Zambrano as Trade Bait?

[SouthSideRyan]

There's a huge difference in payrolls between the Cubs and Yankees, but it's not even close to twice as much. Stop saying that.

[jersey cubs fan]

People are really overreacting to a mediocre season.

 

And why does everyone still think Fukudome is bad?

 

I don't know why people don't think that 2008 wasn't a fluke season where everything went right for the Cubs.

 

This is a good team that's built to be mediocre unless everything goes according to plan. It's not a great team.

 

Also, to backtobanks the Yankees have twice the payroll of the Cubs and are built to weather injuries, as we've seen. Quit being ridiculous.

 

Everything going right for the Cubs being Edmonds, Fontenot and Dempster?

 

Soto's rookie year, Theriot's career year. Wood's out of nowhere resurgence. DeRosa's career year.

 

And no competition. Not a great player on the team but still put together a great offense. Things all fell into place last year. Usually they don't.

[SouthSideRyan]

People are really overreacting to a mediocre season.

 

And why does everyone still think Fukudome is bad?

 

I don't know why people don't think that 2008 wasn't a fluke season where everything went right for the Cubs.

 

This is a good team that's built to be mediocre unless everything goes according to plan. It's not a great team.

 

Also, to backtobanks the Yankees have twice the payroll of the Cubs and are built to weather injuries, as we've seen. Quit being ridiculous.

 

Everything going right for the Cubs being Edmonds, Fontenot and Dempster?

 

Soto's rookie year, Theriot's career year. Wood's out of nowhere resurgence. DeRosa's career year.

 

And no competition. Not a great player on the team but still put together a great offense. Things all fell into place last year. Usually they don't.

 

Soto's out of nowhere talent happened in '07. So did Wood's out of nowhere health.

 

DeRosa and Theriot's years were better than expected, but they weren't out of this world. They're pretty easily cancelled out by Lee's subpar year and Fukudome's 5 months of absolute suck.

 

Zambrano had his worst full season in the majors(by ERA+) Bob Howry fell off a cliff. Eyre fell off 2 cliffs.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I think trading Zambrano would lead to disaster next season, really this year the Cubs have been hurt by the loss of Ramirez, having Kevin Gregg on the roster, Mike Fontenot sucking, and Zambrano being hurt. I do not think a major message needs to be sent by trading Zambrano, nor do I think the Cubs would get the proper value in return. Keep Z, come back next year with minor tweaks and upgrades and hope that some players on the team come back to their season averages and others stay healthy(er). This team cannot compete with the Cardinals pitching if they trade Z, if they trade Z the Cubs may as well go on a fire sale and trade Ramirez, try to trade Lee, Fukudome, Bradley and build from there.

 

Do not trade a key piece of this team if you expect to compete next season.

[jersey cubs fan]

Soto's out of nowhere talent happened in '07. So did Wood's out of nowhere health.

 

DeRosa and Theriot's years were better than expected, but they weren't out of this world. They're pretty easily cancelled out by Lee's subpar year and Fukudome's 5 months of absolute suck.

 

Zambrano had his worst full season in the majors(by ERA+) Bob Howry fell off a cliff. Eyre fell off 2 cliffs.

 

Soto's out of nowhere talent in 2007 didn't guarantee a fantastic rookie season. And Lee's season was pretty much par for the course for most of his career. It was almost exactly what he did in his first year as a Cub at 28.

 

The Cubs won 97 games last year. They weren't a 97 win team. Led the league in runs scored without a single elite bat. They led the league in walks taken despite being a team that previously never really walked much, and they've since moved right back to the middle of the pack there. There most disappointing offensive player still had a more than acceptable .360 OBP. They probably should have been more like a 90-92 win team. This year they maybe should have been a 88-90 win team and they are on pace to win 84. 2008 was special but it's not something anybody can reasonably expect to happen again unless they significantly upgrade the talent.

[jersey cubs fan]

And why does everyone still think Fukudome is bad?

 

While he's clearly not bad, I don't think he's as good as some people might think. He's only OPS+ing 107, and it would probably be a bit lower if Lou didn't protect him against lefties as much as he has. He's a nice player, not hurting the team at all. But his career as a Cub in total has to be described as a disappointment so far as he hasn't completely erased the negatives. Making $23.5m over the next two years I think there's still legitimate reasons to question if he'll live up to it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Soto's out of nowhere talent happened in '07. So did Wood's out of nowhere health.

 

DeRosa and Theriot's years were better than expected, but they weren't out of this world. They're pretty easily cancelled out by Lee's subpar year and Fukudome's 5 months of absolute suck.

 

Zambrano had his worst full season in the majors(by ERA+) Bob Howry fell off a cliff. Eyre fell off 2 cliffs.

 

Soto's out of nowhere talent in 2007 didn't guarantee a fantastic rookie season. And Lee's season was pretty much par for the course for most of his career. It was almost exactly what he did in his first year as a Cub at 28.

 

The Cubs won 97 games last year. They weren't a 97 win team. Led the league in runs scored without a single elite bat. They led the league in walks taken despite being a team that previously never really walked much, and they've since moved right back to the middle of the pack there. There most disappointing offensive player still had a more than acceptable .360 OBP. They probably should have been more like a 90-92 win team. This year they maybe should have been a 88-90 win team and they are on pace to win 84. 2008 was special but it's not something anybody can reasonably expect to happen again unless they significantly upgrade the talent.

 

It didn't guarantee a fantastic rookie season, but it's not like there wasn't a reason to believe that Soto would be damn good. Lee's season was about 50 points of OPS lower than his career # heading into '08. Career #s that included 800 PAs of sub-replacement level offense when he shoulda been in the minors.

 

In any given year there's maybe 1 true talent 97 win team. To be a 97 win team, you have to have some luck. I just don't think there were these astronomical # of events that everyone else wants to pretend happened that paved the way. They weren't lucky in the sense that they outperformed pythag(-1) If the Cubs should've been a 90-92 win team in '08, then no other team in the NL should have been a 90 win team. To call it a fluke isn't close to being true.

 

It wasn't a bunch of blind kool aid swilling Cub fans that thought this team would take the division this year. From the most sophisticated of projection systems to the brain-deadest analyst. It's horribly annoying when every spaz goes on about the Cardinals being lucky and flukish, and it's just as annoying to say it about the Cubs.

[jersey cubs fan]

It didn't guarantee a fantastic rookie season, but it's not like there wasn't a reason to believe that Soto would be damn good. Lee's season was about 50 points of OPS lower than his career # heading into '08. Career #s that included 800 PAs of sub-replacement level offense when he shoulda been in the minors.

 

In any given year there's maybe 1 true talent 97 win team. To be a 97 win team, you have to have some luck. I just don't think there were these astronomical # of events that everyone else wants to pretend happened that paved the way. They weren't lucky in the sense that they outperformed pythag(-1) If the Cubs should've been a 90-92 win team in '08, then no other team in the NL should have been a 90 win team. To call it a fluke isn't close to being true.

 

It wasn't a bunch of blind kool aid swilling Cub fans that thought this team would take the division this year. From the most sophisticated of projection systems to the brain-deadest analyst. It's horribly annoying when every spaz goes on about the Cardinals being lucky and flukish, and it's just as annoying to say it about the Cubs.

 

I'm not saying they had a bunch of lucky things happen. In fact, if anything it's the lack of bad luck. They didn't have anything really go all that wrong, but most teams have to withstand some bad things. LA lost Manny freaking Ramirez for 50 games this year, have gotten very little out of most of their infield, and they are still going to win 90. Philly is getting nothing from a 30yo former MVP, have dealt with a setback from their best pitcher and their closer has been worse than Kevin Gregg but they will still win 90.

 

And despite the record, Philly was clearly better than the Cubs last year. They beat them in the season series (like they do every year) and dominated them more than the record showed (4-3 but outscored by 9 and the Cubs won one game with the luck of a foul ball HR called fair).

[SouthSideRyan]

Despite being 5 games worse both in real record and pythag, while playing in a worse division you know that Philly had a better team based on the 7 games between the 2?

[Guest]

 

I'm not saying they had a bunch of lucky things happen. In fact, if anything it's the lack of bad luck.

 

That's exactly correct. They didn't get lucky in the sense that they had a lot guys that played out of reasonable expectations (Jim Edmonds excluded). They just stayed healthy and most everyone played up to expectations. How often does that happen in any given year for any team? But that is exactly how Hendry plays it every year and it seems to me to be the thinking of many people in this thread.

 

I like TT's post about incremental changes and I think that's the only way things will get better. It looks like the farm may be starting to produce some position prospects, so maybe things will get better soon. If not the Cubs are going to be worse next year than they are this year.

 

But back to what to do this off-season with Z. If the Cubs can get great value for Z, make a trade. My thinking is that they can't due mostly to his NTC and backloaded contract.

Edited September 14, 2009 by CubinNY

[SouthSideRyan]

And I'd say the Cubs losing their 2nd best starter(heading into the season) last year was a bit of "bad luck"

[SouthSideRyan]

Guys playing up to(not exceeding) expectations is good luck now?

[Guest]

Guys playing up to(not exceeding) expectations is good luck now?

No.

[jersey cubs fan]

Despite being 5 games worse both in real record and pythag, while playing in a worse division you know that Philly had a better team based on the 7 games between the 2?

 

Any sane person knows that. There's a reason why nobody wanted to face Philly in the first round.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah I realized after the fact that wasn't what I meant to say but [expletive] it.

 

You don't think it's a zero sum game where some teams have a lot of guys underperform expectations(for whatever reason) while others have a lot of guys outperform expectations? That was my point, the Cubs as a whole outperformed expectations slightly, but not to any sort of level where I'd say "everything went right" for them.

 

As I said,

 

Zambrano having his worst full season is not everything going right.

 

Lee having his worst full season in ages is not everything going right.

 

Fukudome disappearing for 5 months is not everything going right.

 

Soriano missing 50 games is not everything going right.

 

Bob Howry throwing batting practice is not everything going right.

 

Scott Eyre walking everyone is not everything going right.

[Atta Boy]

Anyone saying that rebuilding is even an option before winning a WS must not have ever met any elderly Cubs fans. How many sixty/seventy/eighty year olds do you see sitting in their seats at the games who have been waiting for centuries to see a WS title? Three or four years of rebuilding this team (whether it could be done correctly or not with the contracts already in place) simply might be too little to late for some people.

[Backtobanks]

Anyone saying that rebuilding is even an option before winning a WS must not have ever met any elderly Cubs fans. How many sixty/seventy/eighty year olds do you see sitting in their seats at the games who have been waiting for centuries to see a WS title? Three or four years of rebuilding this team (whether it could be done correctly or not with the contracts already in place) simply might be too little to late for some people.

 

I'm 62 and I'm in no mood for rebuilding. The other thing to remember is that rebuilding doesn't guarantee a championship team in 3-4 (or more) years. I'm frustrated, but it's a lot more enjoyable to watch an 85-90 win team than to watch some of the teams I suffered with through the 50's and 60's. The best thing about those teams was you could get tickets without scalpers and virtual waiting rooms.

[Backtobanks]

 

I'm not saying they had a bunch of lucky things happen. In fact, if anything it's the lack of bad luck.

 

That's exactly correct. They didn't get lucky in the sense that they had a lot guys that played out of reasonable expectations (Jim Edmonds excluded). They just stayed healthy and most everyone played up to expectations. How often does that happen in any given year for any team? But that is exactly how Hendry plays it every year and it seems to me to be the thinking of many people in this thread.

 

I like TT's post about incremental changes and I think that's the only way things will get better. It looks like the farm may be starting to produce some position prospects, so maybe things will get better soon. If not the Cubs are going to be worse next year than they are this year.

 

But back to what to do this off-season with Z. If the Cubs can get great value for Z, make a trade. My thinking is that they can't due mostly to his NTC and backloaded contract.

 

 

Every team has to deal with injuries, but when the injuries become excessive like the Cubs and Mets, the results show up in the standings. As I've stated before, healthy players next year will lead to a contending team. 4-6 week stints on the DL for Pujols and Carpenter/Wainwright would make the Cards look mediocre too. As for playing up to expectations, players like DLee, Ramirez, Bradley, Lilly, Harden, Zambrano, and Soriano (when healthy) have a pretty good track record to count on and expecting "typical" years out of them shouldn't be considered a "fluke".

[SouthSideRyan]

Despite being 5 games worse both in real record and pythag, while playing in a worse division you know that Philly had a better team based on the 7 games between the 2?

 

Any sane person knows that. There's a reason why nobody wanted to face Philly in the first round.

 

Wait, I missed this earlier. This is nuts. Their #2 starter was Brett Myers

[illiniguy]

Shouldn't some of the Cardinals players be expected to return to normal levels of production next year as well? They have a lot of guys having their best years ever. Including Pujols.

[Banedon]

Sounds like Rosenthal took a Phil Rogers or Steve Rosenbloom idea and presented it as something that had more merit than it really does. I don't think the Cubs are parting with Z.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Shouldn't some of the Cardinals players be expected to return to normal levels of production next year as well? They have a lot of guys having their best years ever. Including Pujols.

 

Pixie dust dont slump, dude.

[Backtobanks]

Sounds like Rosenthal took a Phil Rogers or Steve Rosenbloom idea and presented it as something that had more merit than it really does. I don't think the Cubs are parting with Z.

 

I can't see Zambrano going anywhere unless we get back a decent starting pitcher plus a starting SS/2B. Zambrano, with all of his antics and underachieving, is still a major cog in the rotation.

[dew1679666265]

Fukudome is a definite improvement from last year, but hes still not quite where we expected him. Hes a great defender, although hes a bit better in right than center. Hes getting their, and he seems to be trying to eliminate the Fuk-U-Copter from his game. Id definitely take similar numbers throughout the duration of his contract, but we were expecting something along the lines of .285/.375/.480 with 20 some HR when we got him.

 

I remember those types of expectations, but they were pretty high end. And he's done a pretty good job of coming close to those high end expectations this year.

 

.261/.374/.429/.802 are his numbers this year.

 

Those numbers have him as the 6th best center fielder in baseball this year and he has the second best OBP of all ML center fielders. Only two CFs are OPSing better than the .855 you wanted from Kosuke – Torii Hunter and Matt Kemp. Everyone else is at least 30 points below that number.

[dew1679666265]

And Lee's season was pretty much par for the course for most of his career. It was almost exactly what he did in his first year as a Cub at 28.

 

Lee's 2008 was 40 points of OPS worse than his first year as a Cub. His 2008 OPS was also 20 points worse than any season he's had since 2001. And the season he OPSd .842, he only played 50 games and was hurt (when Furcal ran into him and he missed most of the year).

 

So, in full seasons since 2001, his 2008 OPS was 40 points lower than any other year. That's not par for the course.