Yooooooooooooennis Cespedes: To Oakland pg 44

[KingCubsFan]

It seems like a lot of the conversation on this board, especially recently, has been to avoid signing players (Pujols, Cespedes, Darvish) because we can just trade for a guy later on.

 

I don't think anyone has argued that this is the preferred method, just that it can be done.

 

I think many people have argued very strongly that it is their preferred method.

I think the argument tends more towards not wanting to give out massive 8-10 contracts to players that, in their mind, are either about to decline or already on the decline. It's not necessarily what method is "preferred," it's more that the Fielder/Pujols contracts weren't smart.

[Sammy Sofa]

There's been a few, but most are simply recognizing that there's a good shot that this team sucks next year, too. And it's not a stretch to think things don't work out as hoped and they're bad beyond that.

 

Agree to disagree.

 

You don't think there's a realistic shot they could be a mediocre or bad team in 2014?

 

We're getting into semantics now, but my expectation is that they're 5-7 games better than last year in 2012, and 5-7 games better than that(if not more) in 2013. I think this year is the last year for the forseeable future that winning less than 75 games is a significant/probable outcome.

 

I hope you're right.

[XZero771679666304]

There's been a few, but most are simply recognizing that there's a good shot that this team sucks next year, too. And it's not a stretch to think things don't work out as hoped and they're bad beyond that.

 

Well of course there's a good shot the team is bad next year. But there's a shot the team will be a lot better, a huge chance moves will be made that no one here is anticipating and a near certainty the lack of FA spending this year doesn't portend a lack of FA spending next year and into the future.

 

Saying it's not a stretch that things won't work out over the next several years is an absurdly obvious thing to say. The whole thing could go to hell in a handbasket. But it's not a stretch so think Pujols could continue his downward trend, Fielder's body could fail him and Darvish/Cespedes could flop. Signing some or all of those guys would have been no guarantee of positive long term results, either. Not by a longshot.

 

The roster Theo & Jed inherited was swiss cheese at best and while I'm not the least bit enthused about enduring a lost season, I see clear logic in blowing it up and understand doing so is not remotely locking us into multiple years of non-contention.

[Sammy Sofa]

Saying it's not a stretch that things won't work out over the next several years is an absurdly obvious thing to say. The whole thing could go to hell in a handbasket. But it's not a stretch so think Pujols could continue his downward trend, Fielder's body could fail him and Darvish/Cespedes could flop. Signing some or all of those guys would have been no guarantee of positive long term results, either. Not by a longshot.

 

HUGE middle ground you're glossing over there. And also pretty intellectually dishonest to act like all of those things are as likely as relying on prospects and IFA hampered by the new CBA or trades.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Any time you're working with as many unproven players as the Cubs are, there's the chance that you won't be very good. However, as they start to figure out what we really have, they'll get an idea where they need to spend to fill holes. Ideally, all we'd really need is to extend Garza, another front end starter, and maybe a corner OF with a bid bat. The 2013 team likely looks like:

 

1B. Rizzo

2B. Barney?

SS. Castro

3B. Vitters/Stewart

LF. ?/Sori/LaHair

CF. Jackson

RF. DeJesus

C. Castillo

SP. Garza

SP. ?

SP. Shark

SP. 2 of Maholm, Volstad, McNutt, Wood, Wells, Struck, etc.

 

Fill in the ?s for 2013, and in 2014 fill any additional needs holes, deepening on where they arrise.

[Sammy Sofa]

2B, 3B, C and the entire OF are pretty big [expletive] questions in that lineup.

[Little Slide Rooter]

2B, 3B, C and the entire OF are pretty big [expletive] questions in that lineup.

 

And you hope for the best, and those that don't pan out are the holes you fill that you fill. I suppose Cardenas is also an option for 2B. All the while, rather than spending big money on guys that aren't obvious upgrades scoop up more Ian Stewarts and Adrian Cardenases as the become available and again, hope for the best. I have no problem spending big money on the right players or guys like Cespedes and Soler but there no point in getting in a bidding war for guys like Swisher or Ethier simply because they're the best available option.

[sneakypower]

2B, 3B, C and the entire OF are pretty big [expletive] questions in that lineup.

Stewart isn't a question, you jackwagon

 

my hope is to woo Stephen Drew (with money) for 2B, sign BJ Upton for CF, and be left without a single weak spot in the lineup; Castillo can hit 8th and probably be perfectly fine

 

go after Liriano/Anibal/Marcum/Peavy? to augment the rotation and you shore up just about everything for roughly the price of one Cole Hamels*

 

 

*i may be underselling what these three will get, who the hell knows

[Little Slide Rooter]

2B, 3B, C and the entire OF are pretty big [expletive] questions in that lineup.

Stewart isn't a question, you jackwagon

 

my hope is to woo Stephen Drew (with money) for 2B, sign BJ Upton for CF, and be left without a single weak spot in the lineup; Castillo can hit 8th and probably be perfectly fine

 

go after Liriano/Anibal/Marcum/Peavy? to augment the rotation and you shore up just about everything for roughly the price of one Cole Hamels*

 

 

*i may be underselling what these three will get, who the hell knows

 

Definitely agree on Drew. The problem with Upton is that we don't know what we have in Jackson yet, so I wouldn't want to pay what he'd cost unless we were sure that Jackson woudlnt pan out. Then you top it all off with Hamels. If you can't get Hamels, grab one of Anibal, Liriano, or Marcum, no thanks on Peavy and in 2014 go for Lincecum.

[Sammy Sofa]

2B, 3B, C and the entire OF are pretty big [expletive] questions in that lineup.

Stewart isn't a question, you jackwagon

 

my hope is to woo Stephen Drew (with money) for 2B, sign BJ Upton for CF, and be left without a single weak spot in the lineup; Castillo can hit 8th and probably be perfectly fine

 

go after Liriano/Anibal/Marcum/Peavy? to augment the rotation and you shore up just about everything for roughly the price of one Cole Hamels*

 

 

*i may be underselling what these three will get, who the hell knows

 

Definitely agree on Drew. The problem with Upton is that we don't know what we have in Jackson yet, so I wouldn't want to pay what he'd cost unless we were sure that Jackson woudlnt pan out.

 

That's a terrible philosophy. I mean, MAYBE you could argue for that if Jackson had a shot to be a slam dunk, but he doesn't. If he pans out he's likely going to be a useful, solid player, but not someone you have to bypass productive FA for.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

 

Definitely agree on Drew. The problem with Upton is that we don't know what we have in Jackson yet, so I wouldn't want to pay what he'd cost unless we were sure that Jackson woudlnt pan out. Then you top it all off with Hamels. If you can't get Hamels, grab one of Anibal, Liriano, or Marcum, no thanks on Peavy and in 2014 go for Lincecum.

 

 

Please Jah no...Too much injury worry for any of those guys. Hamels or bust. Agreed on Lincecum....though isn't 2014 the year of Felix?

 

I like Drew at 2B, but Drew might not like Drew at 2B. Think Upton is going to be a good 2nd contract buy...

[XZero771679666304]

Saying it's not a stretch that things won't work out over the next several years is an absurdly obvious thing to say. The whole thing could go to hell in a handbasket. But it's not a stretch so think Pujols could continue his downward trend, Fielder's body could fail him and Darvish/Cespedes could flop. Signing some or all of those guys would have been no guarantee of positive long term results, either. Not by a longshot.

 

HUGE middle ground you're glossing over there. And also pretty intellectually dishonest to act like all of those things are as likely as relying on prospects and IFA hampered by the new CBA or trades.

 

I don't think Pujols continuing to fade or Cespedes flopping are more unlikely than the next five years totally blowing up in Theo's face. Give two really sharp guys the resources of a large market team and I'll put my money on them finding success over Albert defying father time. There's FA, IFA, trades and the amateur draft to work with.

 

And if you really look at what we missed out on this offseason, how much of it do you really feel will haunt us? Personally, my angst over the Pujols/Fielder "misses" was greatly alleviated by the Rizzo trade (which I don't see happening if the team were truly trying to compete in 2012). Darvish/Cespedes were the only two that still eat at me, and you can only really blame Theo/Jed for the latter and I'm only 50/50 on whether the former will pan out.

 

As TT has pointed out in the past, we would have needed multiple star acquisitions to make the 2012 squad a legit contender, and I'm not sure signing Pujols to marginally bolster (Pujols was a 5 WAR player last year and Pena was a 2 WAR player, does that upgrade really help all that much?) our 2012-2014 chances would have been worth assuming diminishing returns on that huge contract down the line. Who would you feel more confident about being a 5 WAR player 4-5 years from now, Pujols or Rizzo? I'm not so sure.

 

To feel really good about competing this year, we'd likely have had to add Pujols, Cespedes, one of Darvish/Wilson, retained Ramirez for multiple years and kept Marshall and probably Cashner (Marmol/Wood were an are huge question marks).

 

And all those moves would have simply put us in the pack with STL/MIL/CIN. You can definitely argue for and against that scenario being beneficial long term or more or less risky than the route taken. Most of us would opt for that scenario, but I'd bet mostly for reasons of instant gratification rather than prospects of long term success.

 

After some thought, I've come to believe that there probably wasn't a likely way to go into 2012 as a strong contender and add the pieces that were added. But I do think we can go into 2013 as at least a borderline contender from the place the team is now.

[Sammy Sofa]

And if you really look at what we missed out on this offseason, how much of it do you really feel will haunt us?

 

Cespedes, Darvish, Wilson and, to a lesser degree, Pujols, though "haunt" is a really loaded word. I think it's unfortunate they missed out on all of them and basically started from the bottom up when they didn't have to, especially when they can't throw nearly as much money into drafting and IFA as it's clear they were hoping/intending to.

[XZero771679666304]

And if you really look at what we missed out on this offseason, how much of it do you really feel will haunt us?

 

Cespedes, Darvish, Wilson and, to a lesser degree, Pujols, though "haunt" is a really loaded word. I think it's unfortunate they missed out on all of them and basically started from the bottom up when they didn't have to, especially when they can't throw nearly as much money into drafting and IFA as it's clear they were hoping/intending to.

 

I agree with that. I don't think really competing this year was in the cards, but Darvish/Cespedes would have been nice, young and relatively inexpensive (minus the posting fee) pieces to add going forward.

 

I also really hate the posting/sealed bidding system, but that's another issue.

[Little Slide Rooter]

2B, 3B, C and the entire OF are pretty big [expletive] questions in that lineup.

Stewart isn't a question, you jackwagon

 

my hope is to woo Stephen Drew (with money) for 2B, sign BJ Upton for CF, and be left without a single weak spot in the lineup; Castillo can hit 8th and probably be perfectly fine

 

go after Liriano/Anibal/Marcum/Peavy? to augment the rotation and you shore up just about everything for roughly the price of one Cole Hamels*

 

 

*i may be underselling what these three will get, who the hell knows

 

Definitely agree on Drew. The problem with Upton is that we don't know what we have in Jackson yet, so I wouldn't want to pay what he'd cost unless we were sure that Jackson woudlnt pan out.

 

That's a terrible philosophy. I mean, MAYBE you could argue for that if Jackson had a shot to be a slam dunk, but he doesn't. If he pans out he's likely going to be a useful, solid player, but not someone you have to bypass productive FA for.

 

That's just it though. Jackson is by no means a slam dunk, but he's a good enough prospect that if you were going to sign someone to take his job before he even starts it should be more than a productive player. Yeah, Uptons a lot better than he gets credit for, but not a guy that I'd be willing to over pay for when we already have a guy that could potentially be very good for far cheaper and spend the money elsewhere. This being said, if we did get Upton, we could shop Jackson around, and assuming he stays in the top 30-40 prospects range perhaps we could get either a player to

fill another hole or some more prospects.

[Sammy Sofa]

That's just it though. Jackson is by no means a slam dunk, but he's a good enough prospect that if you were going to sign someone to take his job before he even starts it should be more than a productive player.

 

What? No.

[Guest]

How about we just play both of them and then platoon or trade DeJesus and Soriano

[Sammy Sofa]

No way, man.

[UMFan83]

That's just it though. Jackson is by no means a slam dunk, but he's a good enough prospect that if you were going to sign someone to take his job before he even starts it should be more than a productive player.

 

Brilliant analysis. I bet most people thought we should block Jacksons arrival with a significantly less productive player like Neifi Perez.

[Little Slide Rooter]

That's just it though. Jackson is by no means a slam dunk, but he's a good enough prospect that if you were going to sign someone to take his job before he even starts it should be more than a productive player.

 

Brilliant analysis. I bet most people thought we should block Jacksons arrival with a significantly less productive player like Neifi Perez.

 

That's nowhere near what I was saying, but that's OK.

[Little Slide Rooter]

How about we just play both of them and then platoon or trade DeJesus and Soriano

 

That's just crazy enough to work. But CF is a premium position, and if we did sign Upton, we could then move Jackson for either a corner OF with more power or a starting pitcher.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's not crazy at all. Certainly not as crazy as thinking of passing over Upton because of Brett [expletive] Jackson.

[Backtobanks]

There's been a few, but most are simply recognizing that there's a good shot that this team sucks next year, too. And it's not a stretch to think things don't work out as hoped and they're bad beyond that.

 

Agree to disagree.

 

You don't think there's a realistic shot they could be a mediocre or bad team in 2014?

 

We're getting into semantics now, but my expectation is that they're 5-7 games better than last year in 2012, and 5-7 games better than that(if not more) in 2013. I think this year is the last year for the forseeable future that winning less than 75 games is a significant/probable outcome.

 

I don't know about 2014, but I'm not sure this team is going to be 5-7 games better than last year. Obviously 2013 is really a question mark with Rizzo and Brett starting and somebody having to replace Dempster.

[sneakypower]

How about we just play both of them and then platoon or trade DeJesus and Soriano

yes, this was the general idea

[XZero771679666304]

It's not crazy at all. Certainly not as crazy as thinking of passing over Upton because of Brett [expletive] Jackson.

 

If it's Jackson at minimum or Upton @ 15MM+ per year I'm taking Jackson. They look to be similar players (hit for moderate power, low average, take walks and strike out a ton), at least similar enough I wouldn't overpay for Upton.