Bruce Miles on inefficient Cubs

[UK1679666180]

A [expletive] division is keeping them in contention. Unlike Balt. of '98, the Cubs don't have the Yankees to look up at.

[SouthSideRyan]

A [expletive] division is keeping them in contention. Unlike Balt. of '98, the Cubs don't have the Yankees to look up at.

 

You know what I meant, the farm has Theriot, Soto, Wells, Marshall, Marmol, and Guzman being major contributors to the team.

 

Then you've got Fox, Hoff, and Fontenot providing value as well.

[UK1679666180]

That doesn't take away the fact that they're still dead-locked b/c of the contracts of bad againg players. It's great that players like Marmol, (hopefully as a starter) Marshall, Soto, Theriot, etc. have contributed (although none are true impact players) but that core of lack of production per $$$ spent is there.

 

Personally, I don't know what I want them to do (ideally I'd rather them blow up the shop but they can't b/c not many want what they would want to get rid of). They have talent that isn't producing and b/c of that don't likely have what it takes to get it done and limited ability to improve on what they have.

[UK1679666180]

Jersey,

 

Appreciate the mention. If the Cubs don't make the playoffs or make it and get blown out again, I think things could get interesting.

 

--Bruce

 

The Cubs are stuck in limbo right now, similar to the Orioles about 9 years ago as far as generally declining with aging, regressing, and overpaid players absorbing most of the payroll and little from the (while slightly improving) farm system.

 

Oh god no, please don't say that. The Orioles of 9 years ago, ouch.

 

Look at the O's of 96', 97', and 98'.

[dew1679666265]

The point is our minor league system is day and night from teams like Minnesota, Atlanta, Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Yankees. I'm sorry to say but none of those players you mentioned are in the Top 50 players in baseball. We never have top notch prospects to make big deals. Jason Dubois is still starting in Triple A for us, he isn't a prospect, its been proven he cant play in the MLB and yet we give away guys like McGahee and Hamilton. If i were a scout and saw Fukudome's helicopter swing when I was scouting him I wouldn't have offered 14 million a year or whatever he's making. Our scouting/minor league system is garbage.

 

Josh Hamilton was never a part of the organization in any real sense. He was drafted with a pre-draft agreement to send him to the Reds. There was never an option to keep him. Casey McGehee has had 178 ABs in the majors this year. In his minor league career he posted a .283/.340/.417/.757 line. Those aren't numbers that make you think he's going to OPS .911 in the majors. Let's see how he continues to hit the rest of the year and into next season.

 

As for Fukudome, there is a lot to his ability over and above how he finishes his swings. He has quite a few positive attributes that make a lot of sense as to why the scouts felt strongly about him. And keep in mind, the Cubs scouts weren't the only ones who liked him. I believe the White Sox and Padres had similar, if not larger, offers on the table for him when he chose the Cubs.

 

And no, our minor league system isn't one of the top 5 or so in the majors, I'll agree (all the teams you listed are at or near the top of the rankings). But, since Tim Wilken has taken over the farm has improved greatly - to the point where it could be ranked in the teens at the start of next year. Those players are low in the system right now (mostly in AA and A ball) but there's plenty of reason to be very optimistic about the farm system. And I think you could make an argument that Zambrano is one of the better pitchers in the league right now and, if he keeps rebounding like he has been, Soto could still be one of the top catchers in the game. I also forgot Marmol in my list - a guy who the past couple of years has been one of the elite relievers in the game.

[jersey cubs fan]

Jersey,

 

Appreciate the mention. If the Cubs don't make the playoffs or make it and get blown out again, I think things could get interesting.

 

--Bruce

 

The Cubs are stuck in limbo right now, similar to the Orioles about 9 years ago as far as generally declining with aging, regressing, and overpaid players absorbing most of the payroll and little from the (while slightly improving) farm system.

 

Oh god no, please don't say that. The Orioles of 9 years ago, ouch.

 

Look at the O's of 96', 97', and 98'.

 

I don't have to look to know what you are referencing. And it makes me cry.

[jersey cubs fan]

Josh Hamilton was never a part of the organization in any real sense. He was drafted with a pre-draft agreement to send him to the Reds. There was never an option to keep him.

 

There was the option of drafting him for themselves in the first place.

[UK1679666180]

Jersey,

 

Appreciate the mention. If the Cubs don't make the playoffs or make it and get blown out again, I think things could get interesting.

 

--Bruce

 

The Cubs are stuck in limbo right now, similar to the Orioles about 9 years ago as far as generally declining with aging, regressing, and overpaid players absorbing most of the payroll and little from the (while slightly improving) farm system.

 

Oh god no, please don't say that. The Orioles of 9 years ago, ouch.

 

Look at the O's of 96', 97', and 98'.

 

I don't have to look to know what you are referencing. And it makes me cry.

 

I definitely don't want that path but it is a possibility these next few years.

[Derwood]

so you're saying that Alfonso Soriano = David Segui? :-&

[dew1679666265]

Josh Hamilton was never a part of the organization in any real sense. He was drafted with a pre-draft agreement to send him to the Reds. There was never an option to keep him.

 

There was the option of drafting him for themselves in the first place.

 

That's true, but Hamilton was never really in the organization to keep is the point.

[jersey cubs fan]

Josh Hamilton was never a part of the organization in any real sense. He was drafted with a pre-draft agreement to send him to the Reds. There was never an option to keep him.

 

There was the option of drafting him for themselves in the first place.

 

That's true, but Hamilton was never really in the organization to keep is the point.

 

Absolutely.

[TruffleShuffle]

I definitely don't want that path but it is a possibility these next few years.

 

eh it's possible, but baltimore is a middle-market team while the cubs can keep their payroll high. i can see them having a short down period but i don't see any reason that they should be in the toilet for 10 years.

[Sammy Sofa]

I definitely don't want that path but it is a possibility these next few years.

 

eh it's possible, but baltimore is a middle-market team while the cubs can keep their payroll high. i can see them having a short down period but i don't see any reason that they should be in the toilet for 10 years.

 

Plus the Orioles were the result of a truly apathetic and meddling owner willing to settle for the relative minimum investment to stay in the black. I suppose Ricketts could be along the lines of Angelos, but it would require him being a similar owner for the Cubs to truly become the O's.

[Soul]

That article gives voice to many of my feelings about Hendry, and the club's direction.

 

I'm sure nearly all of us have at least felt some worry about the overpaying of some of these guys. And I'm still very unhappy with the production of our minors, even though there have been a few players to come up. I want us producing actual super star position players that contribute for years & years at a high level. I'm still not seeing that, nor do I see it coming down the pike.

[UK1679666180]

I definitely don't want that path but it is a possibility these next few years.

 

eh it's possible, but baltimore is a middle-market team while the cubs can keep their payroll high. i can see them having a short down period but i don't see any reason that they should be in the toilet for 10 years.

 

Balt. had one of the highest payrolls at the time. Unless they cont. to build up the farm, I can see them being medicore (78-85 wins) for the next 5 years or so.

[Sammy Sofa]

I definitely don't want that path but it is a possibility these next few years.

 

eh it's possible, but baltimore is a middle-market team while the cubs can keep their payroll high. i can see them having a short down period but i don't see any reason that they should be in the toilet for 10 years.

 

Balt. had one of the highest payrolls at the time. Unless they cont. to build up the farm, I can see them being medicore (78-85 wins) for the next 5 years or so.

 

Why 5 years? The only contract by then still hanging around from today would be Soriano's.

[UK1679666180]

Because if they don't have the farm system, they're still going to be paying FA market value on players they'll need to replace who are past their prime (Z-2012, Lee-10, Lilly-10, Dempster-12). 2011 gives some hope given the most likely dead weight of Fukudome and Bradley will be off the books and hopefully Vitters has progressed to compete for the Ramirez spot. I don't want them in the same spot of trying to build a team thru FA, it doesn't work, this current regime doesn't have the same evaluation skills nor the farm of teams of recent champions.

[LuvChicagoSports]

Here is an interesting take on starting to fix the problems that have come up. Clearly it doesn't address fixing the roster problems, but it could start to address what is the core of the problem (overspending, lack of organizational talent, and no elite talent from within own system).

 

Getting a new GM and director of player development (potentially the guys mentioned in the article) would certainly be a way to begin addressing the issues. The hard part is going to be turning over the talent that is currently on the roster. There are untradeable contacts and players with no trade clauses.

[TruffleShuffle]

I definitely don't want that path but it is a possibility these next few years.

 

eh it's possible, but baltimore is a middle-market team while the cubs can keep their payroll high. i can see them having a short down period but i don't see any reason that they should be in the toilet for 10 years.

 

Balt. had one of the highest payrolls at the time. Unless they cont. to build up the farm, I can see them being medicore (78-85 wins) for the next 5 years or so.

 

at the time they did, but when they got bad they stopped spending so much money. they cut their payroll big-time from the late 90s to the early 2000s, the team stopped being competitive within the division and camden yards was no longer the shiny new toy. so people stopped going (attendance last year was less than 2M; during the 90s they were regularly drawing around 3.5M). the cubs will draw because of wrigley, as long as the product they're putting on the field is competitive.

 

i can see a down period for the cubs somewhere in the 2010-12 period, but once the financial commitments start to diminish, they'll be a major player in the free agent market again. things couldn't get much more dire than they were at the end of 2006, and the cubs turned it around very quickly by bringing in soriano, lilly, derosa, marquis (lol) and retaining the talent (lee, ramirez, zambrano) that was already there. they may not have a great system but i don't think it's any worse than it was in 2006, and guys like marmol, marshall, theriot, fontenot, soto, etc. have turned into significant contributors despite not being very highly-touted prospects.

 

probably the biggest concern is that in 2006, ramirez, lee, zambrano all had several more years of good production down the road - they can't count on lee, soriano, ramirez, fukudome to carry the offense as they head into their mid 30s. if i were the cubs i'd let lee walk and either go hard after a big-time free agent 1B in winter 2010 (unless it appears that vitters will have a big-time bat, then i'd consider moving ARam to 1B) or try to do a trade/sign for an elite corner IF... maybe a guy like adrian gonzalez if we could pry him away from SD. they are going to need a big-time bat to build around and at this point it looks unlikely to come from in house.

[TruffleShuffle]

Because if they don't have the farm system, they're still going to be paying FA market value on players they'll need to replace who are past their prime (Z-2012, Lee-10, Lilly-10, Dempster-12). 2011 gives some hope given the most likely dead weight of Fukudome and Bradley will be off the books and hopefully Vitters has progressed to compete for the Ramirez spot. I don't want them in the same spot of trying to build a team thru FA, it doesn't work, this current regime doesn't have the same evaluation skills nor the farm of teams of recent champions.

 

who do you see needing to be replaced in the minors? oneri fleita? tim wilken is pretty highly regarded, or at least was before coming here - do you like him? what would be the steps you'd take to upgrade the drafting/scouting/player development side of things?

[UK1679666180]

It starts at the top with Hendry. He had a poor off-season and hasn't delivered the ultimate goal for an organization that has provided the resources to do so. If the Cubs don't make the playoffs as I don't see them doing at this time, it would be pretty telling if Hendry and Minaya are let go. I don't see them letting Hendry go but it would be justified.

 

Wilken still hasn't had enough time to accurately judge his performance, whether or not it is doing or from above, their early draft picks have been safer players that despite that project more based on tools. Colvin and Jackson both projected as likely ML avg. OF'ers that were considered raw collegiate players. Cashner was a tweener b/c no one knew whether or not he would become a starter or stick as a reliever, he doesn't have the stuff of a #1 starter. The 4 highest profile picks of the last few years have similar traits between Jackson/Colvin and Samardzija/Cashner.

 

They've made steps towards improving the farm, I like the fact they are becoming a major player in the Pacific Rim, but I would like to see them take a more aggressive approach to the draft like Detroit does.

[biggers car]

That article gives voice to many of my feelings about Hendry, and the club's direction.

 

I'm sure nearly all of us have at least felt some worry about the overpaying of some of these guys. And I'm still very unhappy with the production of our minors, even though there have been a few players to come up. I want us producing actual super star position players that contribute for years & years at a high level. I'm still not seeing that, nor do I see it coming down the pike.

 

Just a question but how many teams product superstars for years on years? I give you Yankees, Boston, and Dodgers but off the top of my head thats got to be it?

[Wilson A2000]

Why did we sign Miles when we had Scales and Blanco?

 

Also, look at Reed Johnson. Dont get me wrong, hes a nice little role player/4th outfielder, but that 3 million could have gone a long way, especially along with the 6+ mil wasted on those other 3 jokers.

 

Did you think Scales and Blanco could hit in the low .300s for a season? They can't. Miles has been injured and isn't playing good, but at least he had a decent MLB track record before this year.

 

Reed Johnson played great last year and I bet he will turn it around in the next few months. He is a little overpriced for a fourth outfielder, but I still like him. This is just Monday morning quarterbacking.

[TruffleShuffle]

It starts at the top with Hendry. He had a poor off-season and hasn't delivered the ultimate goal for an organization that has provided the resources to do so. If the Cubs don't make the playoffs as I don't see them doing at this time, it would be pretty telling if Hendry and Minaya are let go. I don't see them letting Hendry go but it would be justified.

 

Wilken still hasn't had enough time to accurately judge his performance, whether or not it is doing or from above, their early draft picks have been safer players that despite that project more based on tools. Colvin and Jackson both projected as likely ML avg. OF'ers that were considered raw collegiate players. Cashner was a tweener b/c no one knew whether or not he would become a starter or stick as a reliever, he doesn't have the stuff of a #1 starter. The 4 highest profile picks of the last few years have similar traits between Jackson/Colvin and Samardzija/Cashner.

 

They've made steps towards improving the farm, I like the fact they are becoming a major player in the Pacific Rim, but I would like to see them take a more aggressive approach to the draft like Detroit does.

 

thanks for your take. i certainly would not quibble with hendry being let go, though i don't think he's as bad as most people say, so you need to have a good target in mind. i trust wilken's eye for talent though i still think that colvin was an awful pick. i also like the work the cubs have done in the pacific rim. they need to be smarter about who they overspend for in the draft. some of their bonus babies have been guys that weren't all that highly regarded - huseby was a reach at $1.3M, samardzija's contract was silly, cliff anderson is already gone, rundle has been a huge bust, nobody thought logan watkins was worth 500k, etc. i'd like to see them spend better over slot in the early rounds, and stop buying athletic guys away from football.

[Guest]

It could get much worse for the Cubs. Ricketts may have grossly overpayed for the Cubs. If that's the case we can forget about ever increasing payrolls.

 

Letting the Cubs crater for three our four years isn't necessarily a terrible thing and it may be a necessary thing to rebuild the brand. It won't matter either way unless Ricketts gets smart people to run his organization.