Bears game 1: Sunday, Sep 11 vs ATL, noon on Fox

[Soul]

Yeah, don't feel to bad about it. I thought for sure Lovie would be gone by now, but he's managed to turn things around and give himself a little more time.

 

I'm not *too* excited yet, after all it was only week 1 and we have 2 of the best teams in the league the next 2 weeks. But yesterday was loads of fun. A pleasant surprise.

[The Other One]

Lovie is a maddening character. In a macro sense he is a great leader and seems to get a high level of respect from players around the league. His teams have been up and down in his tenure, but in bad times he didn't lose the team and was able to come back to a high point after a low point. I could see him leading this franchise on the field for several more years.

 

But, the one area he drives me nuts is game time management and three areas in particular:

 

1) Challenges

Challenges are risk-reward. I believe time outs are very precious and should not be used as a bargaining chip unless the reward is there. Yesterday was another example of a poor choice. While I think the initial spot was poor and it was likely that Hester was in, there was no need to challenge. The defense had just ran 50 yds chasing Hester, they were tired, you had 1st & goal with a lead and while a TD would help seal it, a FG would have looked good as a consolation prize. Throwing the flag gave the defense a 90 sec timeout to rest and get goal line personnel in and lined up. Very reminiscent of Washington last year. They scored a TD anyway, but gave up a timeout they didn't need to.

 

I also believe late in the game, there are times challenges are better than timeouts. With 3 minutes left and needing to stop the clock or momentum, throw a flag and challenge a catch, the spot, the length of the cheerleaders skirt, anything. Who knows, you could be right and get an extra timeout. It will also be longer than 30 secs giving you more time to rest and regroup.

 

2) Third and long timeouts

I forget the exact figures, but the Bears had a 3rd and 12 or so when Cutler stands up and calls timeout. A FG was the likely outcome of the drive and 3rd and 17 would have been the same as 3rd and 12. I have never seen Cutler coached to take the penalty versus the timeout. They took the timeout in this case, missed the first down and kicked a field goal. Again, scored and gave up a timeout they didn't have to.

 

3) Two minute drill

With around 1:10 left in the half and Atl left with one timeout, the Bears had a first down in FG range. The goal should have been to run the clock, remove Atl's timeout and score before half without Atl getting the ball back. Instead, two short sideline pattern passes and an incomplete pass led to a FG and Atl getting the ball back with a timeout and 50 secs left in the half. This is a Bears team that lost to Atl with 12 seconds (?) left two years ago on a FG. The same team that gave up a 50yd+ to Tom Brady on the last play of the half last year. Two runs into the line would have eliminated Atl's TO and gotten the clock to nothing before kicking a FG to head to the locker room. Luckily, Atl did nothing with the ball before half. If they had and followed up the second half with the opening drive for a FG, the momentum switch would have been big.

 

In yesterday's game, these situations were not critical. But, a well coached team should not get sloppy just because you have the lead. If Lovie would get improvement in his time management, he'd make me much happier as a fan.

[jersey cubs fan]

Lovie is a maddening character. In a macro sense he is a great leader and seems to get a high level of respect from players around the league. His teams have been up and down in his tenure, but in bad times he didn't lose the team and was able to come back to a high point after a low point. I could see him leading this franchise on the field for several more years.

 

But, the one area he drives me nuts is game time management and three areas in particular:

 

In yesterday's game, these situations were not critical. But, a well coached team should not get sloppy just because you have the lead. If Lovie would get improvement in his time management, he'd make me much happier as a fan.

 

Everything you mentioned is spot on. Now that he seems to have allowed for a more professional and aggressive approach to the offense, his time out/challenge issues are the most glaring example of unnecessarily handicapping his own team's effort. I just don't get it. The same mistakes over and over again.

[bukie]

The biggest thing that gives me cause for concern from yesterday's game is that basically every fumble bounce went the Bears way, recovering all 5 fumbles in the game. If the turnover margin was a little more even, the game was likely a lot more even (although the D did shore up a lot after the first quarter).

[Banedon]

Both sharp and agile, Urlacher broke Hall of Famer Bill George's record for Bears linebackers Sunday with his 19th career interception -- on a full layout and going to his left, no less -- in the first quarter.

 

"It would have been really impressive if he had stayed on his feet and got some yards, though," Adams said.

 

Urlacher also scored his fourth career touchdown after scooping up a Matt Ryan fumble forced by 31-year-old Julius Peppers in the third and trotting 12 yards into the end zone.

 

"Did you see how slow that touchdown was?" Adams cracked. "Oh my god, he should have lateralled it to a defensive lineman."

[Guest]

Thank you Facebook for reminding me that a year ago today, I made this wall post:

 

Tony DeMaria P.S. Please leave forever Lovie

 

I think it was after the Lions game in week 1 last year. I can't remember what Lovie did that was so bad but it's funny how much difference a year makes. Not to say that I'm "rah rah" for Lovie but he's certainly given himself some rope in the last year.

 

 

Probably that he went for it on 4th and goal instead of kicking the field goal.

[ConstableRabbit]

Simmons already saying the Bears got lucky on Sunday.

[bukie]

Simmons already saying the Bears got lucky on Sunday.

That's Bill Barnwell. He is technically right that the Bears were fortunate to recover all 5 of the fumbles in the game and as a result force the Falcons offense to become one-dimensional.

[Banedon]

Simmons already saying the Bears got lucky on Sunday.

That's Bill Barnwell. He is technically right that the Bears were fortunate to recover all 5 of the fumbles in the game and as a result force the Falcons offense to become one-dimensional.

 

None of the fumbles the Bears made were ones where the other team really had a chance to get them though. It wasn't like it was a scramble where the Bears were lucky to come up with it.

 

I love how the sportsbook is part of his argument. Cuz they're always right, eh?

[Soul]

If yesterday's win was a luck win, then every win is a luck win.

[Guest]

Simmons already saying the Bears got lucky on Sunday.

That's Bill Barnwell. He is technically right that the Bears were fortunate to recover all 5 of the fumbles in the game and as a result force the Falcons offense to become one-dimensional.

 

You mean like the way the Falcons were fortunate that Cutler's batted ball went directly into the hands of the Falcons defense, creating their one and only touchdown of the day? The defense created the fumbles in the first place. It's not surprising that the group who creates the fumble ends up recovering said fumble. I'll bet the recovery rate isn't a blanket 50/50 chance.

 

The Bears defense played outstanding and set the stage for a victory. Excuses for why they won aren't necessary.

[bukie]

Simmons already saying the Bears got lucky on Sunday.

That's Bill Barnwell. He is technically right that the Bears were fortunate to recover all 5 of the fumbles in the game and as a result force the Falcons offense to become one-dimensional.

 

You mean like the way the Falcons were fortunate that Cutler's batted ball went directly into the hands of the Falcons defense, creating their one and only touchdown of the day? The defense created the fumbles in the first place. It's not surprising that the group who creates the fumble ends up recovering said fumble. I'll bet the recovery rate isn't a blanket 50/50 chance.

 

The Bears defense played outstanding and set the stage for a victory. Excuses for why they won aren't necessary.

Forcing fumbles isn't random, recovering them is. The chance for recovering each individual fumble isn't 50/50, but the chance of recovering any one fumble is pretty close to that. And the Bears aren't particularly adept at recovering fumbles (actually, they were way below 50% recovery last year).

[Banedon]

Simmons already saying the Bears got lucky on Sunday.

That's Bill Barnwell. He is technically right that the Bears were fortunate to recover all 5 of the fumbles in the game and as a result force the Falcons offense to become one-dimensional.

 

You mean like the way the Falcons were fortunate that Cutler's batted ball went directly into the hands of the Falcons defense, creating their one and only touchdown of the day? The defense created the fumbles in the first place. It's not surprising that the group who creates the fumble ends up recovering said fumble. I'll bet the recovery rate isn't a blanket 50/50 chance.

 

The Bears defense played outstanding and set the stage for a victory. Excuses for why they won aren't necessary.

Forcing fumbles isn't random, recovering them is. The chance for recovering each individual fumble isn't 50/50, but the chance of recovering any one fumble is pretty close to that. And the Bears aren't particularly adept at recovering fumbles (actually, they were way below 50% recovery last year).

 

I need more than a flat percentage before I buy into all that. What's the forced fumble recovery rate? Unforced? What's the rate on a muffed punt/kickoff? I just not buying that all fumbles are created equal.

 

Also, the percentage can be made up for in sheer opportunities. The Bears had the 2nd most number of "Opponent fumbles" last year.

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-fumbles-per-game

[JonJayCutler]

Good, keep the disrespect coming, it only makes us better.

 

As for Lovie, I've learned to accept his annoying quirks for what they are. His resume speaks for itself. Three division titles, two NFCCG appearances, one SB appearance, no double-digit loss seasons since 2004, and a record 15 games over .500. I find it difficult to want to rid of a coach who has brought my team this much success after growing up a Bears fan in the 1990s when they were dismal. He has also overcome a generally incompetent general manager.

 

Amazing game yesterday, didn't see it coming at all. Win at least one of the next two and we'll be in great shape.

[UMFan83]

Simmons already saying the Bears got lucky on Sunday.

That's Bill Barnwell. He is technically right that the Bears were fortunate to recover all 5 of the fumbles in the game and as a result force the Falcons offense to become one-dimensional.

 

None of the fumbles the Bears made were ones where the other team really had a chance to get them though. It wasn't like it was a scramble where the Bears were lucky to come up with it.

 

I love how the sportsbook is part of his argument. Cuz they're always right, eh?

 

I would have to think that in 90% of all games, you could make a somewhat cohesive argument that the winning team caught breaks that contributed to the victory. But come on. We just beat a 13-3 team a year ago by 18 points, and the margin should have been more.

 

If Barnwell is throwing luck out there he's just trying to defend his 'bears could be the worst team in the league' prediction that he's currently taking heat for.

 

What were the 5 fumbles? I only remember 3 of them. A strip fumble from a guy that is known for trying to strip/tackle every single time, a fumbled caused by pressure on the QB, Hester dropping a punt return that really was in no danger of being recovered by anyone but him. Sure the Bears recovered all of those fumbles, but you also have to give credit to the team for forcing those fumbles. If I was Cutler fumbling the snap and falling on it under a pile of people, that's luck. If Tillman comes and strips a ball carrier, that's what he does. Sure its lucky the Bears came out with it but you have to give credit to the Bears for forcing the fumble in the first place.

 

It's not lucky that the Bears knocked Matt Ryan on his ass 11 times yesterday. It's not lucky that pressure forced Ryan to put the ball on the ground. It's not luck that pressure forced Ryan to make an ill advised throw caught by a diving Urlacher. It's certainly not good luck that a Cutler pass was batted around 3 times before falling right in the hands of a falcon with open field (but I balance out that with the fact that that one Falcons DB dropped 2 should have been INTs in the game).

 

Bears did a ton of good things yesterday to win that game, and if your focus is how lucky the Bears were to recover all 5 fumbles, you are obviously bitter that the Bears didn't look as bad as you predicted them to be this year.

[Soul]

Yeah, it's pretty bush league to call a team lucky when it looks like your trashing of them is going to turn out to be really wrong.

 

Just say they looked better than you thought they would, and move on. Nobody gets predictions right anyway.

 

That said, this was week 1. Long way to go. I don't expect the Bears will play this well every game, and I'm sure the Falcons are still a decent/good team.

[Banedon]

What were the 5 fumbles? I only remember 3 of them.

 

Ryan lost the one for a TD.

 

Turner lost the one that Tillman punched out.

 

Hester dropped a punt that he promptly picked up and advanced.

 

Cutler dropped one as he rolled out and he fell on it.

 

Hester dropped one that he fell on near the 25.

 

There was no Falcons nearby for any of the last 3 I mentioned.

[UMFan83]

Good, keep the disrespect coming, it only makes us better.

 

As for Lovie, I've learned to accept his annoying quirks for what they are. His resume speaks for itself. Three division titles, two NFCCG appearances, one SB appearance, no double-digit loss seasons since 2004, and a record 15 games over .500. I find it difficult to want to rid of a coach who has brought my team this much success after growing up a Bears fan in the 1990s when they were dismal. He has also overcome a generally incompetent general manager.

 

Amazing game yesterday, didn't see it coming at all. Win at least one of the next two and we'll be in great shape.

 

Yeah at this point, no matter the dumb [expletive] he does, he obviously has this team play good football more often than not.

 

At the point I made the comment, he had made 2 playoff appearances in 6 years, and had gone 3 straight years without making the playoffs, and based off that first Detroit game didn't look like he had anything special going on that year either.

 

But now you look at his resume as currently compiled and you see since 2005, he's had 4 winning seasons out of 6, 3 playoff appearances, 2 conference title game appearances, 1 super bowl appearance, no 10 loss seasons, and I believe the 2nd winningest NFC team during that tenure. When you look at the Bears as a whole during that period, you have to wonder how the hell he managed to lead this team to that status.

[UMFan83]

Also, the percentage can be made up for in sheer opportunities. The Bears had the 2nd most number of "Opponent fumbles" last year.

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-fumbles-per-game

 

THE BREAKS JUST KEEP COMING! Teams just randomly start dropping the football when they play the Bears. How can one team get so damn lucky?

[jersey cubs fan]

As for Lovie, I've learned to accept his annoying quirks for what they are. His resume speaks for itself. Three division titles, two NFCCG appearances, one SB appearance, no double-digit loss seasons since 2004, and a record 15 games over .500. I find it difficult to want to rid of a coach who has brought my team this much success after growing up a Bears fan in the 1990s when they were dismal. He has also overcome a generally incompetent general manager.

 

I've got no interest in dumping him now that they've got a decent coaching staff around him and they are winning games, but that doesn't mean I can look past the god awful decision making involving timeouts and challenges. Those are avoidable mistakes.

[bukie]

I would have to think that in 90% of all games, you could make a somewhat cohesive argument that the winning team caught breaks that contributed to the victory. But come on. We just beat a 13-3 team a year ago by 18 points, and the margin should have been more.

 

If Barnwell is throwing luck out there he's just trying to defend his 'bears could be the worst team in the league' prediction that he's currently taking heat for.

 

What were the 5 fumbles? I only remember 3 of them. A strip fumble from a guy that is known for trying to strip/tackle every single time, a fumbled caused by pressure on the QB, Hester dropping a punt return that really was in no danger of being recovered by anyone but him. Sure the Bears recovered all of those fumbles, but you also have to give credit to the team for forcing those fumbles. If I was Cutler fumbling the snap and falling on it under a pile of people, that's luck. If Tillman comes and strips a ball carrier, that's what he does. Sure its lucky the Bears came out with it but you have to give credit to the Bears for forcing the fumble in the first place.

 

It's not lucky that the Bears knocked Matt Ryan on his ass 11 times yesterday. It's not lucky that pressure forced Ryan to put the ball on the ground. It's not luck that pressure forced Ryan to make an ill advised throw caught by a diving Urlacher. It's certainly not good luck that a Cutler pass was batted around 3 times before falling right in the hands of a falcon with open field (but I balance out that with the fact that that one Falcons DB dropped 2 should have been INTs in the game).

 

Bears did a ton of good things yesterday to win that game, and if your focus is how lucky the Bears were to recover all 5 fumbles, you are obviously bitter that the Bears didn't look as bad as you predicted them to be this year.

There's a difference between forcing fumbles and recovering fumbles. One is predictable, the other is not (on a grand scale). The difference in recovery % between a forced fumble and a muff/drop is lower than the statistical noise associated with fumble recovery. Nobody is saying the Bears got lucky to win, just that the fumbles worked out fortunately for them yesterday. Here were the 5 fumbles:

 

- Hester fumbled after his first completion on the second play of the game (ran into his own lineman), but it came right back to him. Score was 0-0 at the time.

- Turner fumble at the end of the first quarter. Good strip by Tillman, Bears ended up with it at the bottom of the pile. Score was 10-3 at the time.

- Hester's muffed punt return where fortunately nobody was around. Bad muff in a fortunate situation. Score was 10-3 at the time.

- Ryan's "set the ball on the ground" fumble early in the third returned for the TD. Score was 23-6 (and then 30-6) at the time.

- Cutler's sack-fumble in the fourth that bounced right back to him. Score was 30-12 at the time.

 

In each situation, it's not necessarily that the fumble's weren't forced by the D, it's just that actually recovering the fumbles took some fortune, whether it was the situation or the bounce. The Bears are regularly quite effective at causing fumbles, but their recovery rate is right in line with the rest of the league. That often means they recover more fumbles than their opponents as a result of the high volume of fumbles caused. However, their rate isn't any better than anyone else's, and a 100% recovery rate was a bit fortunate, considering the circumstances for each fumble.

 

By the Hester muff, the Bears had basically seized control of the game and forced the Falcons to be one-dimensional, and the D shut down Atlanta's passing game completely after that point.

[bukie]

Also, the percentage can be made up for in sheer opportunities. The Bears had the 2nd most number of "Opponent fumbles" last year.

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-fumbles-per-game

 

THE BREAKS JUST KEEP COMING! Teams just randomly start dropping the football when they play the Bears. How can one team get so damn lucky?

Are you purposely being obtuse here, or do you really not understand the difference between causing fumbles and recovering fumbles?

 

Fumble recovery percentage last year: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/fumble-recovery-pct

[bukie]

What were the 5 fumbles? I only remember 3 of them.

 

Ryan lost the one for a TD.

 

Turner lost the one that Tillman punched out.

 

Hester dropped a punt that he promptly picked up and advanced.

 

Cutler dropped one as he rolled out and he fell on it.

 

Hester dropped one that he fell on near the 25.

 

There was no Falcons nearby for any of the last 3 I mentioned.

 

The Falcon that caused Cutler's fumble was pretty near that one, but on the ground and not really in position to recover it. The Hester reception drop (where he bumped his own lineman) was just stupid, and if anything hurt the Bears on that play because it would've gone for more.

[mul21]

Also, the percentage can be made up for in sheer opportunities. The Bears had the 2nd most number of "Opponent fumbles" last year.

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-fumbles-per-game

 

THE BREAKS JUST KEEP COMING! Teams just randomly start dropping the football when they play the Bears. How can one team get so damn lucky?

Are you purposely being obtuse here, or do you really not understand the difference between causing fumbles and recovering fumbles?

 

Fumble recovery percentage last year: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/fumble-recovery-pct

 

WHOOSH

[bukie]

WHOOSH

Uh, no. I understand what he's spazzing about, and he's still being ridiculous.