Dempster likely excercising option

[Post Count Padder]

Ryan Dempster is expected to exercise his $14 million player option for next season.

Dempster, 34, isn't sure what the team will look like next year with a new general manager coming in, but he lives in Chicago full-time now and is not looking to leave. It's possible he might try to re-negotiate a multi-year extension in lieu of picking up the option. ‘‘Sometimes when you’re sitting there and you have uncertainty and you don’t know, things can be intimidating," Dempster said. "But at the same time, it can be exciting, especially with people like [the Ricketts ownership], and especially Tom [Ricketts]. As much as he’s done in his professional life, to think what he’s going to do with the Cubs is actually kind of exciting.’’

Source: Chicago Sun-Times

Aug 27 - 10:28 AM

I don't know that he's worth $14 mil anymore, but he's been pretty solid after a rough start. I definitely wouldn't mind him back next season, especially since Z is likely done and we don't know what we're getting out of Wells/Cashner.

[Outshined_One]

Can't complain if he does. FIP and BABIP suggest he's run into a decent amount of bad luck this season. SIERA suggests he's had to deal with some rough defensive work behind him, which could very well change next season with the right acquisitions.

 

I'm not so sure about an extension, though. Anything over two years after next season would make me really leery.

[Sammy Sofa]

Fangraphs has him worth just over $12 million this year while being paid $13.5 million, and the Cubs are already well in the black in regards to getting production vs. cost from his deal.

[dew1679666265]

Can't complain if he does. FIP and BABIP suggest he's run into a decent amount of bad luck this season. SIERA suggests he's had to deal with some rough defensive work behind him, which could very well change next season with the right acquisitions.

 

I'm not so sure about an extension, though. Anything over two years after next season would make me really leery.

 

Something like 2/20 might be a good deal for both sides - maybe with a club option for a third year for a little more money. Dempster gets the security likely through the remainder of his career, and the Cubs save a few million for next year if they choose to pursue two major FAs.

 

He's also not so expensive that it's crippling if he falls off a cliff either of the next two years.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If Dempster were to hit the open market, would he not be the 2nd best SP option behind C.J. Wilson?

[toonsterwu]

He'd definitely be a top 3 or 4 arm, off the lists of FA's that I've seen.

 

I'd actually be interested in giving him an adjustment/extension to see if we can gain a bit more flexibility this year, but the most I'd do is two and an option. I think he might take it as well - he's indicated he likes it here for his daughter's sake. He's a good clubhouse guy and one of the few guys, it seems, that's noted as being a strong leader amongst the players. Even if his performance deteriorates a bit, I think it's worth it to keep him around ... if the price is right (I'd say roughly an 11 mil AAV, maybe squeeze it to a 12 mil AAV, nothing more, so roughly looking at a 2/22-3/36 (2012 being the first year) type situation as being something I'd be okay with).

[SouthSideRyan]

Can't complain if he does. FIP and BABIP suggest he's run into a decent amount of bad luck this season. SIERA suggests he's had to deal with some rough defensive work behind him, which could very well change next season with the right acquisitions.

 

I'm not so sure about an extension, though. Anything over two years after next season would make me really leery.

 

Something like 2/20 might be a good deal for both sides - maybe with a club option for a third year for a little more money. Dempster gets the security likely through the remainder of his career, and the Cubs save a few million for next year if they choose to pursue two major FAs.

 

He's also not so expensive that it's crippling if he falls off a cliff either of the next two years.

 

Are you saying on top of the option he picks up? There's no reason for Dempster to take 2/20 when he has 1/14 locked in.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I don't mind Dempster being back at all so long as they add another talented pitcher to strengthen the front with Garza. Dempster is best served as a 3/4 type right now, and that's not a knock on him. He's still solid, and should hold up.

[WrigleyField 22]

Can't complain if he does. FIP and BABIP suggest he's run into a decent amount of bad luck this season. SIERA suggests he's had to deal with some rough defensive work behind him, which could very well change next season with the right acquisitions.

 

I'm not so sure about an extension, though. Anything over two years after next season would make me really leery.

 

Something like 2/20 might be a good deal for both sides - maybe with a club option for a third year for a little more money. Dempster gets the security likely through the remainder of his career, and the Cubs save a few million for next year if they choose to pursue two major FAs.

 

He's also not so expensive that it's crippling if he falls off a cliff either of the next two years.

 

Are you saying on top of the option he picks up? There's no reason for Dempster to take 2/20 when he has 1/14 locked in.

Yea I can't see him only doing it for one extra year of guarantee.

 

I could see two ways:

 

Signs two year extension @ 2/18

2012: 14M, 2013: 7.5M, 2014: 10.5M

Does not pick up option (with agreement to new deal) @ 3/32

2012: 8M, 2013&14 : 12M

 

Adjust numbers a bit perhaps, but something along those lines.

[dew1679666265]

Are you saying on top of the option he picks up? There's no reason for Dempster to take 2/20 when he has 1/14 locked in.

 

It may depend on how long he wants to keep pitching. If he only wants to pitch for a couple years after this one, the security of knowing he'll be a Cub the entire time plus getting a few extra million might be worth it to him. I can see where it wouldn't however.

[CUBZ99]

Please no extension. The Cubs have gotten some decent value out of Dempster over the course of his contract, but age is not on his side. Hope that Dempster does the right thing and goes for the money, while declining his option.

[YearofDaCubs]

Are you guys kidding me? Not a good idea to sign him to an extension. He's been decent after a rough start but he's also getting up there in age. With so much uncertainty with the ball club's future let him exercise his one year deal if he wants to and go from there.

[toonsterwu]

He's putting together his best SIERA season and best xFIP season for his career. While I still view 2012 and 2013 as more rebuilding years (with 2013 as a possible playoff push year), it'd be nice to have a decent rotation so that young arms aren't overburdened and rushed up. Is the possibility there that he will decline? Without a doubt, but I think it's a worthy gamble to see if he will accept an adjustment/extension (or decline his option and sign him down for 2 years). We already need to find one mid-rotation starter for 2012/2013 (with Garza slated in the top role). Letting Dempster go would open the need to find a 2nd one when there are major uncertainties with Cashner, and Wells, if he continues the way he has the last 2 months, likely getting a bit expensive for his skill level. Add in the intangibles, and an extra year on top of 2012 isn't that bad an idea, IMO. I'd be wary of an extra 2 years, but could be open to an option year of sorts that depends on work load and performance. Edited August 28, 2011 by toonsterwu

[Sammy Sofa]

Please no extension. The Cubs have gotten some decent value out of Dempster over the course of his contract, but age is not on his side. Hope that Dempster does the right thing and goes for the money, while declining his option.

 

That would really set the Cubs back if they're already going to be without Zambrano in 2011. I'm not necessarily big on extending him, but him sticking around another year due to his player's option is likely a good thing.

[dew1679666265]

Are you guys kidding me? Not a good idea to sign him to an extension. He's been decent after a rough start but he's also getting up there in age. With so much uncertainty with the ball club's future let him exercise his one year deal if he wants to and go from there.

 

The rotation uncertainty is actually the reason I'd consider giving him a slight extension. Even assuming we sign CJ Wilson this offseason, that gives us just Wilson and Garza as sure things for the 2013 rotation. Z is likely gone (right or not), Cashner is a major durability question mark, and Wells is a major performance question mark. He may well decline, but he's been much better than most people realize the past few years and after a dreadful April he's largely been terrific (other than a July hiccup). You can't ignore the struggles, but being great for most of the season is a real positive.

 

He's actually probably a pretty good candidate to age gracefully. He's been a reliever for a little while, so his arm has had quite the mileage a 33 year old pitcher would, and he doesn't rely on overpowering stuff, meaning as long as his control stays he should be at least decent. If you can get him for $10-12 million a year, you can afford a bit of a dropoff.

[dew1679666265]

Please no extension. The Cubs have gotten some decent value out of Dempster over the course of his contract, but age is not on his side. Hope that Dempster does the right thing and goes for the money, while declining his option.

 

That would really set the Cubs back if they're already going to be without Zambrano in 2011. I'm not necessarily big on extending him, but him sticking around another year due to his player's option is likely a good thing.

 

Yeah, I can see both sides of the argument on extending him, but we definitely need him next year. And there's no reason not to want him back - he's still pitching well (or very well), we have a lot of rotation question marks, and we don't have anybody really making a case to start immediately next year.

[mul21]

I'd definitely be a proponent of a 2 year deal with an option year in lieu of him exercising the option next year. The 10-10-12 idea for a total of potentially 3 year/$32M seems pretty fair all around to me.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Lets assume that we lock in Garza for a while, and sign C.J. Wilson. In 2013, Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Sean Marcum, and maybe but doubtfully Cole Hammels will hit the market. Assuming we go for 1 of those guys, I'd just as soon let Dempster walk after 2012 and fill the other 2 rotation spots from within. Between Cashner, McNutt, Jackson, and Struck, I think this would be a more than sufficent rotation.

[WrigleyField 22]

Lets assume that we lock in Garza for a while, and sign C.J. Wilson. In 2013, Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Sean Marcum, and maybe but doubtfully Cole Hammels will hit the market. Assuming we go for 1 of those guys, I'd just as soon let Dempster walk after 2012 and fill the other 2 rotation spots from within. Between Cashner, McNutt, Jackson, and Struck, I think this would be a more than sufficent rotation.

Other than locking in Garza, those aren't necessarily slam dunk assumptions.

 

The thing is, extending Dempster doesn't make sense because it doesn't help us this offseason. So really the only way it makes sense is to decline the option and sign a new three year deal in which we can backload his years. So for that scenario we would have to decide way before we know if we even have a shot at CJ Wilson.

 

And then in 2013 you never know who will get injured, be extended, or not look as attractive.

 

I think there is plenty of reason to be okay extending him if we can lower his salary for 2012. If he continues to pitch well he is a tradeable asset (or Garza for that matter) if we have a good chance at another guy in 2013.

[dew1679666265]

Lets assume that we lock in Garza for a while, and sign C.J. Wilson. In 2013, Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Sean Marcum, and maybe but doubtfully Cole Hammels will hit the market. Assuming we go for 1 of those guys, I'd just as soon let Dempster walk after 2012 and fill the other 2 rotation spots from within. Between Cashner, McNutt, Jackson, and Struck, I think this would be a more than sufficent rotation.

 

Money/risk could become an issue in that scenario. The guys you mentioned will likely command very large contracts, if they hit the open market at all. With Fielder and Wilson already (theoretically) on the team long term and the possibility for guys like Kemp or Ethier, it might become difficult to give one of those great pitchers huge contracts when we should get adequate production from Dempster for $4-5+ million less per year and multiple fewer years.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a plan like yours, but would kind of wonder if it might become an either/or between Kemp/Ethier and Greinke/Cain. Given how far away our bats are, I think I'd prefer Kemp and Dempster (for instance) in that scenario.

[dew1679666265]

The thing is, extending Dempster doesn't make sense because it doesn't help us this offseason. So really the only way it makes sense is to decline the option and sign a new three year deal in which we can backload his years. So for that scenario we would have to decide way before we know if we even have a shot at CJ Wilson.

 

Couldn't we pick up Dempster's option in order to have more time to negotiate and then re-work his contract? In theory we could pick up Dempster's option immediately, continue to work on a new deal, and then pursue Wilson. If we don't get Wilson, leave Demp's contract alone, let him go in 2013, and then pursue a Cain or Greinke.

[Garwilly]

The thing is, extending Dempster doesn't make sense because it doesn't help us this offseason. So really the only way it makes sense is to decline the option and sign a new three year deal in which we can backload his years. So for that scenario we would have to decide way before we know if we even have a shot at CJ Wilson.

 

Couldn't we pick up Dempster's option in order to have more time to negotiate and then re-work his contract? In theory we could pick up Dempster's option immediately, continue to work on a new deal, and then pursue Wilson. If we don't get Wilson, leave Demp's contract alone, let him go in 2013, and then pursue a Cain or Greinke.

 

But it's a player option.

[dew1679666265]

The thing is, extending Dempster doesn't make sense because it doesn't help us this offseason. So really the only way it makes sense is to decline the option and sign a new three year deal in which we can backload his years. So for that scenario we would have to decide way before we know if we even have a shot at CJ Wilson.

 

Couldn't we pick up Dempster's option in order to have more time to negotiate and then re-work his contract? In theory we could pick up Dempster's option immediately, continue to work on a new deal, and then pursue Wilson. If we don't get Wilson, leave Demp's contract alone, let him go in 2013, and then pursue a Cain or Greinke.

 

But it's a player option.

 

Whoops, completely forgot about that. The reasoning could still work the same way, though. If Demp picks up his option then try to re-work the deal until you find out Wilson.

[WrigleyField 22]

I didn't think you could rework deals already under contract. So him picking up the option would mean 14M for 2012, meaning less money for Fielder/Pujols/Wilson. If its possible to sign an extension and have it shift money away from 2012, I take that back. But the basic premise remains the same, the risk of lengthening his deal is only worth it to save money now.

 

3/32 at 8/12/12 would free up an extra $6M, which I think could be enough to squeeze in Wilson's first year salary, leaving a lot left over to fill our offensive needs and a back end of the rotation guy.