Cubs 2nd in OPS in second half?

[Dallas Green]

Did anyone catch Len saying the Cubs were second in team OPS in the second half? Is that for real? and does that change anyones thoughts on how to improve this team in the off season? Is it just as simple as 1b and pitching, pitching?

[champaignchris]

2nd in the National League behind the Brewers, .761 since the All Star Break.

 

Team ERA is last in the National League since the ASB, 5.41, giving up an .810 OPS against.

[rawaction]

I think 1B and a couple pitchers could make the difference, quite honestly.

 

The Cubs are 21st in the majors in production from 1B. NL average OPS is more than 70 points higher. If you get above average production from 1b, assume Ramirez goes back to above average 3B production, and get the expected increases from whoever is at 2B all year and Castro at SS all year, and no huge regressions in the OF and C, then the Cubs offense should be above average.

 

A top of the rotation pitcher to go along w/ Dempster, Zambrano, Gorzellany, and Wells could make the rotation very strong also and the Cubs would be just as good as any team in the NL, IMO.

[Backtobanks]

I think 1B and a couple pitchers could make the difference, quite honestly.

 

The Cubs are 21st in the majors in production from 1B. NL average OPS is more than 70 points higher. If you get above average production from 1b, assume Ramirez goes back to above average 3B production, and get the expected increases from whoever is at 2B all year and Castro at SS all year, and no huge regressions in the OF and C, then the Cubs offense should be above average.

 

A top of the rotation pitcher to go along w/ Dempster, Zambrano, Gorzellany, and Wells could make the rotation very strong also and the Cubs would be just as good as any team in the NL, IMO.

 

Look at what might have been this year if DLee, ARam, Zambrano, and Grabow had career-average years.

[Dallas Green]

I think 1B and a couple pitchers could make the difference, quite honestly.

 

The Cubs are 21st in the majors in production from 1B. NL average OPS is more than 70 points higher. If you get above average production from 1b, assume Ramirez goes back to above average 3B production, and get the expected increases from whoever is at 2B all year and Castro at SS all year, and no huge regressions in the OF and C, then the Cubs offense should be above average.

 

A top of the rotation pitcher to go along w/ Dempster, Zambrano, Gorzellany, and Wells could make the rotation very strong also and the Cubs would be just as good as any team in the NL, IMO.

 

Look at what might have been this year if DLee, ARam, Zambrano, and Grabow had career-average years.

 

Agreed, you got NOTHING out of 3/4 hitters and #1 starter

[Dallas Green]

I think 1B and a couple pitchers could make the difference, quite honestly.

 

The Cubs are 21st in the majors in production from 1B. NL average OPS is more than 70 points higher. If you get above average production from 1b, assume Ramirez goes back to above average 3B production, and get the expected increases from whoever is at 2B all year and Castro at SS all year, and no huge regressions in the OF and C, then the Cubs offense should be above average.

 

A top of the rotation pitcher to go along w/ Dempster, Zambrano, Gorzellany, and Wells could make the rotation very strong also and the Cubs would be just as good as any team in the NL, IMO.

 

Look at what might have been this year if DLee, ARam, Zambrano, and Grabow had career-average years.

 

Agreed, you got NOTHING out of 3/4 hitters and #1 starter

[MembersOnlyJacket]

The best part about it, the Cubs are 3rd in the NL in quality starts this season.

 

Everyone, everyone said the bullpen was a weakness entering the season. And, it killed the team.

[Sammy Sofa]

The bullpen didn't kill the team. The bullpen certainly hasn't helped most of the season, but the offense shoulders most of the blame. Sure, it's all well and good that they've put together a decent OPS post-ASB, but the first half offense was appalling.

[CubColtPacer]

The bullpen didn't kill the team. The bullpen certainly hasn't helped most of the season, but the offense shoulders most of the blame. Sure, it's all well and good that they've put together a decent OPS post-ASB, but the first half offense was appalling.

 

For the season now the bullpen has had a much bigger impact on run differential.

 

The Cubs offense is 12 runs worse than average for the NL (18 runs worse than median).

 

The Cubs starting pitching has been 5 runs worse than average (4 runs worse than median).

 

The Cubs bullpen has been 41 runs worse than average (49.5 worse than median).

 

Even though the bullpen is much less important than the offense or the starting pitching, the Cubs bullpen has been so much worse relative to the league in that area than the other two that it has overcomed that relative unimportance to still be worse.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean that the Cubs should focus on the bullpen in the offseason since there has so much variability there and almost everything has been absolutely awful there this year. But the bullpen has definitely been the biggest cause for the Cubs having such a bad run differential. To examine how run differential translates to wins/losses this season would require a much more detailed analysis.

[Backtobanks]

The bullpen didn't kill the team. The bullpen certainly hasn't helped most of the season, but the offense shoulders most of the blame. Sure, it's all well and good that they've put together a decent OPS post-ASB, but the first half offense was appalling.

 

For the season now the bullpen has had a much bigger impact on run differential.

 

The Cubs offense is 12 runs worse than average for the NL (18 runs worse than median).

 

The Cubs starting pitching has been 5 runs worse than average (4 runs worse than median).

 

The Cubs bullpen has been 41 runs worse than average (49.5 worse than median).

 

Even though the bullpen is much less important than the offense or the starting pitching, the Cubs bullpen has been so much worse relative to the league in that area than the other two that it has overcomed that relative unimportance to still be worse.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean that the Cubs should focus on the bullpen in the offseason since there has so much variability there and almost everything has been absolutely awful there this year. But the bullpen has definitely been the biggest cause for the Cubs having such a bad run differential. To examine how run differential translates to wins/losses this season would require a much more detailed analysis.

 

I would imagine most of those statistics are skewed by a bunch of AAA pitchers pitching relief in meaningless games.

[Sammy Sofa]

But aren't those numbers skewed by games where the bullpen gives up multiple runs? It strikes me that the offense still has more impact if it's lackluster. Look how many close games the Cubs have blown because the offense simply couldn't catch up to a 1 or 2-run deficit over multiple innings. Sure, you have a crappy bullpen that's going to go in there and give up a run or two on average, but what if that just makes the game 2-0 or 3-2 or or 4-3 or 4-2 or 2-1 and so on?

 

Don't get me wrong, the bullpen sucks and if more of the Cubs' key players had just been performing to their career averages it's be the glaring problem, but to say that the bullpen "killed" the season implies that it was an anchor that took down a team that even had a remote shot of being competitive.

 

Let me put it this way; the bullpen has been worse in "its" individual role, but the offense being bad has had much more of an impact of "killing" the season.

[Guest]

But aren't those numbers skewed by games where the bullpen gives up multiple runs? It strikes me that the offense still has more impact if it's lackluster. Look how many close games the Cubs have blown because the offense simply couldn't catch up to a 1 or 2-run deficit over multiple innings. Sure, you have a crappy bullpen that's going to go in there and give up a run or two on average, but what if that just makes the game 2-0 or 3-2 or or 4-3 or 4-2 or 2-1 and so on?

 

Don't get me wrong, the bullpen sucks and if more of the Cubs' key players had just been performing to their career averages it's be the glaring problem, but to say that the bullpen "killed" the season implies that it was an anchor that took down a team that even had a remote shot of being competitive.

 

Let me put it this way; the bullpen has been worse in "its" individual role, but the offense being bad has had much more of an impact of "killing" the season.

 

Well the Cubs are 27th in WPA for relievers, so I don't think it's low leverage situations making it appear the bullpen is awful.

[Sammy Sofa]

But aren't those numbers skewed by games where the bullpen gives up multiple runs? It strikes me that the offense still has more impact if it's lackluster. Look how many close games the Cubs have blown because the offense simply couldn't catch up to a 1 or 2-run deficit over multiple innings. Sure, you have a crappy bullpen that's going to go in there and give up a run or two on average, but what if that just makes the game 2-0 or 3-2 or or 4-3 or 4-2 or 2-1 and so on?

 

Don't get me wrong, the bullpen sucks and if more of the Cubs' key players had just been performing to their career averages it's be the glaring problem, but to say that the bullpen "killed" the season implies that it was an anchor that took down a team that even had a remote shot of being competitive.

 

Let me put it this way; the bullpen has been worse in "its" individual role, but the offense being bad has had much more of an impact of "killing" the season.

 

Well the Cubs are 27th in WPA for relievers, so I don't think it's low leverage situations making it appear the bullpen is awful.

 

I didn't say they were. In fact, one would assume it would largely be the opposite in the first half.

 

My point is that as this team has been constructed the offense has gone much further to "killing" the team. If the bullpen had actually been decent, the team still would have been horrible. If the offense had been decent, things would have been much different. Look how many infuriating one-run losses they've had.

[Guest]

But aren't those numbers skewed by games where the bullpen gives up multiple runs? It strikes me that the offense still has more impact if it's lackluster. Look how many close games the Cubs have blown because the offense simply couldn't catch up to a 1 or 2-run deficit over multiple innings. Sure, you have a crappy bullpen that's going to go in there and give up a run or two on average, but what if that just makes the game 2-0 or 3-2 or or 4-3 or 4-2 or 2-1 and so on?

 

Don't get me wrong, the bullpen sucks and if more of the Cubs' key players had just been performing to their career averages it's be the glaring problem, but to say that the bullpen "killed" the season implies that it was an anchor that took down a team that even had a remote shot of being competitive.

 

Let me put it this way; the bullpen has been worse in "its" individual role, but the offense being bad has had much more of an impact of "killing" the season.

 

Well the Cubs are 27th in WPA for relievers, so I don't think it's low leverage situations making it appear the bullpen is awful.

 

I didn't say they were. In fact, one would assume it would largely be the opposite in the first half.

 

My point is that as this team has been constructed the offense has gone much further to "killing" the team. If the bullpen had actually been decent, the team still would have been horrible. If the offense had been decent, things would have been much different. Look how many infuriating one-run losses they've had.

A number of those infuriating one-run losses have been due to the pen, though.

[rawaction]

How bad has the defense been relative to the league average?

 

I know the Cubs lead the league in errors and have the most unearned runs allowed in the majors. That certainly hasn't helped either.

[KaiserCesar]

We can't forget about how much Blake Dewitt has added over Theriot in the 2nd half. With the Cubs so far he's got a .308/.384/.431 line. Also, guys like Fukudome and Castro have had a good 2nd half and the only really bad position has been catcher in Soto's absence. I think the offense is 1 bat away, but as mentioned in this thread, the bullpen needs some work and the rotation would only improve with a top tier starter who is a significant upgrade over the big group of guys who can give an ERA of 3.5-4.5.

[risico]

How bad has the defense been relative to the league average?

 

I know the Cubs lead the league in errors and have the most unearned runs allowed in the majors. That certainly hasn't helped either.

 

UZR has the Cubs as an average to slightly below-average defensive team. As you said, the team has a problem with errors. But they make up for this by being a bit above average in terms of range and throwing out baserunners.

 

DRS has the Cubs as one of the worst fielding teams in the league.

[Clem Fandango]

Your numbers tend to go up when your best hitters stop being your worst hitters and start being, you know, your best hitters.

 

Aside form Lee and Ramirez, the offense was actually pretty good, but they are the #3 and #4 hitters and the two guys who anchor your lineup. It's catastrophic when they don't perform. Soriano, Byrd, Castro, Colvin, Soto, have all performed very well this year on offense, but when your two best hitters wind up hitting among the likes of Juan Pierre and Aaron Miles the first couple of months it kinda hurts

[imb]

We can't forget about how much Blake Dewitt has added over Theriot in the 2nd half. With the Cubs so far he's got a .308/.384/.431 line. Also, guys like Fukudome and Castro have had a good 2nd half and the only really bad position has been catcher in Soto's absence. I think the offense is 1 bat away, but as mentioned in this thread, the bullpen needs some work and the rotation would only improve with a top tier starter who is a significant upgrade over the big group of guys who can give an ERA of 3.5-4.5.

 

i didnt realize how great dewitt had been since coming over. that's encouraging.

[Rob]

We can't forget about how much Blake Dewitt has added over Theriot in the 2nd half. With the Cubs so far he's got a .308/.384/.431 line. Also, guys like Fukudome and Castro have had a good 2nd half and the only really bad position has been catcher in Soto's absence. I think the offense is 1 bat away, but as mentioned in this thread, the bullpen needs some work and the rotation would only improve with a top tier starter who is a significant upgrade over the big group of guys who can give an ERA of 3.5-4.5.

 

i didnt realize how great dewitt had been since coming over. that's encouraging.

 

Those are the old numbers. Through tonight's game he's at .338/.405/.507

[Dallas Green]

Already feel like the deal was a success as De Witt is a huge upgrade over Theriot. At the very least, he will be a valuable bench player, but I like him at 2b so far.

[Sammy Sofa]

A number of those infuriating one-run losses have been due to the pen, though.

 

You can live with a bullpen that gives up a run or two too often if your offense isn't struggling to muster up more than a run or two over the course of the entire game.

[SouthSideRyan]

Already feel like the deal was a success as De Witt is a huge upgrade over Theriot. At the very least, he will be a valuable bench player, but I like him at 2b so far.

 

Blake DeWitt is better than Ryan Theriot this year, and is younger. Of course it was a success. The Lilly portion of the trade was the issue

[Soul]

We can't forget about how much Blake Dewitt has added over Theriot in the 2nd half. With the Cubs so far he's got a .308/.384/.431 line. Also, guys like Fukudome and Castro have had a good 2nd half and the only really bad position has been catcher in Soto's absence. I think the offense is 1 bat away, but as mentioned in this thread, the bullpen needs some work and the rotation would only improve with a top tier starter who is a significant upgrade over the big group of guys who can give an ERA of 3.5-4.5.

 

i didnt realize how great dewitt had been since coming over. that's encouraging.

 

Yes, it's been good to see. He had a nice game last night too.

[Dallas Green]

Already feel like the deal was a success as De Witt is a huge upgrade over Theriot. At the very least, he will be a valuable bench player, but I like him at 2b so far.

 

Blake DeWitt is better than Ryan Theriot this year, and is younger. Of course it was a success. The Lilly portion of the trade was the issue

 

 

Yeah, really wanted Ely, but Wallach was someone they liked, and who knows Lilly may be back, the 34 part i dont like so much, but leftys tend to have more shelf life