can we talk about Starlin Castro?

[Guest]

id prefer Lahair to Castro before his recent slump. but yeah there arent really alternatives. Mainly though his numbers hitting third for his career arent very good and thats what I was speaking to. He seems more comfortable better suited elsewhere.

 

He only has 178 at bats at the #3 spot for us - not exactly a big sample.

 

A sample size >30 is statistically acceptable for the rigorours of analysis. So yeah I think that sample size is a decent sized one.

uh - acceptable sample size depends on a lot of different factors.

[Derwood]

that .010 isoD is pretty sexy

[questionmarkgrace]

id prefer Lahair to Castro before his recent slump. but yeah there arent really alternatives. Mainly though his numbers hitting third for his career arent very good and thats what I was speaking to. He seems more comfortable better suited elsewhere.

 

He only has 178 at bats at the #3 spot for us - not exactly a big sample.

 

A sample size >30 is statistically acceptable for the rigorours of analysis. So yeah I think that sample size is a decent sized one.

uh - acceptable sample size depends on a lot of different factors.

 

 

Obviously Tim, the more data the more precise our estimates are. But in general any graduate and under graduate statistical book will indicate that a sample size of > 30 is sufficient for analysis. Its your confidence intervals that adjust based upon how big your sample size is. In castro's case he actually has 340 plate appearances batting third for the cubs and has put up a line of .268/.287/.371. Im not saying he wont eventually mature to be a 3 hitter but the data tells me that hes not right now.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'm going to have to agree with Castro not being a #3 hitter right now. Call me old fashioned, and I realize the roster isn't strong enough to allow such consistency, but I think he should be thrown in the 2 hole to stay. Even leadoff is probably fine. He's not a 3 hole hitter right now, and honestly long term I'm not all that anxious to see him be the 3 hitter unless he's that good. 3 hole hitter can't be a relaxing spot...historically it goes to the best...maybe too much too soon for a 22 year old.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, I brought this up in a recent game thread, but I'm not a fan of him hitting #3, either. Like it or not, I think players are playing to stereotypical expectations hitting #3, and I think being in that role plays to the worst aspects of Castro being a young, impatient hitter. He's so talented that he's still going to succeed to some degree, but I'd rather see him in a different spot where he's ideally not going to be overly and unecessarily aggressive.

[Geech]

Im not saying he wont eventually mature to be a 3 hitter but the data tells me that hes not right now.

 

No, it doesn't. What the data tells you is that he hasn't hit very well in the number three slot. It does not necessarily tell you whether he is somehow less capable of hitting the three slot.

 

I think you need to be very careful about applying undergrad-style statistical principals to the baseball analysis. We aren't taking a random sample to determine what percentage of a population has blue eyes, we're using non-random samples to try and determine how many wins a given player has contributed to his team, an extremely abstract concept. What's worse, we then try and do things like determine a players "true" talent level and make predictions about his future performance based up a wide range of very complex factors.

 

If you think 30 plate appearances is enough for this type of analysis, you'll be proven dead wrong again and again. We have a lot of baseball history that suggests it's not nearly enough.

[Guest]

id prefer Lahair to Castro before his recent slump. but yeah there arent really alternatives. Mainly though his numbers hitting third for his career arent very good and thats what I was speaking to. He seems more comfortable better suited elsewhere.

 

He only has 178 at bats at the #3 spot for us - not exactly a big sample.

 

A sample size >30 is statistically acceptable for the rigorours of analysis. So yeah I think that sample size is a decent sized one.

uh - acceptable sample size depends on a lot of different factors.

 

 

Obviously Tim, the more data the more precise our estimates are. But in general any graduate and under graduate statistical book will indicate that a sample size of > 30 is sufficient for analysis. Its your confidence intervals that adjust based upon how big your sample size is. In castro's case he actually has 340 plate appearances batting third for the cubs and has put up a line of .268/.287/.371. Im not saying he wont eventually mature to be a 3 hitter but the data tells me that hes not right now.

I see.

 

Please explain to me why you believe that there is causation at play instead of mere correlation. Have you isolated your variables so that the only change in play here is the spot in the order?

 

If that career line of .268/.287/.371 is predictive of his future results as a three hitter, why are his 2012 numbers .315/.326/.426 while batting third? That represents just under half his 359 PA's batting third. Will we see that much improvement again over the next 170 PA in the #3 spot?

[El Duderino]

When was the last time Castro made an error? Seems like he's playing really well defensively.

[Soul]

Yeah, well, at the plate he blows chunks right now.

[questionmarkgrace]

Im not neccessarily trying to do any predictive analysis with castro. THus far, he has not looked like a three hitter given how well he hits in other spots of the line up. He may very well end up as one because he is only 22 years old and still maturing. And yes 380 some at bats hitting third is plenty large enough of a sample size to analyze, extrapolate, etc. the general point I was making.

 

Like Nuts and gum said though hitting third seems to have brought out some bad habits for Castro. Case in point, golden sombrero tonight against the astros.

[TruffleShuffle]

according to fangraphs he's swung at nearly 46% of pitches outside the strike zone. that is a little alarming.

[treebird]

i was talking to my mom on the phone tonight and starlin came up and she used the words "shawon dunston."

 

i blacked out after that and have no idea what happened, but let's just say i am going to be seeing dunston + 30 pts of avg in my nightmares until castro dares to draw 2 walks in the same week.

[Soul]

LOL.

 

 

God, your mom hit you with the nuclear Duston strike.

 

 

Hopefully that's not the eventual destination. But I'd trade Castro anytime given a good return. I'd trade anyone on this team for something better.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, because you're likely to get someone better than your amazing 22-year-old shortstop.

[Sosa21MVP]

Dunston??? Damn. I don't think Shawon even approached a .300 average for a full season until like a decade into his career.

[SouthSideRyan]

Starlin Castro has a higher career BA than Dunston's career OBP

[seanimal]

lookin a lil silly at the plate, but i think he gets made even if he's batting in the 7th spot or whatever. slumpy play or slow starts happen regardless of one's "position" in the lineup. he'll snap out of it and remind everyone he's starlin castro, awesome at hitting baseballs.

[jersey cubs fan]

Im not neccessarily trying to do any predictive analysis with castro. THus far, he has not looked like a three hitter given how well he hits in other spots of the line up. He may very well end up as one because he is only 22 years old and still maturing. And yes 380 some at bats hitting third is plenty large enough of a sample size to analyze, extrapolate, etc. the general point I was making.

 

Like Nuts and gum said though hitting third seems to have brought out some bad habits for Castro. Case in point, golden sombrero tonight against the astros.

 

You think hitting third caused that?

 

 

I think that's a pretty silly contention.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Im not neccessarily trying to do any predictive analysis with castro. THus far, he has not looked like a three hitter given how well he hits in other spots of the line up. He may very well end up as one because he is only 22 years old and still maturing. And yes 380 some at bats hitting third is plenty large enough of a sample size to analyze, extrapolate, etc. the general point I was making.

 

Like Nuts and gum said though hitting third seems to have brought out some bad habits for Castro. Case in point, golden sombrero tonight against the astros.

 

You think hitting third caused that?

 

 

I think that's a pretty silly contention.

I would have used the word "dumb", but I agree.

[Sammy Sofa]

Im not neccessarily trying to do any predictive analysis with castro. THus far, he has not looked like a three hitter given how well he hits in other spots of the line up. He may very well end up as one because he is only 22 years old and still maturing. And yes 380 some at bats hitting third is plenty large enough of a sample size to analyze, extrapolate, etc. the general point I was making.

 

Like Nuts and gum said though hitting third seems to have brought out some bad habits for Castro. Case in point, golden sombrero tonight against the astros.

 

You think hitting third caused that?

 

 

I think that's a pretty silly contention.

I would have used the word "dumb", but I agree.

 

I don't think hitting #3 is causing that, because he's always been and probably always will be an overly aggressive hitter, but I do worry it's not helping. We can sit here and talk about how lineup roles or overrated or irrelevant, but players are probably going to look being handed a spot like that as coming with certain expectations, and in this case those expectations could lead to a very young, overly aggressive hitter to exacerbate some of his worse qualities trying to get things done like he thinks a "#3 hitter should."

 

Of course my thinking on that could just be swayed by how simply do not want him as the Cubs #3 hitter. Yes, I know they really don't have better options. I still don't want him in that role in the long run.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's been batting third all year and was up above an 800 OPS until 2 weeks ago.

 

 

This is nonsense.

[Sammy Sofa]

He's been batting third all year and was up above an 800 OPS until 2 weeks ago.

 

 

This is nonsense.

 

Not necessarily; I already said he's talented enough that he's likely going to succeed no matter where he hits, but the expectations of hitting #3 could be hindering him in certain areas. It's not like we're saying that him hitting #3 is making him bad; we're saying that maybe it's causing him to be even less patient than before and as such he's swinging at more garbage so he's walking even less, striking out more and his power isn't taking the steps up we were hoping it would. There's a difference between "being a #3 hitter is making him suck" and "maybe hitting #3 is exacerbating the flaws in a young, aggressive player's approach."

[Sammy Sofa]

Jersey, out of curiosity, do you want or expect him to be the Cubs #3 hitter going down the line?

[jersey cubs fan]

Jersey, out of curiosity, do you want or expect him to be the Cubs #3 hitter going down the line?

 

Ideally they would have better hitters right now who could fit the bill in the middle of the order and allow him to hit somewhere else. Down the line, I see no reason why he couldn't be the type of hitter to rely on everyday in that spot for years and years.

 

If the 2, 3, 4 in 2015 was Jackson, Castro, Rizzo, that could be pretty cool

[Sammy Sofa]

Jersey, out of curiosity, do you want or expect him to be the Cubs #3 hitter going down the line?

 

Ideally they would have better hitters right now who could fit the bill in the middle of the order and allow him to hit somewhere else. Down the line, I see no reason why he couldn't be the type of hitter to rely on everyday in that spot for years and years.

 

If the 2, 3, 4 in 2015 was Jackson, Castro, Rizzo, that could be pretty cool

 

Personally, I'd want to see Jackson and Castro slid up one spot each and #3 filled with awesome player to be named later, or Rizzo slid up and #4 filled by awesome player to be named later.