Samardzija revisited

[CubColtPacer]

Other than maybe Ramirez, Samardzija could be the most tricky of the Cubs possible free agents this offseason. At the beginning of this year, it was assumed the Cubs wouldn't be picking up his option. In fact, many wanted him released altogether. Has he done enough to change that? Here are his stats by month:

 

April: 15 1/3 IP, 2.93 ERA, 0 HR/9, 9.39 BB/9, 9.98 K/9

May: 14 2/3 IP, 4.91 ERA, 0.61 HR/9, 5.52 BB/9, 11.04 K/9

June: 15 1/3 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.17 HR/9, 4.70 BB/9, 8.22 K/9

July: 14 IP, 3.21 ERA, 0.64 HR/9, 3.86 BB/9, 7.07 K/9

August: 9 1/3 IP, 0.96 ERA, 0 HR/9, 1.92 BB/9, 9.65 K/9

 

Totals: 68 2/3 IP, 3.41 ERA, 0.52 HR/9, 5.37 BB/9, 9.17 K/9, 3.69 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 3.74 SIERA

 

The walk totals are still way too high over the course of the full season, but they have been coming down every single month. The xFIP is high, but Samardzija is an outlier with infield popups which throws that off (15.2% this year and 12.2% over his Cubs career). Fangraphs grades his slider and splitfinger as much better than previous years and he is throwing his slider 10 more percent of the time than he ever has before. His HR rate is much, much better than it was in 2009 or 2010 after not giving up any in 2008 which could either be a severe outlier or an indication of his improved stuff.

 

So is he worth a 3 million club option with a possible 3.5 million club option for 2013? Today, I would say yes. There's enough potential in those numbers to make it worth it. He's a pretty strong pitcher with what he's done this year, and if he truly has figured something out he could be even better next year. But there are certainly reasons to be wary. So has he done enough?

[SouthSideRyan]

Doesn't declining his option just make him a super 2?

[Little Slide Rooter]

According to BBR, he's arb eligible in 2012 and not a free agent until 2016.

 

I really like what I've seen from him this year when he can find the strike zone.

[CubColtPacer]

Doesn't declining his option just make him a super 2?

 

I believe so yes, but Cots lists him as making 3.3 million this year. If that's true, the least the Cubs could offer would be 2.64 million. It might not be worth it to go through that and lose the potential club option for 2013 for that little savings (and they'd have to drag it to arbitration to go that low or settle with Samardzija for a slightly higher amount anyway).

[jersey cubs fan]

It's a one year thing, so I really wouldn't have much of an issue picking it up.

 

I'm not sure the potential for getting him a little cheaper is worth the headache.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

3 million isn't really alot for a good young pitcher. If they can get him cheaper, then sure, but jersey cubs fan said it's probably not worth the effort to try to get him cheaper.

 

He should definitely be back, and I think he's still got some upside left. His stuff is arguably the best in the pen when it's on, and he's definitely got the best fastball on the currently healthy roster (so no Cashner).

Edited August 18, 2011 by KingKongvs.Godzilla

[NCCubFan]

They should pick it up. He and Russell have come on this year and are becoming key parts of the bullpen.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sure, he's made some great strides.

 

Has the ship sailed on him being a starter? I'm wondering if bringing him back could work twofold, both strengthening the bullpen and having him as an option if the injury bug bites again.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Sure, he's made some great strides.

 

Has the ship sailed on him being a starter? I'm wondering if bringing him back could work twofold, both strengthening the bullpen and having him as an option if the injury bug bites again.

 

Given how athletic and relatively young he is as a pitcher....hell no. It's just not happening for at least another couple seasons IMO.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sure, he's made some great strides.

 

Has the ship sailed on him being a starter? I'm wondering if bringing him back could work twofold, both strengthening the bullpen and having him as an option if the injury bug bites again.

 

Given how athletic and relatively young he is as a pitcher....hell no. It's just not happening for at least another couple seasons IMO.

 

So how long would it take him to get stretched out again and ready to go? Let's say hypothetically Wells goes down for a long period of time early next year again; how long until Shark could start in place of Wells?

[CubColtPacer]

Sure, he's made some great strides.

 

Has the ship sailed on him being a starter? I'm wondering if bringing him back could work twofold, both strengthening the bullpen and having him as an option if the injury bug bites again.

 

Given how athletic and relatively young he is as a pitcher....hell no. It's just not happening for at least another couple seasons IMO.

 

So how long would it take him to get stretched out again and ready to go? Let's say hypothetically Wells goes down for a long period of time early next year again; how long until Shark could start in place of Wells?

 

It depends on how they pitch him in spring training. If it is completely as a short reliever than probably it would take a while for him to get stretched out.

[TruffleShuffle]

Sure, he's made some great strides.

 

Has the ship sailed on him being a starter? I'm wondering if bringing him back could work twofold, both strengthening the bullpen and having him as an option if the injury bug bites again.

 

it probably has, because they've jerked him around between starting and relieving a lot, and it's taken this long to get him to a point where he's actually an asset to the team. while that $3-3.5m would look a lot nicer over 200 effective innings, I'm not sure that would happen without a decent changeup and better command.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Sure, he's made some great strides.

 

Has the ship sailed on him being a starter? I'm wondering if bringing him back could work twofold, both strengthening the bullpen and having him as an option if the injury bug bites again.

 

it probably has, because they've jerked him around between starting and relieving a lot, and it's taken this long to get him to a point where he's actually an asset to the team. while that $3-3.5m would look a lot nicer over 200 effective innings, I'm not sure that would happen without a decent changeup and better command.

 

Well he's only got 150 ML innings over the past 4 years so I'm not sure what they've been doing to him has been too damaging. Plus, I like his mechanics when he has them together and he looks like has the frame to handle a starters load if he perfects the rest of the art of pitching.

[jersey cubs fan]

Sure, he's made some great strides.

 

Has the ship sailed on him being a starter? I'm wondering if bringing him back could work twofold, both strengthening the bullpen and having him as an option if the injury bug bites again.

 

it probably has, because they've jerked him around between starting and relieving a lot, and it's taken this long to get him to a point where he's actually an asset to the team. while that $3-3.5m would look a lot nicer over 200 effective innings, I'm not sure that would happen without a decent changeup and better command.

 

Well he's only got 150 ML innings over the past 4 years so I'm not sure what they've been doing to him has been too damaging. Plus, I like his mechanics when he has them together and he looks like has the frame to handle a starters load if he perfects the rest of the art of pitching.

 

Not sure why you just talk about his limited major league innings. He's got 313 of them over the same amount of time in the minors. 463 in total with maybe 200 as a reliever. He's been moved back and forth but at this stage isn't close to being stretch out enough to start. He's recently spoke about wanting to start, but I'm not sure he'd have much of a chance to contribute effectively as a starter, and if you are paying him $3m next year you probably want him to be effective.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Not sure why you just talk about his limited major league innings. He's got 313 of them over the same amount of time in the minors. 463 in total with maybe 200 as a reliever. He's been moved back and forth but at this stage isn't close to being stretch out enough to start. He's recently spoke about wanting to start, but I'm not sure he'd have much of a chance to contribute effectively as a starter, and if you are paying him $3m next year you probably want him to be effective.

 

I already said it'd be a couple of years before he got the shot again. Even then, it probably wouldn't be crazy to try it next ST if they told him say...this October to be ready for it (which won't happen).

[Shilzzz]

can there be made a camp Dempster to turn bullpen arms into starters again?

 

never thought this guy would come around, honestly, but the cutter has been good for him

[jersey cubs fan]

can there be made a camp Dempster to turn bullpen arms into starters again?

 

never thought this guy would come around, honestly, but the cutter has been good for him

 

Dempster was once a 200+ inning pitcher before he was a reliever. He had maybe 1500 professional innings as a starter by the time he was Samardzija's age. It was a matter of going back to what he was. I'm not really sure there's a good comparison there, or that you can have Samardzija do what Dempster did.

[mul21]

can there be made a camp Dempster to turn bullpen arms into starters again?

 

never thought this guy would come around, honestly, but the cutter has been good for him

 

Dempster was once a 200+ inning pitcher before he was a reliever. He had maybe 1500 professional innings as a starter by the time he was Samardzija's age. It was a matter of going back to what he was. I'm not really sure there's a good comparison there, or that you can have Samardzija do what Dempster did.

 

Um, CJ Wilson?

[SouthSideRyan]

Wilson was a starter throughout the minors.

[Shilzzz]

can there be made a camp Dempster to turn bullpen arms into starters again?

 

never thought this guy would come around, honestly, but the cutter has been good for him

 

Dempster was once a 200+ inning pitcher before he was a reliever. He had maybe 1500 professional innings as a starter by the time he was Samardzija's age. It was a matter of going back to what he was. I'm not really sure there's a good comparison there, or that you can have Samardzija do what Dempster did.

 

i was not clear; dempster had a specific offseason plan during the year before which he was planned to go back to working as a starter wherein he did certain things to plan for the workload to come. what i mean is there was a lot of planning. plans. weezing the joo-ooh-suh. reason being that perhaps dempster could share said prepatory structure with samardzija, whether samardzija has pitched a 200+ inning season or not, as surely it would be of some benefit.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The Cubs have held internal discussions about Jeff Samardzija as a candidate for the starting rotation, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. The Cubs have less rotation depth than they did earlier this year, as Wittenmyer explains. The right-hander has started five MLB games, but all 69 of his 2011 appearances have been in relief.

 

I don't know about this. I wouldn't be opposed as him being stretched out as a long man and emergency starter, he couldn't be worse than Russell was. However, I don't see a reason for him to be immediately put in the rotation. With Garza, Dempster, Cashner, and Wells, there's 4 right there, although I wouldn't be opposed to trading Wells at this point if anyone is interested. I didnt use the phrase "sell high", because I think that Wells is at the is what he's going to be stage in his career, a solid 4 starter or above average 5 starter. Who knows what will happen with Z, but I can't imagine it being something that will make any of us happy. Regardless, there is a big need to somehow pick up another front end starter, as close to an ace as we can find. There's also Jay Jackson as an option for the back end, and maybe McNutt or even Struck arent too far away from being decent options. Sharks been good out of the pen, but when looking to upgrade the rotation, we're going to have to look outside the organization.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I'd prefer he perfect his craft and skills in the bullpen before making a move to the rotation, which is entirely possible. The idea is fine, it's just that there's no reason to jump right into it next year when there's still Cashner and whoever else to check out.

[Backtobanks]

It might be interesting to float Marmol's name during the offseason to see what we could get for him with Samardzija, Marshall, Carpenter, Wood, and possibly Cashner (depending on offseason moves) as possibilties to close.

[Brett]

It might be interesting to float Marmol's name during the offseason to see what we could get for him with Samardzija, Marshall, Carpenter, Wood, and possibly Cashner (depending on offseason moves) as possibilties to close.

 

It would have been nice to have more seriously considered dealing Marmol at the deadline, no? Now he's about to get much more expensive, possibly less effective, and probably less important given the makeup of the rest of the pen.

 

/bitter

[davearm2]

It might be interesting to float Marmol's name during the offseason to see what we could get for him with Samardzija, Marshall, Carpenter, Wood, and possibly Cashner (depending on offseason moves) as possibilties to close.

 

It would have been nice to have more seriously considered dealing Marmol at the deadline, no? Now he's about to get much more expensive, possibly less effective, and probably less important given the makeup of the rest of the pen.

 

/bitter

By the same token, I'm perfectly good with them keeping everyone, and letting the next GM make those calls.