Trading Soriano

[KingCubsFan]

Do you see Brett Jackson starting out at AAA this year, even with a hot spring?

Absolutely. I can't imagine he's any different than Rizzo in Theo/Hoyer's eyes.

[davell]

Do you see Brett Jackson starting out at AAA this year, even with a hot spring?

Yeah, I think the plan will be to bring up him, Rizzo, Turner(if he's the Garza deal) about the time they sell off Dempster, Soto, Marmol or whoever. Plus, all those guys need a little more time as well. I think they want to give Sappelt and Campana some time, just to see if either of them could show enough to become a better trade chip than they currently are. If we sign Cespedes, I even think he'll get a month or two in AAA. This is audition time for Jed and Theo, in my opinion. Everyone gets some sort of shot, if they're young. Including the Sappelts and Campanas of the world.

[dew1679666265]

Campana is actually a decent candidate to sell high on sometime in the next year. He's never going to command much in a trade, but given his speed, base stealing ability, and (I'm assuming) general grittiness, he's exactly the type of guy an old school GM would see as having some level of value.

 

We're probably still only talking a C or C- prospect or two if he has a really hot first half, but that wouldn't be bad for a 5th OF.

[sneakypower]

Can I get an actual case for Sappelt being a substandard MLB starter, and not just the generic label?

 

Project his slash line, project his defense, and tell me where that would have ranked among MLB LF starters last year.

he only managed a .270/.325/.385 MLE in AAA, and even giving him +7 between defense & baserunning keeps him at "substandard" in a full season of PA

[KingCubsFan]

Campana is actually a decent candidate to sell high on sometime in the next year. He's never going to command much in a trade, but given his speed, base stealing ability, and (I'm assuming) general grittiness, he's exactly the type of guy an old school GM would see as having some level of value.

 

We're probably still only talking a C or C- prospect or two if he has a really hot first half, but that wouldn't be bad for a 5th OF.

I think he can actually be pretty useful as a 5th outfielder and pinch runner. Given that he has 70+ speed, and we wouldn't get someone with a plus tool back in the process, I'd just assume keep him and try to make him part of the next winning team.

[dew1679666265]

I think he can actually be pretty useful as a 5th outfielder and pinch runner. Given that he has 70+ speed, and we wouldn't get someone with a plus tool back in the process, I'd just assume keep him and try to make him part of the next winning team.

 

I'm fine with that too. I like Campana as a 5th OF as well and wouldn't be in any hurry to dump him, but he strikes me as a guy who we could give a few extra PAs to in a season where we're not contending anyway, see if he can get hot, and then see if a team will overvalue him.

 

It was primarily a thought in response to the thought that we shouldn't give Campana consistent playing time because his upside is what he is now - a nice 5th OF. While I don't think we should give him consistent playing, I think more playing time than you'd normally give a 5th OF would be fine.

[KingCubsFan]

I think he can actually be pretty useful as a 5th outfielder and pinch runner. Given that he has 70+ speed, and we wouldn't get someone with a plus tool back in the process, I'd just assume keep him and try to make him part of the next winning team.

 

I'm fine with that too. I like Campana as a 5th OF as well and wouldn't be in any hurry to dump him, but he strikes me as a guy who we could give a few extra PAs to in a season where we're not contending anyway, see if he can get hot, and then see if a team will overvalue him.

 

It was primarily a thought in response to the thought that we shouldn't give Campana consistent playing time because his upside is what he is now - a nice 5th OF. While I don't think we should give him consistent playing, I think more playing time than you'd normally give a 5th OF would be fine.

I could see giving him playing time to see if he could get hot. He's the type of guy who could put up some good numbers with an irregular BABIP. However, in the Cubs case, I'd rather give the playing time to the superior trading chip (Byrd) and the better prospects (Jackson and Sappelt).

[davell]

I want no part of having another one, but some teams still do.......What keeps Campana from turning in a Juan Pierre season, if given the at bats? Lesser hit tool, but better discipline. Hell, Pierre had some 3.5-4 WAR seasons. If he could put up a .270ish BA, the OBP and the steals would take care of themselves. Some team would fall in love with that, I would think. We certainly gave up enough for our "leadoff" hitter back in the day.

[dew1679666265]

I could see giving him playing time to see if he could get hot. He's the type of guy who could put up some good numbers with an irregular BABIP. However, in the Cubs case, I'd rather give the playing time to the superior trading chip (Byrd) and the better prospects (Jackson and Sappelt).

 

I agree don't bench Byrd for him, but there's a very real chance Byrd is dealt before the season starts (I kind of expect him to be). I'm also working under the assumption that Jackson won't start the season in the majors and may well be in the minors for a significant portion of the season. On Sappelt, I'm not convinced he's more than a good 4th OF long term and that's kind of what he already is, so I wouldn't pine too much over splitting PAs between Sappelt and Campana (i.e. an OF of Soriano/Sappelt-Campana/DeJesus or Sappelt-Campana/Byrd/DeJesus).

[CubColtPacer]

I want no part of having another one, but some teams still do.......What keeps Campana from turning in a Juan Pierre season, if given the at bats? Lesser hit tool, but better discipline. Hell, Pierre had some 3.5-4 WAR seasons. If he could put up a .270ish BA, the OBP and the steals would take care of themselves. Some team would fall in love with that, I would think. We certainly gave up enough for our "leadoff" hitter back in the day.

 

A huge difference in their hit tool. Pierre has a career 5.7% strikeout rate and was at 4.7 during his two best years. Campana strikes out 17.3% of the time in the minors and 19.4% of the time in the majors last year. Campana's walk percentage is a decent bit better, but it just doesn't come close to making up for the difference in strikeout percentage. Pierre is a career 1:1 BB/K ratio, while Campana was a 1:2 ratio in the minors. And as horrible as Pierre's power is, it's still a little better than Campana's.

 

Campana's speed and defense might be so elite though that he could be a legitimate starting center fielder or at least a good 4th OF in a big ballpark even with his horrific bat. Or he could be used to try to let RF/LF be used for players with little range. Neither of those seem to describe the Cubs going forward, so it doesn't seem likely that he's a fit. And the speed/defense is still a question if it's simply great or if it's truly elite.

[SouthSideRyan]

Campana needs to start bunting in half of his at bats

[Rob]

Campana needs to start bunting in half of his at bats

 

I'd support a policy of crouching real low and leaning way out over the plate.

[SouthSideRyan]

Campana needs to start bunting in half of his at bats

 

I'd support a policy of crouching real low and leaning way out over the plate.

 

Greenberg'd

[Abe Frohman]

Campana may hit like s$*#, but he runs like Mays.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Can I get an actual case for Sappelt being a substandard MLB starter, and not just the generic label?

 

Project his slash line, project his defense, and tell me where that would have ranked among MLB LF starters last year.

he only managed a .270/.325/.385 MLE in AAA, and even giving him +7 between defense & baserunning keeps him at "substandard" in a full season of PA

 

MLB LFer hit .255/320/408 last year, so that wouldn't exactly leave him wildly trailing offensively.

 

Going with 270/325/385, the closest comp I can find last season would have been Juan Rivera: 258/319/382 in 132 games.

 

Take out Rivera's baserunning and defense and plugging in a +7 for Sappelt and prorate it out to 150 games, and you get 1.7 fWAR. That would have placed him 10th among qualified LFers last year.

 

I know it's semantics because even at 10th among qualified LFers, nobody's getting geeked about a 1.7 fWAR. But given that Soriano is deep into his decline phase and gave us 1.3 fWAR last season, and that Sappelt has some upside given his age, I see no reason not to give him the LF job and be comfortable with it for 2012.

[jersey cubs fan]

Can I get an actual case for Sappelt being a substandard MLB starter, and not just the generic label?

 

Project his slash line, project his defense, and tell me where that would have ranked among MLB LF starters last year.

he only managed a .270/.325/.385 MLE in AAA, and even giving him +7 between defense & baserunning keeps him at "substandard" in a full season of PA

 

MLB LFer hit .255/320/408 last year, so that wouldn't exactly leave him wildly trailing offensively.

 

Going with 270/325/385, the closest comp I can find last season would have been Juan Rivera: 258/319/382 in 132 games.

 

Take out Rivera's baserunning and defense and plugging in a +7 for Sappelt and prorate it out to 150 games, and you get 1.7 fWAR. That would have placed him 10th among qualified LFers last year.

 

I know it's semantics because even at 10th among qualified LFers, nobody's getting geeked about a 1.7 fWAR. But given that Soriano is deep into his decline phase and gave us 1.3 fWAR last season, and that Sappelt has some upside given his age, I see no reason not to give him the LF job and be comfortable with it for 2012.

 

A lot of people play LF in MLB, being a little below average compared to all of them isn't good.

 

I think you need to stop obsessing over the idea of justifying not good players getting playing time and start thinking more about what players will be good. Not sucking isn't a goal.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think you need to stop obsessing over the idea of justifying not good players getting playing time and start thinking more about what players will be good. Not sucking isn't a goal.

 

Castro will be good. Rizzo will be good. Jackson might be good.

 

In the meantime, we need people to fill in the other spots.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think you need to stop obsessing over the idea of justifying not good players getting playing time and start thinking more about what players will be good. Not sucking isn't a goal.

 

Castro will be good. Rizzo will be good. Jackson might be good.

 

In the meantime, we need people to fill in the other spots.

 

So stop obsessing over meantime fill-ins.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So stop obsessing over meantime fill-ins.

 

No.

[CincyCubsFan]

So the general agreement is that Sappelt will be either mediocre, slightly better than mediocre, or slightly worse than mediocre?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So the general agreement is that Sappelt will be either mediocre, slightly better than mediocre, or slightly worse than mediocre?

 

Depends on what you mean by "mediocre," "slightly," "better" and "worse."

[jersey cubs fan]

So the general agreement is that Sappelt will be either mediocre, slightly better than mediocre, or slightly worse than mediocre?

 

Depends on what you mean by "mediocre," "slightly," "better" and "worse."

 

don't forget "is".

[ozzzie19]

94 qualified pitchers last year. Had he qualified and somehow kept the same numbers,

 

His SIERA would've ranked 87th. His xFIP would've ranked 90th. tERA would've been 80th.

 

Even FIP only comes in tied for 62nd.

 

That sounds about right to me.

 

Being the 87th, 90th, 80th or 62nd best starting pitcher is right exactly where I was placing him: A solid No. 3 starter.

 

Using "qualified" usually undersells a player (and yes, I did it too with LFers earlier) because the bad players don't play enough to be qualified.

 

Over the course of 2010-2011 there were 134 starters who pitched >200 innings (combined). Wood's xFIP was 114 out of those 134, putting him at a middle of the road 4th starter, which is what he is (or rather, what he has been).

 

Theres nothing wrong with trading nothing (which is what Marshall is on a non-competitive team,considering the new draft pick compensation rules), for Wood. However, theres a decent chance that he'll be non-tendered at some point* (ie he will be getting paid through arbi more than hes worth). He could also improve into a solid starter and outproduce his salary and thats a gamble worth taking when you are giving up nothing.

 

*some point is the new "wait till next year"

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fangraphs has him 104th out of 139 pitchers who fit that standard.

 

Meanwhile, xFIP robs him of his HR-controlling ability, which he displayed in the minors as well. It's too early to say for sure, but I'm betting on him outperforming his xFIP pretty consistently for his career. Using straight FIP instead of xFIP puts him at 84th out of 139.

 

Even if he is a "solid No. 4" starter and no more, he's still going to outperform his arbitration values by a rather large amount. Unless he gets hurt or seriously underperforms, he's not in any danger of being non-tendered.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Well damn...

 

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS

according to #cubs person, likely they start year with soriano in left field. should be in AL, but big $ to work out

 

assuming that #cubs person suggests someone in the Cubs front office, I'd take this with a grain of salt. He's not going to say no, Soriano will be gone at all costs-if nobody offers us anything we'll cut him and someone can have him for free.