Ravech: Doesnt expect to see Hendry next year

[SouthSideRyan]

Cripple seems strong.

[Guest]

Then break it down and show me where the prospects are outside Jackson and Vitters (who isn't doing much).

 

Trey McNutt is the best pitching prospect in the system, has the ceiling of a front line starter (though probably not an ace) and is currently pitching in AA. He's had blister issues this year or else he might be in the majors now or soon.

 

Matt Szczur is a 2010 draftee who is currently tearing the cover off the ball in A-ball, but he was a college draftee (out of UConn) and is expected to rise quickly through the system. Could be up sometime next year if he adjusts to callups well.

 

DJ LeMahieu is already up, probably a bit too early but he has the upside of being a quality second baseman. Robert Whitenack has made some huge strides since being drafted (in 2009 I think?) and was flying up the system until he got hurt in AA. Then there's also Vitters, who could boom or bust, and Brett Jackson who could be up later this year or next season.

 

As Beertown said, there are other impressive guys in single A and guys with interesting upsides in AA. We also had a very good draft and have shown the ability to scout well internationally. The system is probably middle of the pack right now but is improving consistently.

 

Show me how Garza isn't just pitching average overall. Was Archer not one of the top Cubs prospects?

 

There's been a lot of talk about Garza in this thread now, but nobody's posted his numbers - so I will. He has an ERA of 3.84 (best since 2008), FIP of 2.30 and xFIP of 2.76. He's striking out 10.29 batters per nine innings and is giving up 0.27 HR/9. He's inducing more groundballs than he ever has in his career (48.9%) as well. He's walking more than he has since 2006 (3.56) but he's been very unlucky with balls hit in play (.349 BABIP). He's been worth 2.3 wins this season.

 

If he can continue to produce the numbers and peripherals he's started the year with, it'll mean he's turned the corner and is now the ace the Cubs hoped they were getting when they dealt Lee, Archer and Guyer for him.

 

Just a minor point but Szczur went to Villanova.

[Guest]

Cripple seems strong.

yeah - HJL is the piece we're really going to end up missing. Archer may not ever really get control of his stuff. Guyer and Chirinos are mainly just guys (old guys at that).

 

It took a lot of the depth from the system and I would have loved to have Guyer on hand with the OF injuries we've had this year. But cripple seems too strong of a word.

[dew1679666265]

Nitpick, Szczur was From Villanova

 

Yep, you're right. I always confuse the two for some reason - maybe because both seem to have similar football uniforms or something.

[dew1679666265]

Then break it down and show me where the prospects are outside Jackson and Vitters (who isn't doing much).

 

Trey McNutt is the best pitching prospect in the system, has the ceiling of a front line starter (though probably not an ace) and is currently pitching in AA. He's had blister issues this year or else he might be in the majors now or soon.

 

Matt Szczur is a 2010 draftee who is currently tearing the cover off the ball in A-ball, but he was a college draftee (out of UConn) and is expected to rise quickly through the system. Could be up sometime next year if he adjusts to callups well.

 

DJ LeMahieu is already up, probably a bit too early but he has the upside of being a quality second baseman. Robert Whitenack has made some huge strides since being drafted (in 2009 I think?) and was flying up the system until he got hurt in AA. Then there's also Vitters, who could boom or bust, and Brett Jackson who could be up later this year or next season.

 

As Beertown said, there are other impressive guys in single A and guys with interesting upsides in AA. We also had a very good draft and have shown the ability to scout well internationally. The system is probably middle of the pack right now but is improving consistently.

 

Show me how Garza isn't just pitching average overall. Was Archer not one of the top Cubs prospects?

 

There's been a lot of talk about Garza in this thread now, but nobody's posted his numbers - so I will. He has an ERA of 3.84 (best since 2008), FIP of 2.30 and xFIP of 2.76. He's striking out 10.29 batters per nine innings and is giving up 0.27 HR/9. He's inducing more groundballs than he ever has in his career (48.9%) as well. He's walking more than he has since 2006 (3.56) but he's been very unlucky with balls hit in play (.349 BABIP). He's been worth 2.3 wins this season.

 

If he can continue to produce the numbers and peripherals he's started the year with, it'll mean he's turned the corner and is now the ace the Cubs hoped they were getting when they dealt Lee, Archer and Guyer for him.

 

Just a minor point but Szczur went to Villanova.

 

Yeah, SSR pointed that out. I confuse Villanova and UConn in football.

[Guest]

Cripple seems strong.

yeah - HJL is the piece we're really going to end up missing. Archer may not ever really get control of his stuff. Guyer and Chirinos are mainly just guys (old guys at that).

 

It took a lot of the depth from the system and I would have loved to have Guyer on hand with the OF injuries we've had this year. But cripple seems too strong of a word.

 

Fair enough. The system certainly isn't at a point where it can handle the loss of 3 of their top 10 prospects.

[jersey cubs fan]

Nitpick, Szczur was From Villanova

 

Yep, you're right. I always confuse the two for some reason - maybe because both seem to have similar football uniforms or something.

 

You confuse Villanova and Connecticut? Hmm. I sometimes confuse it with Vanderbilt.

[jersey cubs fan]

Cripple seems strong.

yeah - HJL is the piece we're really going to end up missing. Archer may not ever really get control of his stuff. Guyer and Chirinos are mainly just guys (old guys at that).

 

It took a lot of the depth from the system and I would have loved to have Guyer on hand with the OF injuries we've had this year. But cripple seems too strong of a word.

 

It didn't just take depth, it took away some of the best prospects. The system as a whole is just a pile of depth.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They seemed to me to be mostly our "best" by default. The really good ones had already been called up.

[SouthSideRyan]

They seemed to me to be mostly our "best" by default. The really good ones had already been called up.

 

Lee and Archer were top 100 prospects (along with BJacks and McNutt) They were good prospects.

[jersey cubs fan]

They seemed to me to be mostly our "best" by default. The really good ones had already been called up.

 

Those guys were probably top 5 in the Cubs system, which is largely devoid of top end talent. They have lots of guys who could be halfway decent utility players and maybe even positional placeholders while they are cheap.

[dew1679666265]

Nitpick, Szczur was From Villanova

 

Yep, you're right. I always confuse the two for some reason - maybe because both seem to have similar football uniforms or something.

 

You confuse Villanova and Connecticut? Hmm. I sometimes confuse it with Vanderbilt.

 

I think it's the similar uniforms. I picture Szczur in a blue and white uniform and both Villanova and UConn have similar styled blue and white uniforms.

[Guest]

They seemed to me to be mostly our "best" by default. The really good ones had already been called up.

 

Lee and Archer were top 100 prospects (along with BJacks and McNutt) They were good prospects.

 

Heck, Hak-Ju Lee is well on his way to being one of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball in next offseason's prospect lists.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

They seemed to me to be mostly our "best" by default. The really good ones had already been called up.

 

Lee and Archer were top 100 prospects (along with BJacks and McNutt) They were good prospects.

 

Heck, Hak-Ju Lee is well on his way to being one of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball in next offseason's prospect lists.

Yeah, he's been pretty damn good this year.

[SouthSideRyan]

They seemed to me to be mostly our "best" by default. The really good ones had already been called up.

 

Lee and Archer were top 100 prospects (along with BJacks and McNutt) They were good prospects.

 

Heck, Hak-Ju Lee is well on his way to being one of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball in next offseason's prospect lists.

 

Though to be fair, Archer's well on his way to the bottom of the list.

[Splendid Splinter]

The system as a whole is just a pile of depth.

 

Which can be a good thing as you can have several cost controlled players on the team so you can go after a great player or two. Bad thing is that Cubs don't have that great player (could argue Castro is going to become one) on their team right now. As the contracts ends in the next couple years, I think the outlook for the Cubs organization is going to be great (assuming Ricketts is going to get rid of Hendey/etc../get his guys in by this offseason/etc.). It's just going to take time and a couple 70-80 wins seasons (including this year) before they start to be consistently good.

 

Another way to look at it... Now in the next couple years (because of the depth they have in the system), Wilken can go for high upside/ceiling/overslot players (instead of mostly high floor/low ceiling players) in the draft and international signings to possibly to get those top end talents in their system along with the depth (hopefully Ricketts will actually let him and it looks like he is). I believe Wilkens did that in the draft this year and hopefully they will be able to sign most of these overslot guys. Plus the way this season is going, it looks like the Cubs will get a top 5 picks (possibly top 3) next year in the draft LOL. I'm also one of those guys who like what the Cubs do in the international signings, which is spread their budget over a bunch of guys instead of maybe 1 HUGE signing and a couple other small signings.

 

I agree with the person whoever said that the Cubs can be a powerhouse like the Yankees/Red Sox. Cubs got the $$ and the resources to be able to do that (esp if the Cubs get their own network like the Yankees and the team being good consistently).

 

The only problem with this whole post is... that's a lot of freakin' assumptions and as everyone here knows... assumptions is the mother of all &@#^-ups. So I won't be wont be holding my breath, but I got the patience and the hope that it will happen.

[BeerHere]

I just don't see the Cubs competing next year for a couple reasons:

1. The players coming off the books - yeah we gain some salary room but those players need to be replaced. 1B, RF, potentially 3B

2. The rotation is a mess beyond Garza and Z. Demp has been ok lately but....Wells and ??? Cashner is no guaranty next year and McNutt et al are more than a year away.

3. The offense is more than 1 excellent player away from being good - Pujols or Fielder would be great but beyond that....??

4. Soto.....I still don't know what to make of the guy.

5. There is no guaranty that the money coming off the books will automatically go back into payroll. Gate revenue is down which means that concession revenue is also down.

 

IMO....it is foolish to assume that this team will compete next year. I sincerely hope I'm wrong though.

[jersey cubs fan]

I just don't see the Cubs competing next year for a couple reasons:

1. The players coming off the books - yeah we gain some salary room but those players need to be replaced. 1B, RF, potentially 3B

2. The rotation is a mess beyond Garza and Z. Demp has been ok lately but....Wells and ??? Cashner is no guaranty next year and McNutt et al are more than a year away.

3. The offense is more than 1 excellent player away from being good - Pujols or Fielder would be great but beyond that....??

4. Soto.....I still don't know what to make of the guy.

5. There is no guaranty that the money coming off the books will automatically go back into payroll. Gate revenue is down which means that concession revenue is also down.

 

IMO....it is foolish to assume that this team will compete next year. I sincerely hope I'm wrong though.

 

I don't think it's foolish to assume they will compete. It would be a huge disappointment if they don't compete. And if they make the same mistakes they've done in the past, they won't compete. They absolutely should, and could contend in 2012. There are no guarantees. But this is an average offense, and the addition of one excellent player at the right position could make this a good offense.

[Guest]

I just don't see the Cubs competing next year for a couple reasons:

1. The players coming off the books - yeah we gain some salary room but those players need to be replaced. 1B, RF, potentially 3B

2. The rotation is a mess beyond Garza and Z. Demp has been ok lately but....Wells and ??? Cashner is no guaranty next year and McNutt et al are more than a year away.

3. The offense is more than 1 excellent player away from being good - Pujols or Fielder would be great but beyond that....??

4. Soto.....I still don't know what to make of the guy.

5. There is no guaranty that the money coming off the books will automatically go back into payroll. Gate revenue is down which means that concession revenue is also down.

 

IMO....it is foolish to assume that this team will compete next year. I sincerely hope I'm wrong though.

I agree that it is foolish to assume that this team will compete next year. I think it's more foolish to assume that they CANNOT compete next year.

 

1) The players whose salaries are coming off the books next year have not performed at high levels so far this season. Upgrading from Pena to Fielder or Pujols alone adds quite a bit to this team

2) Garza, Z and Demp are a very good start to the rotation. They aren't Halladay, Lee & Hamels, but they are a solid 1, 2, 3. We will have a number of choices for 4 & 5 that includes Wells & Cashner, but also McNutt (who could be ready, if healthy) and investing some of the freed money into the rotation.

3) I agree that the offense is more than one player away. But we'll get continued growth from Castro, a likely upgrade at 2B, even if it is just incremental growth from within, 3B is likely to be better whether it is Aramis or a replacement and something other than a black hole in CF. All of those upgrades are pretty easy because the production from those spots this year has been so bad.

4) He's been in the top 3-5 players at his position in two of his three years in the bigs. He had a slow start, but has had fairly miserable luck on babip so far. He'll provide patience and above average power for the position at the plate. The biggest concern there is health. Hopefully the Cubs go with Castillo or Clevenger as the backup next year and they're not as miserable as Hill when they're in the game.

5) If the team wants the revenues to STAY low, not investing in the team would be the correct way to ensure that. If they want revenues to recover, they'll invest. But there's nothing standing in the way of this happening, so it is certainly not safe to assume it won't occur.

[jersey cubs fan]

3) I agree that the offense is more than one player away. But we'll get continued growth from Castro, a likely upgrade at 2B, even if it is just incremental growth from within, 3B is likely to be better whether it is Aramis or a replacement and something other than a black hole in CF. All of those upgrades are pretty easy because the production from those spots this year has been so bad.

 

I don't think you can list 3B as a likely upgrade, nor expect it to be easy to upgrade it.

[Guest]

3) I agree that the offense is more than one player away. But we'll get continued growth from Castro, a likely upgrade at 2B, even if it is just incremental growth from within, 3B is likely to be better whether it is Aramis or a replacement and something other than a black hole in CF. All of those upgrades are pretty easy because the production from those spots this year has been so bad.

 

I don't think you can list 3B as a likely upgrade, nor expect it to be easy to upgrade it.

So you don't think they can find something better than a .750 OPS out of third base next year? Whether Aramis stays or goes, I expect better performance than that. Heck, I expect a much better performance than that out of 3B by the end of this year.

[CubColtPacer]

3) I agree that the offense is more than one player away. But we'll get continued growth from Castro, a likely upgrade at 2B, even if it is just incremental growth from within, 3B is likely to be better whether it is Aramis or a replacement and something other than a black hole in CF. All of those upgrades are pretty easy because the production from those spots this year has been so bad.

 

I don't think you can list 3B as a likely upgrade, nor expect it to be easy to upgrade it.

So you don't think they can find something better than a .750 OPS out of third base next year? Whether Aramis stays or goes, I expect better performance than that. Heck, I expect a much better performance than that out of 3B by the end of this year.

 

3B is not an easy position to find a great or even good offensive player at. It wasn't easy even 4-5 years ago and it's gotten much harder now. The Cubs best chance for one who's better next year is probably Aramis but that's far from from a guarantee.

[Little Slide Rooter]

They seemed to me to be mostly our "best" by default. The really good ones had already been called up.

 

Lee and Archer were top 100 prospects (along with BJacks and McNutt) They were good prospects.

 

Heck, Hak-Ju Lee is well on his way to being one of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball in next offseason's prospect lists.

 

Though to be fair, Archer's well on his way to the bottom of the list.

 

As long as Castro and Garza both keep doing what they're doing, I wont cry too much about Lee. And McNutt, along with the emergences of Struck, Beeler, and Whitenack are making the loss of Archer easier to swallow and Guyers ceiling is probably Marlon Byrd. Keep in mind that Zach Rosscup has been damn good for us in Daytona as well.

[Guest]

3) I agree that the offense is more than one player away. But we'll get continued growth from Castro, a likely upgrade at 2B, even if it is just incremental growth from within, 3B is likely to be better whether it is Aramis or a replacement and something other than a black hole in CF. All of those upgrades are pretty easy because the production from those spots this year has been so bad.

 

I don't think you can list 3B as a likely upgrade, nor expect it to be easy to upgrade it.

So you don't think they can find something better than a .750 OPS out of third base next year? Whether Aramis stays or goes, I expect better performance than that. Heck, I expect a much better performance than that out of 3B by the end of this year.

 

3B is not an easy position to find a great or even good offensive player at. It wasn't easy even 4-5 years ago and it's gotten much harder now. The Cubs best chance for one who's better next year is probably Aramis but that's far from from a guarantee.

I fully expect Aramis to finish this season around .810 - .820, even after his poor start. If we keep him, I'd expect him to be easily better than .750 again.

 

I know 3B production is way down this year, but I don't believe it would be THAT hard to find someone to post a .775 OPS there next year, which would be a significant upgrade over the current production of .745 from 2011 Aramis.

[Guest]

3B with a .785+ OPS in 2011, minimum 100 PA's: A-Rod, Euclis, Longoria, Beltre. The end.

 

EDIT: Betemit is 5th with a .759.