Re: Darvish

[dew1679666265]

Don't understand the defensiveness. All we know is that Dice K went for $51MM and that Darvish, by almost every scouts was considered a superior pitcher. Most people were assuming that the bid would be higher, and apparently Theo bid less than $52MM. Not a very impressive effort.

 

Most people were assuming the bid would be higher, and they were barely right. Dice-K went for $51.something million and Darvish went for $51.something million. If Theo made a competitive bid (which we'll probably never find out) then I'm happy, I don't really care what that number actually is.

 

Theo could have exceeded the amount he bid for Dice-K and still lost to Texas. Losing the bid for Darvish doesn't in and of itself mean the Boston guys were right and the Cubs aren't willing to spend money.

[ctcf]

Gah....this sucks. I was holding out hope. I guess Epstein was burned by Dice K and didn't want to risk it again. Maybe his scouts saw something they didn't like that might limit his ability in the MLB.

 

On the surface, getting Darvish seems exactly what Theo and Co were preaching about when they were introduced, but so far I'm waiting for the acquisition of talent part. Not mad, not frustrated very much, still 100% faith in Theo, etc. I just want something that can make me excited for Cubs baseball next year. So far it looks like I might be tuned out the majority of the year again.

 

The fact that they didn't bid as high as the Rangers doesn't really mean he didn't want him or he felt burned...

 

And yet, the "Cubs are planning on giving up on 2012 and going cheap" hypothesis remains unrefuted.

 

C'mon, Theo, just a little refutation? Pretty please?

 

Why would he need to refute anything, especially on account of losing a blind bid?

[XZero771679666304]

Gah....this sucks. I was holding out hope. I guess Epstein was burned by Dice K and didn't want to risk it again. Maybe his scouts saw something they didn't like that might limit his ability in the MLB.

 

On the surface, getting Darvish seems exactly what Theo and Co were preaching about when they were introduced, but so far I'm waiting for the acquisition of talent part. Not mad, not frustrated very much, still 100% faith in Theo, etc. I just want something that can make me excited for Cubs baseball next year. So far it looks like I might be tuned out the majority of the year again.

This situation is different, though. A team trying for Darvish was basically on their own in determining how much of a posting fee a player was worth and offering it. If you weren't the high bid, there was no chance to increase it, and there was no way to know what other teams would bid.

 

It's really an awful process. Unless the Cubs bid a paltry amount, it's hard to really blame anyone.

[Smack]

Anyone else getting the Asiangirlmatch.com ad at the bottom of their page?

 

Those ads use cookies to be related whatever sites you frequently visit. So...

 

hahaha

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why would he need to refute anything, especially on account of losing a blind bid?

 

The only way he could refute it would be to actually spend some money to add a player of consequence. I'm kind of looking forward to him doing that at some point.

[davearm2]

Anyone else getting the Asiangirlmatch.com ad at the bottom of their page?

 

Don't the ads populate based on other sites you've visited?

It does for me. I keep seeing banner ads for triathlon gear I looked at awhile ago.

[ctcf]

Why would he need to refute anything, especially on account of losing a blind bid?

 

The only way he could refute it would be to actually spend some money to add a player of consequence. I'm kind of looking forward to him doing that at some point.

 

He could also refute it by saying they didn't feel any of the options available were worth the contracts they got. In most cases, he'd probably be right.

[Guest]

General question, why does no getting Darvish mean the Cubs need to throw in the towel? Keep Garza, add pitching depth, sign Fielder and find an upgrade at 2B and this team can still win this division next year and be only 1-2 pieces away from being an excellent team in 2013.

 

Because the team as comprised is really bad and the number of pieces out there that can change that are shrinking rapidly.

 

I'm still going with 74 wins with what we have now, and that's with some awfully generous projections for guys like LaHair and Stewart. Fielder gets you to 78. A second base upgrade gets you to maybe 80. Where are the 10 wins worth of pitching depth to be had out there?

Sadly, this.

 

Start @ ~70 wins.

 

Subtract Ramirez and Pena.

 

Add DeJesus and Stewart.

 

Even assuming good luck, it's hard to get above 75 with the current roster.

 

 

I don't really think last year's team was actually a 70 win team, from a predictive standpoint. But yea, I'd still put this around there. Our pitching is what would keep us from losing 100 games with the current roster.

[ctcf]

Jim, you're supposed to use Chrome Incognito for those sites.

[XZero771679666304]

Why would he need to refute anything, especially on account of losing a blind bid?

 

The only way he could refute it would be to actually spend some money to add a player of consequence. I'm kind of looking forward to him doing that at some point.

 

So if he bid $50MM, it would still mean he wan't willing to spend?

[Northside Blues]

Epstein may have also learned something from the Matsuzaka contract. Maybe he has since become less bullish on Japanese players and decided not to incur the risk again.

[bcl412]

I wonder if a team in rebuilding mode is more fun to watch suck than a team who isn't and sucks.

[Guest]

Start @ ~70 wins.

 

Subtract Ramirez and Pena.

 

Add DeJesus and Stewart.

 

Even assuming good luck, it's hard to get above 75 with the current roster.

 

Using last year as an anchor is a faulty premise.

[CincyCubsFan]

I wonder if a team in rebuilding mode is more fun to watch suck than a team who isn't and sucks.

 

Before Theo came along, this board overwhelmingly believed that "$140 million dollar payroll teams don't rebuild."

My, how things have changed.

[davell]

Sell off Garza, Marshall, Soto, Marmol, and Byrd. This takes payroll down to 80ish mill range. You'll get 2 top 100 prospects for Garza, plus more. 1 top 100 prospect for Marshall. Decent returns for Soto and Marmol. DeRosa like return for Byrd. Add Edwin Jackson for 4/48 and Beltran for 2/30. Puts payroll at around 107. Get Rizzo somehow, even if it's 3 team deal involving Garza. Sign Chen for 4/20. Sign Soler for same. Payroll at 117. If you can get someone to take Soriano for 3/9, go ahead and pull trigger. Midseason go ahead and unload Dempster and Z for whatever we can. Spend as much money on IFA as is available to be had. Spend leftover money on penalties for going over in draft. You've probably got a mid 70's win team this upcoming season, with lots of ability to find out some things about some of the youngsters you've acquired. And tons of cash and assets to load up next offseason.

[UMFan83]

Epstein may have also learned something from the Matsuzaka contract. Maybe he has since become less bullish on Japanese players and decided not to incur the risk again.

 

If that is true, the question remains, why even submit a bid?

 

The only thing I can buy is that it doesn't cost the Cubs anything to submit a bid, so you offer him a competitive but not outrageous amount and hope that the 0.5% chance that the market was very overestimated and your bid wins.

 

Its possible Theo made an offer thinking he'd have a good shot to win, but I am not sure if that's the case. He knows how much it cost for Dice K. Darvish arguably comes with more hype so the offer is likely to be close or more than what Dice K got. Unless he bid something in the $50 mil range (which is possible), he was probably not aggressively trying to get Darvish.

[CUBZ99]

Don't understand the defensiveness. All we know is that Dice K went for $51MM and that Darvish, by almost every scouts was considered a superior pitcher. Most people were assuming that the bid would be higher, and apparently Theo bid less than $52MM. Not a very impressive effort.

 

Most people were assuming the bid would be higher, and they were barely right. Dice-K went for $51.something million and Darvish went for $51.something million. If Theo made a competitive bid (which we'll probably never find out) then I'm happy, I don't really care what that number actually is.

 

Theo could have exceeded the amount he bid for Dice-K and still lost to Texas. Losing the bid for Darvish doesn't in and of itself mean the Boston guys were right and the Cubs aren't willing to spend money.

 

I disagree, Theo set the market for this type of posting. The fact that he didn't exceed his previous bid by less than $1MM tells me that he wasn't serious about winning the bid. As far as what the Cubs bid, we will never know with any accuracy what the actual Cubs bid amount was, because they are sealed.

 

The really frustrating part about this off season is the lack of any movement to improve the team. I realize it is still early in the off season, but as of now every top tier pitcher is off the market and the Cubs didn't end up with any of them. The offense has gotten worse. The only thing the Cubs have done so far is save money from payroll.

[Guest]

Epstein may have also learned something from the Matsuzaka contract. Maybe he has since become less bullish on Japanese players and decided not to incur the risk again.

 

If that is true, the question remains, why even submit a bid?

 

The only thing I can buy is that it doesn't cost the Cubs anything to submit a bid, so you offer him a competitive but not outrageous amount and hope that the 0.5% chance that the market was very overestimated and your bid wins.

 

Its possible Theo made an offer thinking he'd have a good shot to win, but I am not sure if that's the case. He knows how much it cost for Dice K. Darvish arguably comes with more hype so the offer is likely to be close or more than what Dice K got. Unless he bid something in the $50 mil range (which is possible), he was probably not aggressively trying to get Darvish.

 

You're mistakenly making the assumption that aggressively on the Cubs = the same thing as aggressively on the Red Sox.

 

It's possible that whatever his bid was, it was 100% of what the Cubs' budget would allow (within reason), and therefore is as aggressive as he can be. We just have no idea and it's almost pointless to speculate about it.

[Guest]

I disagree, Theo set the market for this type of posting. The fact that he didn't exceed his previous bid by less than $1MM tells me that he wasn't serious about winning the bid.

 

There is a lot more complexity to the posting system than this. Game theory is important, especially when the end result is immediately writing a check for dozens of millions of dollars.

[Clem Fandango]

For some reason I expected it to be way more than $50 million. I guess I just subconsciously assumed it would obliterate the $50 million it took to land Daisuke... not go $1.7 million over.

[CUBZ99]

General question, why does no getting Darvish mean the Cubs need to throw in the towel? Keep Garza, add pitching depth, sign Fielder and find an upgrade at 2B and this team can still win this division next year and be only 1-2 pieces away from being an excellent team in 2013.

 

I'm starting to think that the Cubs aren't going to be in on Fielder. Even if they got Fielder, you still have zero upgrades at any other position this off season.

 

DeJesus is fairly likely to be an upgrade over whoever's spot he takes. Granted, not by much.

 

I would hope, but the Cubs RF's last year combined to put up better numbers than DeJesus.

[CUBZ99]

I disagree, Theo set the market for this type of posting. The fact that he didn't exceed his previous bid by less than $1MM tells me that he wasn't serious about winning the bid.

 

There is a lot more complexity to the posting system than this. Game theory is important, especially when the end result is immediately writing a check for dozens of millions of dollars.

 

I see that point, but you would hope a big market team like the Cubs, with a lot of money coming off the books, would have the flexibility to make it happen.

[WilcoFan]

I disagree, Theo set the market for this type of posting. The fact that he didn't exceed his previous bid by less than $1MM tells me that he wasn't serious about winning the bid.

 

There is a lot more complexity to the posting system than this. Game theory is important, especially when the end result is immediately writing a check for dozens of millions of dollars.

 

I see that point, but you would hope a big market team like the Cubs, with a lot of money coming off the books, would have the flexibility to make it happen.

 

Well, given that it will likely be a $30-40 million outlay for Darvish this year (depending on how much upfront money the posting fee requires be paid immediately), the money may have not been available.

[KaiserCesar]

For some reason I expected it to be way more than $50 million. I guess I just subconsciously assumed it would obliterate the $50 million it took to land Daisuke... not go $1.7 million over.

 

I think Daisuke's struggles along with the economics of the last 5 years kept the market from going way over and taking that kind of a risk.

[UMFan83]

You're mistakenly making the assumption that aggressively on the Cubs = the same thing as aggressively on the Red Sox.

 

So the Cubs, when acting aggressively, are unable to compete with the Rangers financially? I know, new TV deal, blah blah blah, but come on. There is no reason why, if they really wanted to, the Cubs couldnt spend $52 mil on a posting bid for a Japanese player.