2011 Arizona Fall League

[Guest]

10/26: Mesa won 10-5 Box Score

 

1B DJ LeMahieu 2/4, R, 2B (4), RBI

RP M. Hatley 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, HR, 3-1 GO-FO, 22-15 pitches-strikes

RP C. Carpenter 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 2-1 GO-FO, 39-23 pitches-strikes

[Guest]

@ProductiveOuts: Junior Lake bunts for a single, then steals 2nd. Aside: how in the hell is a kid from the DR named Junior Lake? #cubs #afl"

[Bruno7481]

One of the latest articles at BP mentioned Lake and the fact that many scouts feel his future would be best suited on the mound and this hot streak in the AFL is delaying that potential development.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

@ProductiveOuts: Junior Lake bunts for a single, then steals 2nd. Aside: how in the hell is a kid from the DR named Junior Lake? #cubs #afl"

 

This now makes it 2 people that I know for a fact has had this thought.

 

Chris Carpenter seems to do be doing alright out there this Fall.

[toonsterwu]

One of the latest articles at BP mentioned Lake and the fact that many scouts feel his future would be best suited on the mound and this hot streak in the AFL is delaying that potential development.

 

With the defensive strides he's made in the last two years, it's hard to fault any organization for sticking with a talent like Lake as a positional asset for as long as possible. He's still shaky defensively, but there's definitely a greater chance that he can stick at short than a couple seasons ago.

[Guest]

One of the latest articles at BP mentioned Lake and the fact that many scouts feel his future would be best suited on the mound and this hot streak in the AFL is delaying that potential development.

 

With the defensive strides he's made in the last two years, it's hard to fault any organization for sticking with a talent like Lake as a positional asset for as long as possible. He's still shaky defensively, but there's definitely a greater chance that he can stick at short than a couple seasons ago.

With the progress he's made in being an asset on the bases, it has added a dimension to his game that makes him a more attractive option on the field, as well. The two big questions with Lake are really one big question: Can he control the plate well enough to avoid k's and get bb's? If he can make even decent progress there in the next couple years, he could be a big contributor. He's going to have speed & decent+ power. He's looking more and more like he can stick at SS. Control the plate and he's a potential star.

 

admittedly...it's a big if.

[toonsterwu]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

 

There's a lot that bugs me about Junior Lake, but then again, once in awhile, I defend him quite a bit (I remember my comparisons to Hak-ju Lee last year). I mean, watching him dive for pitches sometimes, you'd think he was a Rob Deer-ian wild hacker that struck out an exorbitant amount of the time. That said, he's K% is decent, not good, but 22% is livable if he corrects things.

[Guest]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact.

[toonsterwu]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact.

 

The Lake development bugs me a bit more than Vitters in some respect. I can understand a level of pressure felt to push an early first round pick up. Not saying it's justified, but I can understand it (that said, it's easy to forget that they sent Vitters back to Boise that year due to concern on his wrist ... so with Vitters, more than anything, it's been odd decision-making, as if they were overly protective of him then, and then started pushing him off every hot streak he had).

 

With Lake, well, that pressure isn't there, and you'd think letting a guy develop his skills more would make sense. I know some farm directors feel that a player that is absolutely crushing his league isn't in his best interest, but this was never really the case with Junior.

[Rob]

If Lake does end up converting to the mound at any point, I may love him even more. I've always wanted that Brooks Kieschnick type of 25th man.

[Guest]

10/27: Mesa lost 8-7 Box Score

 

3B J. Lake 1/5, K, 2 SB (13)

RF J. Vitters 0/5, E (2, fielding)

[Little Slide Rooter]

Any chance of shifting Lake to 2B or 3B sooner than later?

[toonsterwu]

Any chance of shifting Lake to 2B or 3B sooner than later?

 

Perhaps, but the question is why? With Castro looking debatable as a long term shortstop, there's no need to move Lake to another position as of now, particularly if he is showing any sort of hope of sticking there.

[Guest]

If you're wondering why Andrew Cashner hasn't pitched recently, it's because he tweaked his oblique. It's supposed to be minor and he's expected to pitch today or tomorrow.

 

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-10-27/sports/ct-spt-1028-afl-cubs-chicago--20111028_1_rotator-cuff-tweak-andrew-cashner

[Brett]

If you're wondering why Andrew Cashner hasn't pitched recently, it's because he tweaked his oblique. It's supposed to be minor and he's expected to pitch today or tomorrow.

 

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-10-27/sports/ct-spt-1028-afl-cubs-chicago--20111028_1_rotator-cuff-tweak-andrew-cashner

 

Any time a pitcher (or player, for that matter) hurts part X of his body while recovering from an injury to part Y, I'm slightly leery that part Y isn't completely and totally healed (and he is, thus, compensating, and hurt part X while doing so).

 

I don't have any reason to believe that's the case with Cashner - he's had a clean bill of rotator cuff health for months now - but, still, I get a little nervous.

[bannor10]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact.

 

So Tim, Would you move Vitters Lake and a few others to say the midwest league for the 2012 season? For season long Theo development?

[Guest]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact.

 

So Tim, Would you move Vitters Lake and a few others to say the midwest league for the 2012 season? For season long Theo development?

You can't do that at this point. However, you could be very clear with them that "The Cubs Way" is the way to the majors and that they are going to remain at Tenn / Iowa until they get it.

[Guest]

10/28: Mesa won 10-3 Box Score

 

3B DJ LeMahieu 1/4, K, SB (10)

[Serge]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact.

 

Honestly I'm not so sure that the approach didn't start working on Vitters this year. His walks went down a little bit, but his K's went way down, and his power went up a little. That's encouraging overall. And all else being equal, a low K and low BB guy is better than a high K and high BB guy. I think the big thing with Vitters is more that he needs to stop making so much weak contact than it is that he needs to walk more.

[Guest]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact.

 

Honestly I'm not so sure that the approach didn't start working on Vitters this year. His walks went down a little bit, but his K's went way down, and his power went up a little. That's encouraging overall. And all else being equal, a low K and low BB guy is better than a high K and high BB guy. I think the big thing with Vitters is more that he needs to stop making so much weak contact than it is that he needs to walk more.

It's not so much that he needs to walk more - it's that he simply needs to become more selective. If that happens, he'll both walk more and make more consistently hard contact. Every report on him says that he swings on "bad strikes" and makes weak contact on them. If he'll let those go and wait on a better pitch to hit, he'll improve dramatically.

 

Fortunately, that's exactly what the new regime will be emphasizing.

[Guest]

btw - I'm as high on Vitters as anyone around here. I'm happy with the progress that he made this year. He just needs to build on that moving forward.

[Serge]

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things -

 

a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often.

b) Learns to read spin.

 

Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills.

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact.

 

Honestly I'm not so sure that the approach didn't start working on Vitters this year. His walks went down a little bit, but his K's went way down, and his power went up a little. That's encouraging overall. And all else being equal, a low K and low BB guy is better than a high K and high BB guy. I think the big thing with Vitters is more that he needs to stop making so much weak contact than it is that he needs to walk more.

It's not so much that he needs to walk more - it's that he simply needs to become more selective. If that happens, he'll both walk more and make more consistently hard contact. Every report on him says that he swings on "bad strikes" and makes weak contact on them. If he'll let those go and wait on a better pitch to hit, he'll improve dramatically.

 

Fortunately, that's exactly what the new regime will be emphasizing.

 

Oh okay, yeah I totally agree with that. I'm just too used to people who write him off completely due to his poor walk rate. I think people get too caught up in the notion of "He only walks X% of the time that's not enough." There seems to be a pretty wide bias amongst most saber-minded fans against low K and low BB prospects when as far as I know there's not really a good saber reason for it.

 

If anything, Vitters' biggest problem is easily his glove, not his bat. Being an above average hitter in the Southern League at age 21 is definitely being ahead of the curve.

[Guest]

btw - I'm as high on Vitters as anyone around here.

I'd say higher than most. His progress has been incremental with no great leaps. Frankly, I'm much more worried about his ability to defense. If he has to move off of third he's much less attractive.

 

Hopefully, with the Cub way installed next year we'll all see his potential realized.

[Vinestal]

Vitters and Lake both homered today Vitters went 3/4 scored 2 runs and Lake 1/4

[Guest]

10/29: Mesa won 8-5 Box Score

 

SS J. Lake 1/4, R, HR (5), RBI, K

1B J. Vitters 3/4, 2 R, HR (3), RBI, K, PO

RP A. Cashner 1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, WP, 1-1 GO-FO, 15-12 pitches-strikes

RP M. Hatley 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, HBP, 3-2 GO-FO, 24-12 pitches-strikes

RP C. Carpenter 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 1-0 GO-FO, 12-7 pitches-strikes