No Arby's for Harden, Gregg, Johnson

[David]

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2009/12/cubs-wont-offer-arbitration-to-harden-gregg-johnson.html

 

 

The Cubs are not expected to offer salary arbitration to their three free agents today, which means they will not receive compensation for losing pitcher Rich Harden.

 

The story was first reported by David Kaplan on Chicagonow.com.

 

Harden ($7million), reliever Kevin Gregg ($4.2 million) and outfielder Reed Johnson ($3 million) will play elsewhere next season. If they had been offered arbitration, they could have accepted and played next season for whatever an impartial arbitrator decided. The Cubs felt none of them was worth the almost-certain raise that would be coming.

 

 

Looks like it's going to happen, as expected.

[David]

My bad, didn't look in the sticky.

[SouthSideRyan]

Next year, I'm just going to pick somebody who really sucks as my favorite player.

 

Bye Rich.

[jersey cubs fan]

In my MLB 09 game I offered a 4 year deal and he took less money for 3 years in Oakland, so I had already accepted him being gone.

[Guest]

I'll post this here, too, since I want people to know just HOW good Harden is when healthy:

 

* 3.39 Lifetime ERA (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Peavy, Webb, Unit & Smoltz among active starters)

* 9.4 K/9IP (behind only Unit, Wood & Pedro among active starters)

* .633 win % (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Halladay, Hudson, Unit & Cliff Lee among active starters)

* 1.237 WHIP (14th among active starters)

 

This is an example of horrendous decision making and resource allocation by the Cubs front office. Terrible.

[CUBZ99]

I'll post this here, too, since I want people to know just HOW good Harden is when healthy:

 

* 3.39 Lifetime ERA (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Peavy, Webb, Unit & Smoltz among active starters)

* 9.4 K/9IP (behind only Unit, Wood & Pedro among active starters)

* .633 win % (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Halladay, Hudson, Unit & Cliff Lee among active starters)

* 1.237 WHIP (14th among active starters)

 

This is an example of horrendous decision making and resource allocation by the Cubs front office. Terrible.

 

This is assuming the Cubs don't sign him. (which is probably a pretty safe assumption). Also, Bruce seemed to imply or suggest that maybe there is more damage to the right shoulder than the average fan knows about. If the Cubs medical staff is encouraging Hendry not to offer arbitration because they believe his arm will need surgery soon or won't hold up half a season, I would give Hendry a pass.

[CubColtPacer]

I'll post this here, too, since I want people to know just HOW good Harden is when healthy:

 

* 3.39 Lifetime ERA (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Peavy, Webb, Unit & Smoltz among active starters)

* 9.4 K/9IP (behind only Unit, Wood & Pedro among active starters)

* .633 win % (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Halladay, Hudson, Unit & Cliff Lee among active starters)

* 1.237 WHIP (14th among active starters)

 

This is an example of horrendous decision making and resource allocation by the Cubs front office. Terrible.

 

I'll also copy my post here as this is probably the better thread for what may end up being a longer discussion:

 

It has to be considered though that Harden was dominant with a very different arsenal of pitches that he now has. He turned from a 4 pitch pitcher to a 2 pitch pitcher because of the injuries. While the differing actions of the changeup means that he's not quite that limited, it's still hard to say how much that has affected his career. He's far from a lock right now at being one of the best pitchers in baseball even if he's healthy.

[Guest]

I'll post this here, too, since I want people to know just HOW good Harden is when healthy:

 

* 3.39 Lifetime ERA (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Peavy, Webb, Unit & Smoltz among active starters)

* 9.4 K/9IP (behind only Unit, Wood & Pedro among active starters)

* .633 win % (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Halladay, Hudson, Unit & Cliff Lee among active starters)

* 1.237 WHIP (14th among active starters)

 

This is an example of horrendous decision making and resource allocation by the Cubs front office. Terrible.

 

I'll also copy my post here as this is probably the better thread for what may end up being a longer discussion:

 

It has to be considered though that Harden was dominant with a very different arsenal of pitches that he now has. He turned from a 4 pitch pitcher to a 2 pitch pitcher because of the injuries. While the differing actions of the changeup means that he's not quite that limited, it's still hard to say how much that has affected his career. He's far from a lock right now at being one of the best pitchers in baseball even if he's healthy.

I'll reply to both posts here:

 

On health: That's the one caveat I allowed in my article. If the Cubs have knowledge we don't of an impending explosion, then I can understand. But if he's clean enough that he gets a multi-year deal with another team you'll hear me howl quite loudly.

 

On Current State: I understand and appreciate what you're saying. Using career numbers may not accurately reflect the pitcher he is going to be in 2010. But as recently as 2008, he posted a pretty spectacular combined 2.02 ERA. It's possible that he degraded that much during 2009, but I don't think that's the case. And there will be enough teams willing to take that chance that I think offering arbitration was a very, very safe option.

[SouthSideRyan]

To follow up on Tim's response, wasn't Harden a 2 pitch pitcher in '08 with the Cubs? I think last year had a lot more to do with his health than the fact that he was throwing 2 pitches.

[Guest]

It's kind of all beside the point, anyway. Some team is going to give Rich a multi-year offer. The Cubs also could have positioned something with Rich along the lines of, "We're offering arbitration, but if you accept we will be transitioning you to reliever because of the health issues." This would have really forced Harden to think twice about accepting and lowered the risk even further.

 

Plus, as a type B (if I'm remembering the final outcome correctly), he wouldn't have cost the signing team a pick, so I'm sure he would have gotten an offer to start somewhere else he would have preferred.

[cubsfan26]

I use to be in favor of Harden returning. But I kinda learned my lesson this season and realize how much a pitcher like him is a headache to a team. The fact that he's basically a five inning pitcher now because of how many pitches he throws, and the fact that he's never healthy makes me kinda wanna move on from him. I love his talent and I would love for him to ever be healthy and pitch like he's capable for a fullseason. But at this point I doubt he's ever going to do that. Nobody takes into account that when Harden leaves the game so early(around 5th inning) we need to have good relievers to take over for him. Or if he misses a month or needs starts pushed back we need to have a good replacement starter.

 

 

So Harden at 1y 8-9m might not seem like a bad deal, but when you factor in we need to pay for extra relievers and pay for a extra starter for him it all adds up. Of course I would like the Cubs to risk offering him arb. but it's just too risky that he would accept it. If he does then the Cubs would pretty much have no money to add any other players this offseason. So I don't mind this move really, but would have liked the Cubs to have gotten something for him from the Twins if they knew he wasn't going to be brought back. I guess the Twins were probably offering crap though and it wasn't worth just giving him away.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, Harden isn't a 5 inning pitcher, and even if he was having him at 1/9M isn't a risk. (As always the caveat that he's not more hurt than we're aware.) Edited December 1, 2009 by SouthSideRyan

[BigbadB1679666149]

If Harden is only a "B", then what is really the harm of offering him arbitration. Teams aren't going to balk at signing a "B" player since it won't cost them anything in terms of compensation. The Cubs will receive compensation, but why would the signing team care about that?

 

If it's certain that someone is willing to give Harden a 3 or 4 year deal, then the Cubs are really stupid for not offering.

[BigbadB1679666149]

I use to be in favor of Harden returning. But I kinda learned my lesson this season and realize how much a pitcher like him is a headache to a team. The fact that he's basically a five inning pitcher now because of how many pitches he throws, and the fact that he's never healthy makes me kinda wanna move on from him. I love his talent and I would love for him to ever be healthy and pitch like he's capable for a fullseason. But at this point I doubt he's ever going to do that. Nobody takes into account that when Harden leaves the game so early(around 5th inning) we need to have good relievers to take over for him. Or if he misses a month or needs starts pushed back we need to have a good replacement starter.

 

 

So Harden at 1y 8-9m might not seem like a bad deal, but when you factor in we need to pay for extra relievers and pay for a extra starter for him it all adds up. Of course I would like the Cubs to risk offering him arb. but it's just too risky that he would accept it. If he does then the Cubs would pretty much have no money to add any other players this offseason. So I don't mind this move really, but would have liked the Cubs to have gotten something for him from the Twins if they knew he wasn't going to be brought back. I guess the Twins were probably offering crap though and it wasn't worth just giving him away.

 

Let's just pretend that Harden accepted arby and he won his case for a cool 9m. How much would a starter of his caliber realistically be worth? 5m? 6m? 7m? 8m? 9m? More? Who really knows, but if you take back the money you spent on Grabow, you can already knock Harden's contract down from 9m to 5.5m. Would Harden be worth 5.5m? I would think so.

 

This is just another example of how poorly Hendry has been running this team for the last several years. His priorities aren't in the right place and the whole team is suffering for the poor decisions.

 

And I'm not sure how much baseball you've been watching since the early '70's, but a team needs good relievers. Not because Harden might only give you 5 innings, but because you will need them in just about every game. There just aren't many complete games happening anymore.

[CubColtPacer]

To follow up on Tim's response, wasn't Harden a 2 pitch pitcher in '08 with the Cubs? I think last year had a lot more to do with his health than the fact that he was throwing 2 pitches.

 

I believe so. Fangraphs only has the Athletics/Cubs numbers combined for 2008, and Harden threw all 4 pitches over the course of the year but the other two were very limited compared to previous years. But 2008 has all sorts of red flags attached to it. He changed leagues in the middle of the year which made his 2 pitches have more deception than they otherwise would have. He gave up a large percentage of fly balls and yet kept the ball in the ballpark the best he ever had even while moving to a smaller ballpark. He also stranded an abnormally large percentage of runners (84.4%). He also continued his string from 2005/2006 of having a much better BABIP than his LD percentage would suggest.

 

This year the only number that was out of line on his peripherals was his HR rate. And we know that wasn't because of cheap home runs as people were clobbering the ball off of him. All the rest of his numbers returned to normal luck status for most pitchers.

 

Harden still has the potential to be the guy who defies the norms and becomes the dominant pitcher he was in 2005 and 2008. He still has one of the best upsides in the league But there's also a huge downside to him that is irrespective of health. Even when healthy, a 2 pitch Harden might end up walking too many and giving up too many home runs to be a consistently great pitcher. When you add in the fact that he's likely not going to go over 160 innings and is a threat to miss a very large percentage of the season, then his value is just not that high.

 

Would I have offered arbitration? Probably...but that's because I really think some teams will want to take the risk with him. A 10 million dollar Harden is not a great investment for any team that is not desperate for pitching though so I would really hope that he wouldn't accept. The roster issues he's going to cause during the year is going to depress his value and his production when healthy is a huge question mark. He could be a huge steal for some team, but I believe the percentages favor him being overvalued by getting that much guaranteed between the money spent, the fact that you have to give him as much extra rest as possible to help his effectiveness, and the fact that he'll have to skip starts at random times without going on the DL.

[cubsfan26]

Yeah, Harden isn't a 5 inning pitcher

 

In 11 of his 26 starts he threw 5.1 innings or less(averaged around 4 innings in those starts). I know he might average out to be more then a 5 inning pitcher. But when almost have of your starts you throw 5.1 or less there's a issue there that needs to be considered.

 

even if he was having him at 1/9M isn't a risk

 

Well thats your opinion, for me thats a little high for a guy who gives you 140 innings. When you consider that you gotta pay other people to either come in games early alot or have to pay too have a back up starter. Yes you might be able to get those guys on the cheap, but we don't know if they will be any good on the cheap. Thats also more resources we could use to add players in other postions. Instead we need to keep a guy like Marshall or whoever around as insurance and make sure we have good relievers ready to come in the 6th and 7th inning. I guess there is no right or wrong answer I just think he's too much of a risk health wise and even when he's on the field he doesn't give us enough for the price he will now cost.

Edited December 1, 2009 by cubsfan26

[Serge]

The only good reason for this is if like someone else said Harden has a major injury we don't know about, like Ben Sheets last winter. Because if Harden is fine(by his standards) then this is just dumb. He's a good enough pitcher that even about 100 IP out of him would probably be worth the 8-10 million he'd earn in arbitration.

[Guest]

Again, I would have positioned things with Rich such as a move to the bullpen to help sway him not to accept. I don't believe the risk was that high. And even at $10M for one season, that's not an out-of-this-world number at one year for a dominant closer, anyway. It might have even been worth it if he had accepted.

 

But I don't think there was much risk there. He should have gotten a better offer elsewhere given his type-B status. I guess we'll find out what the market value is for him in the coming months.

[A-Cal]

harden said that he wanted to stay in chicago, so it is pretty obvious why he wasn't offered arbitration

 

this isn't a mistake

 

he is the canadian version of dice-k...5 inning headache

[BigbadB1679666149]

Well thats your opinion, for me thats a little high for a guy who gives you 140 innings.

 

It's also a little high to give a crappy back up middle infielder 2.7m and it's a little high to give a middle reliever almost 4m, so why stop there? Those weren't even gambles. Those were guarantees. It's a gamble that Harden would even accept.

 

This is almost a no brainer since they changed how the compensation works for "B" players. If he was an "A", I'd probably agree that it's best to decline to make an offer. But, that he's a "B" makes him very appealing to teams who like the potential that Harden brings, even if its attached to potential injury.

[cubsfan26]

Let's just pretend that Harden accepted arby and he won his case for a cool 9m. How much would a starter of his caliber realistically be worth? 5m? 6m? 7m? 8m? 9m? More? Who really knows, but if you take back the money you spent on Grabow, you can already knock Harden's contract down from 9m to 5.5m. Would Harden be worth 5.5m? I would think so.

 

This is just another example of how poorly Hendry has been running this team for the last several years. His priorities aren't in the right place and the whole team is suffering for the poor decisions.

 

Having Harden around only make Grabow needed more. Because in almost half of Harden starts he's only gonna give you 5 innings or less. Whats the point of having Harden pitching good for a five innings if you bring in a new pitcher in the 6th inning who sucks and gives up the lead.

 

but a team needs good relievers. Not because Harden might only give you 5 innings, but because you will need them in just about every game. There just aren't many complete games happening anymore.

 

I understand that, but guys like Harden causes you too need more good relievers. Because they don't stay in the game long enough and you gotta go to your pen earlier then most. When you have guys pitching 200 innings(and have a bunch of 6-8 inning starts) at least it allows you to just have a few good relievers and rest them at times. When you gotta go to your pen for 4 or 5 innings, you need to have a really deep pen. Not to mention what it does to your pen when Harden needs to miss his starts. I understand Harden is a great talent, but he's not on the mound enough for me to wanna pay him close to 10m.. Especially considering you need to pay more players around him to make up for when he's not on the mound.

 

 

 

But, that he's a "B" makes him very appealing to teams who like the potential that Harden brings,

 

I still will be surprised if Harden gets a 2y deal this offseason. I have a feeling he might get something like 1y at 7-9m with team or vesting option. So there's a decent chance he might have accepted the Cubs offer IMO.

[jersey cubs fan]

Harden was still very good when used properly this year. He's not a 5 inning pitcher either. This teams has lots of arms that can start games, they have very few that can dominate when pitching.

[jersey cubs fan]

[ I understand Harden is a great talent, but he's not on the mound enough for me to wanna pay him close to 10m.. Especially considering you need to pay more players around him to make up for when he's not on the mound.

 

Maybe you don't know this but every team is only allowed 25 players on the roster, no matter who the starting pitcher is. They don't have to pay any extra people just because Harden is here. They are already onthe team and because they inist on a 12 man rotation usually guys just sit around being wasted resources. Given Harden extra rest and he'll give you 6-7+ innings of very good pitching. And it's easy to give a guy extra rest.

[MSG T]

[ I understand Harden is a great talent, but he's not on the mound enough for me to wanna pay him close to 10m.. Especially considering you need to pay more players around him to make up for when he's not on the mound.

 

Maybe you don't know this but every team is only allowed 25 players on the roster, no matter who the starting pitcher is. They don't have to pay any extra people just because Harden is here. They are already onthe team and because they inist on a 12 man rotation usually guys just sit around being wasted resources. Given Harden extra rest and he'll give you 6-7+ innings of very good pitching. And it's easy to give a guy extra rest.

 

 

Especially when you are going into the season with 2-3 guys in the bullpen that are very capable of spot starting 5-10 times per year.

[cubsfan26]

He's not a 5 inning pitcher either

 

I know your a fan of Harden and everything. But if 11 of your 26 starts end up lasting 5.1 innings or less you can't say it's not a problem. Especially when during those 11 starts he really only averages 4 innings. In almost half of his starts we need to use your bullpen for 4 or 5 innings, and if you don't have a strong deep pen it kills you.

 

 

Given Harden extra rest and he'll give you 6-7+ innings of very good pitching. And it's easy to give a guy extra rest.

 

The guy only started 25 and 26 games last year. So you wanna give him more rest, and pay him 9m plus for what 16-20 starts?

 

Maybe you don't know this but every team is only allowed 25 players on the roster, no matter who the starting pitcher is. They don't have to pay any extra people just because Harden is here.

 

Come on seriously? Do you really not understand that you have to get better players in those spots because Harden is here? If you have starters that consistently go 6-8 innings, then you can take some chances on young pitchers or being in some scrub veteran and maybe have 2 or 3 dependable guys at the end. But if you got a guy like Harden around you need a extra dependable reliever or two. Because if those guys suck you need to pitch them alot more. Like it or not but there is a domino effect of having a guy like Harden on the pitching staff. The mix of rest he needs and the lack of long outings hurts your team. So you really gotta factor in what Harden brings to the team, the cost money wise for him, and the cost of having more dependable guys around to fill in for him.

 

 

Especially when you are going into the season with 2-3 guys in the bullpen that are very capable of spot starting 5-10 times per year

 

Which is another domino effect of having a guy like Harden around. Those guys could be valueable trade pieces or could be productive starters in the majors and the money used on Harden could go elsewhere. But with Harden around you need to have a few options ready to step in. Very few teams have 2 or 3 guys sitting in there pen who can start for a reason. Look I know Harden stats and I understand why people want him around. But thinking it's a no brainer that we should want Harden back at 1y at 9m or more, if he wants to come back. Isn't looking at the big picture and doesn't factor in all the downfalls of having a guy like Harden around.

Edited December 1, 2009 by cubsfan26