BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[davell]

How about comeback guys? Obviously Hayden Simpson would be at the top of the list, but who else? Robinson Lopez and Michael Burgess seem like 2 candidates to me.

[toonsterwu]

How about comeback guys? Obviously Hayden Simpson would be at the top of the list, but who else? Robinson Lopez and Michael Burgess seem like 2 candidates to me.

 

I've never been big on Robinson Lopez or Michael Burgess. Burgess is more a case of seeing him enough and just not buying that he can put it together. Lopez is more a case where, sure, great fastball, but I never saw the intrigue beyond that (granted, that, in of itself, is intriguing).

 

I can't think of who else would fit for comeback right now. I should've put in Kyler Burke as a possible breakout and sleeper. Goofed and completely forgot.

[davell]

With the sad state of our pitching in the minors, I actually think Burke has more upside than anyone, if it all comes together. Very high ceiling, very low floor. But, if he has things working, I could see him getting all the way to Tennessee this year.

[toonsterwu]

If they fast-track him as a pen arm, wouldn't surprise me if he saw Iowa this year, but that assumes a lot goes well. I'd love to see them at least give him a look as a starter, though.

[davell]

I think AZPhil said at some point that they'll give him a shot as a starter, because of how dominant he's looked and how quickly he regained everything.

[toonsterwu]

Here's a simple question that can be asked of anyone, as nsbb loosely gears up for a list- is there any opposition to Brett Jackson as the top prospect this year? I get the feeling that the majority of folks will have Jackson/Baez as the top two, and so far, most pubs are putting them in that order, but Marc Hulet did argue for Baez ahead of Jackson. Is there any other candidate that threatens those two in anyone's minds?

[Rob]

Here's a simple question that can be asked of anyone, as nsbb loosely gears up for a list- is there any opposition to Brett Jackson as the top prospect this year? I get the feeling that the majority of folks will have Jackson/Baez as the top two, and so far, most pubs are putting them in that order, but Marc Hulet did argue for Baez ahead of Jackson. Is there any other candidate that threatens those two in anyone's minds?

 

Of the guys already in the system, I think those two are the only ones with a good case for the #1 ranking. But if we acquire a Jacob Turner or Jesus Montero in a Garza deal that could change in a hurry. Same for Rizzo, if he still qualifies as a prospect.

[toonsterwu]

Technically, I don't think Rizzo is a rookie anymore, as he passed the AB limit (I think), but I think most lists are counting him as a prospect. BA certainly did.

 

Just speaking hypothetically out of tiredness right now - Turner/Montero easily top BJax for me. I'm not so sure Banuelos would, though. Let's see, Smyly wouldn't for me. Oh, I wouldn't put Rizzo ahead of BJax, for roughly the same reasons I argued against a BJax/Rizzo straight up trade - I don't buy Rizzo as a significantly better bat, if at all, relative to what we believe will happen on paper, to compensate for BJax's positional value. I'd take BJax over Yelich. Who else has been rumored? I'd put him ahead of Marisnick and any of the arms in the Blue Jays organization.

[SouthSideRyan]

Rizzo's still a rookie, he was 2 ABs short.

[Guest]

I may not have BJax first, for my often stated reasons. However, I'm struggling to find anyone else to put up there.

[sneakypower]

would you ever trade an MLB-ready CF with a 3 WAR floor for an 18-year old with 18 professional PA?

 

of course not, there's really no sensible justification for ranking Baez over Jackson right now

[jersey cubs fan]

would you ever trade an MLB-ready CF with a 3 WAR floor for an 18-year old with 18 professional PA?

 

of course not, there's really no sensible justification for ranking Baez over Jackson right now

 

Brett Jackson has a 3 WAR floor?

[toonsterwu]

Rizzo's still a rookie, he was 2 ABs short.

 

yeah, i don't know why i thought that said 138 last night. [expletive] tired, but yeah, 2 AB's short, and looks like he's a few days shy of the rookie limit days limit as well.

[toonsterwu]

- if BJax is sort of the default 1, I wonder how many people would argue for Szczur or McNutt over Baez as 2 (I actually have Marco ahead of Szczur/McNutt, but I figure I'm in the clear minority there).

 

- the Sickels discussion made me think of PJ Francescon, who I took off my board so long ago that I hadn't pondered him in awhile. He'd be a very good sleeper candidate to watch next year. Some positive reports on the secondary stuff, and solid enough fastball.

[sneakypower]

would you ever trade an MLB-ready CF with a 3 WAR floor for an 18-year old with 18 professional PA?

 

of course not, there's really no sensible justification for ranking Baez over Jackson right now

 

Brett Jackson has a 3 WAR floor?

yeah, i think that's safe to say

 

look at Drew Stubbs: even a paltry .251/.325/.406 career line (aided by a favorable homefield) and average glove alone makes you a 3 WAR player in CF

 

is there any reason to assume he'll fall noticeably short of that plateau, offensively or with the glove? fwiw, Bill James has BJax projected for .251/.333/.434 right now

[jersey cubs fan]

would you ever trade an MLB-ready CF with a 3 WAR floor for an 18-year old with 18 professional PA?

 

of course not, there's really no sensible justification for ranking Baez over Jackson right now

 

Brett Jackson has a 3 WAR floor?

yeah, i think that's safe to say

 

look at Drew Stubbs: even a paltry .251/.325/.406 career line (aided by a favorable homefield) and average glove alone makes you a 3 WAR player in CF

 

is there any reason to assume he'll fall noticeably short of that plateau, offensively or with the glove? fwiw, Bill James has BJax projected for .251/.333/.434 right now

 

I think his extreme strikeout issues at least stand a chance of causing him to have a lower floor. He could blow. Not in a Tyler Colvin sense, but still, pretty bad. A projection isn't the same as a floor.

[El Duderino]

i can't imagine his strikeout rate is going to surpass drew stubbs.

[sneakypower]

correct, Jackson has had virtually the same K rate (23.8% and 23.4%, respectively) as Stubbs did through his minor league career, despite being 2 years younger than Stubbs was at every stop

 

he's also exhibited much better babip skill and significantly better power

[Guest]

correct, Jackson has had virtually the same K rate (23.8% and 23.4%, respectively) as Stubbs did through his minor league career, despite being 2 years younger than Stubbs was at every stop

 

he's also exhibited much better babip skill and significantly better power

How was Brett's strikeout rate last year?

[toonsterwu]

Unless I'm misreading things, I think JCF's point is just that, suggesting a 3 WAR floor seems to imply that he has no bust potential. I like Jackson, have argued that his ceiling is a bit under-rated, but he definitely has some bust potential. I think it's probably fair to say that, based on past guys (such as Stubbs), that Jackson has a good chance of being a 2.5-3.5 WAR type CF soon, but floor seems to imply that he's definitely that good from the get-go and that there's no chance he'll be below that.

[jersey cubs fan]

Unless I'm misreading things, I think JCF's point is just that, suggesting a 3 WAR floor seems to imply that he has no bust potential. I like Jackson, have argued that his ceiling is a bit under-rated, but he definitely has some bust potential. I think it's probably fair to say that, based on past guys (such as Stubbs), that Jackson has a good chance of being a 2.5-3.5 WAR type CF soon, but floor seems to imply that he's definitely that good from the get-go and that there's no chance he'll be below that.

 

Yeah, a floor is a floor. There's no way his is a 3 WAR season. The fact that Drew Stubbs hasn't sucked in the majors yet doesn't mean Jackson's floor is his career.

[sneakypower]

ok, Jackson's floor is that he'll be assassinated and will never be able play for us

[jersey cubs fan]

ok, Jackson's floor is that he'll be assassinated and will never be able play for us

 

What the hell? Screw you man.

 

 

Oh I see you deleted your asinine comments. It's not semantics. A prospect has a floor and a ceiling, to suggest Jackson's floor is being a 3 WAR CF is extremely optimistic and not at all realistic.

[sneakypower]

so...you're suggesting he's likely to either fall woefully short of a lowly .250/.320/.400 threshold, or simply average fielding and baserunning? well, no wonder i'm being considered extremely optimistic

[jersey cubs fan]

so...you're suggesting he's likely to either fall woefully short of a lowly .250/.320/.400 threshold, or simply average fielding and baserunning? well, no wonder i'm being considered extremely optimistic

 

Are you paying attention at all? There are floors for prospects, there are ceilings for prospects, and there are likelky projections for prospects. Me saying his floor is lower than 3 WAR is not me projecting him to suck.