2012 - Throw away/Go for it?

[Cubs Fan Dan]

step 1

 

Sign Fielder

 

step 2

 

dump Sori on whomever no matter the cost (lackey for sori?)

 

step 3

 

trade Z, barney, prospect(s) and cash to Marlins for Nolasco and Morrison

 

step 4

 

sign Wilson but when/if the $ gets crazy fallback on Jackson/Vasquez/maholm type pitchers.

 

step 5

 

resign Wood

 

step 6

 

3B - if Ramirez is not retained, look at 1 year options starting with Edwin Incarnation

 

step 7

 

destroy Koyie Hill

 

Step 8

 

do more if needed.

 

Castro ss

Jackson Cf

fielder 1B

Morrison LF

Soto C

Byrd RF

Encarnacion 3B

Baker/Dewitt/DJ 2B

 

Garza

Wilson/jackson/vasquez/maholm

dempster

nolasco

Wells/cash

 

see what happens, most important thing is there is a core of offensive players from 1 through 5 that would allow the Cubs to build arround them. I would not be afraid to trade Soto in a package for a top young 3B or SP either. I think the cubs should be aggressive in acquiring players that will be in their primes in 2013,14,15 with hopes everything clicks a year earlier or the division comes back to the Cubs.

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

Garza

Wilson/jackson/vasquez/maholm

dempster

nolasco

Wells/cash

 

 

As far as that set goes, another guy whose rumored to be available is Joe Saunders, who the D Backs have said might be a non tender or a sign and trade. To me, he's below Wilson and Maholm but above Jackson and Vasquez.

[toonsterwu]

I don't see the Marlins doing a Z/Barney/Prospects deal for LoMo/Nolasco unless we give them their choice of 3-5 guys from the farm and eat a huge chunk of salary, and even then, that might not be enough. I mean, we're talking about an excellent first base prospect that's cost-controlled and a, in his prime, 3/4 starter. Marlins may have been boneheaded with regards to their LoMo decision, but they haven't had a recent history of significantly boneheaded trades when it comes to trading for young talent.

 

As for Saunders, don't want him unless it's on the cheap. I think he's 5th on that list for me. CJ Wilson is clearly first. Edwin Jackson hasn't been bad in the NL. It's just, with the White Sox, throwing his sliders more, he looked like a number 3 starter. In the NL, he's been more end of the rotation level, but I'd take his potential to be like the arm he was in Chicago over Joe Saunders. Vazquez probably pitches for the Marlins or goes to retirement. He'd be an interesting 1-2 year addition if he wanted to come, but I doubt it. If Maholm came at say, 5 mil, I'd be interested. If he comes more at 8-9 mil ... not so sure I'm all that curious. Granted, we have money to burn that the Pirates can only dream about, so if they do let him go, it's not a bad thought, but I'd be wary of over-paying for Maholm.

[TruffleShuffle]

those "prospects" are gonna have to be pretty good to be netting nolasco and morrison. darwin barney has little to no trade value; he's worth more to the cubs because his defensive contributions will be underrated.

[SouthSideRyan]

We tried to win it all quickly after 2006 and that failed miserably and left us with this [expletive] product. Slow and steady wins the race. Let's do this [expletive] in 3 years.

 

The only problem, literally the only problem with the '06 offseason was signing Soriano. Every other move was good. That '06 offseason also left us with the best team in the NL 2 years later.

 

November 15, 2006 Signed catcher Henry Blanco to a two-year contract with a mutual option for 2009.

 

Henry was kindly enough to stay injured most of '07 allowing Geo to take over in September, and was probably one of the best backups in baseball in '08.

 

ETA: Holy [expletive] he's still active?? And good?

[Guest]

Not really a fan of Maholm. He's not bad at all, but he's 30 and has limited upside. It's like signing Barney or Randy Wells as a FA.

 

In a perfect world, the payroll gets upped 15 million, we bring back Ramirez and Wood, sign Pujols and Wilson, and trade for Danks. Less perfect but more realistic world, we eat half of Z and Soriano's money to make them go away, then do all those things and use internal replacements for those two.

 

Jackson/Castro/Pujols/Ramirez/Soto/Byrd/OF Platoon/Barney

Wilson/Garza/Danks/Dempster/Wells/Cashner

Marmol/Marshall/Wood/Shark/Russell

 

EDIT: This also sets up nicely for 2013, Cashner replaces Dempster, McNutt takes the Cashner/6th starter role, Dempster and Byrd's money goes to an impact OF since we'll have an opening.

[TruffleShuffle]

We tried to win it all quickly after 2006 and that failed miserably and left us with this [expletive] product. Slow and steady wins the race. Let's do this [expletive] in 3 years.

 

The only problem, literally the only problem with the '06 offseason was signing Soriano. Every other move was good. That '06 offseason also left us with the best team in the NL 2 years later.

 

November 15, 2006 Signed catcher Henry Blanco to a two-year contract with a mutual option for 2009.

 

Henry was kindly enough to stay injured most of '07 allowing Geo to take over in September, and was probably one of the best backups in baseball in '08.

 

ETA: Holy [expletive] he's still active?? And good?

 

he was a zero win player and got $5m in two years, that is not a good signing.

[SouthSideRyan]

As I said, his value to us in '07 was being injured. He was barely overpaid in '08

[bcl412]

I say why not? Especially if the Cards lose Pujols and Brewers lose Fielder, I still think they'd be good teams without them (though I think the Brewers would be better). I would think the division would be weak enough that we could compete in it with some good moves.

[Guest]

Dempster was on Talkin Baseball. Seems to leave the door open for the possibility of him not picking up his option depending on what he finds out to be the direction of the team, but mainly he seems pretty happy about Theo and all that. But it sounds like he'd rather have an extension than pick up his option.

 

If he left, I'd have less of a problem throwing money at CJ (and we'd pretty much need to).

Edited October 22, 2011 by David

[toonsterwu]

Dempster was on Talkin Baseball. Seems to leave the door open for the possibility of him not picking up his option depending on what he finds out the direction of the team, but mainly he seems pretty happy about Theo and all that. But it sounds like he'd rather have an extension than pick up his option.

 

If he left, I'd have less of a problem throwing money at CJ (and we'd pretty much need to).

 

If Ryan left, we'd basically need 3 starters this year, and that's assuming Randy Wells can be consistent, like he was before this year. That said, considering Ryan's age, I don't know if I'd offer more than 2 and an option.

[davell]

I don't care whether Dempster is back or not. We'd get a pick or two if he opts out and we offer him arb. I wouldn't want him back at his same salary unless we really are increasing payroll bigtime anyway. If he'd accept a 2 for 22ish type deal that gives us a little discount on 2012, then fine. Otherwise, let him walk and hold onto Z, since he'll be pitching for a new contract next year as well.

[dew1679666265]

This could sound really stupid, but isn't it possible Maholm would come as a much better value than CJ?

 

Just slot him in after Garza and Demp.. *shrug*

 

Wilson's WAR is 5.9 this year. It's taken 2 and a half seasons for Maholm to match that one for Wilson. In 2 years starting, Wilson has posted a 10.5 WAR combined. In 7 years in the majors, Maholm has posted a 13.8 WAR combined.

 

At 30 years old, Maholm better come super cheap to have any chance of being worth taking over Wilson.

[dew1679666265]

The thing to keep in mind with the situation the Cubs are in is that we have a lot of decent to good young players coming up from the minors over the next couple of years. Jackson, McNutt, Vitters, Castillo, Whitenack, Struck, LeMaheieu, Flaherty, Cabrera, etc., are all guys who project to be major leaguers of some value, but not a single one projects to be a star.

 

This system and current ML team doesn't lack role player types, we've got a ton. What the Cubs lack is star talent. I don't see how bringing in a bunch more role player types (Maholm, E Jackson, back of the rotation filler, Encarnacion, etc) really helps us much. We'll have young players coming up in the next year or two who will be as good or better than those players (or who can be). What we need is stars, guys who can be part of a core going forward. Those guys cost money, yes, and demand big contracts, yes, but if we're going to contend on a consistent basis at any point, we have to be willing to give star contracts to star players. Wilson, Fielder, Pujols, CC are star players. They aren't Alfonso Soriano and shouldn't be equated as such.

 

Signing Pujols or Prince or Wilson isn't a 1-2 year quick fix. These guys are really likely to be fantastically great players for the next 3-5 years (maybe more for Pujols and Prince). They're long term and short term signings and they're the type of star player we lack and won't have for multiple years going forward given the situation our farm is in. We should absolutely be major players in pursuing every one of them.

[Guest]

This could sound really stupid, but isn't it possible Maholm would come as a much better value than CJ?

 

Just slot him in after Garza and Demp.. *shrug*

 

Wilson's WAR is 5.9 this year. It's taken 2 and a half seasons for Maholm to match that one for Wilson. In 2 years starting, Wilson has posted a 10.5 WAR combined. In 7 years in the majors, Maholm has posted a 13.8 WAR combined.

 

At 30 years old, Maholm better come super cheap to have any chance of being worth taking over Wilson.

 

 

Guess I just figured he would.

[Guest]

The thing to keep in mind with the situation the Cubs are in is that we have a lot of decent to good young players coming up from the minors over the next couple of years. Jackson, McNutt, Vitters, Castillo, Whitenack, Struck, LeMaheieu, Flaherty, Cabrera, etc., are all guys who project to be major leaguers of some value, but not a single one projects to be a star.

 

This system and current ML team doesn't lack role player types, we've got a ton. What the Cubs lack is star talent. I don't see how bringing in a bunch more role player types (Maholm, E Jackson, back of the rotation filler, Encarnacion, etc) really helps us much. We'll have young players coming up in the next year or two who will be as good or better than those players (or who can be). What we need is stars, guys who can be part of a core going forward. Those guys cost money, yes, and demand big contracts, yes, but if we're going to contend on a consistent basis at any point, we have to be willing to give star contracts to star players. Wilson, Fielder, Pujols, CC are star players. They aren't Alfonso Soriano and shouldn't be equated as such.

 

Signing Pujols or Prince or Wilson isn't a 1-2 year quick fix. These guys are really likely to be fantastically great players for the next 3-5 years (maybe more for Pujols and Prince). They're long term and short term signings and they're the type of star player we lack and won't have for multiple years going forward given the situation our farm is in. We should absolutely be major players in pursuing every one of them.

 

I don't disagree with your overall premise. I'd just rather hold off for another year and another crop of pitchers (or potentially trade for someone really good getting really expensive for his current team) than to overpay CJ Wilson because he's the best guy available this year (barring CC).

[Cubs Fan Dan]

ESPN RUMOR Central states the Mets will look into trading Wright.

 

May be another option.

[dew1679666265]

Guess I just figured he would.

 

I'm thinking the mid-3.00s ERA last year will boost his price tag - especially when pitching starved teams miss on Wilson/CC/E Jackson. His numbers weren't very impressive last year - 5.10 ERA/4.40 xFIP/2.0 WAR - and I'd be concerned that he wouldn't repeat the best ML season of his career (by ERA/FIP standards) when he turns 30 next year.

[pitchcs]

I think Toonster has it pretty spot on right now.

 

Throw away the season?? Obviously not, but realistically not a ton can really be done to make this a playoff caliber team in one season. Let's just hope for sound decisions that help build this team to truly compete in 2013 and beyond.

[Brian]

2012 is not realistic, but I think building for 2013 is. Fielder/Prince should be the top priority.

[dew1679666265]

I don't disagree with your overall premise. I'd just rather hold off for another year and another crop of pitchers (or potentially trade for someone really good getting really expensive for his current team) than to overpay CJ Wilson because he's the best guy available this year (barring CC).

 

In 2 years as a starter, Wilson has averaged a 5.25 WAR per season.

 

Cain: 3.4 avg WAR/28 years old in 2013/1 5+ WAR season

Danks: 3.2 avg WAR/28 years old in 2013/0 5+ WAR seasons

Greinke: 3.8 avg WAR/28 years old in 2013/2 5+ WAR seasons

Hamels: 3.8 avg WAR/29 years old in 2013/0 5+ WAR seasons (though 1 4.9 WAR season)

Dan Haren is set to be a FA if his option isn't picked up as well.

 

With this post I'm not necessarily arguing Wilson is better than all of them. But he's right up there with every one of those pitchers and we don't know which of these pitchers, if any, will actually hit FA next year. I'd assume Greinke will not be in Milwaukee after next year, but what if he's dealt to the Yankees (for example) at the deadline next year and they re-up him? I could easily see the Phillies re-upping Hamels, the DBacks picking up Haren's option, the Sox bringing back or trading Danks, and the Giants hanging onto Cain. You don't pass on a sure thing like Wilson in the off chance that similar players come available next year and that there are enough of them to drive the price down considerably.

 

Whatever star players we sign, we're going to overpay. Might as well overpay for a sure thing, elite player with much less mileage than any of those guys have.

[dew1679666265]

2012 is not realistic, but I think building for 2013 is. Fielder/Prince should be the top priority.

 

With the Cards and Brewers presumably losing Pujols and Prince and with the money the Cubs have available to them (especially if payroll is raised to $150 this offseason), there's really no reason we can't compete in what would be an abysmal division.

 

We won't be WS favorites by any means, but we can get close to .500 or greater and that may well win the division next year. Plus, signings like Prince/Pujols/Wilson aren't short term moves. You can make them with the idea that you'll likely compete later down the road.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not always sure what they mean when people say 2012 isn't realistic or whatever.

 

I don't think it's realistic that the 2012 Cubs go into April with the best team on paper in the division, unless that idle speculation about a $200 million total baseball budget are true.

 

I think it's very realistic that the 2012 Cubs go into April as a .500 team on paper. From there, there's some sort of chance that several players have better seasons than expected (say, 5 guys at +0.8 WAR each), they get some positive pythagorean variance and then they get some deadline help. That puts you in the 90-win range, and as the Cardinals keep proving, being the worst team in the playoffs doesn't hurt your chances that much.

 

Sure, it could just as easily go the other way, but what's the point of fielding a baseball team if you aren't going to try.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think the division is going to be *that* bad. The Brewers minus Fielder still look like a capable team to me. The arbitration raises are going to eat them alive for the next few years, but I think they can give it one more go.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think the division is going to be *that* bad. The Brewers minus Fielder still look like a capable team to me. The arbitration raises are going to eat them alive for the next few years, but I think they can give it one more go.

 

Cards won 90 games with Pujols and a late season surge. I'd have trouble seeing them above 80-85 wins next year without Pujols.

 

The Brewers could be better than roughly .500 without Prince, it largely depends on who replaces him and how well that player does. However, their pythag win total was 90 this year. I also don't know what their upcoming pitching looks like, but Wolf is 34, LaTroy is 38 and Saito is 41. Wolf was their third best starter by ERA+ and LaTroy and Saito were pretty awesome out of the pen this year and all three will be a year older next year. Plus, without a payroll bump (no idea if they can/will), they'll have $25 million to pay arbitration to Marcum, Loe, Parra, Gomez, Josh Wilson, McGehee, Morgan, Kottaras and Stetter. A fall back near .500 without one of their best two players is pretty realistic.