bap.

 

 

uhhhhhh fly balls?

 

 

Fly balls are another story. Ballpark by ballpark, we see a huge range of BABIP, from Fenway Park's .257 (even higher when one considers Boston's .209 BABIP on fly balls defensively) to the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (seriously, is the "In Arlington" even needed?)'s .101 BABIP allowed (.124 Rangers team defense). As one would expect, the cavernous Safeco Field (.117, 6th in MLB) and Petco Park (.141, 9th in MLB) are well above average. The Metrodome had a .233 BABIP on fly balls, which when normalized compared to the Twins .191 BABIP means the Dome allowed a far above average percentage of fly ball base hits. Considering the baggy in right field, this is also no surprise.

 

http://www.twinkietown.com/2010/5/11/1467191/another-way-of-looking-at-babip

 

Foul territory as well.

[mul21]

So your contention is that Headley is his normal self in Petco park, and then becomes some hyper-inflated version of himself in every other ballpark? What luck then, he should come to the Cubs, where he can spend 159 games a year as super-Headley!

My contention is that his road numbers are artificially inflated by an unsustainable BABIP, perpetuating a myth that he'll continue to be an .800 hitter outside of PetCo.

 

Ok, but between your assertion that he'll be a .680-.700 OPS guy going forward and the fact that you don't seem to think PetCo could possibly cause a lower than normal babip for a guy, you have to understand why people are doubting you. I think there's a much better chance he's an .800 OPS guy going forward than he is a .700 OPS guy.

[Guest]

I don't understand how he could say there's nothing intrinsic about PetCo that would make it harder to get hits on balls in play when it's an extreme pitchers park. What the hell makes it a pitcher's park, then?

 

 

Pitchers just magically get more strikeouts there? Because if they're not making more outs on balls in play, those extra outs must be coming from somewhere...

[squally1313]

I guess I just don't understand how trading Garza is being tossed around because the pitching market is so barren this year that we could net a huge return, but people are also exploring getting Headley/Stewart when the third base market is just as bad.

 

I know our system isn't top of the line, but giving up 2 top ten prospects is a fairly decent amount. We've got more than one fringe-y prospects capable of playing the position (Vitters, DJ, Flaherty), and I don't know if I agree with not giving any of them a chance, especially in a year that (realistically) we've got a pretty slim chance of competing.

 

Why not hold on to the prospects, and let those few guys battle it out in spring training/early in the season. The difference between Headley and some combination of those three plus Baker for half a season is maybe a win and a half (probably less for Stewart). If June/July rolls around and we're in contention, then pull the trigger on getting a premiere guy. It's not like the demand for third basemen will be that much higher than it is now. If not....reassess who we have after the year, and if we're not satisfied, then you take another look around the trade market next winter, or look the free agents that might be available.

 

Reynolds might be out there, Wright has a club buyout (but who knows what will happen to him), and then a little outside the box, Kinsler and Cano both have club options for 2013, and Phillips might be available.

 

Summary: I love the idea of selling high, and if we could get a king's ransom for Garza, we should do it (and I trust Theo/Hoyer enough to make that decision). But trying to get an above average third baseman in this market is buying high, which I don't think we should be doing as currently constructed.