What to do with Colvin?

[CubColtPacer]

So Colvin's gotten a bit more playing time lately and his BABIP woes continue. He has had a .715 OPS in August with a .211 BABIP. His total season numbers are a .523 OPS with a .159 BABIP.

 

What do we know about Colvin? We know he can hit the ball a long way. In fact, Colvin probably hits the longest home runs of anybody on the Cubs. We also know he doesn't walk much. Other than that, everything seems to be up in the air. This year he's swinging and missing less and his strikeout rate is down to 22.1%. His HR/FB percentage is pretty low this year for someone with so much power, but that could be partially because his IFFB percentage has spiked. The main thing he's still missing this season though are singles. He has 16 extra base hits and 11 singles on the season.

 

So how do the Cubs deal with him going forward? Should they be optimistic about his power and increased contact this year? Should they be worried about his overall struggles? He's still a very confusing player.

[Prizefight]

He's going to be 26 in less than a week.

 

In 555 career MLB at bats he has 218/278/431/709. He has a career WAR of .7. Sure once his BABIP normalizes a bit he won't be below replacement level player, which he is this year, but his ceiling is falling rapidly imo.

 

He's not going to be a starter on any team winning anything.

[Sammy Sofa]

So Colvin's gotten a bit more playing time lately and his BABIP woes continue. He has had a .715 OPS in August with a .211 BABIP.

 

?

 

.200 .241 .453 .694 .204

[CubColtPacer]

So Colvin's gotten a bit more playing time lately and his BABIP woes continue. He has had a .715 OPS in August with a .211 BABIP.

 

?

 

.200 .241 .453 .694 .204

 

That hasn't updated what happened last night yet.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You let him hang around the team next year as a backup just to fill a cheap roster spot, then if he doesn't do something amazingly unexpected, you let him go next time you feel like upgrading that spot.

[Sammy Sofa]

So Colvin's gotten a bit more playing time lately and his BABIP woes continue. He has had a .715 OPS in August with a .211 BABIP.

 

?

 

.200 .241 .453 .694 .204

 

That hasn't updated what happened last night yet.

 

That fills me with even less confidence when a 1-3 with a walk-night can swing his OPS by 21 points.

[CubColtPacer]

So Colvin's gotten a bit more playing time lately and his BABIP woes continue. He has had a .715 OPS in August with a .211 BABIP.

 

?

 

.200 .241 .453 .694 .204

 

That hasn't updated what happened last night yet.

 

That fills me with even less confidence when a 1-3 with a walk-night can swing his OPS by 21 points.

 

It's a 1 month split for a guy who doesn't play everyday. The numbers can sway wildly.

 

I tend to think Colvin's a guy who could be improving and has enough signs in his numbers that I wouldn't be surprised if he was a starting worthy corner outfielder (albeit a lower tier one). But there's enough uncertainty in his numbers that I'm not sure I ever want the Cubs to give him enough playing time to find out.

[Sammy Sofa]

So Colvin's gotten a bit more playing time lately and his BABIP woes continue. He has had a .715 OPS in August with a .211 BABIP.

 

?

 

.200 .241 .453 .694 .204

 

That hasn't updated what happened last night yet.

 

That fills me with even less confidence when a 1-3 with a walk-night can swing his OPS by 21 points.

 

It's a 1 month split for a guy who doesn't play everyday. The numbers can sway wildly.

 

I understand that. I just don't see what I'm supposed to be impressed by since that specific sway does little except highlight how abysmally bad he's been.

[CubColtPacer]

 

It's a 1 month split for a guy who doesn't play everyday. The numbers can sway wildly.

 

I understand that. I just don't see what I'm supposed to be impressed by since that specific sway does little except highlight how abysmally bad he's been.

 

It wasn't intended to be something to be impressed by but just another piece of data. He probably would be having an very good month though if his BABIP would normalize a little bit.

[davearm2]

FWIW...

 

normalizing Colvin's 2011 BABIP with all singles pushes his OPS to .717 (.250/.301/.417)

normalizing Colvin's 2011 BABIP with a proportionate mix of singles doubles and triples pushes his OPS to .762 (.250/.301/.461)

 

You could arguably tweak those numbers some more to normalize for HR/FB, and push the adjusted OPS a bit higher.

 

Do the same normalization exercise on his career stats, and you get an OPS of .773 with all singles, or .785 with a mix of singles and XBH.

 

Bottom line, with normal BABIP and HR/FB, the guy is probably a mid/high-700s hitter.

Edited August 31, 2011 by davearm2

[WrigleyField 22]

Well until he hits arbitration, at least he'll be cheap. Let him compete with Soriano a bit in LF? They're pretty similar hitters.

[KingCubsFan]

He's too similar of a player to Soriano to have them both in the lineup. And while he may have a higher ceiling, he also has a lower floor.

[Brett]

Well until he hits arbitration, at least he'll be cheap. Let him compete with Soriano a bit in LF? They're pretty similar hitters.

 

And Colvin's defense is just a hair better.

 

But, that said, if the Cubs are counting on Colvin as a future corner OF starter at this point, they aren't paying attention. He's a cheap filler option for another year or two, but it's hard to see him becoming more - even when looking at the normalized BABIP figures.

[Outshined_One]

You let him hang around the team next year as a backup just to fill a cheap roster spot, then if he doesn't do something amazingly unexpected, you let him go next time you feel like upgrading that spot.

 

Sounds about right to me.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

He's a guy who if he's around next year should be around as arguably the first player off the bench the OF and possibly 1B. Honestly I'd like to see him finish strong this year so that he piques the interest of another team as trade bait.

[jersey cubs fan]

You let him hang around the team next year as a backup just to fill a cheap roster spot, then if he doesn't do something amazingly unexpected, you let him go next time you feel like upgrading that spot.

 

Sounds about right to me.

 

Yep.

 

There's really not much to debate about him. He's got 2500+ professional PA with very uninspiring production. he may be able to improve upon his lackluster major league numbers going forward, but that just means 4th or 5th OF.

[davearm2]

You let him hang around the team next year as a backup just to fill a cheap roster spot, then if he doesn't do something amazingly unexpected, you let him go next time you feel like upgrading that spot.

 

Sounds about right to me.

 

Yep.

 

There's really not much to debate about him. He's got 2500+ professional PA with very uninspiring production. he may be able to improve upon his lackluster major league numbers going forward, but that just means 4th or 5th OF.

An OF that can OPS in the mid .700s is closer to a league average starter than a 4th/5th OF.

 

Just looking at bbprospectus:

MLB LFs are collectively OPSing .726; CFs .738; and RFs .783

[sneakypower]

normalizing Colvin's 2011 BABIP with a proportionate mix of singles doubles and triples pushes his OPS to .762 (.250/.301/.461)

 

...

 

Bottom line, with normal BABIP and HR/FB, the guy is probably a mid/high-700s hitter.

even assuming fortunate luck to maintain that line of .760 OPS (hard to do when his LD and IFFB have been utterly woeful) and +10 COF defense, which is right about where he's been, that still amounts to a below-average position player

 

i want Colvin nowhere near the everyday lineup next year

[NonProfitCow]

He's Rick Ankiel 2009-current. Long, loopy swing, no pitch recognition and no strike zone recognition. Can't catch up to the chest high fastball or lay off the slider in the dirt, but can't help but swing. That was the first thing that came to mind watching him a couple years ago and glancing at his stats, and it hasn't changed. Teases you with ability, but lets you down with results.

 

Just my Cardinals fan 2 cents.

[Backtobanks]

Play him and hope that Rudy can teach him something now and during the offseason. If things don't improve, use him as part of a trade package. He might be a decent throw-in for the Rays in a trade to get Upton - power potential, a lot less money.

[NonProfitCow]

Play him and hope that Rudy can teach him something now and during the offseason. If things don't improve, use him as part of a trade package. He might be a decent throw-in for the Rays in a trade to get Upton - power potential, a lot less money.

The Rays are going to want good baseball players for Upton.

[KingCubsFan]

Play him and hope that Rudy can teach him something now and during the offseason. If things don't improve, use him as part of a trade package. He might be a decent throw-in for the Rays in a trade to get Upton - power potential, a lot less money.

Why exactly would we want Upton when our best prospect is a CF?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Why do people refuse to acknowledge that BJ Upton has been bad for 3 years now? He's 27, and to be honest, if Colvin were to play a full season as a full time player, his numbers would likely look very similar to Uptons the past 3 years. Yeah, I'd give Upton a chance, but I damn sure wouldn't give up multiple top prospects for him. I wouldn't use Colvin as a a throw in, I'd build a package around Colvin and maybe Barney if they wanted and a few mid level prospects. My offer would look something like Colvin, Barney, Dolis, and maybe kick them a few older prospects like we did with the Garza trade if they send us something else as well. If they insisted, I'd replace one of the others with someone along the lines of a Watkins/Lake/Gonzalez, but that's about it.

[fromthestretch]

Why do people refuse to acknowledge that BJ Upton has been bad for 3 years now?

 

Probably because that's not an accurate assessment of his production the last three years.

 

He was bad in 2009...offensively anyway.

 

He was a 4+ win player in 2010, which isn't bad at all.

 

He's been about league average (OPS-wise) this season.

 

People look at batting average and think he's a bad player. Accept the fact that he isn't going to hit for a great average and that he's going to strikeout quite a bit. Then realize that he runs well, can hit for decent power, is capable of drawing some walks, and plays a pretty good CF. I'm curious to see what he could do with a change of scenery and a more hitter-friendly environment.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Why do people refuse to acknowledge that BJ Upton has been bad for 3 years now?

 

Probably because that's not an accurate assessment of his production the last three years.

 

He was bad in 2009...offensively anyway.

 

He was a 4+ win player in 2010, which isn't bad at all.

 

He's been about league average (OPS-wise) this season.

 

People look at batting average and think he's a bad player. Accept the fact that he isn't going to hit for a great average and that he's going to strikeout quite a bit. Then realize that he runs well, can hit for decent power, is capable of drawing some walks, and plays a pretty good CF. I'm curious to see what he could do with a change of scenery and a more hitter-friendly environment.

 

His OPS has been nothing to write home about either. If he was at least in the high .700s, that would be one thing, but his OPS over the past 3 years has been I think .650 something, .740 something, and .701 this season. Again, I'd take him, but wouldn't overpay for him.