CJ Wilson thread: Signed by Angels 5/$77.5 million pg 10

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Scott Baker wishes he was a 2-3. I actually like him as a pitcher, but he's right with guys like Dempster, Wells, and Z as mid-back of the rotation starters.

[toonsterwu]

Ryan Dempster is a mid-back of the rotation starter? I think Dempster is fine as a 2/3. He throws 200 innings, consistently has a xFIP in the 3.7 range (ERA ballooned a bit this year, but K/9, BB/9, and K/BB were all fine compared to years past). He's consistently around a 3 WAR pitcher. Is he on the decline? Probably, but I don't see any reason, as of now, to be concerned. Velocity was somewhat similar to 09, slider usage was far less.

 

As for Baker, that's a closer call. But 3 years running of 7+ K/9 and 2 ish BB/9 rates. A bit homer prone, but the xFIP and SIERA had been on a positive 3 year trend prior to his injury. I think he's probably near the end of his prime years, but I don't see why he can't keep the level of performance he's had, which is certainly "3" worthy for most rotations, and for some, "2" worthy. The numbers are strong, and if the Cubs could do whatever trick they did with Garza on him, perhaps that HR rate comes down and he becomes a sharper pitcher.

[Backtobanks]

I still think some team is going to make a ridiculous offer to Wilson and blow everybody else out of the water.

 

Thing is, a lot of the big market teams have some other issues to work out.

 

Not saying he won't get a huge deal, just saying I'm not sure he's going to get a "blow everybody else out of the water" deal. I mean, which team? Yankees have the Sabathia issue, and Cashman, provided he isn't overruled by the ownership, is wary of such big contract efforts, by most accounts. Of course, he may view it as their best shot to give the aging core one last run or two.

 

Boston has to work out their contractual issues. If they can clear some dough off, perhaps, but it's going to be awfully hard.

 

St. Louis has to figure out Pujols first and foremoest, and I think they probably prefer Carpenter back for a short term deal.

 

Texas? Perhaps, but do they have blow everybody away money that they can spend?

 

White Sox are rebuilding. The one team that, to the best of my knowledge, has a fair amount of money clearing up and could use a strong 2nd starter as they wait on the kids might be Detroit, but with Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Jacob Turner, Doug Fister, they have enough arms already.

 

Actually, from a monetary and future competitiveness standpoint, I really wonder about the Nationals. They have money to spend, and adding CJ Wilson to go with Strasburg and Zimmerman would give them a nasty 1-3, and there's a young offensive core developing.

 

If I had to toss a team in there that I wonder about, the Blue Jays come to mind, but is this an Anthoupoulos move? May be one year too early in his plan to make this move.

 

I wonder how real is all the chatter on the Marlins spending more this winter.

 

Taking a gigantic pivot for a second, in a thread that doesn't really apply, but I wonder if the Twins might shop Scott Baker this offseason? It's a weak market and they have 1 year and 1 option year left. His peripherals have been fairly consistent 3 years in a row. He is coming off an injury, but didn't sound that serious. He's 30, so he's not going to be around to build around. They have to figure out a way to add some pieces. They have some contracts coming off (Nathan if they decline the option would be a big clearing), but I wonder. For the right price, he'd be a guy that I'd have some interest in as a 2/3 type starter in the rotation. I'd bring up James Shields name, but that's a price that is likely to be way too heavy for the Cubs to afford in terms of talent that it would cost.

 

Orioles, Angels?

[toonsterwu]

Angels going after pitching? I guess you can't rule it out, but my hunch is that if they offer anyone a "blow it out of the water" type deal, it'd probably be an offensive piece, and perhaps Aramis. They have a solid 1-3 in the rotation in Haren/Weaver/Santana.

 

Orioles definitely have the money, but I just don't see them spending blow people out of the water type money. Even if they do, I imagine (could be wrong) that CJ Wilson might want to go to a competitive situation at his age, and if the money's close, who's going to Baltimore? That's just a tough division with poor ownership leadership as it relates to team-building.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Ryan Dempster is a mid-back of the rotation starter? I think Dempster is fine as a 2/3. He throws 200 innings, consistently has a xFIP in the 3.7 range (ERA ballooned a bit this year, but K/9, BB/9, and K/BB were all fine compared to years past). He's consistently around a 3 WAR pitcher. Is he on the decline? Probably, but I don't see any reason, as of now, to be concerned. Velocity was somewhat similar to 09, slider usage was far less.

As for Baker, that's a closer call. But 3 years running of 7+ K/9 and 2 ish BB/9 rates. A bit homer prone, but the xFIP and SIERA had been on a positive 3 year trend prior to his injury. I think he's probably near the end of his prime years, but I don't see why he can't keep the level of performance he's had, which is certainly "3" worthy for most rotations, and for some, "2" worthy. The numbers are strong, and if the Cubs could do whatever trick they did with Garza on him, perhaps that HR rate comes down and he becomes a sharper pitcher.

 

He's your typical solid veteran 3 and a top of the line 4. I'd be perfectly fine with him as the #3 starter next year. He'd still be the unofficial leader of the Cubs pitching staff because of his time spent here and the fact that he has been so solid for the team.

 

I think we have Baker types, including Dempster. His periphs are nice, but he's throwing in a pretty sweet pitcher's park and I just don't think a young AL Central pitcher (and Baker is 3 years older than Garza was) will see the boost a young AL East pitcher would see. The Cubs made some adjustments to Garza's game, but he's always been a very good pitcher who's numbers got AL Easted. He was and is more naturally talented than Baker too.

[Backtobanks]

Angels going after pitching? I guess you can't rule it out, but my hunch is that if they offer anyone a "blow it out of the water" type deal, it'd probably be an offensive piece, and perhaps Aramis. They have a solid 1-3 in the rotation in Haren/Weaver/Santana.

 

Orioles definitely have the money, but I just don't see them spending blow people out of the water type money. Even if they do, I imagine (could be wrong) that CJ Wilson might want to go to a competitive situation at his age, and if the money's close, who's going to Baltimore? That's just a tough division with poor ownership leadership as it relates to team-building.

 

In both cases they might go after Wilson to use their other pitchers (Guthrie, Santana, etc.) as trade bait to pick up a position player.

[Backtobanks]

Scott Baker wishes he was a 2-3. I actually like him as a pitcher, but he's right with guys like Dempster, Wells, and Z as mid-back of the rotation starters.

 

If we don't get Wilson (or Sabathia), we need to look at some pitchers like Baker, Gavin Floyd, etc. who can provide depth to the starting rotation so we don't have the situation of Davis/Coleman/Lopez/Russell starting once or twice a week. That was one reason I hated to see Gorzelanny go.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

 

•Some people think that C.J. Wilson has keen interest as free agent in New York, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. He adds that the Yankees are probably the early favorite to sign him.

[TruffleShuffle]

must be those lax new york gun laws that are attracting him :^o

[jersey cubs fan]

My interest in this guy plummetted after his manager pulled a Dusty the other night.

[javy knows my name]

My interest in this guy plummetted after his manager pulled a Dusty the other night.

 

Saw that, was thinking the same thing.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

My interest in this guy plummetted after his manager pulled a Dusty the other night.

 

Is he finished?

 

It was kind of a dick move on the Rangers' part...I'll admit that much.

[toonsterwu]

Ryan Dempster is a mid-back of the rotation starter? I think Dempster is fine as a 2/3. He throws 200 innings, consistently has a xFIP in the 3.7 range (ERA ballooned a bit this year, but K/9, BB/9, and K/BB were all fine compared to years past). He's consistently around a 3 WAR pitcher. Is he on the decline? Probably, but I don't see any reason, as of now, to be concerned. Velocity was somewhat similar to 09, slider usage was far less.

As for Baker, that's a closer call. But 3 years running of 7+ K/9 and 2 ish BB/9 rates. A bit homer prone, but the xFIP and SIERA had been on a positive 3 year trend prior to his injury. I think he's probably near the end of his prime years, but I don't see why he can't keep the level of performance he's had, which is certainly "3" worthy for most rotations, and for some, "2" worthy. The numbers are strong, and if the Cubs could do whatever trick they did with Garza on him, perhaps that HR rate comes down and he becomes a sharper pitcher.

 

He's your typical solid veteran 3 and a top of the line 4. I'd be perfectly fine with him as the #3 starter next year. He'd still be the unofficial leader of the Cubs pitching staff because of his time spent here and the fact that he has been so solid for the team.

 

I think we have Baker types, including Dempster. His periphs are nice, but he's throwing in a pretty sweet pitcher's park and I just don't think a young AL Central pitcher (and Baker is 3 years older than Garza was) will see the boost a young AL East pitcher would see. The Cubs made some adjustments to Garza's game, but he's always been a very good pitcher who's numbers got AL Easted. He was and is more naturally talented than Baker too.

 

Dempster is a solid 3, top of the line 4? So you are saying that there are 60 better starters than Dempster? I don't see it. He's posted 15.1 WAR over the last 4 years. It's hard to buy that his WAR slip this year is a significant indicator of troubles to come, as there were some clear statistical reasons as to why the WAR fell. A 3 WAR arm is typically a top 60 guy every year to begin with.

 

Anyhow, I think this is one of those things that we'll end up going back and forth on. I think there's more than enough arguments, statistically and stuff wise (I mean a "3" arm is typically, what, 2 above average pitches, decent 3rd offering, decent command - Dempster definitely has that and at times, his stuff is close to a 2, when he has a plus fast/plus slider), to say that Dempster is a low end 2, high end 3, and I don't think Baker is significantly below him, but I acknowledge that the Baker part is debatable. Dempster, though, I don't see why he's a mid-end of the rotation arm. The numbers support that he's a low 2/high 3, and even if you assume that there's going to be some decline, it's hard to see him decline significantly that he'll be a below average 3 starter.

 

Certainly, Garza is more talented than Baker.

[Clem Fandango]

From MLBTR:

 

•Some people think that C.J. Wilson has keen interest as free agent in New York, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. He adds that the Yankees are probably the early favorite to sign him.

 

Man, Jon Heyman is really going out on a limb with these hard hitting tweets.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Dempster is a solid 3, top of the line 4? So you are saying that there are 60 better starters than Dempster? I don't see it. He's posted 15.1 WAR over the last 4 years. It's hard to buy that his WAR slip this year is a significant indicator of troubles to come, as there were some clear statistical reasons as to why the WAR fell. A 3 WAR arm is typically a top 60 guy every year to begin with.

 

Anyhow, I think this is one of those things that we'll end up going back and forth on. I think there's more than enough arguments, statistically and stuff wise (I mean a "3" arm is typically, what, 2 above average pitches, decent 3rd offering, decent command - Dempster definitely has that and at times, his stuff is close to a 2, when he has a plus fast/plus slider), to say that Dempster is a low end 2, high end 3, and I don't think Baker is significantly below him, but I acknowledge that the Baker part is debatable. Dempster, though, I don't see why he's a mid-end of the rotation arm. The numbers support that he's a low 2/high 3, and even if you assume that there's going to be some decline, it's hard to see him decline significantly that he'll be a below average 3 starter.

 

Certainly, Garza is more talented than Baker.

 

Yes, and there are not 30 guys I'd consider legit #2 starters...just like there are not 30 guys I'd consider legit or even borderline #1s.

 

The guy is a very, very solid pitcher and a boon to the Cubs rotation. I'd be disappointed if he was once again one of the Cubs' two best SP talents next year.

[biittner77]

Orioles definitely have the money, but I just don't see them spending blow people out of the water type money. Even if they do, I imagine (could be wrong) that CJ Wilson might want to go to a competitive situation at his age, and if the money's close, who's going to Baltimore? That's just a tough division with poor ownership leadership as it relates to team-building.

 

They will be hiring a new GM, so that could change. If Texas wins the WS, he'd have to consider taking the money that the O's would be able to offer.

[Backtobanks]

Orioles definitely have the money, but I just don't see them spending blow people out of the water type money. Even if they do, I imagine (could be wrong) that CJ Wilson might want to go to a competitive situation at his age, and if the money's close, who's going to Baltimore? That's just a tough division with poor ownership leadership as it relates to team-building.

 

They will be hiring a new GM, so that could change. If Texas wins the WS, he'd have to consider taking the money that the O's would be able to offer.

 

Most of the FAs that leave money on the table to play for a contender have already made a lot of money. Wilson and his agent know that this is his first, last, and only big payday.

[erik316wttn]

I don't know if I want to take a chance on a 31 year old starter with two good years under his belt. Has he been good in his limited starting time? Absolutely? But enough for me to be comfortable as the highest bidder on a 4-5 year contract? Probably not.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I don't know if I want to take a chance on a 31 year old starter with two good years under his belt. Has he been good in his limited starting time? Absolutely? But enough for me to be comfortable as the highest bidder on a 4-5 year contract? Probably not.

 

I like him alot, especially considering how good he's been for those 2 years as a starter in one of the most hitter friendly parks on earth, but a lot of people are saying that due to the weak FA pitching class, he could end up with a 100mm deal, and I don't think I want to make that kind of commitment to him with so many holes to fill. If you're going to spend that much on 1 guy, it better be Pujols or Fielder, who will likely end up 150mm guys.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't know if I want to take a chance on a 31 year old starter with two good years under his belt. Has he been good in his limited starting time? Absolutely? But enough for me to be comfortable as the highest bidder on a 4-5 year contract? Probably not.

 

Why not? 3 years as an excellent starter in a very hitter's-friendly ballpark. Much less wear and tear on his body than the usual 31-year-old starter due to him having been a reliever.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't know if I want to take a chance on a 31 year old starter with two good years under his belt. Has he been good in his limited starting time? Absolutely? But enough for me to be comfortable as the highest bidder on a 4-5 year contract? Probably not.

 

Why not? 3 years as an excellent starter in a very hitter's-friendly ballpark. Much less wear and tear on his body than the usual 31-year-old starter due to him having been a reliever.

 

Jon Lieber was also a relatively young arm with little wear on his arm when Dusty Baker gave him the rain delay treatment and within a year or so he was under the knife.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't know if I want to take a chance on a 31 year old starter with two good years under his belt. Has he been good in his limited starting time? Absolutely? But enough for me to be comfortable as the highest bidder on a 4-5 year contract? Probably not.

 

Why not? 3 years as an excellent starter in a very hitter's-friendly ballpark. Much less wear and tear on his body than the usual 31-year-old starter due to him having been a reliever.

 

Jon Lieber was also a relatively young arm with little wear on his arm when Dusty Baker gave him the rain delay treatment and within a year or so he was under the knife.

 

That was Baylor.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, gooney's not saying what I think he's saying, is he?

[Guest]

Before his injury, Lieber also had 203, 251, and 232 IP the 3 years prior, and 1500+ MLB IP total. Wilson has 700+ MLB IP.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Before his injury, Lieber also had 203, 251, and 232 IP the 3 years prior, and 1500+ MLB IP total. Wilson has 700+ MLB IP.

 

Yeah. Lieber was piling up huge pitch counts before his injury. The story was that he was a WorkHorse so it didn't matter.