7/10/09 Cardinals(Carpenter) @ Cubs (Harden) 1:20 PM WGN

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's not about whether this was specifically predicted.

 

It's about acknowledging the range of possibilities. The Cubs had a lot of slightly-past-their-prime and injury prone players, so I think it's safe to say the "worst-case" end of their bell curve was at least a little more likely than it was for most teams.

 

And even given that, we're getting pretty average or above seasons from Derek Lee, Fukudome and Ryan Theriot, and Ramirez was doing great until he got hurt.

 

If you swap Wells and Harden's ERAs, you get almost exactly what you'd expect from the entire starting rotation. The bullpen doesn't look that bad.

 

Soriano, Soto, Bradley and 2b are where the sucking is coming from.

[BigSlick]

. Edited July 10, 2009 by BigSlick

[illiniguy]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

Either way you hire a new guy right now and he's not going to do well in time. We have some bad contracts. Might as well let Hendry ride out his guys.

[gflore34]

DL Soriano, if can't hit, he completely useless, go with Fox in LF.

[Arnold Layne]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

 

 

What is your evidence that the next GM will be a lock in terms of being inferior to Hendry?

[Arnold Layne]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

Either way you hire a new guy right now and he's not going to do well in time. We have some bad contracts. Might as well let Hendry ride out his guys.

 

 

Yeah, so Hendry can make more moves that freeze the team....

[gflore34]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

 

 

What is your evidence that the next GM will be a lock in terms of being inferior to Hendry?

 

I'd take a GM who drafted baseball players instead of "toolsy" athletes like Tyler Colvin.

[illiniguy]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

 

 

What is your evidence that the next GM will be a lock in terms of being inferior to Hendry?

 

I'd take a GM who drafted baseball players instead of "toolsy" athletes like Tyler Colvin.

The draft is a crapshoot.

[gflore34]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

 

 

What is your evidence that the next GM will be a lock in terms of being inferior to Hendry?

 

I'd take a GM who drafted baseball players instead of "toolsy" athletes like Tyler Colvin.

The draft is a crapshoot.

 

I know its a crapshoot but, at least draft someone who excels at baseball not, someone who has the ability to play baseball and may or may not excel at it.

[Arnold Layne]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

 

 

What is your evidence that the next GM will be a lock in terms of being inferior to Hendry?

 

I'd take a GM who drafted baseball players instead of "toolsy" athletes like Tyler Colvin.

The draft is a crapshoot.

 

How can it be a crapshoot when you can scout all the players ahead of time and line up the ones that best fit your philosophy and needs? IF your #1 goes, try and get your #2. If your #2 goes, try and get your #3.

 

You make it sound like they reach into a grab bag with names on pieces of paper.

[illiniguy]

 

I know its a crapshoot but, at least draft someone who excels at baseball not, someone who has the ability to play baseball and may or may not excel at it.

Like never ever pick a toolsy guy like Justin Upton when you could have a complete baseball player like Alex Gordon?

Sure the Colvin picked sucked, but Hendry isn't really the guy to blame for that one. That would be Tim Wilken.

[illiniguy]

 

How can it be a crapshoot when you can scout all the players ahead of time and line up the ones that best fit your philosophy and needs? IF your #1 goes, try and get your #2. If your #2 goes, try and get your #3.

 

You make it sound like they reach into a grab bag with names on pieces of paper.

Come on, really? You really need an explanation for how the baseball draft is a crapshoot?

[gflore34]

 

I know its a crapshoot but, at least draft someone who excels at baseball not, someone who has the ability to play baseball and may or may not excel at it.

Like never ever pick a toolsy guy like Justin Upton when you could have a complete baseball player like Alex Gordon?

Sure the Colvin picked sucked, but Hendry isn't really the guy to blame for that one. That would be Tim Wilken.

 

Bret Jackson fits the same profile

[illiniguy]

 

I know its a crapshoot but, at least draft someone who excels at baseball not, someone who has the ability to play baseball and may or may not excel at it.

Like never ever pick a toolsy guy like Justin Upton when you could have a complete baseball player like Alex Gordon?

Sure the Colvin picked sucked, but Hendry isn't really the guy to blame for that one. That would be Tim Wilken.

 

Bret Jackson fits the same profile

Yep. But so did Nick Markakis and Alexis Rios.

[Arnold Layne]

 

How can it be a crapshoot when you can scout all the players ahead of time and line up the ones that best fit your philosophy and needs? IF your #1 goes, try and get your #2. If your #2 goes, try and get your #3.

 

You make it sound like they reach into a grab bag with names on pieces of paper.

Come on, really? You really need an explanation for how the baseball draft is a crapshoot?

 

The draft is not a crapshoot when you are building from an organizational philosophy. Sure, it may be a crapshoot getting #1 and #2 on your list, but that in no way prevents you from selecting players who fit what you perceive is the best way to build a baseball team. Its structure is not a crapshoot in reality.

 

A crapshoot would be putting names on pieces of paper, mixing them up in a bag and then having teams dig in.

[gflore34]

 

I know its a crapshoot but, at least draft someone who excels at baseball not, someone who has the ability to play baseball and may or may not excel at it.

Like never ever pick a toolsy guy like Justin Upton when you could have a complete baseball player like Alex Gordon?

Sure the Colvin picked sucked, but Hendry isn't really the guy to blame for that one. That would be Tim Wilken.

 

Just looked at his minor league statistics and to say the pick sucked is an understatement, he's awful and quite probably will never even sniff a major league roster.

[illiniguy]

 

I know its a crapshoot but, at least draft someone who excels at baseball not, someone who has the ability to play baseball and may or may not excel at it.

Like never ever pick a toolsy guy like Justin Upton when you could have a complete baseball player like Alex Gordon?

Sure the Colvin picked sucked, but Hendry isn't really the guy to blame for that one. That would be Tim Wilken.

 

Just looked at his minor league statistics and to say the pick sucked is an understatement, he's awful and quite probably will never even sniff a major league roster.

Yep that's true. Hendry also drafter Soto in like the 10th round. I would say we are getting a little better than average from the 10th round.

[illiniguy]

 

How can it be a crapshoot when you can scout all the players ahead of time and line up the ones that best fit your philosophy and needs? IF your #1 goes, try and get your #2. If your #2 goes, try and get your #3.

 

You make it sound like they reach into a grab bag with names on pieces of paper.

Come on, really? You really need an explanation for how the baseball draft is a crapshoot?

 

The draft is not a crapshoot when you are building from an organizational philosophy. Sure, it may be a crapshoot getting #1 and #2 on your list, but that in no way prevents you from selecting players who fit what you perceive is the best way to build a baseball team. Its structure is not a crapshoot in reality.

 

A crapshoot would be putting names on pieces of paper, mixing them up in a bag and then having teams dig in.

You know what you're right. We should have a draft philosophy of drafting onlygreat power hitters with great patience. I'm not sure why we didn't think of this before.

[Sammy Sofa]

Since 03 we have won 3 division titles. So that's what 3 in 6 years. I don't remember our history, but has anyone else this century been able to claim this? Oh and how many other GMs have built a team that won a playoff series for us?

 

I feel bad for Arnold about how his heart will break when the next GM after Hendry is worse.

 

 

What is your evidence that the next GM will be a lock in terms of being inferior to Hendry?

 

That medicore to bad GM's are employed, in my opinion, by most of the teams in MLB in pretty much any given season.

 

Do I think Hendry is a good or great GM? Of course not. If I had my way I'd love if the Cubs could end up with someone better. Once the ownership situation is ironed out I will have no qualms if he is fired. That said, I don't have much confidence that someone better will be hired. I think it's far more likely that someone as bad or worse ends up in the GM spot. I hope I'm wrong and the Ricketts buck the trend and are actually baseball savvy or, God willing, listen to people who are and hire someone who is the great GM the Cubs should have...but I'm not holding my breath. I'm basically just hoping for someone who doesn't suck too much.

[dew1679666265]

 

How can it be a crapshoot when you can scout all the players ahead of time and line up the ones that best fit your philosophy and needs? IF your #1 goes, try and get your #2. If your #2 goes, try and get your #3.

 

You make it sound like they reach into a grab bag with names on pieces of paper.

Come on, really? You really need an explanation for how the baseball draft is a crapshoot?

 

The draft is not a crapshoot when you are building from an organizational philosophy. Sure, it may be a crapshoot getting #1 and #2 on your list, but that in no way prevents you from selecting players who fit what you perceive is the best way to build a baseball team. Its structure is not a crapshoot in reality.

 

A crapshoot would be putting names on pieces of paper, mixing them up in a bag and then having teams dig in.

 

You can draft players who fit your philosophy (which Wilken has done) but sometimes they don't develop like you thought they would. That is why the draft is a crapshoot.

 

Mark Prior was the most sure thing in the draft. Kevin Orie was going to be the Cubs' third baseman of the future. Lastings Milledge was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Ryan Wagner was going to be a stud.

 

At the same time, Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick. Soto went in the 10th round. Jason Isringhausen was taken in the 44th round. Jorge Posada was taken in the 24th round. Mike Piazza was taken in the 62nd round.

 

The draft is not an exact science.