Justin Upton on the block?

[SouthSideRyan]

GEOVANY SOTO WAS A CATCHER WITH AN OPS APPROACHING 900 LAST YEAR

[Guest]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=8&season=2010&month=0

[Outshined_One]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=8&season=2010&month=0

 

I like FanGraphs' article on Upton.

 

However, there is a gap between what Upton could be and what he currently is. His blend of power and athleticism has allowed him to succeed despite a lack of contact, but if he’s going to make the leap to the next level, he’s going to have to figure out how to stop striking out so often. In fact, Upton is the only player in major league history to strike out 400 times by the end of his age 22 season.

 

Even if you lower the bar too 300 strikeouts at this point in a career, only Jose Canseco whiffed with anything approaching the same consistency – 24.6 percent of his plate appearances resulted in strikeouts, still trailing the 25.9 percent mark set by Upton so far. If you drop down to 200 strikeouts, you finally find three players with a higher strikeout rate than Justin Upton through age 22 – his brother B.J (26.3%), Sammy Sosa (26.3%), and Reggie Jackson (29.0%).

 

Also, his career home/road splits are impressively stark. Even though it's really common for players to perform better at home than on the road, Upton's .384 wOBA at home and .326 wOBA on the road makes me wonder.

[KingCubsFan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=8&season=2010&month=0

 

Good Player, Not A Superstar

 

2011 – +3.5 WAR, $17.5 million value, $4.25 million salary

2012 – +4.0 WAR, $20.8 million value, $6.75 million salary

2013 – +4.5 WAR, $24.8 million value, $9.75 million salary

2014 – +4.5 WAR, $25.7 million value, $14.25 million salary

2015 – +5.0 WAR, $30.0 million value, $14.5 million salary

 

Total: +21.5 WAR, $118.7 million value, $49.5 million salary

 

That puts Upton at about $70 million in surplus value over what his contract will pay him between 2011 and 2015.

 

Upton Becomes Elite

 

2011 – +4.5 WAR, $22.5 million value, $4.25 million salary

2012 – +5.0 WAR, $26.0 million value, $6.75 million salary

2013 – +5.5 WAR, $30.25 million value, $9.75 million salary

2014 – +6.0 WAR, $34.25 million value, $14.25 million salary

2015 – +6.5 WAR, $39.0 million value, $14.5 million salary

 

Total: +27.5 WAR, $152.0 million value, $49.5 million salary

 

In the best case scenario outcome, Upton is worth over $100 million beyond what he’ll be paid by the time he reaches free agency. This is the Reggie Jackson payoff, essentially. And this is why every team in baseball will at least be exploring whether Upton is priced to move or not.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-uptons-future-value/

So in Soto's best year, his WAR is equivalent to Upton's realistic floor? Regardless, this trade isn't just about next year. Over the next 5 years, it's a pretty safe bet that Upton will be much more valuable, given Soto's age, position and injury history. Upton has Hall of Fame talent and has been successful in the majors at a very young age. With a team far from being a World Series, he's exactly the type of player you should be buying low on.

[rawaction]

Tough call on trading Soto, because he is a C and Upton is a RF, which is much easier to fill with an .850+ OPS. But you're talking about a 23-year vs. a 28-year old to be. Catchers have short shelf-lives anyway, so you could be talking about a guy with 3-4 good years left vs. a guy that could be a top player for 7-8 more years.

 

That being said, you are also talking about a player in Soto who has been an elite producer for his position 2 of his 3 years in the majors. While Upton has only had 1 such season out of 3, and regressed mostly last year.

[jersey cubs fan]

Tough call on trading Soto, because he is a C and Upton is a RF, which is much easier to fill with an .850+ OPS. But you're talking about a 23-year vs. a 28-year old to be. Catchers have short shelf-lives anyway, so you could be talking about a guy with 3-4 good years left vs. a guy that could be a top player for 7-8 more years.

 

That being said, you are also talking about a player in Soto who has been an elite producer for his position 2 of his 3 years in the majors. While Upton has only had 1 such season out of 3, and regressed mostly last year.

 

And the replacement catcher could absolutely suck while the fill-in RF could be fine.

[Guest]

No one's saying that Upton isn't a great trade target, or that he's a lesser value than Soto going forward. The point is that you mute the immediate benefit of adding Upton when you trade one of if not the best hitter on the team in order to get him. Send either Jackson, send Vitters, or Archer, even Colvin if that's what tickles Arizona's fancy. Prospects and non-essential MLB pieces are how you take a big leap forward with a trade for someone like Upton, not by trading Soto and tacking on a couple marginal wins the same way that signing Orlando Hudson would.

[rawaction]

No one's saying that Upton isn't a great trade target, or that he's a lesser value than Soto going forward. The point is that you mute the immediate benefit of adding Upton when you trade one of if not the best hitter on the team in order to get him. Send either Jackson, send Vitters, or Archer, even Colvin if that's what tickles Arizona's fancy. Prospects and non-essential MLB pieces are how you take a big leap forward with a trade for someone like Upton, not by trading Soto and tacking on a couple marginal wins the same way that signing Orlando Hudson would.

 

I agree with you. Just saying, if it came down to Soto or bust......be a tough decision. I probably wouldn't do it either, even if Upton becomes as good as he can be.

[Guest]

No one's saying that Upton isn't a great trade target, or that he's a lesser value than Soto going forward. The point is that you mute the immediate benefit of adding Upton when you trade one of if not the best hitter on the team in order to get him. Send either Jackson, send Vitters, or Archer, even Colvin if that's what tickles Arizona's fancy. Prospects and non-essential MLB pieces are how you take a big leap forward with a trade for someone like Upton, not by trading Soto and tacking on a couple marginal wins the same way that signing Orlando Hudson would.

I think it depends on where you believe the team to be at. If you don't feel that we could realistically compete in the next couple of years, than trading Soto for Upton would make a lot of sense.

 

However, since I don't feel we are that far away, I would do everything I could to not involve Soto in the discussions.

[SouthSideRyan]

If you feel we can't compete in the next few years, why would you spend all that money on Upton just for the right to re-sign him to a 20M/Y deal when you can compete?

[davell]

On MLBTR, I saw a mention that the Marlins and Rays were 2 teams that have shown lots of interest. An exec said that Nolasco and Morrison would probably get it done. So, I guess the question becomes what equals or beats that from our system? Nolasco's stats look pretty pedestrian other than one season, but his WAR has been quite a bit higher than I would have thought. Is he a bad luck pitcher? At any rate, he's about to get pricey, so he's probably not an absolute perfect fit for the D-Backs.(other than they could say they replaced Haren with him).

 

I like Logan Morrison quite a bit, but am stil not convinced he'll ever hit for alot of power. He had an excellent debut this past year though.

 

Still, I think a package of Archer, McNutt, or Cashner plus Colvin and one of Vitters/Lee/Guyer/Jay Jackson trumps that package from the Marlins.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's time to package Wells as a great value pitcher to a lower payroll team.

[davell]

It's time to package Wells as a great value pitcher to a lower payroll team.

 

I wonder what kind of value he has around the league? Is he well thought of or is he considered a guy who's not likely to make our rotation next season? If he's got solid value, I'd be all for trading him anyway.

[Cubswin11]

It's time to package Wells as a great value pitcher to a lower payroll team.

I am totally on board with this. (Not necessarily in a deal for Upton, but a lower payroll team like you mentioned. Assuming his perception league wide is he is a viable #3/4 starter in a good-above average rotation)

[Clem Fandango]

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that while the Yankees have fallen short, the Red Sox are still engaged in trade talks with the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.

Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers has downplayed trade chatter as "people kicking the tires," but it's possible that a trade could be closer than we first realized. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported earlier today that the Diamondbacks have a growing belief that they will trade Upton based on the amount of interest.

[davell]

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that while the Yankees have fallen short, the Red Sox are still engaged in trade talks with the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton.

Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers has downplayed trade chatter as "people kicking the tires," but it's possible that a trade could be closer than we first realized. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported earlier today that the Diamondbacks have a growing belief that they will trade Upton based on the amount of interest.

 

Kalish and Kelly, along with Doubront possibly? If Upton is actually dealt, I'll be extremely disappointed if Hendry doesn't hook up with his boy Towers at some point to try and make something work.....

[KingCubsFan]

If you feel we can't compete in the next few years, why would you spend all that money on Upton just for the right to re-sign him to a 20M/Y deal when you can compete?

There's a big difference between thinking we won't compete in 2011 and thinking we won't compete by 2015.

[davell]

Read a nice article on what the D-Backs would probably be wanting in return. Probably 4-5 players with 3 of them being major league ready or already in the bigs. They have holes in LF, the bullpen, the rotation and 1B, not to mention the hole trading Upton creates. We could definitely send them "major leaguers" anyway, as Colvin, Wells, Coleman, and Cashner could all be considered needs for them. So, maybe some package including some of them and maybe one bigtime prospect from us could get it done?

 

Another thought was he could fetch an established big leaguer, 2 top 10 prospects and a lower level guy as well. Either way, we've got the pieces to make these type of deals.

 

However, later on in the article, it mentions that the Yankees and Red Sox may be the only 2 teams around wiling to take on the risk of the last few years of Upton's deal. His contract is as follows, by the way: 4.25 in 2001, 6.75 in 2012, 9.75 in 2013, 14.25 in 2014, and 14.75 in 2015. The author acts like he's not going to be worth that kind of money at the latter stages of his deal, but since he's going to be in his prime at that point, I can't really see this as being a bigtime issue personally. Does anyone else?

 

With our supposed money lockdown, this seems like the best chance we've got to get an impact player this offseason, who's actually affordable. I think you've got to take this kind of chance, don't you?

[erik316wttn]

I'd be totally ok with selling high on Wells this offseason assuming we got percieved market value for him, or if he was part of a package for a big-name player.

[imb]

why in the word would we trade soto in a deal for upton

 

yes, let's considerably weaken like our one position of strength for like 0.2 wins or whatever. great call.

[dew1679666265]

It's time to package Wells as a great value pitcher to a lower payroll team.

 

Yeah, he could have a ton of value to a team like Arizona. Would Wells/B Jackson come close to matching the Marlins' theorized Nolasco/Morrison? Morrison has more value than Jackson, I'm guessing, but Wells should be more valuable than Nolasco since he's younger and will be cheaper longer.

[dew1679666265]

why in the word would we trade soto in a deal for upton

 

yes, let's considerably weaken like our one position of strength for like 0.2 wins or whatever. great call.

 

The thinking would be that Soto would be likely to decline in the next 2-4 years, while Upton is only getting better over that timespan. However, it's too difficult to find even a capable offensive catcher – much less a stud like Soto – to trade him for a right fielder – even a potential stud like Upton.

[Clem Fandango]

I wouldn't consider trading Soto in this situation, but I would imagine if the Cubs did trade Soto they would retain Koyie Hill instead of possibly non-tendering him this offseason, which means we'd be facing the decision of...

 

Koyie Hill + Justin Upton vs. Geovany Soto + Tyler Colvin

 

Or if they let Hill go it'd be Castillo + Upton. Just doesn't seem right. If you try and trade for Upton, you do so without including Soto or Castro at all costs. And in that situation the Cubs probably fall short of what it takes to get him.

 

Or if you do trade Soto in a package deal, you request they send Miguel Montero with Upton so you have some semblance of an offensive threat behind the plate

[KingCubsFan]

For the people who would not consider trading Soto for Upton: Would you trade Soto for Mike Trout?

[davell]

For the people who would not consider trading Soto for Upton: Would you trade Soto for Mike Trout?

 

Personally, my answer is no. To me, Soto/Brett Jackson > Castillo/Trout. Mainly because I don't think I can turn Brett Jackson into a very solid hitting catcher if I have the second scenario in tow.