Re: 6/23 postgame... Gregg meatball #684

[Little Slide Rooter]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

If we want to take a cheap risk that could pay off, the Twins DFAd Luis Ayala.

[dew1679666265]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board.

 

Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell?

[SouthSideRyan]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

If we want to take a cheap risk that could pay off, the Twins DFAd Luis Ayala.

 

He's probably worse than David Patton.

[UK1679666180]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board.

 

Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell?

 

Gregg hasn't been that good though, he's pitched better of late, but he's still too flaky to consistently use in close and late roles. Trying to rely on him and Marmol in late roles is asking too much from them on a team that has struggled to score runs and has been constantly been in low scoring close games. You definitely can't count on Guzman either given his injury history.

 

Right now, the pen projects to slightly below avg.

 

They have the prospects & if they feel they have a chance to win it all, then I think they have to look at upgrading what I mentioned.

[dew1679666265]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board.

 

Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell?

 

Gregg hasn't been that good though, he's pitched better of late, but he's still too flaky to consistently use in close and late roles. Trying to rely on him and Marmol in late roles is asking too much from them on a team that has struggled to score runs and has been constantly been in low scoring close games. You definitely can't count on Guzman either given his injury history.

 

Right now, the pen projects to slightly below avg.

 

They have the prospects & if they feel they have a chance to win it all, then I think they have to look at upgrading what I mentioned.

 

You have to consider the availability of good, young closers though. What's the incentive for the Padres to deal Bell? If we offer them a deal they can't refuse, maybe they'd have incentive, but is the upgrade worth it then? Can we afford what's left of Soriano's $6 million salary?

 

If you look at the closers more likely to be available, they'll either be too expensive to take their salary or would cost more in prospects than they'd be worth. I just don't know who we could realistically target.

[17 Seconds]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board.

 

Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell?

 

They aren't young. Soriano is 29 and Bell is 31. Plus I don't see why the Braves would trade Soriano. They're only 4 games back in the division and even closer in the WC race. Their pitching looks really good. If they trade for a big bat they might be the best team in that division.

[dew1679666265]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board.

 

Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell?

 

They aren't young. Soriano is 29 and Bell is 31. Plus I don't see why the Braves would trade Soriano. They're only 4 games back in the division and even closer in the WC race. Their pitching looks really good. If they trade for a big bat they might be the best team in that division.

 

Hmm, good point on their ages. I was going off memory on that and apparently was off. Soriano seems much younger than that, for some reason.

 

And yes, the fact that the Braves are competitive in a bad division further decreases the reason they'd have to trade any key reliever.

[Vanilla Ice]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

If we want to take a cheap risk that could pay off, the Twins DFAd Luis Ayala.

He is replacement level. I'm going to quote Fangraphs real fast.

 

The Twins designated Luis Ayala for assignment, as Minnesota becomes the third team to get rid of him in the last 12 months. Here’s how he’s performed over the last three seasons.

 

BB/9: 2.55, 2.83, 2.23

K/9: 5.95, 5.95, 5.83

HR/9: 1.06, 1.07, 1.11

 

Or, if you want to see it expressed in terms of wins above replacement: 0.0, 0.0, 0.1.

 

There’s nothing that stands out about Ayala. He’s just a run of the mill strike throwing reliever with nondescript stuff. Luis Ayala defines replacement level.

[17 Seconds]

I was hoping for Huston Street, but now the Rockies are on fire

[UK1679666180]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

 

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board.

 

Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell?

 

Gregg hasn't been that good though, he's pitched better of late, but he's still too flaky to consistently use in close and late roles. Trying to rely on him and Marmol in late roles is asking too much from them on a team that has struggled to score runs and has been constantly been in low scoring close games. You definitely can't count on Guzman either given his injury history.

 

Right now, the pen projects to slightly below avg.

 

They have the prospects & if they feel they have a chance to win it all, then I think they have to look at upgrading what I mentioned.

 

You have to consider the availability of good, young closers though. What's the incentive for the Padres to deal Bell? If we offer them a deal they can't refuse, maybe they'd have incentive, but is the upgrade worth it then? Can we afford what's left of Soriano's $6 million salary?

 

If you look at the closers more likely to be available, they'll either be too expensive to take their salary or would cost more in prospects than they'd be worth. I just don't know who we could realistically target.

 

You're not going to win with this pen, it's not good enough.

 

I would look at Bell 1st, he's probably been one of the top 3 relievers in MLB over the last 3 years. Depending on what Toronto does, Downs would also be on my list as far as closers as well.

 

My #1 target right now would be Freddy Sanchez as far as the one player that would help this team immed., but you'd still need to upgrade the pen.

[UK1679666180]

I was hoping for Huston Street, but now the Rockies are on fire

 

Street hasn't been that effective this year, whether that's because of a new team, new league, and/or Coors is up for debate.

 

Neither him nor Jenks have been very productive this year, same for Rivera.

[dew1679666265]

You're not going to win with this pen, it's not good enough.

 

If the offensive players who should improve do (Bradley, Soto, Kosuke, Soriano), then I disagree with this. If the offense keeps giving the pen nothing but one run leads and tie games, then you may be right, but upgrading the pen won't help that much.

 

I would look at Bell 1st, he's probably been one of the top 3 relievers in MLB over the last 3 years. Depending on what Toronto does, Downs would also be on my list as far as closers as well.

 

I still don't know what the incentive San Diego would have to trade Bell. He's 31, so he's not young, but he's cheap ($1.225 million this year) and not likely to go up that much in arbitration next year.

 

My #1 target right now would be Freddy Sanchez as far as the one player that would help this team immed., but you'd still need to upgrade the pen.

 

I don't know what to make of Sanchez. He's been good this year, but was awful last year and only decent the year before - but very good again three years ago.

 

I wouldn't give a lot for Sanchez, but I'd be interested. I suspect they'd want more than he's worth, though.

[UK1679666180]

SD's incentive would be to maximize their younger talent for Bell on a team that has no chance of winning anytime soon, I expect him to get around 4 mil next year.

 

As far as Sanchez, he was bothered by a shoulder injury for most of the year but played thru it.

 

He's been the 3rd best 2B in MLB this year, he was terrible in '08, 10th best in '07, and the 4th best in '06. It looks to me that '08 was the fluke.

 

Also, it pushes Fontenot into the role now occupied by Miles.

 

A bench of Fontenot, Fox, Hoffpauir, Hill, Johnson, and Miles becomes much better.

 

Bell, Marmol, Guzman, Gregg, Marshall, & Ascanio becomes a very good pen and puts Gregg where he should be as the team's 4th or 5th best reliever, which is expected from a solid pen. Have him as the 3rd best and utilize as a closer and it hurts the club, especially compared to someone like Bell.

[17 Seconds]

I was hoping for Huston Street, but now the Rockies are on fire

 

Street hasn't been that effective this year, whether that's because of a new team, new league, and/or Coors is up for debate.

 

Neither him nor Jenks have been very productive this year, same for Rivera.

 

Huh? All 3 of those guys have good numbers.

[Keener98]

Houston Street hasnt been that effective this year?

 

3.19 ERA 1.19 Whip .222BAA 35ks in 31ip and only 9 walks. Id like to know what exactly your idea of effective is I guess, cause Id kill to have a reliever in our pen right now with a 4:1 k/bb ratio.

[Sammy Sofa]

That's the 11th blown save by our bullpen and it's mid/late June?

 

I don't think we're going anywhere unless we figure out our bullpen problems, to say nothing of the sluggish offense which reared its ugly head again these past 2 days.

 

What's the timeline of those blown saves?

 

Piecing it together:

 

04/10-Gregg

04/16-Heilman

04/18-Marmol

04/30-Marmol

05/08-Heilman

05/16-Heilman

05/25-Cotts

06/02-Gregg

06/07-Heilman

06/20-Marmol

06-23-Gregg

 

The Cubs are 4-7 in games where there has been a blown save.

 

Good relievers or not, the Cubs are going to have several blown saves if they're asked to protect a 1 run lead most nights. They are playing way too many close games to not have a few trickle away from them.

 

Exactly. Looking for outside help for the bullpen ignores the larger problem of improving the offense. More close games = games blown by the bullpen.

[Vanilla Ice]

Also, there is no way in hell Heilman gets four more save opportunities the rest of the season.

[17 Seconds]

Houston Street hasnt been that effective this year?

 

3.19 ERA 1.19 Whip .222BAA 35ks in 31ip and only 9 walks. Id like to know what exactly your idea of effective is I guess, cause Id kill to have a reliever in our pen right now with a 4:1 k/bb ratio.

 

His WHIP is 1.13 actually.... even better

[Cubbie Swagger]

Most pitchers are capable of having a good week or two here and there... that doesn't mean they don't suck.

 

Kevin Gregg is a horrible closer, and that will probably never change.

[Sammy Sofa]

Kevin Gregg is a horrible closer, and that will probably never change.

 

He's not, and that's been broken down repeatedly for you, but feel free to keep flogging that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Judging individual relievers by ERA is pretty bad, and judging a full bullpen by it is merely OK, but if you took the 6 relievers that would make up a Cubs postseason bullpen right now, their ERAs would be well above average on the individual(every one of the 6) and group basis(obviously)

[Guest]

That's the 11th blown save by our bullpen and it's mid/late June?

 

Take a wild guess how many blown saves the Cubs had on this date last year.

 

Out of my own curiosity, how many?

[UK1679666180]

Houston Street hasnt been that effective this year?

 

3.19 ERA 1.19 Whip .222BAA 35ks in 31ip and only 9 walks. Id like to know what exactly your idea of effective is I guess, cause Id kill to have a reliever in our pen right now with a 4:1 k/bb ratio.

 

Like Gregg, he's given up too many HRs and he's been below avg. as far as not allowing inherited runners to score (worse than Gregg in this case).

[CubColtPacer]

Also, there is no way in hell Heilman gets four more save opportunities the rest of the season.

 

He might. Blown saves can happen in either the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings. I believe 3 of Heilman's 4 blown saves so far were before the 9th inning.

 

Besides, two of Heilman's 4 blown saves are really Gregg and Marmol's fault anyway. The 5/16 game (where Gregg left with a 4-2 lead, bases loaded and nobody out) and the 06/07 game against the Reds (where Marmol left him with runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out) were both games that Heilman got charged with the blown save because the runners scored on his watch, but he really didn't pitch badly in either outing.

[dew1679666265]

Most pitchers are capable of having a good week or two here and there... that doesn't mean they don't suck.

 

Kevin Gregg is a horrible closer, and that will probably never change.

 

Except Gregg has had a great month, not just a week or two. Overall he's been decent this season, but he's been excellent for the past 4 weeks.