If the Cubs were sellers right now

[Little Slide Rooter]

What's irrational about rightly pointing out that the Cubs would have difficulty replacing Zambrano's production? Nothing. Unless a deal drops in their lap that's too good to be true there's little argument to just dumping him for salary relief. Even if he is in the stages of a significant permanent decline the Cubs only have him signed through next season so it's not like there's a pressing need to dump a contract that's going to bog them down for the foreseeable future. There's little supporting trading him short of a really, really good return, which they're not likely to get since he's hovering right in that "too valuable to trade but not valuable enough/too expensive to bring back a good enough haul"-zone.

 

Yeah, but, like, who cares? He isn't helping the Cubs this year - no one is - and his $18 million next year could almost certainly be put to better use. Unless you believe he's going to reverse course next year (which is not inconceivable given how dominant he was in the second half last year), I just can't be too upset about losing Z's hypothetical production for 2012.

 

NOBODY is saying that if someone wants to pick up the 18 mil that we shouldnt let them have him. The general consensus is that we shouldnt have to pay him more than 1/3 of his salary to pitch for someone else unless were getting some top prospects. If some team really wants to pick up the remainder of his contract, theres probabbly not a poster on this board who wouldnt happily drive him to the airport. Its similar to the Soriano situation. Sure, it would be better if we didnt have to pay him,but considering the production you get, if you do have to pay him anyway, it should be for us.

I think you're wrong about that. For instance, anyone that believes that the Cubs can contend next year will disagree. Any equation that has the Cubs contending next year includes Z pitching like he has in the past.

 

I wouldnt say that. Say you have a rotation of Garza, Demp, Cashner, Wells, and get lucky with someone like Sheets or Carpenter for cheap, that would be a solid rotation.

[Backtobanks]

Dierkes weighs in (from MLBTR):

 

For Contenders With Deep Pockets

By Tim Dierkes [June 20 at 9:32am CST]

Payroll flexibility is a beautiful thing at the trade deadline, as it allows a team to acquire talent by providing salary relief to the other club. For teams with a little money to burn and an inclination to keep top prospects, here are some players who I think could be acquired mostly by taking on their contracts. This list doesn't take no-trade clauses into account, except for the elimination of Aramis Ramirez.

 

•Catchers: None

•First basemen: Derrek Lee, James Loney, Brad Hawpe, Juan Rivera

•Second basemen: Mark Ellis

•Shortstops: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes

•Third basemen: Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake

•Left fielders: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee

•Center fielders: None

•Right fielders: Kosuke Fukudome, Michael Cuddyer

•Designated hitters: Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui

•Starting pitchers: Javier Vazquez, Kyle Davies, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster

•Relievers: Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Joe Nathan, John Grabow, Jonathan Broxton

I haven't included players on contending teams here, though it's certainly true someone could acquire players like Aaron Rowand and Jason Bay by only taking on their contracts

 

Not that he knows anymore than we do, but if salary relief is the only compensation - forget it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Seems Kosuke should return more than salary relief as well.

[dew1679666265]

NOBODY is saying that if someone wants to pick up the 18 mil that we shouldnt let them have him.

 

I am. Just freeing up the money isn't enough. If I'm going to trade a productive pitcher, I want a good return along with the money freed up. That said, his value probably isn't high enough to pay the entire $18 mil tab plus giving us good prospects, so I'm fine with keeping him next year.

[dew1679666265]

I wouldnt say that. Say you have a rotation of Garza, Demp, Cashner, Wells, and get lucky with someone like Sheets or Carpenter for cheap, that would be a solid rotation.

 

It would be if Cashner stays healthy (much more questionable now than it was at the beginning of the year) and if the flier on a guy like Sheets paid off. If they didn't, though, we'd be running through AAAA fillers and washed up vets again like this year.

 

Z doesn't provide top of the line pitching, but he does provide solid stability. We know he'll pitch a lot of innings and pitch above average or better in those innings. There's a lot of value there.

[dew1679666265]

Seems Kosuke should return more than salary relief as well.

 

Kosuke's an interesting trade option. He plays a traditional power position, but obviously doesn't provide that much power. However, he gets on base like crazy and plays decent defense or better (even though UZR hates him this year). Will teams value the OBP/defense combo or claim he has little to no value because he doesn't hit for power?

[Sammy Sofa]

Seems Kosuke should return more than salary relief as well.

 

Kosuke's an interesting trade option. He plays a traditional power position, but obviously doesn't provide that much power. However, he gets on base like crazy and plays decent defense or better (even though UZR hates him this year). Will teams value the OBP/defense combo or claim he has little to no value because he doesn't hit for power?

 

I think the key to getting a good return on Kosuke is how much of the remaining money for this season the Cubs would pick up.

[dew1679666265]

Seems Kosuke should return more than salary relief as well.

 

Kosuke's an interesting trade option. He plays a traditional power position, but obviously doesn't provide that much power. However, he gets on base like crazy and plays decent defense or better (even though UZR hates him this year). Will teams value the OBP/defense combo or claim he has little to no value because he doesn't hit for power?

 

I think the key to getting a good return on Kosuke is how much of the remaining money for this season the Cubs would pick up.

 

It may come down to that, but if it does I think it's a sign that front offices aren't as progressive as some are made out to be. It's possible all teams will simply need power and nothing else at the deadline, but my guess is a RF who is a 1.5-3 WAR player, fueled largely by power, would bring more than Kosuke.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Dierkes weighs in (from MLBTR):

 

For Contenders With Deep Pockets

By Tim Dierkes [June 20 at 9:32am CST]

Payroll flexibility is a beautiful thing at the trade deadline, as it allows a team to acquire talent by providing salary relief to the other club. For teams with a little money to burn and an inclination to keep top prospects, here are some players who I think could be acquired mostly by taking on their contracts. This list doesn't take no-trade clauses into account, except for the elimination of Aramis Ramirez.

 

•Catchers: None

•First basemen: Derrek Lee, James Loney, Brad Hawpe, Juan Rivera

•Second basemen: Mark Ellis

•Shortstops: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes

•Third basemen: Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake

•Left fielders: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee

•Center fielders: None

•Right fielders: Kosuke Fukudome, Michael Cuddyer

•Designated hitters: Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui

•Starting pitchers: Javier Vazquez, Kyle Davies, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster

•Relievers: Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Joe Nathan, John Grabow, Jonathan Broxton

I haven't included players on contending teams here, though it's certainly true someone could acquire players like Aaron Rowand and Jason Bay by only taking on their contracts

 

Not that he knows anymore than we do, but if salary relief is the only compensation - forget it.

Interesting how it mentions the virtually unmoveable Soriano but completely ignores Carlos Pena.

[dew1679666265]

Interesting how it mentions the virtually unmoveable Soriano but completely ignores Carlos Pena.

 

Yeah including Soriano and Grabow, but ignoring Pena seems really strange. Pena is probably the Cubs' best trade chip, unless they make Soto available.

[SouthSideRyan]

Interesting how it mentions the virtually unmoveable Soriano but completely ignores Carlos Pena.

 

Yeah including Soriano and Grabow, but ignoring Pena seems really strange. Pena is probably the Cubs' best trade chip, unless they make Soto available.

 

He said it was a list of guys that could be acquired just by taking the contract. Pena would require actual talent in return most likely.

[jersey cubs fan]

Interesting how it mentions the virtually unmoveable Soriano but completely ignores Carlos Pena.

 

Yeah including Soriano and Grabow, but ignoring Pena seems really strange. Pena is probably the Cubs' best trade chip, unless they make Soto available.

 

760 OPS so far this year after last season's 732. I'm not so sure he's much of a chip.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Interesting how it mentions the virtually unmoveable Soriano but completely ignores Carlos Pena.

 

Yeah including Soriano and Grabow, but ignoring Pena seems really strange. Pena is probably the Cubs' best trade chip, unless they make Soto available.

 

He said it was a list of guys that could be acquired just by taking the contract. Pena would require actual talent in return most likely.

 

By the time the deadline hits, I dont know how much would be left on Kosukes contract, but Id just as soon take the prospects unless we were talking about enough money to sign a few of our overslot draft picks.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Interesting how it mentions the virtually unmoveable Soriano but completely ignores Carlos Pena.

 

Yeah including Soriano and Grabow, but ignoring Pena seems really strange. Pena is probably the Cubs' best trade chip, unless they make Soto available.

 

760 OPS so far this year after last season's 732. I'm not so sure he's much of a chip.

 

Hes a lefty. hes a slugger. hes a very good fielder. Theres no commitment past this year. Id say hes a pretty good chip.

[Sammy Sofa]

Interesting how it mentions the virtually unmoveable Soriano but completely ignores Carlos Pena.

 

Yeah including Soriano and Grabow, but ignoring Pena seems really strange. Pena is probably the Cubs' best trade chip, unless they make Soto available.

 

760 OPS so far this year after last season's 732. I'm not so sure he's much of a chip.

 

That OPS is dragged down by his awful April, where he put up .159 .289 .175 .464 with no HR and only 5 RBI.

 

Since then he had a May where he went .258 .402 .517 .919 with 7 HR and 19 RBI and June where so far he's posted .226 .344 .509 .853 with 4 HR and 9 RBI. There's a pretty decent chance that if he's still putting up similar numbers into July he could be very appealing outside of that stinky April start.

[Guest]

What's irrational about rightly pointing out that the Cubs would have difficulty replacing Zambrano's production? Nothing. Unless a deal drops in their lap that's too good to be true there's little argument to just dumping him for salary relief. Even if he is in the stages of a significant permanent decline the Cubs only have him signed through next season so it's not like there's a pressing need to dump a contract that's going to bog them down for the foreseeable future. There's little supporting trading him short of a really, really good return, which they're not likely to get since he's hovering right in that "too valuable to trade but not valuable enough/too expensive to bring back a good enough haul"-zone.

 

Yeah, but, like, who cares? He isn't helping the Cubs this year - no one is - and his $18 million next year could almost certainly be put to better use. Unless you believe he's going to reverse course next year (which is not inconceivable given how dominant he was in the second half last year), I just can't be too upset about losing Z's hypothetical production for 2012.

 

NOBODY is saying that if someone wants to pick up the 18 mil that we shouldnt let them have him. The general consensus is that we shouldnt have to pay him more than 1/3 of his salary to pitch for someone else unless were getting some top prospects. If some team really wants to pick up the remainder of his contract, theres probabbly not a poster on this board who wouldnt happily drive him to the airport. Its similar to the Soriano situation. Sure, it would be better if we didnt have to pay him,but considering the production you get, if you do have to pay him anyway, it should be for us.

I think you're wrong about that. For instance, anyone that believes that the Cubs can contend next year will disagree. Any equation that has the Cubs contending next year includes Z pitching like he has in the past.

Or trading Z to a contender now, getting some prospects and then trading for King Felix this offseason. There are a variety of scenarios where Z gets traded that would still work for contending in 2012.

 

To me, it depends on what the Cubs feel Z has left in the tank. If they feel he's not ever going to be the pitcher he was in the past again, then they should trade him while the value is still relatively high. If they feel that he can still have a second half like he did last year, then they should keep him and have one less gap in the offseason.

[Guest]

Yeah, trading Z doesn't mean you're giving up on 2012, but given the landscape(Z's reputation, likely replacements for his production), that's not all that likely a path.

 

Z has been about a 3 win pitcher(of which there are about 50-60 in a given year) for a long time running, and this year is no different. You throw his elite pitcher's hitting into the mix and he's only overpaid by a few million. You would probably be able to put that 18 million to increase total output elsewhere, but considering the rotation would definitely need a jolt without Z, and that there aren't an abundance of options to replace that production in the rotation(it's scarce enough as it is), the only true way you'd end up better off is by going whole hog with offensive improvements and neglecting the rotation and rolling the dice with Cashner/McNutt/etc.

[sneakypower]

i'd love to see Sabathia to opt out of his contract and come here for something like 6 x $18M

[SouthSideRyan]

Z's 18M for next year is cheaper than buying an 18M/Y free agent on the market because it's essentially a one year deal at this point.

[davearm2]

What's irrational about rightly pointing out that the Cubs would have difficulty replacing Zambrano's production? Nothing. Unless a deal drops in their lap that's too good to be true there's little argument to just dumping him for salary relief. Even if he is in the stages of a significant permanent decline the Cubs only have him signed through next season so it's not like there's a pressing need to dump a contract that's going to bog them down for the foreseeable future. There's little supporting trading him short of a really, really good return, which they're not likely to get since he's hovering right in that "too valuable to trade but not valuable enough/too expensive to bring back a good enough haul"-zone.

 

Yeah, but, like, who cares? He isn't helping the Cubs this year - no one is - and his $18 million next year could almost certainly be put to better use. Unless you believe he's going to reverse course next year (which is not inconceivable given how dominant he was in the second half last year), I just can't be too upset about losing Z's hypothetical production for 2012.

 

NOBODY is saying that if someone wants to pick up the 18 mil that we shouldnt let them have him. The general consensus is that we shouldnt have to pay him more than 1/3 of his salary to pitch for someone else unless were getting some top prospects. If some team really wants to pick up the remainder of his contract, theres probabbly not a poster on this board who wouldnt happily drive him to the airport. Its similar to the Soriano situation. Sure, it would be better if we didnt have to pay him,but considering the production you get, if you do have to pay him anyway, it should be for us.

I think you're wrong about that. For instance, anyone that believes that the Cubs can contend next year will disagree. Any equation that has the Cubs contending next year includes Z pitching like he has in the past.

Or trading Z to a contender now, getting some prospects and then trading for King Felix this offseason. There are a variety of scenarios where Z gets traded that would still work for contending in 2012.

 

To me, it depends on what the Cubs feel Z has left in the tank. If they feel he's not ever going to be the pitcher he was in the past again, then they should trade him while the value is still relatively high. If they feel that he can still have a second half like he did last year, then they should keep him and have one less gap in the offseason.

That scenario seems pretty fantasy baseball-ish to me.

 

The fact remains the Cubs need a pitcher like Z (or better) in order to contend next year.

 

Now you're right, if they don't think Z himself can still be that pitcher, the go ahead and sell high. Just do so realizing you're creating another hole that needs to be filled in the offseason.

[dew1679666265]

i'd love to see Sabathia to opt out of his contract and come here for something like 6 x $18M

 

Pitchers in their mid 30s scare me when they're signed to long term deals. CC would be 38 by the time that contract was up and, given that he's a pitcher and he's had a ton of mileage on his arm, that may be a lot of really bad years.

 

On the other hand, he's been remarkably consistently awesome for a while now, so if there was some confidence he could keep it up, I'd have interest.

[Little Slide Rooter]

What's irrational about rightly pointing out that the Cubs would have difficulty replacing Zambrano's production? Nothing. Unless a deal drops in their lap that's too good to be true there's little argument to just dumping him for salary relief. Even if he is in the stages of a significant permanent decline the Cubs only have him signed through next season so it's not like there's a pressing need to dump a contract that's going to bog them down for the foreseeable future. There's little supporting trading him short of a really, really good return, which they're not likely to get since he's hovering right in that "too valuable to trade but not valuable enough/too expensive to bring back a good enough haul"-zone.

 

Yeah, but, like, who cares? He isn't helping the Cubs this year - no one is - and his $18 million next year could almost certainly be put to better use. Unless you believe he's going to reverse course next year (which is not inconceivable given how dominant he was in the second half last year), I just can't be too upset about losing Z's hypothetical production for 2012.

 

NOBODY is saying that if someone wants to pick up the 18 mil that we shouldnt let them have him. The general consensus is that we shouldnt have to pay him more than 1/3 of his salary to pitch for someone else unless were getting some top prospects. If some team really wants to pick up the remainder of his contract, theres probabbly not a poster on this board who wouldnt happily drive him to the airport. Its similar to the Soriano situation. Sure, it would be better if we didnt have to pay him,but considering the production you get, if you do have to pay him anyway, it should be for us.

I think you're wrong about that. For instance, anyone that believes that the Cubs can contend next year will disagree. Any equation that has the Cubs contending next year includes Z pitching like he has in the past.

Or trading Z to a contender now, getting some prospects and then trading for King Felix this offseason. There are a variety of scenarios where Z gets traded that would still work for contending in 2012.

 

To me, it depends on what the Cubs feel Z has left in the tank. If they feel he's not ever going to be the pitcher he was in the past again, then they should trade him while the value is still relatively high. If they feel that he can still have a second half like he did last year, then they should keep him and have one less gap in the offseason.

 

Id love for that to happen, but if the Mariners are smart, they'll keep Felix as long as they can. him and Pineda could be the most dominant 1-2 SP combo in baseball in a few years.

[dew1679666265]

Id love for that to happen, but if the Mariners are smart, they'll keep Felix as long as they can. him and Pineda could be the most dominant 1-2 SP combo in baseball in a few years.

 

I'm not sure I see any real need for the Mariners to trade Felix right now. His salary does jump from $10 mil this year to $18 mil next year, but they have a $94 mil payroll. They do have $59 mil of that committed to 7 players next year, so that may be a consideration as well, but I don't see a pressing need.

 

A massive offer of prospects (Cash/BJax/McNutt for starters probably) might entice them, but it'd take a ton.

[davearm2]

Mods please remove "If" from the thread title.

[SouthSideRyan]

"The Cubs were sellers right now?"