The 2010 offseason

[CubColtPacer]

At the end of 2009, it looked like the 2010 offseason would be the official disaster point for the team. The three main consistent cogs Lee, Ramirez, and Lilly would all either be leaving or signed to bad contracts well past their useful point. That would leave a horrible core of players and a lot of money already spent.

 

But is that true anymore? Look at who is dooming the 2010 team:

 

Derrek Lee: .244/.333/.387

Ryan Theriot: .273/.311/.307

Aramis Ramirez: .219/.277/.414

Xavier Nady: .221/.291/.343

Jeff Baker: .246/.289/.397

Carlos Zambrano: 5.66 ERA in 55 2/3 innings

Koyie Hill: .213/.253/.281

assorted relievers

 

Lee is likely gone. Theriot could very well be gone either now or as a non-tender. Nady will be gone. Baker might be gone. Z will likely still be with the Cubs although they'll do their hardest to move them. It's hard to know what they'll do with Hill. And Ramirez will now likely stay with the Cubs and he's the likeliest to bounce back of all of them for a few reasons.

 

And who are the Cubs losing that is good? Ted Lilly. And he's had a 4.07 ERA this year which is good but isn't the incredibly hard to replace that his 2009 numbers would have been.

 

The players who are likely to come back happen to be all the ones producing while last year they were all the ones with big question marks.

 

The 2010 year has been a disappointment but it could have been a lot worse. If Lee, Ramirez, and Lilly had been carrying this team while the others had struggled like last year than the future would have been horrible. Instead, the players who will be here longterm have been the bright spots. And a terrible year also might push Theriot out of the door who most people had in their terrible core projections for 2011 and beyond.

 

So how good is the Cubs core now after you subtract the players that are leaving? If you were given a team of Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome/Colvin, Ramirez, Castro, Fontenot, ??, Soto, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, Silva, ??, Marmol, Marshall, and Cashner either in the rotation or in the bullpen, how much would need to be added to make that team good?

[Prizefight]

Ramirez has over 14m in a player option for 2011. Unless he absolutely rakes for the rest of the season, I can't imagine him turning that down unless he's going to take a pay cut to try to sign with a contender.

[CubColtPacer]

Ramirez has over 14m in a player option for 2011. Unless he absolutely rakes for the rest of the season, I can't imagine him turning that down unless he's going to take a pay cut to try to sign with a contender.

 

Sorry. Meant to say that Ramirez will now likely stay with the Cubs (which is why I included him in the core for next year) and had a typo.

[jersey cubs fan]

If you were given a team of Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome/Colvin, Ramirez, Castro, Fontenot, ??, Soto, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, Silva, ??, Marmol, Marshall, and Cashner either in the rotation or in the bullpen, how much would need to be added to make that team good?

 

A whole heck of a lot.

[SouthSideRyan]

The problem is we're a lot worse in 2010 than most people expected so we're starting at a lower baseline.

[dew1679666265]

I think we've got a lot of the support pieces we need to form a good to very good team. However, we don't have that major impact bat that can take us from mediocre to great. I'd feel a lot better about our chances to be competitive in 2011 if this free agent class included the premiere guys who will be there in the 2011 offseason (Adrian Gonzalez and Fielder, primarily).

 

We'd probably be best served finding more complimentary pieces (Cantu) and leaving enough budget room and a place on the field for the impact bats that will be there next offseason.

[mookie]

Cantu does appear to be one of the only options available to slot in at first in the off season. I think it is very very important we try to snag some sort of first baseman prospect in one of our trades. They don't even have to be great, just pretty much ready to play for a few years.

 

Who is our top first base prospect currently? Do we even have one? Hopefully we stock up on a couple in the draft. You can count me in the minority camp not wanting to give out an outrageous contract to either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Oh, other than that. I would be perfectly content to be the Indians for a few seasons. We have a lot of arm prospects. This year and next year is a great time to start seeing what they can do for us.

[jersey cubs fan]

Cantu does appear to be one of the only options available to slot in at first in the off season. I think it is very very important we try to snag some sort of first baseman prospect in one of our trades. They don't even have to be great, just pretty much ready to play for a few years.

 

Who is our top first base prospect currently? Do we even have one? Hopefully we stock up on a couple in the draft. You can count me in the minority camp not wanting to give out an outrageous contract to either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Oh, other than that. I would be perfectly content to be the Indians for a few seasons. We have a lot of arm prospects. This year and next year is a great time to start seeing what they can do for us.

 

I think it would be a terrible waste to force a 1B prospect into the trade simply because he might be able to play right away.

[mookie]

Cantu does appear to be one of the only options available to slot in at first in the off season. I think it is very very important we try to snag some sort of first baseman prospect in one of our trades. They don't even have to be great, just pretty much ready to play for a few years.

 

Who is our top first base prospect currently? Do we even have one? Hopefully we stock up on a couple in the draft. You can count me in the minority camp not wanting to give out an outrageous contract to either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Oh, other than that. I would be perfectly content to be the Indians for a few seasons. We have a lot of arm prospects. This year and next year is a great time to start seeing what they can do for us.

 

I think it would be a terrible waste to force a 1B prospect into the trade simply because he might be able to play right away.

 

I didn't say anything about forcing, only trying.

[jersey cubs fan]

Cantu does appear to be one of the only options available to slot in at first in the off season. I think it is very very important we try to snag some sort of first baseman prospect in one of our trades. They don't even have to be great, just pretty much ready to play for a few years.

 

Who is our top first base prospect currently? Do we even have one? Hopefully we stock up on a couple in the draft. You can count me in the minority camp not wanting to give out an outrageous contract to either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Oh, other than that. I would be perfectly content to be the Indians for a few seasons. We have a lot of arm prospects. This year and next year is a great time to start seeing what they can do for us.

 

I think it would be a terrible waste to force a 1B prospect into the trade simply because he might be able to play right away.

 

I didn't say anything about forcing, only trying.

 

Well, then I will say I don't think it is important to try and snag some sort of first basemen in a trade with the sole qualification being that he's going to be able to play soon.

 

That's a great way to get ripped off in a trade. If some team had some 2nd rate 1B prospect who served little purpose, they would love to be able to trade him for a team that is desperate for anybody to fill the position. I'd rather trade for a hitter at another position, and then shift somebody over to first. SS and C are the only positions you can be desperate for a body to fill them. Anybody can play first.

[dew1679666265]

Cantu does appear to be one of the only options available to slot in at first in the off season. I think it is very very important we try to snag some sort of first baseman prospect in one of our trades. They don't even have to be great, just pretty much ready to play for a few years.

 

The beauty of Cantu is that he can play first next year and then move to third in 2012 assuming we don't pick up Aramis' option. Then – and I know you're not in favor of this – we don't have first blocked if we go after Gonzalez or Fielder.

 

You can count me in the minority camp not wanting to give out an outrageous contract to either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

I think both are still young enough that giving a huge contract to either would be ok. I wouldn't go more than about 4 years to Prince, but I'd give Gonzalez pretty much any contract he wants. He just turned 28 in May and has the approach/skill set to age well.

 

Oh, other than that. I would be perfectly content to be the Indians for a few seasons. We have a lot of arm prospects. This year and next year is a great time to start seeing what they can do for us.

 

I really don't think we need to rebuild that much. I really think we have the core in place to be successful, we have some quality minor leaguers coming through the system (Brett and Jay Jackson, HJ Lee, Archer, etc) to have some cheap production and we have a high enough budget to make quick fixes through free agency for the spots we can't fill through the farm.

 

We're a team that can and should be able to rebuild quickly and not have multiple years of being bad.

[CubColtPacer]

The problem is we're a lot worse in 2010 than most people expected so we're starting at a lower baseline.

 

That's very true.

 

Emotionally, I don't see how this core could compete. It's hard to see how 2-3 changes could dramatically change this team. But when looking at players position by position it's harder to ignore that could very well be the case.

 

Right now the Cubs are weak going forward in the positions that have the most offense this year by a long shot (1B, RF). They are strong in the positions that are weak offensively (C, SS, likely 3B next year). And due to Lou, they have also been really bad at 2B. (BTW, for the other positions the Cubs should be better than most at LF and CF which neither have been highly offensive positions this year).

 

But that's an advantage to them. They are weak at the strongest offensive position in the game which makes it easy to have a huge upgrade there. And they were so ridiculously weak at 2B that it makes it easy to upgrade there as well. And they don't have to try to find an upgrade for the positions where there is so little available talent.

[jersey cubs fan]

I really don't think we need to rebuild that much. I really think we have the core in place to be successful,

 

It's not a core if you don't have your best players. The Blackhawks have a core, which is their best players. Any additions need to be role players. The Cubs need a freaking stud bat, which is the core of just about any really good team, and something the Cubs do not have. When you have to add a star to be able to contend, you don't have a core in place. You have a lot of role players and some nice pieces, but not a core.

[lumafia]

I really don't think we need to rebuild that much. I really think we have the core in place to be successful,

 

It's not a core if you don't have your best players. The Blackhawks have a core, which is their best players. Any additions need to be role players. The Cubs need a freaking stud bat, which is the core of just about any really good team, and something the Cubs do not have. When you have to add a star to be able to contend, you don't have a core in place. You have a lot of role players and some nice pieces, but not a core.

 

How would one define a stud bat? I'm not trying to be a jerk, but let's get into specifics here. Upon what criteria does a player walk around with a "stud" label?

[SouthSideRyan]

And building off of that, if position is taken into account, Geo has to be close to qualifying as a stud bat at catcher. And Castro has the potential to be a stud bat at SS

[jersey cubs fan]

I really don't think we need to rebuild that much. I really think we have the core in place to be successful,

 

It's not a core if you don't have your best players. The Blackhawks have a core, which is their best players. Any additions need to be role players. The Cubs need a freaking stud bat, which is the core of just about any really good team, and something the Cubs do not have. When you have to add a star to be able to contend, you don't have a core in place. You have a lot of role players and some nice pieces, but not a core.

 

How would one define a stud bat? I'm not trying to be a jerk, but let's get into specifics here. Upon what criteria does a player walk around with a "stud" label?

 

Let me first define what it's not. Ramirez and Lee. Ramirez has been a consistent bat, and pretty close, but I think 2nd tier, especially since he misses several games year. Lee has had a couple seasons where he has been a stud, but most seasons he's just been a 2nd tier 1B (or horrible). Guys like Pujols, Gonzalez, normally David Wright, Morneau, Cabrera, Arod, Teixeira, and in the case of a surprise position like 2B, Utley.

 

Basically, the Cubs need an excellent hitter at 1B if they want to have a realistic chance of contending. They may be better than most at a position or two but they aren't better than everybody by a wide margin. If Castro or Soto gave them 150 games of 900 OPS type production, then that could make up for the lack of 1B production. But I wouldn't count on that. They just aren't good enough at the postions they are good at to withstand not having a big bat at the one position you almost have to have a stud at.

[dew1679666265]

I really don't think we need to rebuild that much. I really think we have the core in place to be successful,

 

It's not a core if you don't have your best players. The Blackhawks have a core, which is their best players. Any additions need to be role players. The Cubs need a freaking stud bat, which is the core of just about any really good team, and something the Cubs do not have. When you have to add a star to be able to contend, you don't have a core in place. You have a lot of role players and some nice pieces, but not a core.

 

I've already said in this thread that we need a major, impact bat. However, even if core isn't the right word, my statement is still correct. We have the pieces in place to have a good to very good team, we just need that impact bat. This team could very easily be 1-2 moves away from competing at a very high level, however the right moves are not available in free agency this season.

 

That's why I think we need to continue to improve the role players on the team this offseason and then focus on getting one of Gonzalez/Fielder next year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've already said in this thread that we need a major, impact bat. However, even if core isn't the right word, my statement is still correct. We have the pieces in place to have a good to very good team, we just need that impact bat.

 

Well, I don't really think that is saying much. Or at the very least, it's glossing over the very difficult task of actually acquiring that impact bat.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm struggling to see the difference between Wright and Ramirez before this season.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm struggling to see the difference between Wright and Ramirez before this season.

 

Wright has been better at a pre-prime age and missed a lot less games. He's got a career 137 OPS+ to Aramis's 112, his best years have been better than Ramirez's best years, he's played 160 games a few times and his worst/injury plagued year was essentially a typical Ramirez season as a Cub.

 

I'm struggling to see how anybody could miss the obvious delineation between the two.

[dew1679666265]

I've already said in this thread that we need a major, impact bat. However, even if core isn't the right word, my statement is still correct. We have the pieces in place to have a good to very good team, we just need that impact bat.

 

Well, I don't really think that is saying much. Or at the very least, it's glossing over the very difficult task of actually acquiring that impact bat.

 

Because the bulk of the team is in place. We don't have to try to fill numerous holes and we don't have a bunch of barely replacement level guys just filling space. There's some legitimate talent on the team and more coming from the minors. Adding an impact bat is not an easy task, but this is a team with the resources to go get one (whether through a trade or free agency).

[Guest]

Who is our top first base prospect currently? Do we even have one? Hopefully we stock up on a couple in the draft. You can count me in the minority camp not wanting to give out an outrageous contract to either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Not really. Russ Canzler or Justin Bour are the best and they aren't anywhere near the Cubs top 30 prospects.

[Guest]

Who is our top first base prospect currently? Do we even have one? Hopefully we stock up on a couple in the draft. You can count me in the minority camp not wanting to give out an outrageous contract to either Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Not really. Russ Canzler or Justin Bour are the best and they aren't anywhere near the Cubs top 30 prospects.

I think Vitters can stay on third, but he's also our top first base prospect.

[UMFan83]

At least we still have 4 more years of Soriano!

[champaignchris]

Basically, going into next year, the Cubs will need a first baseman, second baseman (because, apparently, the team feels a Baker/Fontenot platoon isn't worth trying), and probably someone who can step in and play starter quality third base if Ramirez sucks/is injured for a huge chunk of the season for a third season in a row.

 

The outfield is probably set for the beginning of the year due to the contracts. And the four outfielders the Cubs have aren't the reason they're awful this year, anyway.

 

On paper, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, Silva, and Zambrano should be good enough as a starting staff to compete, if they get any offensive and bullpen support at all. I can see the Cubs picking up a second tier/back of the rotation kind of guy for continued Zambrano insurance. Or maybe Hendry (or whomever) can pull off a Bradley/Hundley kind of trade for Z and bring in a useful part with a bad contract.

 

Marmol, Marshall, and Cashner are the start of a good bullpen. There should be enough in-house already to fill in the rest. Hopefully we don't have a third year in a row of the bullpen being completely horrible for two months until the coaching staff figures out who can actually pitch. (Isn't that what Spring Training is for?)

 

So basically, assuming payroll stays roughly the same, you've $30M to sign a starting 1B, starting 2B, spot starter 3B, and 3/4 slot starting pitcher. I don't see the money stretching that far. Barring a blockbuster of a trade that completely restructures the team, they'll probably be a major player for one of the big 1B FAs, sign a couple of "meh" utility infielders, and a "meh" starting pitcher. Not real exciting.