Cardinals best start since '44

[webjim25]

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

 

well wait, you can't say that dempster and a bunch of cub positioned players overproduced last year and can be expected to fall back, but assume that ludwick, skippy, the various third basemen (last year mostly glaus), wellemeyer, lohse and various bullpen pitchers will all be just as good.

 

Truffle,

this is what I mean.

 

Skippy wasnt even that good last year. He was barely league average. In 07 he was better. Im not execting Skip to be Barry Bonds, just slightly above average like he was the last 2 seasons. The 'various' 3Bmen will be replaced by Glause, who is the model of consistency. 120 OPS+ the last 5 seasons. When he is back, I see no reason not to expect that from him. What Barden and Thurston are doing right now is a fluke, but Glaus is a blue print. Between Loshe and Wellemyer, I dont see what the big deal is. Last year they were both like 113 ERA+. That is hardly earth shattering. Dave Duncan has been making scrap heap pitchers servicable his entire career. It isnt that pitched like...i dont know, Ryan Dempster or something outrageous like that. The bullpen has to be better. I did not say great, I said better. Why do they have to be better? Because they were the worst in the league. They are going to be better on default alone.

 

The bullpen can be worse. This "they have to be better" thing is garbage. Ranking wise they were last, but there is room for statistical regression. And guys like Pineiro, Wellemeyer (120 IP over his previous career high) and Lohse (his most IP since 2003) are important because they ate innings. A lot of them.

 

You have a young, shaky pen. If those guys don't eat a lot again, it will put a lot of pressure and workload on that pen. It is very easy to envision a realistic scenario in which things get truly ugly. And don't forget Looper's 199 innings has to be accounted for, and Wainwright and Carpenter won't do it on their own.

 

OK you make a legit point. Me and the wifey are going out to see Wolverine. You and I will finish this next week, and throughout the season.

[TruffleShuffle]

Skippy wasnt even that good last year. He was barely league average. In 07 he was better.

 

that's because he's not good. he was better in 2007 because he had a ridiculous .363 BABIP.

 

The 'various' 3Bmen will be replaced by Glause, who is the model of consistency. 120 OPS+ the last 5 seasons. When he is back, I see no reason not to expect that from him.

 

glaus had health issues for much of his career. then last year he played 151 games, had his highest single-season OBP since 2000, and improved his production (presumably) without the steroids he was using while with anaheim and toronto. now glaus is hurt, like one would expect, but barden and thurston are putting up better-than-glaus numbers.

 

anyway, glaus is going to start declining soon. just hope that it isn't this year.

[illiniguy]

This reminds me of a poster that was on here last year abou tthis time telling us about how the Cubs were going to fall off and the Cards guys were more likely to keep it up. What was that poster's name??/

[Vanilla Ice]

So its no problem that the production of Edmonds will not be dublicated

 

actually when you factor in pie's uselessness, cubs CF hit .290/.374/.484/.858. if fukudome has made the adjustments to be a productive hitter - which certainly seems possible since he's showing more extra base power and maintaining an excellent walk rate - a platoon of fukudome and reed johnson could very easily put up a line similar to cubs' CF in 2008 without much luck involved.

When you factor in defense, the Cubs CF are likely to be better this year

[NCCubFan]

reyes is solid when used properly (vs RHP) and i'd expect either motte or perez to turn into good relievers, if not both of them.

 

 

Reyes now pitches for Cleveland. All indications suggests that Motte will turn into a very reliable bullpen arm.

Different Reyes.

[haltz]

Eh, Izzy's gone and he was the main culprit wrt the pen being pretty bad last year. You can say they were 16th in BS or 6th in saves. Both numbers are sort of stupid to look at and don't have anything to do with this year. I don't know how Franklin's doing what he's doing, but there are some decent arms there otherwise and Jess Todd's apparently now fasttracked for a relief role.

 

I expected them to win 85-87 games, but wins in the bank and all that. They've got a real shot now. BP was one of the more pessimistic forecasts this year, and now the PECOTA odds report says over/under of 91 wins and a 50% shot at the playoffs. Sounds about right to me.

 

Also, Schumaker is just brutal defensively. It'll probably take too long to pull the plug, but I'll be shocked if he's playing 2B in August.

[Outshined_One]

The problem with the Cardinals this year is, much like the Brewers last year, they have a well-stocked farm system that can be used to make trades. I don't know what their payroll situation looks like, but they certainly could add an impact player at any position of need.

 

If they're still in the thick of things in June, I can see them making a move for someone like Matt Holliday. That would suck.

[haltz]

I'd also be shocked if they traded for someone like Holliday. At that point they'll probably be looking to move an outfielder or two and acquire pitching or middle infielders. There is an obvious parallel with Wallace and LaPorta though, unless they really think he'll play 3B in the majors.

 

It seems like a very passive and analytical FO, so who knows what they'll be willing to do (in terms of a rental). A lot of that has to do with ticket sales supposedly, and being in contention can only help there.

Edited May 3, 2009 by haltz

[TruffleShuffle]

pujols' contract needs to be up soon so the cards have to pay him $30M a year or whatever instead of the bargain they're currently getting.

[Andy]

I have little to add except that webjim brought up Aaron Miles as if he was bad for the Cardinals last year. Of course, as we all know, he was not. He had a higher OPS than Theriot (and one about 60-80 points above his norm, for that matter). OPS+ of 99, which is pretty darn good for a super-sub.

 

Of course, he's wearing a Cub uniform, so now he's working on a solid OPS+ of 12.

[Brian]

pujols' contract needs to be up soon so the cards have to pay him $30M a year or whatever instead of the bargain they're currently getting.

 

09:$16M, 10:$16M, 11:$16M club option ($5M buyout)

 

I wonder if that option gets picked up

[Banedon]

I had a dream that we found out that every player on the Cardinals is juicing.

[TruffleShuffle]

pujols' contract needs to be up soon so the cards have to pay him $30M a year or whatever instead of the bargain they're currently getting.

 

09:$16M, 10:$16M, 11:$16M club option ($5M buyout)

 

I wonder if that option gets picked up

 

eh $5M is pretty big for a buyout, they might as well just let him play it out.

[Bull]

reyes is solid when used properly (vs RHP) and i'd expect either motte or perez to turn into good relievers, if not both of them.

 

 

Reyes now pitches for Cleveland. All indications suggests that Motte will turn into a very reliable bullpen arm.

Different Reyes.

 

finish him.

[mcgoobs]

They wont be a .700 team by any means, but their offense is really, really good.

 

You mean right now it's really, really good. Unless you think Chris Duncan will stay a 1.021 OPS hitter, Molina an .882 OPS hitter, Brian Barden a 1.047 OPS hitter, etc etc

 

Chris Duncan: .362 BABIP

Yadier Molina: .348 BABIP

Brian Burden: .364 BABIP

 

Molina does have a 23.9% LD rate, but I can't see that being sustainable either.

[ELCABALLO45]

The cards won't keep playing .700 baseball, but yeah they can certinaly win the division.

[Fred Hornkohl]

The cards won't keep playing .700 baseball, but yeah they can certinaly win the division.

 

Bite your tongue !! :evil:

[XZero771679666304]

The cards won't keep playing .700 baseball, but yeah they can certinaly win the division.

 

I have no doubt they can. But I doubt they will.

[ManEatingTarp]

It's early.

The Cardinals have not played their worst baseball, and the Cubs have not played their best. My guess would be that it's going to be a tight race.

As one poster mentioned, the Cards are in a better spot to trade at the deadline this year, and with their farm system finally showing that it can produce, this won't be the same team at the end of the year. BW, it wouldn't shock me if they sign Sheets.

Wallace won't get traded because this is Glaus's last year under contract. Wallace will "probably" be the opening day starter at 3rd next year.

[Guest]

pujols' contract needs to be up soon so the cards have to pay him $30M a year or whatever instead of the bargain they're currently getting.

 

09:$16M, 10:$16M, 11:$16M club option ($5M buyout)

 

I wonder if that option gets picked up

 

eh $5M is pretty big for a buyout, they might as well just let him play it out.

 

Pujols will probably have a shiny new contract before the club option season begins.

[Guest]

25 games is really not a very good measuring device in predicting what will happen over a 162 game season.

 

The only bad teams the Cardinals haven't played so far are San Diego and San Francisco. Of their 25 games so far, they have played:

 

4 against Pittsburgh

3 agains Houston

3 against Arizona

3 against Atlanta

3 against Washington

 

Oh, and they played the Cubs 6 games when they were basically missing a significant portion of their roster.

 

I'd eat a Steve Kline game used ballcap if the Cardinals were a .700 win team after 162 games.

[ManEatingTarp]

25 games is really not a very good measuring device in predicting what will happen over a 162 game season.

 

The only bad teams the Cardinals haven't played so far are San Diego and San Francisco. Of their 25 games so far, they have played:

 

4 against Pittsburgh

3 agains Houston

3 against Arizona

3 against Atlanta

3 against Washington

 

Oh, and they played the Cubs 6 games when they were basically missing a significant portion of their roster.

 

I'd eat a Steve Kline game used ballcap if the Cardinals were a .700 win team after 162 games.

 

They also played (and swept) the Mets. Blaming or thanking the schedule can get kind of silly. Saying that this guy was hurt, or that a team lucked out by missing a stud pitcher in a 3 game series etc.

I try not to get to excited or frustrated by the standings till Memorial Day, and probably shouldn't till the All-Star break.

 

To show you how misleading somethings can be in the early goings, the Cubs on paper are the healthiest team in baseball. They've had the least amount of time by players spent on the DL.

[jersey cubs fan]

25 games is really not a very good measuring device in predicting what will happen over a 162 game season.

 

The only bad teams the Cardinals haven't played so far are San Diego and San Francisco. Of their 25 games so far, they have played:

 

4 against Pittsburgh

3 agains Houston

3 against Arizona

3 against Atlanta

3 against Washington

 

Oh, and they played the Cubs 6 games when they were basically missing a significant portion of their roster.

 

I'd eat a Steve Kline game used ballcap if the Cardinals were a .700 win team after 162 games.

 

They also played (and swept) the Mets. Blaming or thanking the schedule can get kind of silly. Saying that this guy was hurt, or that a team lucked out by missing a stud pitcher in a 3 game series etc.

I try not to get to excited or frustrated by the standings till Memorial Day, and probably shouldn't till the All-Star break.

 

To show you how misleading somethings can be in the early goings, the Cubs on paper are the healthiest team in baseball. They've had the least amount of time by players spent on the DL.

 

Using the Mets as an example of a good team they've played doesn't really help your argument. And your example about the DL is completely useless.

[ManEatingTarp]

25 games is really not a very good measuring device in predicting what will happen over a 162 game season.

 

The only bad teams the Cardinals haven't played so far are San Diego and San Francisco. Of their 25 games so far, they have played:

 

4 against Pittsburgh

3 agains Houston

3 against Arizona

3 against Atlanta

3 against Washington

 

Oh, and they played the Cubs 6 games when they were basically missing a significant portion of their roster.

 

I'd eat a Steve Kline game used ballcap if the Cardinals were a .700 win team after 162 games.

 

They also played (and swept) the Mets. Blaming or thanking the schedule can get kind of silly. Saying that this guy was hurt, or that a team lucked out by missing a stud pitcher in a 3 game series etc.

I try not to get to excited or frustrated by the standings till Memorial Day, and probably shouldn't till the All-Star break.

 

To show you how misleading somethings can be in the early goings, the Cubs on paper are the healthiest team in baseball. They've had the least amount of time by players spent on the DL.

 

Using the Mets as an example of a good team they've played doesn't really help your argument. And your example about the DL is completely useless.

 

Really? On paper the Mets have one of the best offensive teams in baseball. After they addressed their bullpen a lot of "experts" picked them to go to and maybe win the World Series this year. Sounds like a competitive team to me. If we used the same scale for the Cubs I could say they haven't played anybody of note either. Nobody knows what teams will or won't be above .500 at the end of the year, so it doesn't make much sense to say that the schedule is this way or that way in the first month.

 

My point about the DL is that you can skew things in any direction early in the year. The Cardinals split the first 6 games against a COMPLETELY healthy Cubs team. We both know that's not true.

[jersey cubs fan]

Really? On paper the Mets have one of the best offensive teams in baseball. After they addressed their bullpen a lot of "experts" picked them to go to and maybe win the World Series this year. Sounds like a competitive team to me. If we used the same scale for the Cubs I could say they haven't played anybody of note either. Nobody knows what teams will or won't be above .500 at the end of the year, so it doesn't make much sense to say that the schedule is this way or that way in the first month.

 

My point about the DL is that you can skew things in any direction early in the year. The Cardinals split the first 6 games against a COMPLETELY healthy Cubs team. We both know that's not true.

 

The Mets are a few games under .500 and a bit of a mess.

 

Since when do we track a team's DL lists statistically to determine their health? It's a pointless example.