College Basketball 2009-10

[SouthSideRyan]

At this point I am cheering to not finish last place. Before the season started I would have been inconceivable.

 

You've pretty much locked up the 9 seed in the Big Ten Tourney cause you're 3-0 vs PSU and IU, and it's pretty damn unlikely that either of them win their last 2.

 

Also, some really smart guy on here said you wouldn't finish in last this year.

 

Nice job predicting Mo Creek's injury.

 

IU's only had 3 close losses all Big Ten season, and did lose to Loyola, Boston, and George Mason with Creek. There's no guarantee Indiana wins the 2 more games necessary to finish ahead of Iowa with him.

[Exile on Waveland]

At this point I am cheering to not finish last place. Before the season started I would have been inconceivable.

 

You've pretty much locked up the 9 seed in the Big Ten Tourney cause you're 3-0 vs PSU and IU, and it's pretty damn unlikely that either of them win their last 2.

 

Also, some really smart guy on here said you wouldn't finish in last this year.

 

Nice job predicting Mo Creek's injury.

 

IU's only had 3 close losses all Big Ten season, and did lose to Loyola, Boston, and George Mason with Creek. There's no guarantee Indiana wins the 2 more games necessary to finish ahead of Iowa with him.

 

True, I can't empirically prove how many more games -- if any, and it could have been zero, or, however unlikely, less-- IU would've won with Creek. However, you basically just attempted the opposite. I don't think you can say "IU lost X game by more than X points, therefore Creek wouldn't have made a difference that game." For example, the first Iowa game was a 3-point game around midway through the second half before they lost by 15. I think you know better than this superficial analysis. I also don't think you can only cite the bad teams IU lost to with Creek, while ignoring the good teams IU beat with him (admittedly, only one, but it is a team clearly better than all but four Big Ten teams). Simply put, we just don't know how many more, if any, wins IU would have with a healthy Creek; however, what we do know is teams are generally worse off when their best player is out. So patting yourself on the back for prescience requires the suspended disbelief that this was the IU team you expected would participate in the Big Ten. It wasn't.

 

Hypothetical: After the Patriots nearly went undefeated in 2007, I predicted they'd miss the playoffs the next year. I'm AWESOME.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think you're reading too much into a throwaway comment. And it's not like IU is the only one Iowa is finishing ahead of. (Even if I didn't predict them to finish ahead of PSU)

 

If I wanted to gloat about a prediction, it'd be how UNC wasn't any good.

[cubsfan]

 

Outside of the Minnesota game, the Illinois game, the Michigan State game, the Tennessee State game, the Michigan game, the other Illinois game, the Ohio State game, the Purdue game, and the Northwestern game this team beats the November/December version by 20.

Fixed your post. Come on, man. You crazy.

[ZMovieman]

I know this hasn't gotten a ton of press, but I was wondering if anyone knew the answer to this. Has any team won three straight road games on the same trip in OT like Marquette did last week? I can't imagine the situation happens often (like the Bulls winning five straight road games on the same trip against teams with winning records).

[hawkeyecub]

 

Outside of the Minnesota game, the Illinois game, the Michigan State game, the Tennessee State game, the Michigan game, the other Illinois game, the Ohio State game, the Purdue game, and the Northwestern game this team beats the November/December version by 20.

Fixed your post. Come on, man. You crazy.

 

If you don't think this team has improved dramatically then you haven't been watching. From the middle of January to the end of February they had one game where they weren't competitive.

[Rusch33]

 

Outside of the Minnesota game, the Illinois game, the Michigan State game, the Tennessee State game, the Michigan game, the other Illinois game, the Ohio State game, the Purdue game, and the Northwestern game this team beats the November/December version by 20.

Fixed your post. Come on, man. You crazy.

 

If you don't think this team has improved dramatically then you haven't been watching. From the middle of January to the end of February they had one game where they weren't competitive.

 

 

What game is that? Northwestern game?

 

Are you forgetting the Purdue game @ Purdue, or the Michigan game @ Michigan? That's three right there.

[Exile on Waveland]

I think you're reading too much into a throwaway comment. And it's not like IU is the only one Iowa is finishing ahead of. (Even if I didn't predict them to finish ahead of PSU)

 

Hey, you're very likely right. You can't really blame me for being edgy on this subject though, now can you?

 

 

 

And while we're patting ourselves on the back, I was all over Penn State being bad.

[cubsfan]

 

Outside of the Minnesota game, the Illinois game, the Michigan State game, the Tennessee State game, the Michigan game, the other Illinois game, the Ohio State game, the Purdue game, and the Northwestern game this team beats the November/December version by 20.

Fixed your post. Come on, man. You crazy.

 

If you don't think this team has improved dramatically then you haven't been watching. From the middle of January to the end of February they had one game where they weren't competitive.

 

 

What game is that? Northwestern game?

 

Are you forgetting the Purdue game @ Purdue, or the Michigan game @ Michigan? That's three right there.

Also @ Ohio State and home vs Illinois. But hey, that's only half the games where they were totally uncompetitive.

[Sosa21MVP]

Well thank god that New Mexico is having a great season so I can read threads on the IU boards about OMG WE SHOULD HAVE HIRED ALFORD. ](*,)

[SouthSideRyan]

Well thank god that New Mexico is having a great season so I can read threads on the IU boards about OMG WE SHOULD HAVE HIRED ALFORD. ](*,)

 

Be thankful Texas Tech fell apart.

 

ETA: And by fell apart, I mean started to play real teams.

[Sosa21MVP]

Well thank god that New Mexico is having a great season so I can read threads on the IU boards about OMG WE SHOULD HAVE HIRED ALFORD. ](*,)

 

Be thankful Texas Tech fell apart.

 

ETA: And by fell apart, I mean started to play real teams.

 

Well yeah, that too.

 

However I must say I have rarely seen any IU fans wanting PFK (Pat Freaking Knight) to coach our team. lol

[Ryno12]

 

Outside of the Minnesota game, the Illinois game, the Michigan State game, the Tennessee State game, the Michigan game, the other Illinois game, the Ohio State game, the Purdue game, and the Northwestern game this team beats the November/December version by 20.

Fixed your post. Come on, man. You crazy.

 

If you don't think this team has improved dramatically then you haven't been watching. From the middle of January to the end of February they had one game where they weren't competitive.

 

 

What game is that? Northwestern game?

 

Are you forgetting the Purdue game @ Purdue, or the Michigan game @ Michigan? That's three right there.

Also @ Ohio State and home vs Illinois. But hey, that's only half the games where they were totally uncompetitive.

 

Iowa still isn't good, and has had plenty of games where they just flat out got worked. However, they have improved by leaps and bounds since the beginning of the year. They were straight terrible at the beginning of the year though, so it's not saying that much.

[NeifiIsMyHomeBoy]

I still think that with Jake Kelly, Iowa would have been semi-decent this year. That transfer really hurt the program, but he left for the right reasons.

[Old Style]

How the eff is texas still ranked in the coaches poll?

[fiver]

well...at least IU made me a little money the last couple of months by being consistently worse than expected...there really aren't too many more positives than that this year..and the future isn't exactly beaming with promise.

[Derwood]

How the eff is texas still ranked in the coaches poll?

 

losing 5 of 7 isn't top 25 material in your world?

[hawkeyecub]

 

Outside of the Minnesota game, the Illinois game, the Michigan State game, the Tennessee State game, the Michigan game, the other Illinois game, the Ohio State game, the Purdue game, and the Northwestern game this team beats the November/December version by 20.

Fixed your post. Come on, man. You crazy.

 

If you don't think this team has improved dramatically then you haven't been watching. From the middle of January to the end of February they had one game where they weren't competitive.

 

 

What game is that? Northwestern game?

 

Are you forgetting the Purdue game @ Purdue, or the Michigan game @ Michigan? That's three right there.

Also @ Ohio State and home vs Illinois. But hey, that's only half the games where they were totally uncompetitive.

 

At Ohio State was 5 at halftime and it got up to 14 once which was the largest lead. Illinois at home was between 3-5 for basically the last 5 minutes. We had the ball down 3 with 40 seconds to go. That's not competitive? Get a clue.

 

I miscounted by one. We played 10 Big Ten games from the middle of January until the Northwestern game. At Purdue and at Michigan were the only games they weren't competitive.

[NeifiIsMyHomeBoy]

How the eff is texas still ranked in the coaches poll?

 

losing 5 of 7 isn't top 25 material in your world?

 

I can't help but think this is due to their high preseason ranking

[cubsfan]

At Ohio State was 5 at halftime and it got up to 14 once which was the largest lead. Illinois at home was between 3-5 for basically the last 5 minutes. We had the ball down 3 with 40 seconds to go. That's not competitive? Get a clue.

 

I miscounted by one. We played 10 Big Ten games from the middle of January until the Northwestern game. At Purdue and at Michigan were the only games they weren't competitive.

I need to get a clue? You're the one defending the worst team in the 100+ year history of the program and the coach with the worst record in program history. I don't care how you try to strech the numbers, they've been blown out in more games than they were competitive in.

[hawkeyecub]

At Ohio State was 5 at halftime and it got up to 14 once which was the largest lead. Illinois at home was between 3-5 for basically the last 5 minutes. We had the ball down 3 with 40 seconds to go. That's not competitive? Get a clue.

 

I miscounted by one. We played 10 Big Ten games from the middle of January until the Northwestern game. At Purdue and at Michigan were the only games they weren't competitive.

I need to get a clue? You're the one defending the worst team in the 100+ year history of the program and the coach with the worst record in program history. I don't care how you try to strech the numbers, they've been blown out in more games than they were competitive in.

 

You said they weren't competitive in a game where they had the ball with a chance to tie with 40 seconds left. So yes I stand by my point. That's not stretching any numbers.

 

You're making a strawman. I simply said they've improved greatly and have 1 non-freshman or soph contributing consistently and they're not going to finish 10th or 11th like everyone thought. They trade Bawinkel who has almost become a non-factor for 4 recruits, all of whom had high-major offers and a class that's ranked top 30 by at least a couple of sources.

Of course I'm pissed that the program is in this state in year 3 but I at least have some hope for next year. If they keep everyone around I think they'll be similar to Northwestern this year. The key is not having any defections because with Kelly and Peterson they're probably a .500 team this year.

 

I do have to give you credit for not making a gay insult or joke which apparently is what caused you to change your name.

[shnsajax]

How the eff is texas still ranked in the coaches poll?

 

Haha, because you hate them :-). But they lost to a top 25 team on the road, just like A&M did to Baylor. They have the same amount of loses as Wisconsin and Pitt. Of the 7 loses 5 were against Top 25 teams. A&M's resume is not any better than Texas either but yes they are riding off of their hot start to the season.

[cubsfan]

Lickliter must be hooking up with you after the games for you to be confident they'll be significantly better next year.

 

 

And yes, they have improved a bit. But going from putrid to bad isn't enough. They still can't play defense or break a press and there's 2 games left in the season.

[hawkeyecub]

Lickliter must be hooking up with you after the games for you to be confident they'll be significantly better next year.

 

 

And yes, they have improved a bit. But going from putrid to bad isn't enough. They still can't play defense or break a press and there's 2 games left in the season.

 

There it is, there's the joke I knew you had in you.

 

Basketball Prospectus last year had a study on teams that returned 90% of their minutes from the previous season. Those teams averaged something like a 4 game win improvement in conference from the previous year. Iowa will be right around that number, maybe 1-2% below it. So just following that trend along with adding some actual depth and increasing the talent level, I think that's a reasonable expectation.

 

Northwestern in '08 was 8-22 and 1-17 in the league. They only had 1 senior that year who was a role player. Last year in a tougher Big Ten they went 17-12 in the regular season and 8-10 in the Big Ten. That happened because all of their fresh-soph's got better and added three less-heralded recruits than what we're bringing in.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Basketball Prospectus last year had a study on teams that returned 90% of their minutes from the previous season. Those teams averaged something like a 4 game win improvement in conference from the previous year. Iowa will be right around that number, maybe 1-2% below it. So just following that trend along with adding some actual depth and increasing the talent level, I think that's a reasonable expectation.

 

 

The problem is none of the other teams in the bottom half are losing anybody either. Michigan and NU are the only lower half teams to lose a senior of significance, and Northwestern is replacing that senior with a returning Kevin Coble.