BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[Guest]

Is Rizzo the opening day 1st baseman for Chicago Cubs?

 

No.

LaHair?

 

They've made that statement a few times now. My guess is unless he bombs miserably in the spring he will be the opening day starter.

 

I don't think they'll be starting Rizzo anywhere but AAA, regardless of what LaHair does in the spring. Hoyer came out and said that he made a mistake calling up Rizzo so soon and that spring wouldn't change his stance on Rizzo starting in AAA.

 

 

I'd imagine he stays there however long it needs to be to push his clock back one year.

[jersey cubs fan]

Is Rizzo the opening day 1st baseman for Chicago Cubs?

 

No.

LaHair?

 

They've made that statement a few times now. My guess is unless he bombs miserably in the spring he will be the opening day starter.

 

I don't think they'll be starting Rizzo anywhere but AAA, regardless of what LaHair does in the spring. Hoyer came out and said that he made a mistake calling up Rizzo so soon and that spring wouldn't change his stance on Rizzo starting in AAA.

 

 

I'd imagine he stays there however long it needs to be to push his clock back one year.

 

That has been my assumption as well. I was talking about LaHair though. I guess if he's just beyond awful you could see some other fill-in at the position. But it's his for now.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I havn't seen this posted yet, but according to MLB.coms prospect rankings, we have Brett Jackson(33), Anthony Rizzo(37), and Javier Baez(62). Not too shabby. It's been a while since we had 3 in the top 100, 2 in the top 50.

[toonsterwu]

I think the placement of the Cubs on Mayo's list was fine, although the list itself was certainly an interesting read. I actually don't mind Banuelos at 13 as much as many seem to have an issue with - it is a bit high, but the upside for Baneulos, power lefty with 3 potentially plus pitches, is so good, and he doesn't need elite control with that stuff, just decent.

[sneakypower]

I havn't seen this posted yet, but according to MLB.coms prospect rankings, we have Brett Jackson(33), Anthony Rizzo(37), and Javier Baez(62). Not too shabby. It's been a while since we had 3 in the top 100, 2 in the top 50.

it's been two years, and one year.

[Guest]

Got my BA Prospect Handbook yesterday:

 

1. OF Brett Jackson

2. SS Javier Baez

3. OF Matt Szczur

4. RHP Trey McNutt

5. RHP Dillon Maples

6. C Welington Castillo

7. RHP Rafael Dolis

8. SS Junior Lake

9. 3B/1B Josh Vitters

10. 1B Dan Vogelbach

11. RHP Dae-Eun Rhee

12. RHP Dallas Beeler

13. RHP Chris Carpenter

14. 2B Zeke DeVoss

15. RHP Tony Zych

16. SS/2B Marco Hernandez

17. OF Reggie Golden

18. OF Jae-Hoon Ha

19. RHP Robert Whitenack

20. 3B Jeimer Candelario

21. C Steve Clevenger

22. RHP Jose Rosari

23. 2B/SS/OF Logan Watkins

24. LHP Jeff Beliveau

25. RHP Ben Wells

26. RHP Marcus Hatley

27. RHP Casey Weathers

28. OF Taiwan Easterling

29. RHP Hayden Simpson

30. OF Shawon Dunston Jr.

31. OF Pin-Chieh Chen

 

Cubs Prospects on Other Teams' Lists:

 

Cincinnati Reds:

 

13. 2B Ronald Torreyes

16. OF Dave Sappelt

 

San Diego Padres:

 

1. 1B Anthony Rizzo

31. RHP Zach Cates

[Guest]

Also, here are the Cubs in the 4 BA editors' top 50 prospects:

 

Jim Callis:

 

28. OF Brett Jackson

31. SS Javier Baez

42. 1B Anthony Rizzo

 

J.J. Cooper:

 

40. OF Brett Jackson

 

Will Lingo:

 

33. OF Brett Jackson

40. 1B Anthony Rizzo

 

John Manuel:

 

38. OF Brett Jackson

49. OF Matt Szczur

[toonsterwu]

I'm mildly surprised Rizzo only made two of those four lists. I'm stunned Manuel thinks that highly of Szczur.

 

Somewhat surprised Weathers cracked a top 30 list for us, but I guess there's still some intrigue there. Also somewhat surprised Hatley cracked the top 30. A bit stunned that Clevenger came in at 21 ... and I thought I had irrationally high interest in him.

[davell]

Haltey getting to pitch in AFL probably helped his cause. Clevenger doesn't surprise me, because while his ceiling is pretty low, his floor is almost the exact same: backup catcher. Plus, I think BA puts a lot of credence in guys at the higher levels. Along with big signing bonuses. I was a little surprised Malave didn't make the list, just because of the bonus. Interesting list, but not anything close to what any of us will probably have.

[toonsterwu]

Assuming the list was made with the usual "Cubs sources" giving them input (and then they sort through it), it might speak to the organization still having some decent hope for someone like Logan Watkins. He did have a couple good summer months there, so maybe they believe he's found some sort of switch offensively.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Got my BA Prospect Handbook yesterday:

 

1. OF Brett Jackson

2. SS Javier Baez

3. OF Matt Szczur

4. RHP Trey McNutt

5. RHP Dillon Maples

6. C Welington Castillo

7. RHP Rafael Dolis

8. SS Junior Lake

9. 3B/1B Josh Vitters

10. 1B Dan Vogelbach

11. RHP Dae-Eun Rhee

12. RHP Dallas Beeler

13. RHP Chris Carpenter

14. 2B Zeke DeVoss

15. RHP Tony Zych

16. SS/2B Marco Hernandez

17. OF Reggie Golden

18. OF Jae-Hoon Ha

19. RHP Robert Whitenack

20. 3B Jeimer Candelario

21. C Steve Clevenger

22. RHP Jose Rosari

23. 2B/SS/OF Logan Watkins

24. LHP Jeff Beliveau

25. RHP Ben Wells

26. RHP Marcus Hatley

27. RHP Casey Weathers

28. OF Taiwan Easterling

29. RHP Hayden Simpson

30. OF Shawon Dunston Jr.

31. OF Pin-Chieh Chen

 

Cubs Prospects on Other Teams' Lists:

 

Cincinnati Reds:

 

13. 2B Ronald Torreyes

16. OF Dave Sappelt

 

San Diego Padres:

 

1. 1B Anthony Rizzo

31. RHP Zach Cates

 

Reading this list I see why BA is pretty high on the system. Alls I sees is upside up and down, with a blend of guys who'll make it to the show (still).

 

Even before Theo the system was on the way up, but he's pushed things forward a little. There's still plenty of gains to be made too.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Got my BA Prospect Handbook yesterday:

 

1. OF Brett Jackson

2. SS Javier Baez

3. OF Matt Szczur

4. RHP Trey McNutt

5. RHP Dillon Maples

6. C Welington Castillo

7. RHP Rafael Dolis

8. SS Junior Lake

9. 3B/1B Josh Vitters

10. 1B Dan Vogelbach

11. RHP Dae-Eun Rhee

12. RHP Dallas Beeler

13. RHP Chris Carpenter

14. 2B Zeke DeVoss

15. RHP Tony Zych

16. SS/2B Marco Hernandez

17. OF Reggie Golden

18. OF Jae-Hoon Ha

19. RHP Robert Whitenack

20. 3B Jeimer Candelario

21. C Steve Clevenger

22. RHP Jose Rosari

23. 2B/SS/OF Logan Watkins

24. LHP Jeff Beliveau

25. RHP Ben Wells

26. RHP Marcus Hatley

27. RHP Casey Weathers

28. OF Taiwan Easterling

29. RHP Hayden Simpson

30. OF Shawon Dunston Jr.

31. OF Pin-Chieh Chen

 

Cubs Prospects on Other Teams' Lists:

 

Cincinnati Reds:

 

13. 2B Ronald Torreyes

16. OF Dave Sappelt

 

San Diego Padres:

 

1. 1B Anthony Rizzo

31. RHP Zach Cates

 

Am I the only one surprised by the ommission of Nick Struck? He's 22 and held his own in A+ and AA, though he did struggle through AAA.

[davell]

Project Prospect released their top 100 list and it's interesting, to say the least. Brett at 41, Rizzo at 47.......Nothing earth shatering. Baez at 92? Still, not a huge surprise. Ronald Torreyes at 75 and Welington Castillo at 91? Shocked. Granted, not a fan of PP honestly, but I had to list this, mostly because I'm already a huge Torreyes fan and think he'll actually be in that range on most lists this time next year.

[Outshined_One]

Alright, so where does Concepcion rank now that the Cubs have signed him?

[Splendid Splinter]

Alright, so where does Concepcion rank now that the Cubs have signed him?

 

Goldstein said #6...

[toonsterwu]

My guess is that Concepcion comes in in the 7/8 spot on the BA list. I'd probably put him behind Dillon Maples personally, so ... for me, at best, probably borderline top 10, but really, we sort of have to wait and see what we really have with the guy, since there seems to be slightly differing reports out there about him. Could see a case for him as high as 5 if the ceiling is as good as some suggest.

 

Makes me think of the Jin-Yeong Kim signing. A high dollar signing of a polished kid whose ceiling was questionable, but had youth on his side. Here's hoping this one starts better than the Kim signing, particularly since it's a Major League deal.

[Guest]

Steve Carter of Project Prospect ranked 25 of his favorite prospects into groups of upside. Several Cubs show up under "Long Term Regular Upside", which followed "MVP Upside" and "All-Star Upside":

 

Ronald Torreyes, 2B CHC - ‘The Little Hit Tool That Does,’ does nothing but rake. Small and lacking great overall tools, Torreyes will have to max out his ability with the bat to provide good value. If he adds strength and picks up some gap power, his hittability (it’s a word) would play up even more.

 

Josh Vitters, 3B CHC - The hit tool, the hands, the bat speed, it’s all there. What’s not is an approach that allows a consistent application. If you watched just Vitters best swings and you'd wonder how he ever gets out. But when you watch some extended at-bats, you see the approach issues. A teaser prospect, Vitters needs to change his approach and if he does, you might see some rockets at Wrigley.

 

Brett Jackson, CF CHC - No plus tools, but a number of above-average ones, some quick twitch and a hard-nosed ‘hair on fire’ style of play make him very fun to watch. A loop in his swing will lead to him racking up some strikeouts, but the approach is solid and possible 20-20 ability is there.

 

And under honorable mention for the whole article:

 

Dan Vogelbach, 1B CHC - LOL level raw power.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

My guess is that Concepcion comes in in the 7/8 spot on the BA list. I'd probably put him behind Dillon Maples personally, so ... for me, at best, probably borderline top 10, but really, we sort of have to wait and see what we really have with the guy, since there seems to be slightly differing reports out there about him. Could see a case for him as high as 5 if the ceiling is as good as some suggest.

 

Makes me think of the Jin-Yeong Kim signing. A high dollar signing of a polished kid whose ceiling was questionable, but had youth on his side. Here's hoping this one starts better than the Kim signing, particularly since it's a Major League deal.

 

Handedness and level of competition alone make this a better signing than Kim...Though I guess it's balanced by dollar and roster commitment.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Steve Carter of Project Prospect ranked 25 of his favorite prospects into groups of upside. Several Cubs show up under "Long Term Regular Upside", which followed "MVP Upside" and "All-Star Upside":

 

Ronald Torreyes, 2B CHC - ‘The Little Hit Tool That Does,’ does nothing but rake. Small and lacking great overall tools, Torreyes will have to max out his ability with the bat to provide good value. If he adds strength and picks up some gap power, his hittability (it’s a word) would play up even more.

 

Josh Vitters, 3B CHC - The hit tool, the hands, the bat speed, it’s all there. What’s not is an approach that allows a consistent application. If you watched just Vitters best swings and you'd wonder how he ever gets out. But when you watch some extended at-bats, you see the approach issues. A teaser prospect, Vitters needs to change his approach and if he does, you might see some rockets at Wrigley.

 

Brett Jackson, CF CHC - No plus tools, but a number of above-average ones, some quick twitch and a hard-nosed ‘hair on fire’ style of play make him very fun to watch. A loop in his swing will lead to him racking up some strikeouts, but the approach is solid and possible 20-20 ability is there.

 

And under honorable mention for the whole article:

 

Dan Vogelbach, 1B CHC - LOL level raw power.

 

2012 is the year to hop back on the Vitters bandwagon. Good things a'comin.

[craig]

My guess is that Concepcion comes in in the 7/8 spot on the BA list. I'd probably put him behind Dillon Maples personally, so ... for me, at best, probably borderline top 10, but really, we sort of have to wait and see what we really have with the guy, since there seems to be slightly differing reports out there about him. Could see a case for him as high as 5 if the ceiling is as good as some suggest.....

 

I think right in the Maples ballpark is appropriate. I'd maybe put him ahead of Maples. Right now he's perhaps just as fast and perhaps has better control, while being lefty. A teenage lefty who can sustain 91-93 and hit 96 on his last pitches of a 70-pitch tryout sounds fast enough.

[davell]

96? I haven't seen that anywhere. I've heard 86-92, depending on when it was. I'll say this about Concepcion: Whether Goldstein, Badler, or whoever else thinks he's a 4/5 is irrelevant, because it's quite obvious we see him as potentially more than that or else we wouldn't have given him this kind of cash. No idea where I'd put him in my top 30, waiting til offseason's completely over since I still think we'll see more trades or IFA signings anyway, but I guess I'd almost have to put him somewhere in the top 10 for sure.

[toonsterwu]

It really comes down to what reports are accurate, so I tend to be wary of going to high on him to start, but sure, if he's the low 90's guy who can hit mid-90's that craig is talking about, then yeah, I'd put him ahead of Maples and in that 5-7 range (I like my top 4 enough to not have him pass any of those guys). But BaseballAmerica seems fairly adamant that he's a low 90's guy who sits often in the high 80's. If that's a case, then projection becomes a big factor and it'd be hard for me to put him anywhere above borderline top 10, particularly since BA seems to heavily push that end of the rotation starter ceiling idea.

 

I'm also wary of reports on plus breaking stuff based on adventures abroad. I want to see that before I buy it. Too often, there are youngsters with reported borderline plus secondary stuff from Latin America that turn out with less.

[craig]

It really comes down to what reports are accurate, so I tend to be wary of going to high on him to start, but sure, if he's the low 90's guy who can hit mid-90's that craig is talking about, then yeah, I'd put him ahead of Maples and in that 5-7 range (I like my top 4 enough to not have him pass any of those guys). But BaseballAmerica seems fairly adamant that he's a low 90's guy who sits often in the high 80's. If that's a case, then projection becomes a big factor and it'd be hard for me to put him anywhere above borderline top 10, particularly since BA seems to heavily push that end of the rotation starter ceiling idea.

 

I'm also wary of reports on plus breaking stuff based on adventures abroad. I want to see that before I buy it. Too often, there are youngsters with reported borderline plus secondary stuff from Latin America that turn out with less.

 

Absolutely. These things come down to scouting. I'm not sure where the scouting data is coming from. But the Cubs have been scouting him repeatedly over the last couple of months, so they've got current info on his size, height, velocity, etc.. If BA is getting inside dope from teams who have been scouting him this winter, those scouts are telling him different stuff than what the Cub scouts are thinking. It's perhaps as likely that they are getting input from scouts who saw him a season ago. It's not uncommon that between December of 2010 and January of 2012, a teenager has gotten stronger and faster. So what may have been projection then, maybe it's been realized to some degree by the event of the Cubs recent views.

 

Of course, it could also be that what he was throwing in real games in Cuba as a 17/18-year old is also different than what he's doing now as an 19 or maybe 18-year-old. If I'm pitching every week, and pitching for outs and location, that's one thing. Maybe if I'm pitching once every three weeks for scouts, my arm is never tired and I'm throwing harder to tickle the radar guns than to actually get hitters out. So maybe he's hitting 96 now in a showcase, but if he's pitching every five days against hitters he'll be right back down to working at 88-91 and touching 93. Who knows.

 

But, I think all of that applies to Maples, too. I don't know how fast he'll actually be when he's trying to find the strike zone and he's racking up pitches over a full season.

 

Anyway, as Dave noted, I think the very size of the contract offer and the 40-man roster deal provides pretty good evidence that, while they may be off their rockers, the Cubs see something more than fringy 5th-starter stuff. I think the offer itself is evidence that the Cubs reports might not jive with what BA has been telling. Not that differing from BA means that McLeod is right and BA's sources are wrong.

[toonsterwu]

Maples was roughly the same guy he was purported to be, per my best recollection from instruct reports (too lazy to go check them out right now), low 90's that occasionally touched higher, but had issues with consistency on command and breaking stuff. I've probably got Maples a bit lower than most, though.

[videographer]

I think we are getting ahead of ourselves in projecting Concepcion. I am going to take a step back and review what I have read about him.

 

1. He pitched in Cuba's highest league as a teenager.

2. He took a regular turn in the rotation and found success in a strong hitter's league.

3. He is a fairly tall left-hander with a projectable body.

4. Although he doesn't throw mid-90s heat, his fastball (last year) was better than what is considered a soft-tossing lefty.

5. Reports have stated that he has shown pitching savvy. Reports on Chapman was just the opposite, his feel for pitching was suspect and his success was spotty depending on how his FB was working during any given start.

6. He has pitched very little since ending his Cuban league season early last summer.

7. He will be new to the American way of living which may cause a culture shock that stunts his maturation.

8. Castro era Cuban players do not have a long track record of success in MLB.

9. He may be older than his stated age, although Cuban players have fairly good "age" documents for scouts to cross reference.

10. He is considered the 3rd best unsigned Cuban player available and rates as a MLB prospect, unlike several others that are available.

 

What interests me the most about Concepcion is his early success against older competition. A very good indicator of a player's potential is early success. If you look at minor league stats of quality ML players, most have had early success. Zambrano was very effective as a 17 year old in the Midwest League. Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer dominated the Midwest League as teenagers. The light can turn on later for some quality ML players, but early success by young players (for their league) shines big league potential more often than not.

 

Finally, I have a hunch that the contract Concepcion received was a "show" to Soler and Cespedes that the Cubs are serious about wanting their talents and are not afraid of the spotty track record of past Cuban players.

 

I would rather have a $7m/4yr/40-man roster Concepcion than not have him. And the Cubs are not going to spend that kind of money on a player they don't think is top 10 prospect material.