The 2010 offseason

[fromthestretch]

 

Marmol, Marshall, and Cashner are the start of a good bullpen.

 

I would really hope they'd give Cashner a chance to start.

[dew1679666265]

So basically, assuming payroll stays roughly the same, you've $30M to sign a starting 1B, starting 2B, spot starter 3B, and 3/4 slot starting pitcher. I don't see the money stretching that far. Barring a blockbuster of a trade that completely restructures the team, they'll probably be a major player for one of the big 1B FAs, sign a couple of "meh" utility infielders, and a "meh" starting pitcher. Not real exciting.

 

We shouldn't need to sign much, if any, pitching. With Cashner, Diamond, J Jackson and others looking ready for a major league rotation (or close, at least) we shouldn't put any FA money into pitching.

 

And there's not really a "big" 1B FA in this offseason. The best first baseman likely available are Jorge Cantu and Adam Dunn. Cantu would be a good option, but Dunn will likely be too expensive. It would make more sense to find a stopgap first baseman (Cantu) and wait for the 2011 offseason when Gonzalez and Fielder are available (and in a longshot, Pujols). The second base free agents are also terrible, so a Baker/Fontenot platoon should be the way to go.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm struggling to see the difference between Wright and Ramirez before this season.

 

Wright has been better at a pre-prime age and missed a lot less games. He's got a career 137 OPS+ to Aramis's 112, his best years have been better than Ramirez's best years, he's played 160 games a few times and his worst/injury plagued year was essentially a typical Ramirez season as a Cub.

 

I'm struggling to see how anybody could miss the obvious delineation between the two.

 

Meant to mention from their first full seasons with their teams. Aramis had outhit Wright during that time.

[SouthSideRyan]

At least we still have 4 more years of Soriano!

 

Soriano's just gonna flip everyone off on his way to OPSing 870 the next 10 years

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm struggling to see the difference between Wright and Ramirez before this season.

 

Wright has been better at a pre-prime age and missed a lot less games. He's got a career 137 OPS+ to Aramis's 112, his best years have been better than Ramirez's best years, he's played 160 games a few times and his worst/injury plagued year was essentially a typical Ramirez season as a Cub.

 

I'm struggling to see how anybody could miss the obvious delineation between the two.

 

Meant to mention from their first full seasons with their teams. Aramis had outhit Wright during that time.

 

What time was this?

[jersey cubs fan]

So basically, assuming payroll stays roughly the same, you've $30M to sign a starting 1B, starting 2B, spot starter 3B, and 3/4 slot starting pitcher. I don't see the money stretching that far. Barring a blockbuster of a trade that completely restructures the team, they'll probably be a major player for one of the big 1B FAs, sign a couple of "meh" utility infielders, and a "meh" starting pitcher. Not real exciting.

 

We shouldn't need to sign much, if any, pitching. With Cashner, Diamond, J Jackson and others looking ready for a major league rotation (or close, at least) we shouldn't put any FA money into pitching.

 

And there's not really a "big" 1B FA in this offseason. The best first baseman likely available are Jorge Cantu and Adam Dunn. Cantu would be a good option, but Dunn will likely be too expensive. It would make more sense to find a stopgap first baseman (Cantu) and wait for the 2011 offseason when Gonzalez and Fielder are available (and in a longshot, Pujols). The second base free agents are also terrible, so a Baker/Fontenot platoon should be the way to go.

 

In what way is Dunn likely to be too expensive? As in more than he's worth or more than they can afford? Because with Lee and Lilly and Theriot as good as gone, I don't see how money is an issue unless they are slashing payroll.

[E.J.]

 

Marmol, Marshall, and Cashner are the start of a good bullpen.

 

I would really hope they'd give Cashner a chance to start.

 

I would hope they'd give Cashner and Marshall a chance to start.

[Guest]

I think the window where it makes sense to try Marshall in the rotation is rapidly closing, if it's not already closed.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm struggling to see the difference between Wright and Ramirez before this season.

 

Wright has been better at a pre-prime age and missed a lot less games. He's got a career 137 OPS+ to Aramis's 112, his best years have been better than Ramirez's best years, he's played 160 games a few times and his worst/injury plagued year was essentially a typical Ramirez season as a Cub.

 

I'm struggling to see how anybody could miss the obvious delineation between the two.

 

Meant to mention from their first full seasons with their teams. Aramis had outhit Wright during that time.

 

What time was this?

 

Wright's first full season with the Mets ('05) through '09 vs. Ramirez's first full season with the Cubs through '09.

 

Of course, looking back, I didn't park adjust and was using raw OPS which underrates Wright. I still think it's hard to say a 900 OPS from a 3B isn't a stud.

[jersey cubs fan]

Of course, looking back, I didn't park adjust and was using raw OPS which underrates Wright. I still think it's hard to say a 900 OPS from a 3B isn't a stud.

 

Well, Ramirez has always been close, as I said, but he's been a tick behind the best guys at his position and hasn't been able to play full seasons. That matters.

 

Also, since we're talking about this offseason, Ramirez's stud status is no longer just in question, but gone.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think the window where it makes sense to try Marshall in the rotation is rapidly closing, if it's not already closed.

 

I'm not shy about hating the way Marshall's been treated the past 3+ seasons, but I'm inclined to agree. Not so much that I don't think Marshall can still hack it in the rotation, but he's at best slotted behind Jackson and Cashner at first cracks at a rotation that already has 5 guys signed for next season.

[cardinalsfan]

Albert Pujols MAY be available after 2011 season. I don't expect him to be but you never know..

[jersey cubs fan]

I think the window where it makes sense to try Marshall in the rotation is rapidly closing, if it's not already closed.

 

I'm not shy about hating the way Marshall's been treated the past 3+ seasons, but I'm inclined to agree. Not so much that I don't think Marshall can still hack it in the rotation, but he's at best slotted behind Jackson and Cashner at first cracks at a rotation that already has 5 guys signed for next season.

 

Yeah, Marshall to rotation is probably a lost cause. I wouldn't want him throwing 150 innings against for a couple years, and then he's 29 and you have to make free agency decisions.

[dew1679666265]

In what way is Dunn likely to be too expensive? As in more than he's worth or more than they can afford? Because with Lee and Lilly and Theriot as good as gone, I don't see how money is an issue unless they are slashing payroll.

 

More than he's worth considering the first base FA class likely to be there in 2011. Dunn is still a great player, but is getting up there in age and will want a contract meant for a young stud in his prime. If we sign Dunn to a deal like that this offseason, we'll miss on the better players in the 2011 offseason.

[jersey cubs fan]

In what way is Dunn likely to be too expensive? As in more than he's worth or more than they can afford? Because with Lee and Lilly and Theriot as good as gone, I don't see how money is an issue unless they are slashing payroll.

 

More than he's worth considering the first base FA class likely to be there in 2011. Dunn is still a great player, but is getting up there in age and will want a contract meant for a young stud in his prime. If we sign Dunn to a deal like that this offseason, we'll miss on the better players in the 2011 offseason.

 

Well, a bird in the hand and all that. If he's looking for 7/120, then count me out, but I don't think he's realistically going to get youn stud in his prime money.

[SouthSideRyan]

In what way is Dunn likely to be too expensive? As in more than he's worth or more than they can afford? Because with Lee and Lilly and Theriot as good as gone, I don't see how money is an issue unless they are slashing payroll.

 

More than he's worth considering the first base FA class likely to be there in 2011. Dunn is still a great player, but is getting up there in age and will want a contract meant for a young stud in his prime. If we sign Dunn to a deal like that this offseason, we'll miss on the better players in the 2011 offseason.

 

Well, a bird in the hand and all that. If he's looking for 7/120, then count me out, but I don't think he's realistically going to get youn stud in his prime money.

 

Yeah, he just got 2/20 2 years ago, I don't see why he'd get anything outrageous this time around.

[Guest]

The Cubs are too barren at 1B and have too much talent elsewhere on the roster to pass on a good 1B just because a better one might come available. Especially when the only better options are Pujols and Gonzalez, neither of whom are going to be better values than Dunn anyway.

[Guest]

The Cubs are too barren at 1B and have too much talent elsewhere on the roster to pass on a good 1B just because a better one might come available. Especially when the only better options are Pujols and Gonzalez, neither of whom are going to be better values than Dunn anyway.

If we're talking about acquiring Dunn, my only response is what has taken the Cubs so long? However, I have a strong to very strong suspicion that the Cubs don't value Dunn as much as we do, or they should.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are too barren at 1B and have too much talent elsewhere on the roster to pass on a good 1B just because a better one might come available. Especially when the only better options are Pujols and Gonzalez, neither of whom are going to be better values than Dunn anyway.

If we're talking about acquiring Dunn, my only response is what has taken the Cubs so long? However, I have a strong to very strong suspicion that the Cubs don't value Dunn as much as we do, or they should.

 

I think they have been interested, but with Lee at 1B felt they didn't want to commit to a guy they didn't feel like playing in the OF every year.

[dew1679666265]

Yeah, he just got 2/20 2 years ago, I don't see why he'd get anything outrageous this time around.

 

Now that he's playing first base, he's worth a whole lot more. He won't get a mega-deal, but apparently he's looking for a 3-4 year deal worth more annually than his current deal. And eliminating his awful OF defense might just help to get him that.

 

The Cubs are too barren at 1B and have too much talent elsewhere on the roster to pass on a good 1B just because a better one might come available. Especially when the only better options are Pujols and Gonzalez, neither of whom are going to be better values than Dunn anyway.

 

My main concern with Dunn is that he'll be 31 by the start of next season. If we can get him for just 2 years or so, I might not have a problem with that. If the offers get to 3-4 years, I'm not sure I want to give him that.

 

I would put Prince Fielder in that group as well. He's not been more valuable than Dunn this year (2.8 WAR for Fielder, 3.0 WAR for Dunn), but he's nearly 3 years younger.

[dew1679666265]

The Cubs are too barren at 1B and have too much talent elsewhere on the roster to pass on a good 1B just because a better one might come available. Especially when the only better options are Pujols and Gonzalez, neither of whom are going to be better values than Dunn anyway.

If we're talking about acquiring Dunn, my only response is what has taken the Cubs so long? However, I have a strong to very strong suspicion that the Cubs don't value Dunn as much as we do, or they should.

 

I think they have been interested, but with Lee at 1B felt they didn't want to commit to a guy they didn't feel like playing in the OF every year.

 

Yeah, all the rumors have been that his offense has interested them, but his defense has kept them from going after him.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, he just got 2/20 2 years ago, I don't see why he'd get anything outrageous this time around.

 

Now that he's playing first base, he's worth a whole lot more. He won't get a mega-deal, but apparently he's looking for a 3-4 year deal worth more annually than his current deal. And eliminating his awful OF defense might just help to get him that.

 

The Cubs are too barren at 1B and have too much talent elsewhere on the roster to pass on a good 1B just because a better one might come available. Especially when the only better options are Pujols and Gonzalez, neither of whom are going to be better values than Dunn anyway.

 

My main concern with Dunn is that he'll be 31 by the start of next season. If we can get him for just 2 years or so, I might not have a problem with that. If the offers get to 3-4 years, I'm not sure I want to give him that.

 

I would put Prince Fielder in that group as well. He's not been more valuable than Dunn this year (2.8 WAR for Fielder, 3.0 WAR for Dunn), but he's nearly 3 years younger.

 

Would 4/44 freak you out?

[champaignchris]

I think Dunn's massively undervalued as a player by the media and consequently fans in general. The disparity between the media coverage on him and that on Howard makes me irrationally angry.

 

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the Cubs put a good wad of money on Dunn at first base for about 4 years. Is he going to command more than $20M a year? Don't know. But there's no reason why the Cubs shouldn't be a player for him.

 

I think Konerko, Berkman, and Carlos Pena are all going to be free agents, but I don't see any of them being major upgrades over Lee. Konerko and Berkman might still swing a better bat, but they're just as old as Lee and I'd question whether either would be able to field their position for the duration of even a two year contract. I suppose Pena is a couple years younger and might make for a decent stop-gap. He's even more of an all-or-nothing hitter than Dunn is and is not having a very good year. (Still better than Lee, though.)

 

Jorge Cantu doesn't do much for me at all as a Lee replacement. As Ramirez insurance? Sure, but I don't see him as the "big bat" we're looking for.

[dew1679666265]

Would 4/44 freak you out?

 

Freak me out? No, but even a guy as good as Dunn gets a bit iffy as far as production once he hits his mid-30s. I'm just not real comfortable with the idea of paying him $10+ million at 35. He's got the skill set to age well, but I'm still not comfortable with him at 34-35.

 

Of course, a potential 7-year deal to Gonzalez is uncomfortable as well. I think there's the potential for a 5/100-110 deal for Gonzalez, though, and I'm pretty confident he'll be very valuable throughout that contract.

[jersey cubs fan]

Would 4/44 freak you out?

 

Freak me out? No, but even a guy as good as Dunn gets a bit iffy as far as production once he hits his mid-30s. I'm just not real comfortable with the idea of paying him $10+ million at 35. He's got the skill set to age well, but I'm still not comfortable with him at 34-35.

 

Of course, a potential 7-year deal to Gonzalez is uncomfortable as well. I think there's the potential for a 5/100-110 deal for Gonzalez, though, and I'm pretty confident he'll be very valuable throughout that contract.

 

That also requires you waiting and hoping he comes to the Cubs. If you let Dunn go for the prettier girl and then she goes to the dance with somebody else, you are spending a lot of lonely nights at home for several years to come.