College Basketball 2011-2012

[rawaction]

Butler's not that good. But this was a good test for IU, no matter how you spin it. First team they've faced with comparable talent. Biggest and most athletic team they've faced so far. They are the first time IU has faced that is better coached than they are (will face many more this year). They are the only team IU has faced that will play defense. That being said, Butler did lose to an Evansville team that IU beat by 20. They also played Savannah, Gardner-Webb, and Chattanooga and played them all much closer than IU played them (IU beat all by 25+). But Butler is going to be a tournament team again. If somehow IU shows well enough in conference to even be considered in March, this will be a win to look back on very favorably....probably the best they're going to get in the non-conference.

 

Wednesday will be an interesting game. NC State has a lot of athletic guys on the front line. Don't have the size to Would be a huge road win, bigger than the Butler W. NC State is probably on par with IU. Probably a team that needs a couple upsets to get into the NCAAs. I think the home game gives them the advantage. Win this game, and this team is 12-1 when the non-conference schedule is said and done.

[Formerly Snayke]

I know OU is nothing special, but that's another nice win for SLU.

[Sosa21MVP]

IU with a somewhat sloppy win over Butler by 16. Not sure Butler is all that good anyway, but I think it was probably a big game mentally for Indiana.

 

Curious to see how they play Wednesday night at NC State.

 

Butler's terrible. IU should have won that game by 30 -- though, honestly, if they could make layups (Watford can't), they would have.

 

I wouldn't go that far. Butler still has some guys that can play but obviously it is going to take them a while to get it together. They didn't look very good early last season either. Butler is a team that is good at making a game look ugly and that is how they hang around. I mean Louisville is currently ranked #8 and they played a very similar game against Butler...led by a point at the half, pulled away to a 16 point win. That isn't to say I am comparing IU to UL but I'm just saying to presume we would beat Butler by 30, I can't say I would think that. I figured we would win by double digits and so I'm fine with the result we got.

[Exile on Waveland]

IU with a somewhat sloppy win over Butler by 16. Not sure Butler is all that good anyway, but I think it was probably a big game mentally for Indiana.

 

Curious to see how they play Wednesday night at NC State.

 

Butler's terrible. IU should have won that game by 30 -- though, honestly, if they could make layups (Watford can't), they would have.

 

I wouldn't go that far. Butler still has some guys that can play but obviously it is going to take them a while to get it together. They didn't look very good early last season either. Butler is a team that is good at making a game look ugly and that is how they hang around. I mean Louisville is currently ranked #8 and they played a very similar game against Butler...led by a point at the half, pulled away to a 16 point win. That isn't to say I am comparing IU to UL but I'm just saying to presume we would beat Butler by 30, I can't say I would think that. I figured we would win by double digits and so I'm fine with the result we got.

 

IU didn't play Butler at the end of the season; IU played Butler last night. Whether Butler improves as the season progresses is of no moment. Butler has been bad this year and was bad last night. IU played a miserable first half -- Butler gets some credit for that, they do play tougher, more physical defense compared to the other five schlubs IU has defeated this year. If IU doesn't play better Wednesday night, they'll lose. If they don't play better over the course of the season, they won't win nearly as many games as I'm starting to think they might. I was pretty pleased with the second half, though.

[Sosa21MVP]

IU with a somewhat sloppy win over Butler by 16. Not sure Butler is all that good anyway, but I think it was probably a big game mentally for Indiana.

 

Curious to see how they play Wednesday night at NC State.

 

Butler's terrible. IU should have won that game by 30 -- though, honestly, if they could make layups (Watford can't), they would have.

 

I wouldn't go that far. Butler still has some guys that can play but obviously it is going to take them a while to get it together. They didn't look very good early last season either. Butler is a team that is good at making a game look ugly and that is how they hang around. I mean Louisville is currently ranked #8 and they played a very similar game against Butler...led by a point at the half, pulled away to a 16 point win. That isn't to say I am comparing IU to UL but I'm just saying to presume we would beat Butler by 30, I can't say I would think that. I figured we would win by double digits and so I'm fine with the result we got.

 

IU didn't play Butler at the end of the season; IU played Butler last night. Whether Butler improves as the season progresses is of no moment. Butler has been bad this year and was bad last night. IU played a miserable first half -- Butler gets some credit for that, they do play tougher, more physical defense compared to the other five schlubs IU has defeated this year. If IU doesn't play better Wednesday night, they'll lose. If they don't play better over the course of the season, they won't win nearly as many games as I'm starting to think they might. I was pretty pleased with the second half, though.

 

I just think you are over-stating how bad they are. Based on the raw results of their games, yeah I wasn't expecting much but then actually seeing Butler play last night they aren't totally devoid of talent. Chris-shawn Thomas looks promising, they still have Nored and Marshall...I think Butler will get better for sure. It can't be easy starting the season with an entirely new lineup and rotation. I don't think IU played their best basketball last night either. I think it was good for IU to play a team that gets very physical on defense.

[Magnetic Curses]

myke henry looked [expletive] amazing last night. maturity, poise, athleticism, and skill in a 6-6 230 pound body. he's going to be a bad man.

[Exile on Waveland]

IU with a somewhat sloppy win over Butler by 16. Not sure Butler is all that good anyway, but I think it was probably a big game mentally for Indiana.

 

Curious to see how they play Wednesday night at NC State.

 

Butler's terrible. IU should have won that game by 30 -- though, honestly, if they could make layups (Watford can't), they would have.

 

I wouldn't go that far. Butler still has some guys that can play but obviously it is going to take them a while to get it together. They didn't look very good early last season either. Butler is a team that is good at making a game look ugly and that is how they hang around. I mean Louisville is currently ranked #8 and they played a very similar game against Butler...led by a point at the half, pulled away to a 16 point win. That isn't to say I am comparing IU to UL but I'm just saying to presume we would beat Butler by 30, I can't say I would think that. I figured we would win by double digits and so I'm fine with the result we got.

 

IU didn't play Butler at the end of the season; IU played Butler last night. Whether Butler improves as the season progresses is of no moment. Butler has been bad this year and was bad last night. IU played a miserable first half -- Butler gets some credit for that, they do play tougher, more physical defense compared to the other five schlubs IU has defeated this year. If IU doesn't play better Wednesday night, they'll lose. If they don't play better over the course of the season, they won't win nearly as many games as I'm starting to think they might. I was pretty pleased with the second half, though.

 

I just think you are over-stating how bad they are. Based on the raw results of their games, yeah I wasn't expecting much but then actually seeing Butler play last night they aren't totally devoid of talent. Chris-shawn Thomas looks promising, they still have Nored and Marshall...I think Butler will get better for sure. It can't be easy starting the season with an entirely new lineup and rotation. I don't think IU played their best basketball last night either. I think it was good for IU to play a team that gets very physical on defense.

 

I would agree that their talent-level is better than their result-level so far this year (well, except I still can't understand why people list Nored like he's any good).

[bukie]

It's Big Ten-ACC Challenge time again. This time marks the first time every team in both conferences will play, also. Matchups (KP ratings in parentheses):

 

TUESDAY, NOV. 29

Michigan (32) at Virginia (38) (ESPN2, 7 p.m.)

Northwestern (42) at Georgia Tech (70) (ESPNU, 7:15 p.m.)

Illinois (46) at Maryland (104) (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

Miami (40) at Purdue (12) (ESPN2, 9 p.m.)

Clemson (49) at Iowa (109) (ESPNU, 9:15 p.m.)

Duke (6) at Ohio State (3) (ESPN, 9:30 p.m.)

 

WEDNESDAY, NOV. 30

Indiana (20) at North Carolina State (62) (ESPN2, 7:15 p.m.)

Penn State (141) at Boston College (248) (ESPNU, 7:15 p.m.)

Florida State (18) at Michigan State (14) (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

Virginia Tech (39) at Minnesota (47) (ESPN2, 9:15 p.m.)

Wake Forest (178) at Nebraska (60) (ESPNU, 9:15 p.m.)

Wisconsin (2) at North Carolina (5) (ESPN, 9:30 p.m.)

 

No real neutral court games this year, and the Big Ten team is actually higher rated in 10 of the 12 matchups, while the two matchups in which they aren't rated higher are both home games for the Big Ten team. No really terrible mismatches on the docket, with possibly Wake Forest-Nebraska looking the most lopsided by rating and location.

 

There's no reason the Big Ten shouldn't win 8 or 9 games in the challenge, but winning the challenge overall should be easily possible.

[Exile on Waveland]

The Big Ten should be pretty embarrassed if it loses the challenge this year.

[bukie]

The way I see it, there's three levels of matchups:

 

Gimme - Nebraska over Wake Forest

Should win - PSU over BC (PSU is bad, but BC is the worst major conference team), IU over NC State, Illinois over Maryland, Purdue over Miami, Clemson over Iowa, Northwestern over Georgia Tech

Toss-ups: Virginia Tech-Minnesota, Michigan-Virginia, Florida State-Michigan State, Duke-Ohio State, Wisconsin-North Carolina

 

If the Big Ten teams that should win do win, they'd win the challenge even if they only win one of the toss-up matchups. And 3 of the 5 of those are on the Big Ten team's home floor.

 

EDIT: Pomeroy disagrees. His predictions for game outcomes, from most likely to least likely:

1. Nebraska 73, Wake Forest 62 (86%)

2. Purdue 69, Miami 61 (79%)

3. Ohio State 76, Duke 68 (78%)

4. Michigan State 63, Florida State 59 (68%)

5. Minnesota 68, Virginia Tech 64 (62%)

6. Penn State 62, Boston College 59 (62%)

7. Virginia 56, Michigan 54 (62%)

8. Illinois 69, Maryland 67 (55%)

9. Clemson 66, Iowa 65 (55%)

10. Wisconsin 65, North Carolina 64 (54%)

11. Indiana 75, NC State 74 (53%)

12. Georgia Tech 66, Northwestern 65 (52%)

 

That would still result in the Big Ten winning the challenge 9-3, though.

[BleacherBadger]

Order me a double, Bukie.

 

I don't see us winning in CH. We just don't have the strength in the front court. I hope I'm wrong.

 

36-34 Bucky.

[Exile on Waveland]

I don't remotely believe IU "should" win at NC State. IU is a team that has won one road game in like two years -- and that against a tiny mid-major -- and hasn't beaten anyone of actual note this season (see above for my thoughts on Butler). Pomeroy agrees, for the record. We simply do not know enough about IU to believe they "should" win on the road against a decent BCS-conference team.

 

Oh, and considering Wisconsin at North Carolina a toss-up is completely laughable. You're taking early season Pomeroy way too seriously (except for the IU-NC State game, for some reason). Wisconsin will be lucky if they don't get ran out of the building. That's a blow-out waiting to happen.

[bukie]

I don't remotely believe IU "should" win at NC State. IU is a team that has won one road game in like two years -- and that against a tiny mid-major -- and hasn't beaten anyone of actual note this season (see above for my thoughts on Butler). Pomeroy agrees, for the record. We simply do not know enough about IU to believe they "should" win on the road against a decent BCS-conference team.

 

Oh, and considering Wisconsin at North Carolina a toss-up is completely laughable. You're taking early season Pomeroy way too seriously (except for the IU-NC State game, for some reason). Wisconsin will be lucky if they don't get ran out of the building. That's a blow-out waiting to happen.

Wisconsin hasn't been tested at all this year to this point, so it's difficult to know what to make of them. I think they're better than their poll ranking, closer to their Pomeroy rating. I don't think they'll get run out of the building, because Wisconsin just doesn't get run out of the building.

 

For the record, Pomeroy has done a lot to improve his rating accuracy early in the season, which is why I trust it a lot more than, say, Sagarin ratings at this point.

[Exile on Waveland]

I don't remotely believe IU "should" win at NC State. IU is a team that has won one road game in like two years -- and that against a tiny mid-major -- and hasn't beaten anyone of actual note this season (see above for my thoughts on Butler). Pomeroy agrees, for the record. We simply do not know enough about IU to believe they "should" win on the road against a decent BCS-conference team.

 

Oh, and considering Wisconsin at North Carolina a toss-up is completely laughable. You're taking early season Pomeroy way too seriously (except for the IU-NC State game, for some reason). Wisconsin will be lucky if they don't get ran out of the building. That's a blow-out waiting to happen.

Wisconsin hasn't been tested at all this year to this point, so it's difficult to know what to make of them. I think they're better than their poll ranking, closer to their Pomeroy rating. I don't think they'll get run out of the building, because Wisconsin just doesn't get run out of the building.

 

For the record, Pomeroy has done a lot to improve his rating accuracy early in the season, which is why I trust it a lot more than, say, Sagarin ratings at this point.

 

Wait, you actually think Wisconsin is near the second best team in the nation (that's where Pomeroy has them ranked)? If so, I'm not going to argue further because you've lost the plot. Entirely.

 

As for Wisconsin not getting run off the court, they often do when player teams with superior, upper-echelon talent. They lost to Ohio State by 28 last year; Connecticut by 19 in 2008-09; Duke by 24 in the 2008 ACC-Big Ten Challenge; by 17 to Ohio State in 2007. That's a small a sample size, but it's not often teams play top-level teams like North Carolina (in terms of talent). And those Wisconsin teams had more talent than this year's team. (I'd also refer you to a few NCAA Tournament losses.)

 

I didn't say Sagarin or any other computer ranking is better than Pomeroy at this stage. You should be skeptical of all of them this early.

[bukie]

I think you're being overly dismissive of a team that has played as well as any other in the country to this point. What makes you so sure they aren't one of the five best teams in the country right now?

 

As far as being skeptical of the rating, as I said before, Ken has done a lot of work the past couple seasons improving the accuracy of the early ratings by incorporating preseason analysis based on roster retention and prior talent. The result is much more accurate at this point in the season, and as a result I'm inclined to trust the ratings over the human polls easily at this point in the season (Sagarin a bit less, RPI...well, I never trust RPI).

 

Looking at Pomeroy's top 25 right now:

 

1. Kentucky

2. Wisconsin

3. Ohio St

4. Syracuse

5. North Carolina

6. Duke

7. Louisville

8. Florida

9. Missouri

10. Alabama

11. Marquette

12. Purdue

13. Kansas

14. Michigan St.

15. UNLV

16. St. Louis

17. Belmont

18. Florida St

19. Connecticut

20. Indiana

21. Pittsburgh

22. California

23. Gonzaga

24. Xavier

25. Georgetown

 

The only real outlier in the list is Belmont, and that's because they're 2-2 with losses at Duke (by 1) and at Memphis, and haven't played a home game yet. Teams like IU and Purdue are much higher here than in the human polls, while teams like Creighton, Mississippi State and Baylor are much lower here than in the polls (Misssissippi State is 67 in KP, by far the lowest human ranked team in his system. They're this year's Ball State).

[Exile on Waveland]

I think you're being overly dismissive of a team that has played as well as any other in the country to this point. What makes you so sure they aren't one of the five best teams in the country right now?

 

Because they don't have the talent sufficient to sustain that kind of performance. Not even remotely.

 

As far as "play[ing] as well as any other in the country," they've pummeled scrubs (with maybe BYU excepted) at home or on neutral courts. Their Pomeroy strength-of-schedule is currently No. 323 nationally. (For a comparison, Duke is 7-0 with the twenty-second toughest schedule, including wins over Kansas, Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, and Belmont). Wisconsin has accomplished nothing impressive yet.

[BleacherBadger]

I'm revising my prediction. UNC will keep it close.

 

36-35 Wisconsin.

[bukie]

@KenPomeroy: Preparing the Big Ten/ACC Challenge bar chart for Tuesday morning viewing. Spoiler: The ACC basically has no chance.

[Smack]

Trevor Mbakwe done for the year. I feel Minny's pain.

[Smack]

I don't remotely believe IU "should" win at NC State. IU is a team that has won one road game in like two years -- and that against a tiny mid-major -- and hasn't beaten anyone of actual note this season (see above for my thoughts on Butler). Pomeroy agrees, for the record. We simply do not know enough about IU to believe they "should" win on the road against a decent BCS-conference team.

 

Oh, and considering Wisconsin at North Carolina a toss-up is completely laughable. You're taking early season Pomeroy way too seriously (except for the IU-NC State game, for some reason). Wisconsin will be lucky if they don't get ran out of the building. That's a blow-out waiting to happen.

 

As a Purdue fan, I think IU wins that game. They have a lot of talent. Zeller, Oladipo, and Sheehey especially. Oladipo might be the most underrated player in the conference.

[hawkeyecub]

Mbakwe's loss will wreck Minnesota. It also reduces the B1G's chances vs. the ACC but we should still win.

[rawaction]

I don't remotely believe IU "should" win at NC State. IU is a team that has won one road game in like two years -- and that against a tiny mid-major -- and hasn't beaten anyone of actual note this season (see above for my thoughts on Butler). Pomeroy agrees, for the record. We simply do not know enough about IU to believe they "should" win on the road against a decent BCS-conference team.

 

Oh, and considering Wisconsin at North Carolina a toss-up is completely laughable. You're taking early season Pomeroy way too seriously (except for the IU-NC State game, for some reason). Wisconsin will be lucky if they don't get ran out of the building. That's a blow-out waiting to happen.

 

As a Purdue fan, I think IU wins that game. They have a lot of talent. Zeller, Oladipo, and Sheehey especially. Oladipo might be the most underrated player in the conference.

 

I don't know about most underrated. He was basically just an athlete last year. Thru 6 games this year, he has shown to be under much better control. He's not either trying to dunk or shoot a 25-footer every play anymore, so that's good. The thing with him and Sheehey playing under control this year is now they can stay on the court longer because they aren't committing stupid fouls or getting out of the flow of the offense. They are both averaging 5-8 minutes more this season so far. That makes this team more athletic and stronger defensively. Oladipo can match the quickness of the opposing PG/SG giving Hulls the easier matchup. Sheehey can match the athleticism of the best wing player for the opposition, giving Jones the easier matchup. That should keep Hulls and Jones fresher toward the end of the year, as they won't have to play 32 and 29 minutes per game respectively.

[SpongeWorthy]

Leonard is a specimen

[UMFan83]

Damn come on Michigan. How you gonna lose to Virginia?

[Magnetic Curses]

gritty white hustle right there