Cubs Top 10 Going into Next Season

[Rob]

What is Castros upside for the next four years?

 

Semi-realistic upside for this year, probably something like .270/.310/.340 with slightly above average defense. But as a 20 year old making his ML debut after skipping most of the high minors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit .230/.270/.280 either. I'm still of the mind that we need to keep him down til the all star break at least.

 

Four years out, I could see him as high as .310/.370/.450 with above average defense.

[Northside Blues]

So in other words he is indistinguishible from Cesar Izturis, Miguel Cairo and Joaquin Arias?

 

Is he really any different than Franklin Font either?

[Guest]

So in other words he is indistinguishible from Cesar Izturis, Miguel Cairo and Joaquin Arias?

 

The main difference is that at the end of your 4 year time frame Castro will still only be 25.

[davell]

So in other words he is indistinguishible from Cesar Izturis, Miguel Cairo and Joaquin Arias?

 

The main difference is that at the end of your 4 year time frame Castro will still only be 25.

 

And not yet even in his prime......While it's hard for me to believe without seeing it, 2 comps we've heard this offseason are Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez. Which is obviously quite distinguishable from Cairo, Izturis, Arias and Font. In other words, he's a bigtime prospect for us at a very key position......

[bubblesdachimp]

Didnt really know where to put this so i will throw it here, but i really think Castro if he ahs a good to solid spring will break camp with the team.. I can really see Lou becoming infatuated with this kid... I am really excited

[Clem Fandango]

I can really see Lou becoming infatuated with this kid... I am really excited

 

I can really see him becoming infuriated too if he struggles against better pitching.

 

I like Castro as much as the next guy and would love to see him to well enough to break camp with the team, but he really needs to start in AA and work his way up. If they're gonna move him swiftly he needs at least a month at both AA and AAA. I'd hate to see him rushed, struggle, and then get put in Lou's doghouse. I would think that with his high profile though that they would know better than to just let him sit around and collect dust on the bench if that happens and instead send him back down to the minors

[Northside Blues]

That wasn't exactly my point. My point is what makes Starlin Castro at age 19 any different than Izturis, Cairo or Arias at age 19. This are the only comps of his who have done anything.

[Outshined_One]

That wasn't exactly my point. My point is what makes Starlin Castro at age 19 any different than Izturis, Cairo or Arias at age 19. This are the only comps of his who have done anything.

 

Considering we've already mentioned and heard of comps for Castro ranging from Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez on the high end and some of those names on the low end, I think that's a rather unfair statement. Furthermore, Castro is much more of a prospect than any of those three ever were (Check BA's Top 100 Lists from the past), especially considering he's got a better combination of plate discipline/defense/power potential than those three had at the age of 19.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think Castro has plenty of issues and has been horrifically overhyped since the Arizona Fall League began. However, I don't think it's fair to say that he'll be a boom or a bust just because he profiles similarly to certain SS prospects who came before him.

[davell]

I honestly don't remember what type of prospect Cairo was ever considered to be. And Arias was never really on my radar either. Izturis was considered a solid leadoff type/great glove SS though. I looked the 3 of them up on thebaseballcube and I guess that what's making Castro different from them is what scouts are saying about him(because I don't know what they were saying about them at this point in their careers). But with Castro, most see alot of projection, with his body filling out from the 150-160 pound range he's at now and the fact that the ball jumps off his bat differently than with most kids. He's also shown a pretty decent bat at AA at 19, which they had yet to do at that point.

 

Cairo and Arias are both as tall or taller than Castro, so I don't know if projection is an actual reason for why he's looked at differently than they were or not. But Izturis was/is a little guy and I would think that he was more of a "what you're seeing is what you're going to get" type guy......

 

That said, one of the reasons Castro jumped SO HIGH this year was his showing in the AFL, which had quite a few bigtime pitching prospects and unless I'm mistaken, is considered to be AA quality, if not slightly better than that......

[Northside Blues]

At the same level and age Hanley Ramirez's plate discipline, power and production are nowhere near comparable. They're almost the exact opposite. At the same level and just a year older Derek Jeter's plate discpline was completely advanced. He walked nearly twice as often as Castro did with a smaller strikeout rate. That is hardly comparable.

 

Izturis, Cairo and Arias on the other hand are near perfect matches in discipline, power and production. Even if we accept that Castro has Ramirez's power it won't play as well because Castro appears to be an early count hitter not a late count hitter. This causes a solid BABIP but poor IsoP.

 

There's just too much dreaming on Castro where the dream is only maybe a 1 in 20 chance to rank him in the top 25. A top 25 guy needs to be much more of a sure thing.

[Outshined_One]

At the same level and age Hanley Ramirez's plate discipline, power and production are nowhere near comparable. They're almost the exact opposite. At the same level and just a year older Derek Jeter's plate discpline was completely advanced. He walked nearly twice as often as Castro did with a smaller strikeout rate. That is hardly comparable.

 

Izturis, Cairo and Arias on the other hand are near perfect matches in discipline, power and production. Even if we accept that Castro has Ramirez's power it won't play as well because Castro appears to be an early count hitter not a late count hitter. This causes a solid BABIP but poor IsoP.

 

There's just too much dreaming on Castro where the dream is only maybe a 1 in 20 chance to rank him in the top 25. A top 25 guy needs to be much more of a sure thing.

 

Go back through those BA Top 100 lists that I posted above and look back at all of their Top 25s. How many of them were, at the time, "sure things"? Of those guys who were sure things, how many of them actually lived up to their potential?

[toonsterwu]

At the same level and age Hanley Ramirez's plate discipline, power and production are nowhere near comparable.

 

Before making any other comments, let me first state real clearly - I do not have any expectations that Starlin Castro will turn into Hanley Ramirez. I try to never make that sort of comparison - it's an unfair burden on a youngster. Hanley wasn't expected to be Hanley.

 

That said,

 

Starlin Castro just finished his age 19 season. At age 19, Hanley Ramirez was a level behind in SAL and posted a .275/.327/.403 line. Starlin went .302/.340/.391 in A+, followed by .288/.347/.396. I would say power and production are, at the very least, comparable, if not a slight edge for Starlin since he was at a higher level. Hanley struck out 17.3% of the time, while walking 7.6% of the time. In Daytona, Starlin walked 4.9% and struck out 11.5%. In limited AB's at AA, he walked 8.2% and struck out 10.8% of the time. Combined, he walked 6.2% on the year, while striking out 11.3% of the time. Again, I'd argue that it's fairly comparable in the age department.

 

Hanley loosely broke out in AA in 2004 at age 20 in 129 AB's ... before crashing in 2005 in AA with the Red Sox souring on him somewhat and pondering a position change (IIRC). You can't really use Hanley's AA "breakout" without acknowledging that he tumbled hard in 2005 in AA. Realistically, he broke out when he got to the bigs. Sure, at the end of the day, this was a supremely talented kid that maybe needed the challenge to stay sharp, but if you want to note a comparison on age and level, as of now, there isn't a significant difference.

 

Let's take a peek at a free scouting report ...

 

From 2003

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/03top10s/redsox.html

 

It's a fairly similar report to what we see out there on Starlin Castro right now.

 

____________________________

 

Do I expect Starlin to develop into Hanley? Of course not. I can dream, but I'm not expecting it. But at the end of the day, if you buy his tools, it's easy to see why some folks are lauding his potential. Is he overhyped? Without a doubt. Overhyped is not a bad thing, though. It simply means he hasn't produced to the expectations yet ... but he's 19 turning 20 in a month.

 

Maybe he ends up busting. Is it fair to say that, the top 15 status that guys like Jim Callis and Keith Law, two more knowledgeable guys than us with far better resources than we have, a bit overenthusiastic? Probably. Despite their knowledge, I'd say that's going a bit far until he proves it. But he's a dang good prospect who has shown the ability to stay level with the bat, and by most accounts, a good worker and student. There's every reason to believe that he could improve in his walk rate enough. The power's what will either make him an overhyped prospect (if it doesn't develop) or a quality starting MI (if it does come around).

 

A couple other comments -

 

This is, by some, including myself, considered to be an overall down year in the minors. Talent and ability can always be found, but in regards to how people judge prospects, it's a bit lean at the moment. After the top tier of 8 or 9 guys, there's really a gigantic jumble that follows.

[soonercub]

Good post, I liked reviewing the older Hanley scouting report. Obviously Castro has some great tools, but you can't predict how he will develop physically. I noticed in that report Hanley was listed at 6'1" and 170 pounds. On the Marlins site he is now listed at 6'3" and 225 pounds. Castro should get bigger and stronger, but you never know how big and strong that will be. I doubt Hanley would be putting up his recent power numbers if he was 6'1" and 190 pounds.

 

I do like what I have heard of Castro and his work ethic. So I do think he will be a player that gets the most out of his physical tools, but those tools might or might not change from what they are now.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't even allow Hanley's name to come into the discussion when thinking about Castro's future, but I'm not sure why he's being compared to Izturis and other midgets that aren't really anything like Castro.

[Northside Blues]

A 11% and 17% walk rate are hardly comparable. Neither is a 30 point difference in IsoP. There are a ton of guys who had closer walk rates, power and strikeout rates. You are cherry-picking one guy. The fact is that in general guys like Castro have an extraordinary high rate of never becoming more than a utility guy at best. Hanley is far from the best comp, results wise and one of a million guys with similar tools and dreams at the same age. I have not and am not saying he isn't a good prospect or even not our best. I am merely saying as far as "great" prospects go his likely upside is not very high and his chances of developing into a starter is not very high, relatvely speaking. Is he really any different than Lee? Both guys are essentially the same player right now. Guys who show solid contact skills with very little patience and now power. Relatively speakng both guys have pretty much the same likelihood of ever developing power and patience. The difference between Lee and Castro is insignificant until one shows power or patience. Castro hitting the ball 200 feet and praying he finds holes for singles at any level of competition is not a subsitute for his absolute desolate power right now. Scouts are hardly in unison that he will develop it.

 

Cairo is 6'1" 210. Arias was listed at 6'1" 165 at the same age. I hardly picked those two guys out at random. PECOTAs top comp for Castro is Izturis and ZiPS top comp for Castro is Arias. Zips also has Erick Aybar and Omar Infante rounding out the top three. If his power and patience develop he can be a Ramirez type player but that is no different than saying if Corey Patterson develops patience he will be become a Carlos Beltran type player five years ago. We all know how that one turned out.

[Guest]

A 11% and 17% walk rate are hardly comparable. Neither is a 30 point difference in IsoP.

 

That didn't stop you when it came to comparing Castro to someone like Izturis or Cairo.

 

Fact of the matter is, with players as young as Castro, subjective evaluation has to matter. Find Izturis or Cairo on a Top 50 MLB prospects list when they were coming through, and then I'll be more apt to buy the comparison. Furthermore, prospects in general fail, so of course there are going to be examples of guys who weren't good, especially in the case of Castro whose potential outstrips his results so far.

[fromthestretch]

Is he really any different than Lee? Both guys are essentially the same player right now. Guys who show solid contact skills with very little patience and now power.

 

Lee has very little patience? Granted, he's only played one season of low-A ball, but he walked 31 times in 304 plate appearances (10.2 % of the time). That's not that bad.

[Outshined_One]

Is he really any different than Lee? Both guys are essentially the same player right now. Guys who show solid contact skills with very little patience and now power.

 

Lee has very little patience? Granted, he's only played one season of low-A ball, but he walked 31 times in 304 plate appearances (10.2 % of the time). That's not that bad.

 

Lee also has less power than Castro.

[toonsterwu]

Good post, I liked reviewing the older Hanley scouting report. Obviously Castro has some great tools, but you can't predict how he will develop physically. I noticed in that report Hanley was listed at 6'1" and 170 pounds. On the Marlins site he is now listed at 6'3" and 225 pounds. Castro should get bigger and stronger, but you never know how big and strong that will be. I doubt Hanley would be putting up his recent power numbers if he was 6'1" and 190 pounds.

 

I do like what I have heard of Castro and his work ethic. So I do think he will be a player that gets the most out of his physical tools, but those tools might or might not change from what they are now.

 

Side note, but most people believe that Castro played around 180ish this year. He also isn't

projected to be able to carry more than, say, 190ish of good weight (that is, weight that won't significantly impact athletic ability). Obviously, frame expectations are an inaccurate science, to say the least.

[Northside Blues]

Is he really any different than Lee? Both guys are essentially the same player right now. Guys who show solid contact skills with very little patience and now power.

 

Lee has very little patience? Granted, he's only played one season of low-A ball, but he walked 31 times in 304 plate appearances (10.2 % of the time). That's not that bad.

 

Lee also has less power than Castro.

Lee's IsoP last year was .090. Castro's IsoP last year was .093. Then in the AFL it was .099.

[Outshined_One]

Is he really any different than Lee? Both guys are essentially the same player right now. Guys who show solid contact skills with very little patience and now power.

 

Lee has very little patience? Granted, he's only played one season of low-A ball, but he walked 31 times in 304 plate appearances (10.2 % of the time). That's not that bad.

 

Lee also has less power than Castro.

Lee's IsoP last year was .090. Castro's IsoP last year was .093. Then in the AFL it was .099.

 

Having watched Lee thanks to Boise putting its home games up on the internet, I feel comfortable in saying Lee's power numbers have been inflated due to his excellent speed. Castro currently is a much safer bet to hit 10-15 HRs a year than Lee is.

[toonsterwu]

Thing with Lee is, while physically, he could probably crank out a few more HR's, his swing is one where power isn't the focus, and he would have to drastically rework his swing for him to generate those couple extra HR's, and unless there's some drastic flaw with his swing (so far, no), very few organizations are going to completely redo the swing and risk a player losing their value.

 

Castro's ability to stay level, turn on pitches, pitch recognition, and how his wrists explode with the bat should lead to some power. The question is how much.

[craig]

Fun discussion. Blues has some very fair points: Castro to date has been a no-walk singles hitter with a lot of errors. Optimism about his future performance is based on projection and scouting: he might get stronger and add some IsoP, he might become more disciplined and add some IsoD, he might improve as much as his level of competition and hit for as high an average in better leagues as he has in low leagues, he might mature defensively and cut way back on his errors, he might get physically a little taller and a lot stronger.

 

all of those are possibilities. But this isn't the first time that a young infield prospect has been in that situation. Some do improve in some/many of those areas; Ramirez and Jeter are extreme examples. Many do not improve enough to become premium players.

 

As the Hanley example shows, it's also obvious that improvement is not always a smooth and steady thing. Guys who go from one place and end up at a much higher place, the time for getting there can vary greatly, and in many cases there are relapses or plateaus along the way.

 

I look at stats a ton. But I do think we can go overboard in ignoring scouting observations. It seems that there are hitting observations regarding Castro that suggest he has: balance, bat quickness, and the ability to hit breaking balls. Sometimes guys whose stats might seem to be comparable or superior are lacking in one or more of those areas. Some of those qualities remain advantageous into the future, and perhaps make it easier to sustain performance against better pitching, or to maintain the ability to hit fast-moving pitches even after you add some muscle or perhaps try to swing a little harder?

[jersey cubs fan]

Fun discussion. Blues has some very fair points: Castro to date has been a no-walk singles hitter with a lot of errors. Optimism about his future performance is based on projection and scouting:

 

Isn't it mostly about the fact that he's done well playing at high levels for his age?

[biittner77]

Fun discussion. Blues has some very fair points: Castro to date has been a no-walk singles hitter with a lot of errors. Optimism about his future performance is based on projection and scouting:

 

Isn't it mostly about the fact that he's done well playing at high levels for his age?

 

That's certainly part of it but but lots of players perform well early but are never able to build on that success. Dopirak for example was seen as a guy that may have trouble adjusting as he climbed the ladder and that turned out to be true. With Castro he has skills that could still be developed.