Re: 2010 Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[Outshined_One]

Just thought I'd get this up in advance so we have a centralized place for various Cubs top prospect lists. NSBB will once again be doing a Top Cubs Prospects list, which will be posted and discussed at a later time.

 

I'm also curious to see what everyone's rankings look like on NSBB. Despite a lot of big names graduating (Cashner and Castro), the Cubs made some interesting trades (Lopez and Wallach) and had an interesting draft, to say the least.

 

So, some questions for discussion...

 

1) Who is the top prospect in this system?

2) Who is underrated?

3) Who is overrated?

[toonsterwu]

1. I gotta still stick with Brett Jackson as the top prospect. There's simply too many concerns (relatively speaking) on Archer for me, and I want to see how McNutt does in AA as batters get to see him more. I know there's a sprinkling of voices out there expressing mild concern with Brett's defense in CF, but he did have a long year, and overall, I don't think I'm too concerned about his CF defense through his cost-controlled years. He might not have the ceiling of Archer and McNutt (relative to their positions - even then, that is debatable as well), but as a possible starting caliber CF in the bigs, his value, IMO, is higher.

 

2/3. I've only done a quick run-through on my list. I do wonder if

 

A) Chris Carpenter is somewhat under ... well, maybe not underrated, but maybe underhyped. It's quite possible that a guy like Kenny McNutt becomes Chris Carpenter-ish. I think he'll be better than Carpenter, but there might be some SNTS that somewhat gets Carpenter lost in the discussion.

 

B) With the clumping of guys after our top 8 (I've got about 15 guys after our top 8 that I could order a number of ways and feel somewhat comfortable with), underrated and overrated might come down to individual preferences.

 

C) Guys like Jeffry Antigua and Su-min Jung are sort of lost in the discussion at times. I'm not ready to say underrated, just that they might be a little under-hyped. While Antigua might not have the ceiling that some had hoped for, he's still a solid lefty rotation prospect who had a solid A ball campaign. Jung certainly didn't do anything to deflate his value.

 

D) Robinson Lopez will get overhyped and maybe overrated, based off his fastball. To that extent

 

E) I mildly wonder if Alberto Cabrera gets underrated. He's a very intriguing arm who had a solid season at A+. Struggling in AA shouldn't be that big a deal. I do wonder if he's more a pen type, but he had a solid year and is promising.

 

F) I'm not sure this is an underrated thing, but one of my favorite sleepers in the system is sitll Frank Batista. I don't expect him to garner much Top 30-ish attention, though (heck, came in 50 in my first run-through).

 

G) Nick Struck is underrated. Low 90's, solid secondary offerings, some potential for more, and will be in A+ ball. That's a solid package and you could make an argument for a C+-ish, 2-star-ish grade for him.

[JeffH]

Jay Jackson was overrated, but now he's underrated.

[toonsterwu]

Jay Jackson was overrated, but now he's underrated.

 

I'm not sure he was overrated before, and I'm not sure he's underrated now. The reports on Jay prior to this year indicated low 90's fastball that could touch mid-90's, solid slider, decent curve, decent change, decent control. I don't think anyone claimed Jay was a top 50ish type prospect last year. An upper level pitcher with that type of arsenal can make a solid case for Top 100, which many lists had him as. Keep in mind that his 2009 was a tale of streaks - a hot start in AA, the collapse, the demotion, and then dominated A+ ball. Add in that he was viewed as somewhat raw, and that was a very promising package.

 

The problem is ... the reports on him this year simply weren't that good. Fastball was still there, but it seems like his slider really struggled in AAA at times, and I don't recall much positive news on the curve and change. More than anything, that is what bothered me the most. That said, I think most people have Jay as a B-/2-star-ish type prospect, which I think is fair. You could make a case for a B, I guess, so to that extent, I can see an argument for underrated, but the stuff sounded a bit too pedestrian. Now, the improved control does bode well for him, but can he find a balance with control/stuff? There's a part of me, much as I am a big fan of Jay, that wonders if Jay is simply better off in the pen, where he can focus on one breaking pitch, and let his fastball rip (in short spurts in 2009, his fastball was able to get up to the mid-upper 90's range - if you believe the guns at the stadiums).

[davell]

I'm also still going with Brett Jackson as my 1, even though the ceilings of Archer and McNutt are most likely higher. I also agree that someone like Carpenter kind of gets lost in the shuffle at times. That said, I think I read that his fastball lacks movement and that he's probably going to wind up in the back half of the pen. Still, to me anyway, if he becomes a solid setup guy, I'm perfectly happy.

 

Toonster basically hit on most of the same guys I would have. Even Lopez, who I will be one of the guys over rating him. :D

 

I don't think Matt Carda gets enough pub and that until now, Logan Watkins was getting too much. To me, based off of one GREAT month, Junior Lake is getting at least a tad too much pub around here(that said, it's not like I won't have him pretty high on my end of the year list as well). Jeff Beliveau is just going to be a LOOGY, but he barely gets mentioned here ever. Finally, I kind of wonder if Chirinos isn't snubbed a little bit around here. I know he's grandpa-ish age-wise, but he's been absolutely phenomenal and maybe he's actually turned himself into a real prospect.

[Guest]

I'll be thinking about this a lot over the next 36 hours, but I'll say this since Lake was just mentioned. Back in July I said that if he kept that up, I'd have to rank him in my top few prospects. He obviously cooled off in August, so he won't be that high for me. But I will probably still have him higher than most. I love the progress he showed this season.

 

I think Vitters is going to be underrated by a whole bunch of people at this point. I'd might still have him over Jackson, actually, but I'm starting to get concerned about the injuries piling up for him.

 

I think Jackson is overrated, but I'm very concerned about the strikeouts. While very few prospects that walk as little as Vitters eventually make it big, I think even fewer non-power guys make it big with as many strikeouts as Jackson has. I actually think it's easier for Vitters to learn a little patience than it is for Jackson to close the holes in his swing.

 

Overall, I don't think we've got a single player in the system that should rank in the upper tier of prospects in baseball. Archer's command, Vitter's walks, Jackson's and Lee's strikeouts -- they're all significant enough red flags that I don't think any of them are A prospects and may even fall short of B+ prospects. McNutt might have the best statistical profile of any player in the system, but it's too early to rate him that high with only 143 pro innings.

[toonsterwu]

out of curiosity, what is the argument for Vitters over Brett right now? Brett's solid in CF, showed good enough power at both levels (ISOP .202 in A+, .189 in AA). The K's are bothersome, but he walks enough to compensate, and the reports still suggest that he handles the bat very well. I'd argue that Brett is likely to show more power as he matures, and that more experience may decrease that K rate a bit.

[Guest]

out of curiosity, what is the argument for Vitters over Brett right now? Brett's solid in CF, showed good enough power at both levels (ISOP .202 in A+, .189 in AA). The K's are bothersome, but he walks enough to compensate, and the reports still suggest that he handles the bat very well. I'd argue that Brett is likely to show more power as he matures, and that more experience may decrease that K rate a bit.

The argument for vitters over brett is the same as I laid out in late july / early august. I have to locate that one before tomorrow evening, though. :)

[davell]

If I remember correctly, a good part of it had to do with age, based on what Vitters did in Daytona at 20, versus what Jackson did there at 21. Could be wrong though.

[Guest]

If I remember correctly, a good part of it had to do with age, based on what Vitters did in Daytona at 20, versus what Jackson did there at 21. Could be wrong though.

Actually, a good part of the analysis was trying to extract luck from the AA numbers of each.

[Rob]

Well make sure to post something about it tomorrow. I don't want to have to do the work myself.

 

On that note, I'm waiting for somebody to post their top 50 or so so I can just copy and paste names in the order I want. Typing it all out is more work I don't want to do myself.

[NCCubFan]

On that note, I'm waiting for somebody to post their top 50 or so so I can just copy and paste names in the order I want. Typing it all out is more work I don't want to do myself.

Skyballer lives!

[craig]

...

On that note, I'm waiting for somebody to post their top 50 or so so I can just copy and paste names in the order I want. Typing it all out is more work I don't want to do myself.

 

Heh, here you go. (Unfortunately I've got comments interspersed with the names. Maybe I'll separate those out, too...)

 

Craig With Comments

 

1. Chris Archer, RHP Extreme anti-HR guy, really good stuff. Safe pick because he’ll get a lot of opportunity in relief even if he fails as starter. Problem obviously is control, so not at all safe that he’ll become a major impact success. But has improved, and guys with that kind of anti-HR profile have a much easier time.

 

2. Hak Ju Lee, SS Good fielding SS will advance. Limited by absolute lack of power and a lot of errors. Despite scouted speed didn’t steal a ton; unclear whether they just didn’t want him running more or getting hurt stealing, or whether he just doesn’t have the success margin to become high-volume base-stealer; might make a difference whether or not he’s a desirable leadoff threat or not. Since it’s his defense that makes him, I think he’ll stay at SS. Can either get traded, work as a utility sub, or else will need to hit enough that Cubs will move Castro off of SS.

 

3. Brett Jackson, OF. Seems pretty safe and scouts like him. Smart. Huge K issue, makes me wonder. If he’s missing the ball that often against A/AA pitchers, he’s probably going to miss a lot against big-league pitchers. Has seemed to have high BABIP; lucky? How good he’ll be depends heavily on how the HR/K ratio shakes out. If he hits a bunch of HR, that can justify a lot of K’s. High HR’s and high walks, he can afford a bunch of K’s. And the K’s may reduce some too, to at least some degree. But without a fair number of HR’s, if the K’s don’t go down he might have a lot of batting-average problems. Seems good if not exceptional defensively in CF.

 

4. Ken McNutt, RHP Good arm. How much better can he get? Questions are control; movement; and HR. 5HR/116 innings, good. 5HR/56 A+/AA innings, could indicate a problem. Very promising.

 

5. Hayden Simpson I trust Wilken had good reason, and that he’ll be healthy. Profiled with a good arm, a good blend of pitches, and a good attitude. Q: Is he/will he be truly healthy; how much sustainable arm will he have under the pro workload; and how good will be his stuff/control? Will his stuff and his control be good enough to be serious value or just a guy? I considered him behind Guyer, but not behind any of the Lake/Vitters/JJackson guys.

 

6. Brandon Guyer, OF Hit really well. Q/concerns: How much HR power will he show? Can he boost his IsoD? Can he sustain his high average/contact/XBH rate? Is his defense really good enough that he might play some big-league CF?

 

7. Josh Vitters, 3B There are times that he seems like a hitter with some power potential. And I respect the scouts who see a good contact hitter. Will probably need to hit a lot of HR’s to offset his liabilities. Concerns: Can he hit with enough power/HR to justify his IsoD, his defense, and concerns about attitude/effort/brains? I think there may be quite a bit more HR potential than we’ve seen thus far. One advantage is that scouts like his swing; that doesn’t prove future success, but I think they often can future possibilities that stats don’t always reflect.

 

8. Junior Lake , UT Hit very well 2nd half, has a good arm, and has flashed some power at times. Q’s: Attitude/coachability. How much power will he have; can he keep his K’s to a manageable level and have enough HR’s to offset; where will he shake out defensively? (I doubt he ends up at SS).

 

9. Jay Jackson, RHP Can he improve enough to be good in the majors? Can he make an anti-awful move in HR’s and get them to a livable level? Rotation or relief? My biggest concerns with him are the incredible HR-allowed rate he showed this year. (I’d noted it as a concern even before this year.) I strongly believe his long-term niche will need to be in relief.

 

10. Reggie Golden, OF Who knows. Might hit and hit with power, an invaluable combination. Since the onset of the mlb draft almost 50 years ago, have the Cubs ever drafted a HS player who became a good-hitting OFer for the Cubs? Must be somebody, but I can’t remember who…. Maybe Golden will change that?

 

11. Robinson Chirinos, C Great story, he didn’t just start to hit this summer. His offensive numbers have been improving for each of the last several years. His slugging/BB/HR/K ratios were Wow good; when you K so little, but still hit with power and take walks, that’s a perfect recipe to have some offensive potential. And some say he’s fine defensively. Catching is a grind and a high-injury position, so even if he’s “just” a backup C behind Soto, he could get a lot of playing time.

 

12. Brooks Raley, LHP Too many HR’s last year. But when he allowed only 1 HR over last 10 starts, he was very effective. He’ll open AA at age 22. If he can improve in some ways and limit the HR’s, he could be good. Not sure how good his stuff is, but I’m very hopeful about his control. Might end up better than his stuff.

 

13. Jae-Hoon Ha Sky’s the limit. Hit .317 with power at age 19, outstanding talented OFer, good contact low-K hitter. Q: How much HR power will he have? Will he hit breaking stuff, or does his low-K-low-BB reflect that he’s just a fastball guy? Can he improve his IsoD to become anti-awful and at least approach mediocre? Obviously his signature drag is his utterly bad IsoD.

 

14. Rafael Dolis, RHP Anti-HR guy, good arm. At 22 he’s still young enough where he might improve meaningfully; if he did, he could become a useful major leaguer. Reliever eventually?

 

15. Kim Jin-Yeong, RHP Big bonus, the scouts must see some talent. Phil said he looked pretty good at times in Az.

 

16. Ben Wells, RHP Massive guy, paid well. Chance to throw hard and with control.

 

17. Wellington Castillo Power, seems OK defensively, still young. Will his defense play? Can he improve his IsoD and his batting average without losing his HR power? If his defense actually is good, an .815 OPS is not a bad starting point for a guy who opened AAA at age 22. Could look pretty valuable if he can improve his offense and confirm himself as a capable defender.

 

18. Chris Rusin, LHP We’ll see how it sustains, but only 19 walks in 110IP. Lefties with so consistently good a breaking ball aren’t that common. Q: Biggest key is whether he’ll be able to keep his HR’s in check. How slow is he, actually? Is he and can he stay healthy? Rotation or relief?

 

19. Robert Whitenack, RHP Projectible, was really effective over the last 3-4 months, K-rate improved and HR-rate dropped a lot. How much better and/or faster can he get? Too soon to know where his velocity, breaking stuff, control, and HR-containment will end up, but he’s got a chance to be a useful major leaguer.

 

20. D.J. LeMahieu, UT Good contact hitter, and can catch what he can reach defensively. Q: Which positions can he play at the big-league level, and will he ever add any power or IsoD? Sometimes Cub prospects seem to add their HR power late; if he showed even a modest amount, he’d jump up my list considerably. Whether or not he can really handle big-league 2b defensively as a regular, in the uncertain event that he’s productive enough offensively to be a regular 2B, is a question.

 

21. Aaron Kurcz, RHP Had a nice run, interesting fastball/slider combo.

 

22. Jeffry Antigua, LHP Shoulder questions. If healthy, how good is his stuff, really; and can he restrain the HR’s? I think all Q’s/Answers hinge around arm health. If I knew he will stay healthy, I’d have him higher.

 

23. Ryan Flaherty, UT How much better can he get? Can he boost his HR output? How good is he defensively and what positions can he play?

 

24. Robinson Lopez, RHP Young, good velocity. Control?

 

25. Chris Carpenter, RHP Anti-HR stuff, and on occasion quite fast. Wildly inconsistent, with bad control. Q’s: health, control, any real improvement left? Can he throw hard more consistently, and with more consistent control? Does he have the composure to handle pressure in relief? I suspect many will rate him higher than me. I fear his stuff may be somewhat overrated; I fear he has a reputation as having a big fastball, and on occasion that may be true. But I get the feeling that most of the time, his fastball isn’t really that fast and that his fastball movement/command may not be good enough to normally make his fastball very much better than average.

 

26. Daniel Sanchez, SS/OF May be the highest-bonus Dominican position player the Cubs have ever signed. Scouts must see enough of something to think he might have a chance.

 

27. Belliveau 97K/64IP, seems to have enough stuff to be a good Loogy prospect. Big control Q, and HR.

 

28. Cam Greathouse, LHP Had nice K/BB at Boise, strong groundball splits. Not sure how his stuff projects. If he adds some velocity, and if he can sustain HR-suppression against higher level hitters, he could really jump on my list.

 

29. Nick Struck, RHP Consistently throws in low 90’s, young, and improved during season. Command? Movement? Breaking stuff? Who knows.

 

30. Su-Min Jung, RHP Health? Was really effective for a few weeks, but had some shoulder questions. Will still be only 20 when the season begins. Any hopes hinge on showing up with a healthy shoulder. But if I was certain his shoulder was fine, I might have him higher.

 

31. Austin Kirk, LHP Decent progress.

 

32. Austin Reed, RHP Good arm, projectable, good reports.

 

33. Alberto Cabrera, RHP Good arm, good sometimes, sometimes fast. Wildly inconsistent.

 

34. David Cales, RHP Has been good for periods, but consistency? Q’s. Healthy?

 

35. Marquez Smith, 3B Slugged well over .500, has been variably good offensively. Can he field enough to be a big-league bench guy, or play anything but 3rd? Is his 2010 HR power a fluke, or for real?

 

36. Dong-Yub Kim, OF Seemed interesting when he signed. Health?

 

37. Brett Wallach, RHP Good K-guy. Q’s: will he improve? Control? HR’s a huge problem.

 

38. Matt Cerda, UT Strong OBP/contact guy. Will he hit enough and with enough power? And how good or bad is his defense? If he’s really a quality big-league 2B/3B defender, he may be a good enough OBP guy to be useful. But if his defensive upside is to be average at best, it will be hard to outhit a bad glove with such limited power.

 

39. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP Health? Will his stuff improve in year two? Will he get his splitter back, or at least some of his lost velocity? I’m not overly confident, but I am hopeful. He had a number of games where he was pretty good for 3-5 innings, but then gave up a lot of runs late. I’m hopeful that being a year stronger, that all of his stuff will be somewhat better and that what stuff he does have will be more sustainable. But for 2010, his low-K high-HR line certainly fit with the profile of fringiness.

 

40. Esmailin Caridad, RHP Can he come back from arm?

 

41. Matt Szczur, OF Will he stick with baseball? If so, will he hit, walk, steal, or add power?

 

42. Marco Hernandez, SS 17, good DSL numbers. Does he have future punch?

 

43. Darwin Barney, SS Will he hit enough to be nice utility guy?

 

44. Luis Liria Solid arm, some changeup.

 

45. Charles Thomas, RHP Throws hard sometimes.

 

46. Frank Batista, RHP Wildy inconsistent and huge HR problem. But had some good days..

 

47. Aaron Shafer Good numbers at Daytona. No clue on current or projected stuff.

 

48. Kyle Smit, RHP Decent arm,

 

49. TyRelle Harris, RHP

 

50. PC Chen, UT

 

51. Delbin Arcila, OF Patience and power prospect.

 

52. Matt Spencer, OF Got some power.

 

53. Logan Watkins, 2B

 

54. Jeff Lorick, LHP Phil thought he had some Loogy potential.

 

55. Steve Clevenger, C True contact hitter. Not sure about his defense.

 

56. Colin Richardson, RHP 23/2 K/BB.

 

57. Gioskar Amaya, UT

 

58. Wilson Contreras, 3B Good contact, strong arm, some rumor of $$. Will he hit for power?

 

59. Yohan Gonzalez Back-to-back ERA below 3, control pitcher, low-HR, now 20. Will he improve or come up with a K-pitch?

[craig]

OK, here's just the list so you can edit easily.

 

Craig’s Top Prospects After 2010/Before 2011

1. Chris Archer, RHP

2. Hak Ju Lee, SS

3. Brett Jackson, OF

4. Ken McNutt, RHP

5. Brandon Guyer, OF

6. Hayden Simpson

7. Josh Vitters, 3B

8. Junior Lake , UT

9. Jay Jackson, RHP

10. Reggie Golden, OF

11. Robinson Chirinos, C

12. Brooks Raley, LHP

13. Jae-Hoon Ha

14. Rafael Dolis, RHP

15. Kim Jin-Yeong, RHP

16. Ben Wells, RHP

17. Wellington Castillo

18. Chris Rusin, LHP

19. Robert Whitenack, RHP

20. D.J. LeMahieu, UT

21. Aaron Kurcz, RHP

22. Jeffry Antigua, LHP

23. Ryan Flaherty, UT

24. Robinson Lopez, RHP

25. Chris Carpenter, RHP

26. Daniel Sanchez, SS/OF

27. Belliveau

28. Cam Greathouse, LHP

29. Nick Struck, RHP

30. Su-Min Jung, RHP

31. Austin Kirk, LHP

32. Austin Reed, RHP

33. Alberto Cabrera, RHP

34. David Cales, RHP

35. Marquez Smith, 3B

36. Dong-Yub Kim, OF

37. Brett Wallach, RHP

38. Matt Cerda, UT

39. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

40. Esmailin Caridad, RHP

41. Matt Szczur, OF

42. Marco Hernandez, SS

43. Darwin Barney, SS

44. Luis Liria

45. Charles Thomas, RHP

46. Frank Batista, RHP

47. Aaron Shafer

48. Kyle Smit, RHP

49. TyRelle Harris, RHP

50. PC Chen, UT

51. Delbin Arcila, OF

52. Matt Spencer, OF

53. Logan Watkins, 2B

54. Jeff Lorick, LHP

55. Steve Clevenger, C

56. Colin Richardson, RHP

57. Gioskar Amaya, UT

58. Wilson Contreras, 3B

59. Yohan Gonzalez

[ChiefsVoice]

Just thought I'd get this up in advance so we have a centralized place for various Cubs top prospect lists. NSBB will once again be doing a Top Cubs Prospects list, which will be posted and discussed at a later time.

 

I'm also curious to see what everyone's rankings look like on NSBB. Despite a lot of big names graduating (Cashner and Castro), the Cubs made some interesting trades (Lopez and Wallach) and had an interesting draft, to say the least.

 

So, some questions for discussion...

 

1) Who is the top prospect in this system?

2) Who is underrated?

3) Who is overrated?

 

1. Brett Jackson 1a. Archer 1b. Vitters 1c. Lee

2. I'm going to skip this one

3. Cerda, Struck and Ha. I also agree with the previous poster on Batista being a sleeper. Though a 5'8 pitcher is never going to get a ton of pub or have a lot of expectations.

[davell]

Just thought I'd get this up in advance so we have a centralized place for various Cubs top prospect lists. NSBB will once again be doing a Top Cubs Prospects list, which will be posted and discussed at a later time.

 

I'm also curious to see what everyone's rankings look like on NSBB. Despite a lot of big names graduating (Cashner and Castro), the Cubs made some interesting trades (Lopez and Wallach) and had an interesting draft, to say the least.

 

So, some questions for discussion...

 

1) Who is the top prospect in this system?

2) Who is underrated?

3) Who is overrated?

 

1. Brett Jackson 1a. Archer 1b. Vitters 1c. Lee

2. I'm going to skip this one

3. Cerda, Struck and Ha. I also agree with the previous poster on Batista being a sleeper. Though a 5'8 pitcher is never going to get a ton of pub or have a lot of expectations.

 

 

Nate, did you mean that Ha, Struck, and Cerda are overrated or underrated?

[davell]

Here's my list. Comments on them to follow later. Don't have much time to type right now. These lists should definitely raise some debates though, because I think outside of the top 7 or so, we're all going to vary quite a bit.

 

1 B JACKSON

2 ARCHER

3 MCNUTT

4 LEE

5 VITTERS

6 J JACKSON

7 CARPENTER

8 GOLDEN

9 RUSIN

10 LOPEZ

11 HA

12 CHIRINOS

13 GUYER

14 LAKE

15 SIMPSON

16 LEMAHIEU

17 YJ KIM

18 DOLIS

19 SZCZUR

20 CABRERA

21 REED

22 RALEY

23 WELLS

24 KURCZ

25 BARNEY

26 CERDA

27 WALLACH

28 ANTIGUA

29 FLAHERTY

30 RHEE

31 KIRK

32 CASTILLO

33 MATEO

34 GREATHOUSE

35 STRUCK

36 ALCANTARA

37 BELIVEAU

38 CALES

39 M SMITH

40 JUNG

41 RHODERICK

42 WHITENACK

43 CHEN

44 MAINE

45 GIBBS

46 WATKINS

47 CLEVENGER

48 CAMPANA

49 SMIT

50 C THOMAS

51 CANZLER

52 NA

53 BEELER

54 ARCILA

55 CONTRERAS

56 HARTMAN

57 AMAYA

58 MORLA

59 ZAPATA

60 SPENCER

61 Y WANG

62 HERNANDEZ

63 LEPAGE

64 GEIGER

65 BURRUEL

66 DY KIM

67 BIBENS DIRKX

68 D SANCHEZ

69 BATISTA

70 SHAFER

[Outshined_One]

I'm impressed with how aggressive you are with Rusin, Lopez, and Reed.

[ChiefsVoice]

Nate, did you mean that Ha, Struck, and Cerda are overrated or underrated?

 

 

Wayyyy under rated. I'm not going to call any of these young kids that I work with over-rated. Thats not good for business!

 

I've said on here before that I will not be surprised when Cerda is the 1st or 2nd position player from this year's Chiefs team to make it to the Majors. He can play 2B or 3B and plays both well. More power than I expected, drove in nearly 80 runs. Good speed, a gamer in every sense of the word. He just "gets" baseball and was a definite leader of our 2009 team.

 

Had Ha been with us on Opening Day instead of still experimenting behind the plate he would have been qualified for the top 8 in average. Plays a very good corner OF, can play center if needed, works hard and is a clubhouse goofball always having fun and keeping things loose.

 

Struck is a bulldog and very confident. He just needs to continue to learn and mature. He was really an interesting guy to be around. Very solid interview and was really the first time he had ever been away from home on a regular basis since he played summer ball in Oregon in 2009 and went to CC right by home as well.

[davell]

Some comments about my list. I think Brett Jackson can turn into a Granderson type of player and feel more comfortbale with his K's than I do with Archer's control issues, to put him first on my list. Although I do think Archer has ace caliber upside. I fully expect to see both of them by mid season, possibly much before that. McNutt seems like a very solid prospect, no real holes to speak of right now, so he's an easy 3 for me. I like Lee alot, but I honestly think he suffered somewhat from Castro's season last year, as far as expectations go. I'm not sure he'll ever pull Castro off of SS, but I could see him at 2B or even CF possibly for us by 2013. Vitters just needs to be left alone for a year in AA and see what he can do over a full season. I don't doubt his ability, I doubt how hard he's working. Maybe relying too much on his natural ability to get by, to this point. If he lays off some pitches, he could have a Moustakas type-uptick in his prospect status over the next season. Jay Jackson is probably going to be further down on most lists than mine, but I think he'll bounce back nicely. I like that his control improved this season and think he's a 3/4 type starter with the downside of a setup guy. Carpenter surprised me this year actually. I kind of thought he'd struggle or get hurt, but he had a solid season for the most part. He has the build to be a starter for sure, but reports I heard saying he doesn't have lots of movement were troublesome, so I picture him as a middle reliever/set up guy longterm at this point. But, I think we'll see Jackson and Carpenter by the end of 2011. Golden screams tools loudly and has great makeup as well, so I have him really high here. If we have anyone who can make a huge jump as far as hitters go, he seems the most likely to me. Rusin doesn't appear to be more than a 4/5 starter, but he's a lefty and has great control, so I think there's real value in that. I have Lopez 10th, because of his age, his heat, and the fact that he's got the ability to have a plus curve and change as well. If we have another Archer type step forward from any pitcher in 2011, my guess is it's him.

 

Ha needs to learn some plate discipline obviously, but he is another very athletic type who surprised bigtime at Peoria this year. It'll be interesting to see what he can do in Daytona next year. Chirinos has put himself in a spot where he deserves a shot. No idea if he'll capitalize on it, but he deserves one anyway. Guyer appears to be our future 4th OFer, as he's got great speed and some power as well. Won't shock me to see him wind up better longterm than Colvin actually. I'll be lower on Lake than most(if not all) here, but I want to see more than one hot month before I start thinking he's turned the corner. He could benefit from another year at Daytona, if you ask me. But, I expect him to be moved up. I'm scared of Simpson, because of the mono and also because I'm not convinced this wasn't just a pick to save money. On top of that, with his smallish stature, if he struggles somewhat, I could see it possibly affecting us, in our decision making, if Sonny Gray is on the board next year when we pick. I like LeMahieu more than Flaherty at this point, as he's proven he can hit, he just needs to translate it into a little power now and with his build, I definitely can see that happening. Longterm utility guy in the DeRosa mold is what I'm hoping for out of him. Kim throws strikes and the early reports from Phil were solid enough to be excited about him. Dolis looks to me like a sure bet to eventually make the move to the pen. I could see him as a future setup type possibly. Szczur had one comp I saw as Carl Crawfordesque, which really impressed me. If he can hit for a little pop, he could move quickly up this list, but I think it's 50-50 whether or not he'll even be in baseball a year from now. Cabrera is way too inconsistent to make me put him any higher, but he's also too talented not to put fairly high anyway. It's not like he's old either, but I'd like to see him maintain more consistency next year in AA.

 

If Phil calls Reed's stuff "electric" I'm certainly going to pay attention to him. He obviously looked good in Arizona and at Instructs. With his build, we may have a very nice sleeper with him. I expect he'll add some velo over the next season or two with more coaching. Raley isn't a sexy player, but he gets it done and got better as the season went on. Not sure what his upside is, but I think he's the type of player who will do everything he can to reach it. Ben Wells is like Reed to me: Very excited to see what he can develop into. Put him slightly lower, because of the possible weight issue down the line. We couldn't have asked more of Kurcz, he did everything he possibly could wherever we've put him, to date. Has some questions about his smallish size, but I think he'll move very quickly and expect to see him in AA this upcoming year, at some point. Barney will have a long major league career. I guess he's gotta be on this list, even though I think of him as Theriot without the speed and slightly better glove. I like Cerda alot and think he's got decent pop for a small guy. I could see him becoming a better version of Fontenot. Wallach disappointed me once we traded for him, but he's still learning to pitch and has the frame to become an innings eater. Like his K rate right now, hopefully he can continue to do that at higher levels. I hate putting Antigua this low, because I thought that he could be a top 10 guy last year at this time(after this season, not then) but his smallish size could wind up hurting him some and I've got to wonder if he can hold on and be a starter longterm. Flaherty needs to get moving quickly at this point. I'm not sure what to think of him, but he's not exactly setting the world on fire at his age in High A ball, so he really needs to bounce back next season. I put Rhee at 30, strictly thinking that he'll throw the splitter again next season. If not, he may fall off of our radar very soon. But, he did have a solid 2/3 of a season, before falling off completely the last 1/3. For now, I'll keep thinking it was because of it being his 1st season back from TJS.

[davell]

As for the rest of my list, it'll be interesting to see what Kirk can do in full season ball. He probably has more upside than Raley or Rusin. I like Castillo, but definitely think Chirinos has passed him. That said, no idea who'll make the team next year as Hill seems to be our backup again most likely for some damn reason. Mateo has some great stuff at times and looks awful at others, time is running short on him. I like what Greathouse did, but like Rusin last year, I want to see him in full season ball for a little while to see how his stuff plays out. I probably would have had Marquez Smith higher on my list, but I have been polluted by the fact that the Cubs may not even roster him. Struck is a guy I definitely can see other's putting in their top 30's. I want to see his K rate go up a little bit, but I think he does offer some solid upside and I almost interchanged him with Rhee. Alcantara has some tools, including power, from the middle IF, he needs to learn patience and to field the ball, before I think he'll get any real pub. But, he's a guy that could make a huge jump. Beliveau screams LOOGY, just needs work on his control. Cales struggled at the end of the year or I'd have had him higher than this. Maybe hitters have caught up to his stuff? Jung had a very impressive stretch last year before he got hurt, I'll be curious to see if it's something he can build on.

 

I figure Rhoderick has the ability to make a huge jump, ala Kurcz, moving quickly. Just needs some control. Whitenack looked great at Daytona, lets see if it was flukish or not. Chen is a smallish quick MI, who's probably going to have it rough with so many guys ahead of him. Maine looked solid in the majors at the end of the year. Gibbs is great defensively, but hasn't hit close to his weight yet. Watkins has upside, but I think expectations were too high going into this year. Clevenger is a typical BU C prospect that all organizations have. Campana will never get a shot in Chicago, but could be a Podsednik type if given the chance somewhere. Or he could be the worst hitter ever. Basically, just a guy, as far as I'm concerned. I liked what Smit did this past season, so it'll be interesting to see if that nets him a spot on the 40 man.. I'm putting Thomas on here because he throws gas. The jury is out obviously on him, but early returns look like this conversion was much needed.

 

Canzler is a righty version of Hoffpauir most likely, but is young enough to prove that theory wrong. Na didn't impress, as far as I was concerned. His speed, supposedly the fastest in the organization, didn't play up in games. Beeler is another slight overslot, with a big body, that impressed Phil in his short appearances so far. Arcila seems like the DSL guy with the most upside. Contreras was the one that got the biggest bonus supposedly, although he may already be struggling to find a position. Hartman is another HS arm that showed some flashes at times near the end of the year. Amaya hit well enough at instructs and during the DSL season, that he is someone to be watched. Morla was a guy that probably needed to be stretched out, but we have too much depth for that and I think if he is ever going to make it, it's going to have to be out of the pen. Zapata is a bad body guy that appears to have some power and speed, so he'll be fun to track. Spencer is well on his way to becoming Jake Fox version 2.0.

 

Yao Lin Wang looked good in Arizona, not so much in Boise. Something tells me that he's a reliever longterm as well. Hernandez was the DSL guy I was most interested in, but finding out he's a slap hitter may have changed that for me. LePage had a very solid debut, but he's not someone that looks to be all that intriguing longterm. Geiger could be, he just needs to add some power it seems and get game experience. And to stay healthy. Burruel is a guy with power supposedly, but he hasn't shown any yet. If he does, he could turn into a very solid prospect. Dong Yub Kim was a guy I was very excited to see, power and speed combo, but 2 seasons of injuries have taken the excitement away. Hopefully, he can stay healthy and can show us something. I put Bibens-Dirkx on here strictly because he had an excellent year in AA. I don't think he's got the stuff to make it and he's probably just our next Mathis-in waiting, but he did pitch well anyway. Daniel Sanchez is a huge SS, that probably won't stick there, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on next year in the DSL. Frank Batista had some very solid outings near the end of the year and while he's probably not going to be thought of too highly, he is a guy that could move up this list quite a bit anyway. Finally, Aaron Shafer is stuck as a reliever at this point. He gained some velo by moving there and it's probably his only chance at making it to the bigs.

[toonsterwu]

I'm trying to tidy up my top 30. This is what I have right now (I may post this on Sickels to get some discussion going there, seems like a lot of people are posting individual team lists right now).

 

 

1. Brett Jackson, B+.

 

Jackson had an excellent 2010. He posted a .316/.420/.517 line in A+ Daytona with a 13.8% BB rate and a 24% K rate. Moving up to AA Tennessee, he posted a solid .276/.366/.465 line, with a 11.2% BB rate and a 27.6% K rate. For the most part, at both spots, he hit at the top of the order, either leading off or 2nd. He combined to go 30/41 in SB attempts, while hitting 6 HR’s at each spot. All in all, it was an excellent year for the “Golden Retriever”.

 

Despite a solid year, this was not the easiest decision, as I clearly recognize the concerns on the strikeouts, and I’m also cognizant that there are some voices that challenge Brett’s ability to stay in CF long term. That said, I feel like, at the very least, during his cost-controlled years, he should be a solid defensive centerfielder. Offensively, the scouting report is still the same as it’s been, for better or worse. The strikeouts are bothersome, but this is a guy who still handles the bat well enough that he is a fairly solid situational hitter, and Brett is still a guy that is willing and able to take pitches. I’m still hopeful enough that the strikeouts will decrease a tad with more experience. There’s enough power potential to suggest that he might become a possible 20-25 HR guy. Brett runs the bases well, and there are positive reports on his character. The “Golden Retriever” tired down the stretch this year, but he had a really long 2010, so I’m not concerned that much just yet. The indications are that the Cubs have high hopes for him, so it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Brett is in Chicago at some point in 2011.

 

He might not project to be an elite star, but he looks to be a potentially solid centerfielder, offensively and defensively, and that gets the nod for me when there are, IMO, questions about his potential challengers for the top spot. While I haven’t done a top 100 list, I’ll be surprised if Brett isn’t a top 50 prospect. I imagine he’ll start at AA, with a chance to see AAA, and a slim chance to see the bigs.

 

2. Chris Archer, B+.

 

Until 2010, for many Cubs fans, Archer was simply the 3rd piece in that DeRosa deal, the young, upside arm. Archer ended up having a magnificent 2010 that led to some consideration by BA for minor league player of the year. Starting off in A+ Daytona, he posted a 7-1 record in 15 games (14 starts), with a 2.86 ERA, 10.2 K Rate, 3.24 BB rate, and a 0.50 HR rate in 72.1 innings. He went on to AA Tennessee, going 8-2 in 70 innings (13 GS), with a 1.80 ERA. The peripherals were noticeably weaker, with the K rate at 8.61, the BB rate at 5.01. He was still good at limiting HR’s, posting a 0.26 HR rate.

 

Stuff wise, Archer offers a low-mid 90’s fb that has good movement and sink to it. A lot of reports are posting about how he hit the upper 90’s (and I know a couple people said some stadium guns put him higher than the 97 that has been stated in publications). For the most part, he is, though, still a guy who sits in the low-mid 90’s, a touch better velo than before. He pairs that with a nasty slider (the Cubs have transitioned him to that, although he still throws a curve). The change showed better depth to it this year and is promising.

 

The overall struggles in AA aren’t the biggest deal. It’s a big jump and he did well enough. The concerning aspect is the increase in the BB rate. I wasn’t able to attend as many games this year, but one response I constantly heard was whether or not his stuff was simply too good. Comparisons have been made to Carlos Marmol in some respects, which I find valid enough. Can he harness his stuff enough, while not diminishing it too much? His ceiling might be higher than Brett’s, but I feel much safer about Brett right now than I do about Chris, although working on a recent Cubs prospect list with very knowledgeable folks, there are those who disagree, and I can understand why. I have him ahead of McNutt, even though I might feel safer about McNutt as well, because Archer has more performance in the upper levels and because his stuff seems to be a notch better. His ceiling seems to be a possible 2, with his floor perhaps as a power pen arm. I think he’s a borderline top 50 prospect, but at the very least, a top 75 prospect. I think he’ll be at AAA, with a chance to see big league action. He needs to be added to the 40 man this winter.

 

3. Kenneth McNutt, borderline B+

 

For me, Kenneth “Trey” McNutt is the last of the top tier for the Cubs, but others have disagreed. The late round pick got 115 K from the Cubs, and so far, has been a great return. He went through 3 levels in 2010, starting at low A Peoria, going 6-0 in 59.2 innings (13 GS), with a 1.51 ERA, 10.56 K rate, 3.62 BB rate, and a 0 HR rate. Moving up to Daytona for 9 starts and 41 innings, he went 4-0, with a 2.63 rate, 10.76 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, and a 0.66 HR/9. He ended with 3 starts in AA in the regular season, going 0-1 in 15.2 innings, with a 5.74 ERA, 7.47 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, and a 1.15 HR/9. He had an excellent postseason with 2 solid starts, although the Smokies lost his game against Jacksonville.

 

McNutt comes armed with a mid-90’s power fastball that is coupled with an excellent curveball. Both have been described as potential plus pitches. The changeup has received mixed reviews most of the year, but there is some promise to it. Overall, I buy that his control/command is solid, and in that respect, I think he is probably a slightly safer bet to reach the bigs as a starter than Archer. At the end of the day, I just want to see more from McNutt in the upper levels before jumping him up. I came close to putting him at 1 and 2, but I want to see how his stuff holds up over the long haul against upper level hitters. I think he has the potential to be a possible 2. I think he’s a possible top 50 prospect as well, but at the very least, I think he’s a top 75 prospect. I imagine he’ll be in AA to start, with a chance to see AAA, and an outside chance to see the bigs.

 

 

For me, that’s the top tier of the Cubs system. I know there are knowledgeable folks that would disagree on a player, and I can respect that and understand their arguments. The 2nd tier is a bit trickier, and I think, as there was in our discussion, healthy disagreement on who they are and what order to place them. For the most part, most people acknowledge that there are around 4-5 guys to fit in here.

 

4. Chris Carpenter, borderline B.

 

My nod at 4 goes to Christopher Carpenter. The Kent State product was once considered a possible first round pick, but fell to the Cubs in the 3rd round in the 2008 draft due to health reasons (TJ mainly, although IIRC, there were some knee issues). Carpenter went 8-6 in 23 starts (119.2 innings), posting a 3.08 ERA, 7.52 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, and a 0.38 HR/9 before getting 3 starts in AAA. He went back to AA for the postseason.

 

Overall, not the flashiest line, but he finished strong. He had arm issues again (I forget what it is right now). Carpenter comes armed with a mid-90’s fastball, a good slider, and a decent change that got better in 2010. The potential is there to be a possible mid-rotation arm, although it is fair to question if the durability issues will push him to the pen. I am pleased that, at the end of 2010, Carpenter will have thrown around 150 innings (he’s in AFL right now), which is a healthy amount, and when combined with his upper level status and potential, I gave him the nod over the next set of guys. I imagine he’ll be in AAA to start, with a chance to see some big league time.

 

5. Hak-ju Lee, borderline B.

 

The Korean product had a solid 2010, posting a .282/.354/.351 line in Low A Peoria. He had a really hot July in there, but held his own for the most part. He walked 8.9% of the time, while striking out 17.7% of the time. He went 32/39 in SB attempts. I’ve compared him, offensively, to Che-Hsuan Lin in the past, and I still think that’s a fair comparison. Lee’s speed is still good, although he’s a bit more filled out and I’m not sure he is as fast as before. Defensively, Lee has very good potential, showing good lateral movement and arm strength. Like many young shortstops, defensive consistency is an issue. Hak-ju can’t afford to lose that much speed as he matures, unless he adds more power than anyone anticipated. Overall, though, he’s a fine shortstop prospect. He’s just so far away and with a fringy bat and defensive consistency issues, I just prefer Carpenter a touch more. I imagine he’ll be at Daytona most of the year.

 

6. Josh Vitters, B-.

 

I’ll be curious how people rank Vitters this winter. In a recent Cubs prospect discussion, there were some arguments for him to go higher, and he ended up slotting a spot higher. I can understand the case that people made (age, BABIP, showed some improvement, upside), but I feel like Lee and Carpenter are a bit safer while offering enough upside. The just turned 21 year old started out in A+ Daytona, posting a .291/.350/.445 line, walking 6.7% of the time, while striking out 20% of the time. He got on a hot streak and was promoted to AA, where he posted a .223/.292/.383 line, walking 5.7% of the time, and striking out 19.9 % of the time before he got hurt. The BABIP in AA was .247. Defensively, Vitters will never be an elite 3rd baseman, and may have to move down the line (he may move sooner, Cubs are rumored to be pondering using him at 1st more in 2011), but he’s passable enough that he could probably stick for a few years. It really comes down to the bat. Give Josh credit – he did make improvements. He walked a bit more, although that also led to more strikeouts. He’s never really dominated a level, but to be fair, the Cubs, after being careful with him early, have pushed him up every time he got on a hot streak. His bat upside is still excellent … but can he find that balance? Swinging away at pitcher’s pitches has limited his overall power production as well. No one doubts his power potential – but he hasn’t put up quality enough power numbers. I hope he is at AA all year.

 

7. Jay Jackson, B-.

 

Jay Jackson was in AAA Iowa all year, where he went 11-8 in 32 games (25 starts), going 157.1 innings with a 4.63 ERA, 6.81 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, and a 1.14 HR/9. I don’t think any Cubs fans were really pleased with the shifting that Cashner and Jay Jackson had this year. It’s easy to forget how fast he’s risen up the system – this is his 2nd full season of pro ball, and he was considered a relatively raw collegiate arm. His arm action is still considered fine, and Jay can still pump low-mid 90’s on his fastball. The secondary pitches, though, got mixed reviews. Overall, the promise that his slider showed in the lower levels never really materialized. The slider is fairly average, the curveball and change need work. I feel safer about Jay Jackson reaching the bigs than I do about Vitters, but Vitters ceiling won out for the 6th spot for me. There were some positives to Jay’s season, and namely, the improved control. Can he improve his secondary offerings enough, while maintaining the newfound control? Best case right now seems to be a 3/4 starter or a late inning pen arm. I have wondered if he would be better off in the pen focusing on one breaking pitch and letting his fastball rip (some guns had him hitting upper 90’s last year in short spurts). I expect him to be at AAA to start, with a chance that he joins the Cubs pen later in the year.

 

8. Junior Lake, borderline B-.

 

In our recent discussions, Junior Lake finished higher than this, and I can understand the arguments for it. Lake played in A+ Daytona all year, posting a .264/.333/.398 line, walking 7.8% of the time while striking out 25.1% of the time. There is an argument that Lake has the highest ceiling of any young Cub, including Starlin Castro. He’s more toolsy than Castro. The chances are high that Junior will have to move off shortstop, though, as he’s been inconsistent there. With Lee not really pushing him just yet, Lake will probably get another year at SS. He has good power potential, and could probably fit at 2nd or 3rd. The problem I have is that he really hot one hot streak this year to prop up his numbers (June/July) before cooling down a bit. I want to see more consistency in performance before pushing him up. The esteemed AzPhil of TCR has noted how the kid was a bit rough around the edges, so he has had to adjust and learn to accept teaching. The potential is through the roof, though. I expect him to spend most of the year at AA.

 

For me, that’s the end of the Cubs 2nd tier. It’s a bit off a mess after this, and I have a lot of guys loosely bunched together that you could make the case to sort them in a number of different arrangements. I’m going to cut down on the writing.

 

9. Reggie Golden.

 

This is a pure upside nod to the Cubs 2nd round pick. An argument could be made that his bat upside is the highest in the system, and he showed that potential in instructs. That said, he is very raw around the edges and needs a lot of work, offensively and defensively. I’m guessing XST, and then either AZL or Boise.

 

10. Ben Wells.

 

I figure I’ll be called out for this ranking, but as of this writing, I feel comfortable doing this. The 7th round pick got his first taste of pro work at instructs. After so much time off, he was building up his arm strength, according to AzPhil of thecubreporter. His secondary pitches were solid in instructs (slider and splitter). This is purely an upside nod, but here’s a big hoss of a kid (240ish at instructs), who has a low 90’s fastball and may add to it, along with good secondary options and a decent feel for pitching. This is a big workhorse body. Purely upside right now, but his arm upside might be as good as anyone that is of prospect status (certainly, he’s not nearly as ready as McNutt or Archer, so don’t mistake my wording here). I’m comfortable enough with this, but fully acknowledge that this is a pure upside nod, like Golden. I’m guessing XST will be his 2011 starting point.

 

11. Hayden Simpson.

 

The hotly debated first round pick missed pitching professionally due to mono. I was tempted to keep him ahead of Golden and Wells, but the weight loss bothered me enough and Golden’s offensive upside seems that good and I like Ben Wells arm upside more. There’s no doubt that at one point this year, he was throwing mid-90’s with 2 solid breaking pitches and a decent change. There’s also no doubt that he tired at one point, with his fastball dropping down a bit, and his secondary stuff not being as sharp. Was it a case of being overworked, or was it some other reason? How one feels about that will likely determine where they place him. I tend to think of him as being similar to Jay Jackson a bit. If he’s healthy, I could see the Cubs push him to Peoria, although starting at XST is possible.

 

12. Brandon Guyer.

 

Guyer had a superb 2010, finishing with a ridiculous 2nd half. He won Cubs offensive player of the year (or positional, I forget what the award is right now), posting a .344/.398/.598 line in his 2nd turn in AA, walking 6.6% of the time and striking out 13.8% of the time. Like Colvin, the Cubs worked on improving Guyer’s arm strength, and he was a better defensive OF this year. He’s long had one of the better toolsets in the Cubs system. So … why isn’t he higher? It’s not as if the age is a significant issue. I mean, he’s not young, but he’s not old. At the end of the day, I’m still not sold that he’s a starting OF. The comparisons have been made to Eric Byrnes and Reed Johnson. He’s a hustle, go after it guy, but he doesn’t have great power potential, and it’s questionable if he could hit .300 in the bigs. He feels like a solid 4th OF type who could perhaps platoon/part-time start. I’m just not sure he’s a starting OF and that ended up pushing him down to 11 for me, although a case could be made for him at 9. I think he’ll be in AAA, but don’t be surprised if he sees the bigs soon. He needs to be protected this winter and likely will be.

 

13. Jin-Yeong Kim.

 

The South Korean HS product is the latest Cubs big signing in Asia. The reports from instructs were positive. He reportedly has a fastball that tops out around 92/93, 2 decent-solid breaking balls, and a decent change. I’m thinking XST to start 2011, but it’s possible they bump him up to Peoria.

 

14. Robinson Chirinos.

 

Chirinos was one of the hardest guys for me to place. The biggest issue is his age. If he was 2 years younger, you could make the case for him to be a top 10 in the system. The former MI is 26, though. He had a monstrous year at AA, but I know there are folks that question those offensive numbers (and there were splits issues – granted, he didn’t struggle against righties either). For the most part, most people acknowledge that he has shown offensive improvement. Defensively, the reports seem to suggest that he might be one of the better defensive catchers out there. He has a superb work ethic and is known as a good mentor (was known as Starlin’s mentor, and some rumors were that the Cubs kept him around with the idea that they might develop a good coaching candidate). Slowly, there are some folks that believe he might be a starting catcher, although projecting him as a backup backstop is more reasonable. I can understand moving him up or down. He needs to be protected this winter and likely will be. Likely in AAA, but could be in the bigs depending on the Cubs backup C situation.

 

15. Alberto Cabrera.

 

I pondered sliding him ahead of Chirinos, but I’m not completely sold on Cabrera as a starter. That said, Alberto had a very solid campaign. The just-turned 22 year old started in A+. He got a bump to AA before struggling and getting demoted back to A+. He should start 2011 in AA. Cabrera comes armed with a mid-90’s fastball and a decent slider. Consistency on the slider is much needed. Changeup needs work.

 

16. Chris Rusin.

 

I feel like putting him higher, but enough people have commented on his relative lack of upside that I slid him down a bit as a result. The polished 4th rounder showed that the Cubs got what they signed up for when they drafted him. After coming back from the DL, he was strong at A+ with a 8.31 K rate and a 1.48 BB rate, with a 0.58 HR/9. He went on to be solid at AA, posting a 7.11 BB/9, 1.89 K/9 in limited work. He’ll likely start 2011 in AA. He is what he is – a strike throwing lefty with a high 80’s fastball, decent slider, decent change.

 

17. Brooks Raley.

 

Cubs fans joked about good Raley and bad Raley. He was very off and on early in the year. He finished strong, though, with a good run from July-September. He had, overall, a 6.4 K/9 and a 2.84 BB/9. I like Raley more than Rusin, as I can dream about the athletic Raley adding/improving his stuff as he gets more accustomed to pitching full-time. Right now, though, Raley’s stuff is, as expected, average like Rusin’s, featuring a fastball that tops out in the low 90’s, with decent secondary pitches. It’s not enough for me to jump him over Rusin’s polish just yet. I expect him to start 2011 in AA.

 

18. Jeffry Antigua.

 

Antigua had himself a solid year in Peoria. He comes armed with a high 80’s fastball that occasionally touhes low 90, and he has a solid change and a decent slider. With that arsenal, he posted a 8.52 K rate and a 3.19 BB rate in Peoria. He might not have the ceiling some dreamed for once, but he looks like a potential solid lefty starting prospect who should be in A+ next year.

 

19. Ryan Flaherty.

 

The former supplemental first round pick had an interesting year. After a strong season at Peoria in 2009, he was given a chance to start in Tennessee. While he posted solid discipline numbers, his bat struggled in the 84 AB’s he had there (BABIP .200). He was sent down to A+, where he had a relatively solid year, posting a .286/.348/.445 line. Defensively, in another system, he might’ve had a chance to make it up as a shortstop, but he’s played more 2nd/3rd, and in AFL, he picked up an OF glove. He’s still an intriguing guy with some pop, good athleticism, a good approach at the plate. The comparisons to Mark DeRosa/Jeff Baker types of players may hold true. Look for him to start 2011 in AA, but likely in a utility type role, getting time at 2nd/3rd, perhaps corner OF, and perhaps an occasional look at short when someone needs a breather (probably Lake).

 

20. Matt Cerda.

 

The Cubs finally ditched the catching experiment with Cerda, and he went on to have a solid season in Peoria. He posted a .271/.365/.377 line in Peoria, striking out 15.1% of the time while walking 12.8% of the time. He started off at 3rd base, as Logan Watkins was considered the regular 2nd baseman entering the year. As the season progressed, Cerda got more 2nd base time. The reports were positive on his ability to play 2nd and 3rd. While he does have some pop in his bat, his chances of making it up at 2nd is probably higher. I look for him to be playing 2nd and 3rd in A+ Daytona next year. I like him better than Flaherty, in all honesty, but I want to see that power develop and performance at upper levels before I jump Cerda up more.

 

21. Nick Struck.

 

I’m probably higher on Struck than many others . The athletic overslot kid (125 K, former shortstop in HS, IIRC) had a solid 2010. He showed, as expected, a low 90’s fastball that topped at 93 with good secondary pitches. There are some expectations that he may add velo as he physically matures. He had a decent run at Peoria and then got bumped to Daytona. I like his upside. He’ll likely start in A+ to start 2011.

 

22. Jae-Hoon Ha.

 

A lot of Cubs fans are far higher on Ha than I am. The Korean was tried at catcher, but they moved him off. Last year, a wrist injury sapped his power in Boise. Ha offers excellent tools, with power potential, athleticism, and a good strong arm. Moving up to Boise this year, he put those tools to good use, posting a .317/.334/.468 line. The part that bothers me is the 15.4% K rate and the 3.2% BB Rate. I guess seeing so many of those guys come through the system has me unnecessarily wary of Ha at the moment. There is a reasonable case to put him in the top 15. I’m also not completely sold on the power ceiling some suggest.

 

23. Darwin Barney.

 

There’s a part of me that wants to solid the Oregon State product up a few notches. While I think projectprospect’s ranking of him was too high, I do think Darwin is a tad underrated. Here’s a guy who has better athleticism than acknowledged, has good range and plays a solid short. He’s not an elite bat, and a bit aggressive at the plate considering his limited offense. That said, he sees breaking balls well enough that he shouldn’t be a complete zero offensively. He’s more suited for a utility infielder role, but it isn’t inconceivable to see him as a starter for a 2nd tier squad.

 

24. DJ LeMahieu.

 

People have been waiting for DJ to add power for a long time. At this point, it’s just not likely to happen barring a surprise. He posted a .314/.346/.386 line in A+ Daytona before getting the bump to Tennessee. He got some time at short, but also spent plenty of time at 2nd and 3rd. There are some who think the Cubs believe he is best suited, defensively, at 3rd, but I don’t see any way that bat plays for 3rd base. His glovework is decent-solid overall, and like Flaherty, he probably could’ve made it up as a shortstop, at least up to AA, in another system. I don’t like the fact that he only walks 4.8% of the time. To me, he feels like a utility infielder type at best. He should be in AA for 2011, likely splitting time between 2nd/SS/3rd.

 

25. Dae-Eun Rhee.

 

The highly touted Rhee came onto the scene in 2008 in Peoria, before getting TJ. He came back to fullseason duty this year at Daytona … and was disappointing. That said, for his first year back, I’m willing to grant a mulligan. Furthermore, he wasn’t throwing his devastating splitter. If he can regain that pitch and throw it with consistency, he could make a quick move back up the prospect lists for me. If not, he’ll drop like a rock. My other concern with Rhee is durability. Leave aside the TJ for a moment – he’s not a big guy and he might not be able to handle the workload to stay as a starter.

 

26. Welington Castillo.

 

Upper level catcher has improved defensively, although still needs more work. Offensively, has some pop, but doesn’t make enough contact. Likely a backup backstop at best.

 

27. Aaron Kurcz.

 

Kurcz is likely a fast-track pen arm with a mid-90’s fastball and a good, hard slider. There’s a chance that the Cubs may give him a spin as a starter, but his future is likely in the pen. While he hasn’t reached AA like Dolis, I gave him the nod over Dolis because reports on Kurcz’s secondary stuff is better.

 

28. Rafael Dolis.

 

Dolis had a great Instruct start last fall, showing his upper 90’s fastball and a solid slider and a decet change. Unfortunately, that slider was very inconsistent in 2010. His future is likely in the pen, but the Cubs may keep him in the AA rotation to start 2011 in an effort to get him more work on his secondary pitches. While he doesn’t strike out nearly enough for a guy with that type of fastball, he does a good job keeping the ball in the park that, if he develops more consistency on the slider, it’s possible to see him as a good late-inning arm.

 

29. Brett Wallach.

 

I gave Wallach the nod over Lopez on polish right now, although Lopez has the higher ceiling. I’m not real sold that Wallach will add the velocity some have suggested he could, but it is a possibility, and he has more polished secondary pitches at the moment.

 

30. Robinson Lopez.

 

I’m not nearly as high on Lopez as others are. I just don’t see it. Now, I slotted him in the top 30 because he does offer great upside, but I’m not sure what he offers that, say, makes him better than Rafael Dolis? His fastball is probably better, but is it enough to overcome Dolis being somewhat productive in the upper levels? I don’t see the case for it, but on upside, he deserves to be here.

[toonsterwu]

Didn't realize how long that came out to be

 

1. Brett Jackson, B+.

2. Chris Archer, B+.

3. Kenneth McNutt, borderline B+.

4. Chris Carpenter, borderline B.

5. Hak-ju Lee, borderline B.

6. Josh Vitters, B-.

7. Jay Jackson, B-.

8. Junior Lake, borderline B-.

9. Reggie Golden

10. Ben Wells

11. Hayden Simpson.

12. Brandon Guyer

13. Jin-Yeong Kim.

14. Robinson Chirinos.

15. Alberto Cabrera.

16. Chris Rusin.

17. Brooks Raley.

18. Jeffry Antigua.

19. Ryan Flaherty.

20. Matt Cerda.

21. Nick Struck.

22. Jae-Hoon Ha.

23. Darwin Barney.

24. DJ LeMahieu.

25. Dae-Eun Rhee.

26. Welington Castillo.

27. Aaron Kurcz.

28. Rafael Dolis.

29. Brett Wallach.

30. Robinson Lopez.

 

the guys that missed so far that has me pondering things - Austin Reed, Austin Kirk, Su-min Jung.

[Guest]

Wow, Carpenter at #4. When I was making my list I was thinking, "there's so much similarity between like number 5 and number 30 that it's almost possible to be taken off guard by anyone being anywhere". I was wrong.

[toonsterwu]

Wow, Carpenter at #4. When I was making my list I was thinking, "there's so much similarity between like number 5 and number 30 that it's almost possible to be taken off guard by anyone being anywhere". I was wrong.

 

Well, I was outvoted on the consensus top 10, and I definitely understand the concern. I want to say Carpenter finished 7th off the top.

 

First, I tend to view the system as 1-3, 4-8 relatively close, 9-35 being vaguely close.

 

That said, Carpenter is, IMO, safer than Vitters and Lee right now. He's going to end up around 150 innings for the year. He still has a mid-90's fastball to go with a good slider and a decent change. There's still a decent shot that he's a possible number 3 starter.

 

I definitely get the concerns, but right now, I tend to think that Lee and Vitters have as many, if not more, concerns as Carpenter.