NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Little Slide Rooter]

Zach Rosscup was looking great when he was healthy. He shouldn get some serious consideration.

 

Also, any idea how long it will take Whitenack to return to action?

[jumbo]

I like your Iowa rotation.

 

Whitenack probably won't be ready at the start of the season and there's a chance McNutt gets bumped to Iowa with a strong AFL (I hope they stick him at Tennessee no matter what). If I had to guess, I'd say McNutt/Rhee/Antigua/Searle and one of Beeler or Jokisch (the other would be at high-A).

 

Thanks for the reply. I figured I was missing somebody, and I hope that next year isn't completely lost for Whitenack. If he heals at a normal rate he should be ready by middle of the year?

[toonsterwu]

I think the a positive case scenario for Whitenack is that he's able to throw around mid-season, perhaps get some work late in the season. If he's showing well enough, I'd guess that he could get an AFL nod to prime him for more work and to get ready for 2013.

[Rob]

My ridiculously early, and pointless, gut feeling is that if Jokisch is the loser of the battle in AA for a spot (based off both of us thinking that it could be Searle/Jokisch/Beeler ... for all we know, Harman could figure into the mix), that he might be sent to the AA pen.

 

AJ Morris as a starter? Hadn't pondered that, as I had worked it into my head that he would head to the pen. That's assuming, of course, that he is still with us when minor league season starts, as he seems like the type of average guy that may be borderline. If he is around, he could be an option as a righty starter in Daytona, as that unit is heavily lefty, the way we have it projected right now. He's going to be in his age 24/25 season, though, so I'm not against shifting him to the pen and perhaps pondering him in AA ... if he's around.

 

I don't have a huge issue with Liria in A+, but I think he's better off in Peoria. I still wonder if I'm under-rating him, or under-hyping him, a tad. 90-93, gets up to 94/95, good slider, decent change, and decent performance this year, and yet, I can't crack him into my top 20, and don't think I'll get him into a top 25.

 

Morris will likely be around. If memory serves, Hendry knew his arm was injured when we traded for him. I know Hendry is gone, but I don't doubt Wilken and Fleita will fight to keep the kid around and see what he's made of.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Young CFs/athletic OFs in the system...there's alot of them:

 

Colvin

Brett Jackson

Matt Szczur

Jae Hoon Ha

Zeke DeVoss

Abner Abreu

Michael Burgess

Pin Chieh Chen

Evan Crawford

Jeffery Baez

Dunston Jr.

Taiwan Easterling

Garrertt Schlect

Darien Martin

[toonsterwu]

Burgess doesn't exactly fit into that group. He is relatively young, but he's not a CF, and he's not that athletic. At least, not the Burgess that I've seen the last few years. Physically, he fits in more with Reggie Golden.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Burgess doesn't exactly fit into that group. He is relatively young, but he's not a CF, and he's not that athletic. At least, not the Burgess that I've seen the last few years. Physically, he fits in more with Reggie Golden.

 

Golden is pretty athletic himself (I must have forgotten his name up there), but I could see your point on Burgess. His problem to me is that it turns out he's not very good, but with two useful skills (power and patience) that give him the outside shot at ending up an OF bench bat type. Apparently he's not bad defensive either, but he's also not good or better.

[BearClaw]

Young CFs/athletic OFs in the system...there's alot of them:

 

Colvin

Brett Jackson

Matt Szczur

Jae Hoon Ha

Zeke DeVoss

Abner Abreu

Michael Burgess

Pin Chieh Chen

Evan Crawford

Jeffery Baez

Dunston Jr.

Taiwan Easterling

Garrertt Schlect

Darien Martin

 

You can add Ben Klafczynski to the athletic OF list, hands down winner of

the groups slam dunk contest!

[Rob]

I can't decide whether to make a new top prospects list or wait until we've seen some from the AFL and Instructs.

[Guancous]

I can't decide whether to make a new top prospects list or wait until we've seen some from the AFL and Instructs.

 

Both!

[toonsterwu]

I think I'm fairly set with my top 10, after going over it awhile. Still working on the rest of it, and reserve the right to change my mind, but I feel like I'm fairly set with

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Trey McNutt

3. Matt Szczur

4. Javier Baez

5. Dae-Eun Rhee

6. Dillon Maples

7. Ben Wells

8. Josh Vitters

9. Marco Hernandez

10. Jae-Hoon Ha

 

The main area I'm still debating are at 3/4. I thought I would like Szczur the more I pondered it, but that's not happening. I don't care about his overall struggles in A+ ... I'm more concerned with the declining walk rate in Peoria, and the low walk rate in Daytona. Still pondering if some upper level guys will eventually jump Hernandez and Golden for me at 9/10, but their ceilings seem higher than most of the guys I'm considering in that range, and Whitenack is going under the knife.

 

Edit: Well, changed my mind already, and swapped Ha in for Golden.

[Rob]

Subject to vast changes as I think on it more, but a rough outline for mine would probably go something like this:

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Trey McNutt

3. Matt Szczur

4. Javier Baez

5. Dillon Maples

6. Dae-Eun Rhee

7. Ben Wells

8. Josh Vitters

9. Marco Hernandez

10. Junior Lake (I just can't help myself)

11. Reggie Golden

12. Robert Whitenack (would be a lot higher if not for the injury. I'm basically slotting him where I expect him to show back up on peoples lists next year when he returns)

13. Jae-Hoon Ha

14. Dan Vogelbach

15. Chris Rusin

 

I absolutely hate slotting Maples that high as I have some issues with his mechanics based on some predraft videos I saw... but his draft status and ceiling probably warrant a high ranking. I never gave up on Rhee quite like most of you, but from 6-15 I really didn't feel there was all that much separation. I'm sure most of you wont have Lake popping up in your top 30, let alone top 10... but I've discussed him plenty. Whitenack is getting the same treatment I gave Rhee, where he's basically going to get 2 free passes at this slot... once next year because he hasn't pitched much if at all, and once the year after that just so long as he stays healthy in his first full season back. Vogelbach could jump way up this list with a nice year, (or even a massive time at Instructs), but for now this is about as high as I feel comfortable putting him. Rusin is my token upper-level guy who I feel can be sneakily productive if given a shot... gotta love that groundball rate.

 

I may work later at expanding this list into a top 30 or 50... or I may do nothing with it at all.

[toonsterwu]

the biggest question I'd ask you is where you put Jeffry Antigua? I have him slotted in the 11-15 range right now.

 

Lake, I have barely outside of the top 20 right now, but I work through it slowly so that is subject to change as I just finished 15.

 

Rusin seems a few notches high. I like him, but Flaherty/Castillo were both guys I had temporarily placed ahead. Beeler's ceiling had me leaning towards putting him ahead of Rusin, and Struck might be an end of the rotation arm, but he's got a bit more ceiling than Rusin as well. I hate putting pen arms top 20, but the more I ponder Beliveau, the more I think his dominant season is going to have me sliding him inside the top 20, and I have him ahead of Rusin.

 

I actually like Rusin a fair amount and have defended him, but I am curious about the placement there and the reason why. Granted, I think 6-25 is fairly close, so it's not like it's a significant surprise to me, but just curious why you have him ahead of certain guys.

[Rob]

the biggest question I'd ask you is where you put Jeffry Antigua? I have him slotted in the 11-15 range right now.

 

Lake, I have barely outside of the top 20 right now, but I work through it slowly so that is subject to change as I just finished 15.

 

Rusin seems a few notches high. I like him, but Flaherty/Castillo were both guys I had temporarily placed ahead. Beeler's ceiling had me leaning towards putting him ahead of Rusin, and Struck might be an end of the rotation arm, but he's got a bit more ceiling than Rusin as well. I hate putting pen arms top 20, but the more I ponder Beliveau, the more I think his dominant season is going to have me sliding him inside the top 20, and I have him ahead of Rusin.

 

I actually like Rusin a fair amount and have defended him, but I am curious about the placement there and the reason why. Granted, I think 6-25 is fairly close, so it's not like it's a significant surprise to me, but just curious why you have him ahead of certain guys.

 

16-25 would probably contain Candelario, Antigua, Castillo, Flaherty, Beliveau, Malave, Beeler, Dunston Jr., Kurcz, and Amaya in no particular order... Struck might sneak in there for me, as might Acosta or DeVoss.

 

As to Rusin... I actually just like him a lot. Crazy groundball rate and doesn't walk many... he just keeps pounding the ball down in the zone with enough movement to get guys on top of it. I have a hypothesis that guys with that general profile are going to have an easier time adjusting to a higher level. The upside is limited, but I honestly believe we could slot him in at the back end of our rotation today and he'd be a good #4. Contrast that with a guy like Antigua, who has a higher ceiling, but is more likely (in my mind at least) to experience significant struggles until developing some level of consistency, if he ever does... I dunno, as often as I prefer upside, for whatever reason I just like Rusin there.

[toonsterwu]

fair enough. The way I look at Antigua vs. Rusin is that Antigua's ceiling is just a notch better. I wish Antigua could generate more groundballs, but considering age and ceiling, that's why I lean that way.

 

As a total side note, working through our system, it still surprises me sometimes how young these guys are. For some reason, I thought Ha was already 21, but he's only turning 21 later this year. McNutt's only 22. Wells is younger than Maples. Feels like Antigua's name has been there for awhile, but he's only 21 right now as well.

[Rob]

fair enough. The way I look at Antigua vs. Rusin is that Antigua's ceiling is just a notch better. I wish Antigua could generate more groundballs, but considering age and ceiling, that's why I lean that way.

 

As a total side note, working through our system, it still surprises me sometimes how young these guys are. For some reason, I thought Ha was already 21, but he's only turning 21 later this year. McNutt's only 22. Wells is younger than Maples. Feels like Antigua's name has been there for awhile, but he's only 21 right now as well.

 

I'll be real honest, I had it stuck in my head that Antigua was 23 for whatever reason. I don't see it changing my opinion significantly, but I'll sleep on it.

[toonsterwu]

Ha, I don't expect it to change your opinion, or at least, that wasn't my intent. I know Antigua was 21, but it still seemed strange to see it because of how long his name has been tossed around now (at least a good 3 years).

[Rob]

Ha, I don't expect it to change your opinion, or at least, that wasn't my intent. I know Antigua was 21, but it still seemed strange to see it because of how long his name has been tossed around now (at least a good 3 years).

 

Nah, it's good that you've drawn my attention to it. I've been avoiding looking at players birth dates lately because it makes me feel old... (I turn 27 in about an hour, so I'll be officially too old to be a real prospect even if I had picked up a glove in the last 5 years), but I really do need to refresh my memory on most of those guys.

[toonsterwu]

got you beat by a few years man. These days, I can legitimately call these athletes kids ... and it'd be justified.

 

Happy Birthday man.

[toonsterwu]

I feel like I, at times, give draft picks benefit of the doubt that for some reason, I might not give to some young guys in the system already. I'm specifically thinking of Marco Hernandez here and how he compares to say, Francisco Lindor. Lindor is one year younger, but then again, he's 1 year behind Hernandez as of now. I just don't see an exceptional difference between the two. Initially, I had Lindor, in my mind, a notch ahead, but the more I think about it, the more I think the two should be fairly close. Curious what people think.

[toonsterwu]

The more I ponder things ... the more I wonder if I am being unfair to Marco and Jeimer. For example, what exactly is the justification for having Javier Baez significantly higher than Candelario? I mean, most of us have Baez top 5, if not top 3, while Candelario is borderline top 10 for one guy (just skimmed through the pages). I mean, sure, Baez is a more known prospect, due to coming up in America, but the scouting reports we have heard on Candelario, plus BA lauding him as one of the top guys in DSL, is something to keep in mind.

 

I started pondering Marco Hernandez vs. Francisco Lindor, and the more I thought about it, the more I kept wondering, why isn't Marco on the same level as Lindor, who many have on the same level as Baez, if not higher? The scouting reports are arguably equal (if not, a slight edge for Marco).

 

I'm curious how people are thinking about it right now.

[Rob]

The more I ponder things ... the more I wonder if I am being unfair to Marco and Jeimer. For example, what exactly is the justification for having Javier Baez significantly higher than Candelario? I mean, most of us have Baez top 5, if not top 3, while Candelario is borderline top 10 for one guy (just skimmed through the pages). I mean, sure, Baez is a more known prospect, due to coming up in America, but the scouting reports we have heard on Candelario, plus BA lauding him as one of the top guys in DSL, is something to keep in mind.

 

I started pondering Marco Hernandez vs. Francisco Lindor, and the more I thought about it, the more I kept wondering, why isn't Marco on the same level as Lindor, who many have on the same level as Baez, if not higher? The scouting reports are arguably equal (if not, a slight edge for Marco).

 

I'm curious how people are thinking about it right now.

 

I'm having a hard time putting my justification into words... which I guess is a sign maybe I should reconsider it.

 

Lindor has been a good prospect for a while, with a lot of eyes from every system focusing on him. I kinda trust that there's more of a consensus as to his tools and ceiling as opposed to a guy like Hernandez, who probably hasn't had quite the same degree of focus from other organizations.

[toonsterwu]

Well, I would argue that Marco being in pro ball this year meant that there were a lot of eyeballs on him, and thus, the reports on him probably have as much validity as Lindor's. Even if we simply take the writeup from the BA AZL top 20 list, we're talking about a potential plus shortstop (albeit with some accuracy concerns, but a lot of young shortstops in the low levels have accuracy issues) with range, instincts, and arm, with what they noted as plus speed, with good bat speed, hit tool, and some power projection. I believe both guys have had 15 HR power potential attached to them. If you take the MiLB scouting report on Lindor from pre-draft ... it's almost the exact same thing, except it notes that Lindor has solid speed.

 

This isn't a knock on Lindor. I'm just wondering if draft pick bias is at play here, in some fashion. I guess there are small arguments here and there - I mean, someone suggested that Lindor has elite bat speed, which I'm not certain of based on the clips I've seen, but okay. Physically, Marco has a bit more room for projection.

 

For the most part, though, it's similar.

 

______

 

So I took this discussion over to Sickels and was chatting with someone about it. He said something that made me pause for a moment. I'm too lazy to cut and paste, but what have we heard about Hernandez?

 

Average to plus hit tool (I believe, in different words, that this has been noted in several places) - so, that's a 50-60.

Average power projection (I believe someone said 15 HR power potential once, but I can't find it right now) - another 50.

Plus arm (BA's AZL write-up) - so ... 60?

Plus speed (BA's AZL write-up) - so ... 60?

 

I've sort of extrapolated potential plus defense from the comments about Hernandez (good range, plus arm, plus speed, accuracy issues) - so ... 60?

 

Good approach and solid strike zone judgment (as of now). Haven't heard anything to suggest physical maturation would severely dent these tools in his prime.

 

When he laid it out like that, with rough scouting grades, it made me pause for a moment. That's a potentially damn good shortstop prospect, if these reports are right and he polishes up his game, while continuing to develop. That's ... potentially better than Hak-ju Lee, better than Starlin Castro (due to defense).

__________

 

In saying that, I'm usually wary of prep and low level scouting reports, particularly since so much can physically change, so I'm not holding my breath and expecting the next great shortstop. But it has me thinking more and more that, if we're going to give players like Baez/Lindor the benefit of the doubt and judge them on their potential per the scouting reports out there on them, Marco probably deserves to be ranked as high, if not higher. That's a damn high ceiling.

 

__________

 

Hmm ... am I thinking about a different player as it pertains to power projection? Was trying to find reports on Marco's power projection, but can't find much right now to suggest average power potential. Seems to suggest more a tick below average as his potential.

[Guest]

I've been putting my thoughts together this weekend and came to the conclusion that I'd like to start my list at #3. I just don't like any of the prospects at this point as #1 in the list. However, I think that I'll be thrilled with the top of the list this time next year.

 

Here are my top guys and the questions I have with them. I still have no idea how I'm going to order things in the end.

 

BJackson - I know I make a bigger deal about contact than most here, but I am quite worried about him putting up 2011 Soto seasons unless he hits for more power than I'm expecting.

 

Szczur - will the power blossom as expected? Will his walk rate rebound from the dip it took at Daytona?

 

Vitters - Can he stay at third? Will he ever beat a 5% walk rate on a regular basis?

 

McNutt - How much was injuries and how much was him being overrated?

 

Rhee - It was a great run at the end of the season, but pretty meh overall. He is far enough away from the surgery that he should be showing more (and more consistently) by now.

 

Baez - Hasn't really proven anything yet.

 

Wells - Wasn't exceptional at Boise this year. Will he develop a real strikeout pitch?

[BearClaw]

Couldn't even begin to put a list together.

 

The 2011 college guys need a full wood bat season, but some of them impressed me with vast improvement(getting used to) the weight distribution on a regular basis later in the summer.

 

Same can be said about the high school guys who signed late.

 

Also, huge difference in pitching in AZL, then Boise, and then the MWL Peoria, a pitchers league.

 

Funny, never hear much positive stuff on the guys who actually hit bombs and EBH. Always hear about lack of walks and poor OBP?

 

As much overrating of walks and lack of plate discipline read in posts, much underrating of power.

 

A solid prospect will field his position adequately, possess a strong throwing arm for his position, enough speed to not clog the bases, athletic enough to handle the grind, and hit according to positional profile.

 

A fast, smart runner to leadoff, a good contact guy 2nd, then 3-4-5 is OK to favor some power and average over walks/OBP, the rest follow suit to produce 6-7-8, and a 2nd leadoff type/defensive ace in the 9 hole.

 

Now, every Cub prospect has something to offer along these hitting lines. Rarely does any player have it all.

 

A good read on who is advancing/developing will be midseason 2012 and where they fit in the organization.

 

The 2011 college guys will be interesting to follow because by now, the metal bat conversion is completed. How will Hoilman maintain the power while becoming a better hitter? Will Ben Klafczynski, who is already MLB defensive and fundamentally ready keep advancing as a hitter after hitting .325 in August? Will DeVoss keep getting better with his defense given his speed, contact, and baserunning disruption abilities? Will Taiwan with no more football learn the OF enough to be a true CF?

 

What will the Cubs do with Rohan and R. Jones who had great offensive seasons?