Cub prospects in the news

[El Duderino]

BJax's K rate is pretty frightening, to be honest. 3 more today gives him 16 in 49 PA.

[ctcf]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

 

You can usually say the same thing about Kevin Goldstein as well.

 

that's mostly on twitter when fans of teams tweet him excitedly about some marginal prospect who happens to hit .500 for like a week.

 

He does certainly seem to enjoy it.

[KingCubsFan]

Actually, he put up a .297/.388/.551 line in 215 plate appearances for Iowa last year.

 

Oops.

 

While its significantly better, .297 isn't wow in the PCL either with that kind of K rate.

 

Not that I don't like Jackson, just curious as to what his ceiling is.

 

I don't think he's a superstar in the making, but he does a lot of things well enough that he should be a productive major league ballplayer. Someone once brought up Ray Lankford as a comp, which works pretty well in my opinion.

 

He could make a handful of All Star games in his career, but I think he's more of a building block than a cornerstone, if that makes sense.

If Vitters really has improved his defense enough to be average at 3B long term (hey, only one error so far!), then I think I'll feel better about being the only weirdo out there to rank Vitters higher than BJax.

Vitters has a lot more work to do compared to Jackson. His flurry of singles coupled with an increase in walks has been encouraging, but until he's able to put the whole package together for a while I'll still be suspicious.

[jersey cubs fan]

Everything Law writes is written in a tone that feeds into this "I'm smarter than you" and often "your team's prospect isn't good or as good as you think" persona. It's obnoxious and unnecessary, especially since he feels obligated to stick to those guns long after he's been proven wrong(see: Szczur).

 

Has he really been "proven" wrong about Szczur? He's shown enough to justify people being interested in him, but he's still very far away from being anything we can rely on.

[Guest]

It wasn't that he said Szczur wasn't good, it's that he repeatedly said his game profiled as the white Juan Pierre(17 HR in 8983 professional PAs) for his slaptastic approach when reports from other sources hinted at Szczur having pretty impressive BP power, and then hit 10 HR last year in two hitter neutral/unfriendly leagues.

[jersey cubs fan]

It wasn't that he said Szczur wasn't good, it's that he repeatedly said his game profiled as the white Juan Pierre(17 HR in 8983 professional PAs) for his slaptastic approach when reports from other sources hinted at Szczur having pretty impressive BP power, and then hit 10 HR last year in two hitter neutral/unfriendly leagues.

 

Ok, so the hyperbole didn't match up but we're still talking about a 22 year old who could easily flame out in A ball. That remains to be seen, but if that happens you could hardly justify saying the guy has been proven wrong, a handful of home runs notwithstanding.

[Guest]

Again, it's not about Szczur's success or lack thereof, it's that Law came up with a half baked observation on Szczur's game, and repeatedly stuck to that assertion even as the actual performance proved him wrong. No one's going to begrudge Keith Law for thinking that Szczur won't make it, but no one's going to respect what Keith Law has to say if he says that Szczur won't make it because he's a slap hitter.

[scarey]

Again, it's not about Szczur's success or lack thereof, it's that Law came up with a half baked observation on Szczur's game, and repeatedly stuck to that assertion even as the actual performance proved him wrong. No one's going to begrudge Keith Law for thinking that Szczur won't make it, but no one's going to respect what Keith Law has to say if he says that Szczur won't make it because he's a slap hitter.

 

 

Klaw: Matt Szczur has red hair.

Everyone else: Actually, he has black hair.

Klaw: No, it's red despite what you seem to think you know.

Everyone else: But... I've seen it. It's black.

Klaw: Red.

[Guest]

Back on the topic of Jackson, the comparison I've liked the most is Nick Swisher. College draftees with selective approaches that grade out well in most areas(power, speed, defense, intangibles, etc). They've followed similar paths through the minors thus far, both reaching AAA in their 3rd pro season(Jackson's wasn't a full season, but he's also a year younger). Along the way, They've had very similar walk and K rates, and Jackson has been more productive due to having a better hit tool and AVG. Where you see some deviation is in the AAA results so far. Swisher maintained and slightly lowered his K rate in AAA as a 23 year old, and boosted his walk rate and IsoP. Considering he's a better hitter to this point, I don't think Jackson needs a sub-20% K rate in order to have his performance translate to MLB, but I do think he's probably in for trouble if he can't recognize pitches well enough to avoid a 30+ K%. This month hasn't been that great in that aspect, but if you see some progress so that he's hovering around 25% by June/July, and I'm not going to have a ton of worries about him busting because of that K rate.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Back on the topic of Jackson, the comparison I've liked the most is Nick Swisher. College draftees with selective approaches that grade out well in most areas(power, speed, defense, intangibles, etc). They've followed similar paths through the minors thus far, both reaching AAA in their 3rd pro season(Jackson's wasn't a full season, but he's also a year younger). Along the way, They've had very similar walk and K rates, and Jackson has been more productive due to having a better hit tool and AVG. Where you see some deviation is in the AAA results so far. Swisher maintained and slightly lowered his K rate in AAA as a 23 year old, and boosted his walk rate and IsoP. Considering he's a better hitter to this point, I don't think Jackson needs a sub-20% K rate in order to have his performance translate to MLB, but I do think he's probably in for trouble if he can't recognize pitches well enough to avoid a 30+ K%. This month hasn't been that great in that aspect, but if you see some progress so that he's hovering around 25% by June/July, and I'm not going to have a ton of worries about him busting because of that K rate.

 

Whoa interesting comp....Definitely agreed that if Jackson lowers the K rate by ~10% by midseason then he's a whole lot more likeable. A Swisher who can play CF would be a pretty valuable player, and I do think Jackson's ceiling is that of the 4 WAR well rounded OF (much like Swisher).

 

Tools wise it's less of a reach than my Upton one, and I like going college draftee to college draftee better as well.

 

Another prospect I'd like to figure out is Trey McNutt....2010 he seemed like Batman or some other ghost in the night who was spoken about but not seen...2011 he was seen, but exposed would be the better word...now in 2012 it would be nice to get some answers...What kind of velocity should we look forward too? Curveball or slider? Will he be a starter or closer? Does he have a changeup? How much more mechanical alterations will be made?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Wellington Castillo made this weeks Baseball Prospectus 10 Pack

 

 

Wellington Castillo, C, Cubs (Triple-A Iowa)

The Cubs are not a very good baseball team, but they're not expected to be. This is a team in the nascent period of what will be a long rebuilding process. While Cubs fans seem preoccupied with what first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Brett Jackson are doing at Triple-A (and both are doing well), don't forget about Castillo, especially since regular catcher Geovany Soto is one of the club's better trade chips when it comes to building for the future. With three hits in all three of his games over the weekend—and home runs in two of them—Castillo is doing his best to make the front office more comfortable in jump-starting that rebuild.

 

Don't know how necessary it was the start off with The Cubs aren't a very good baseball team, but whatever.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Wellington Castillo made this weeks Baseball Prospectus 10 Pack

 

 

Wellington Castillo, C, Cubs (Triple-A Iowa)

The Cubs are not a very good baseball team, but they're not expected to be. This is a team in the nascent period of what will be a long rebuilding process. While Cubs fans seem preoccupied with what first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Brett Jackson are doing at Triple-A (and both are doing well), don't forget about Castillo, especially since regular catcher Geovany Soto is one of the club's better trade chips when it comes to building for the future. With three hits in all three of his games over the weekend—and home runs in two of them—Castillo is doing his best to make the front office more comfortable in jump-starting that rebuild.

 

Don't know how necessary it was the start off with The Cubs aren't a very good baseball team, but whatever.

 

While I'm wondering where this hype is coming from, I really liked the little I saw of Castillo during his callup. Much better swing than I expected...IIRC he hit a couple of good balls against the Astros that left me impressed.

[Little Slide Rooter]

He was pretty well regarded at one point, but then hit somewhat of a snag, and combined with the fact that people were thinking that Soto would be our starting catcher for years to come he was kind of forgotten.

[sneakypower]

not sure where to put this, but BB Prospectus has an updated stats page now for our (preseason) top 20 prospects and the top 101 prospects in baseball

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_11/index.php?year=2012&org=chn

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_101/

[imb]

not sure where to put this, but BB Prospectus has an updated stats page now for our (preseason) top 20 prospects and the top 101 prospects in baseball

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_11/index.php?year=2012&org=chn

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_101/

 

Oh my god I love this.

[Guest]

not sure where to put this, but BB Prospectus has an updated stats page now for our (preseason) top 20 prospects and the top 101 prospects in baseball

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_11/index.php?year=2012&org=chn

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_101/

 

Oh my god I love this.

No Rizzo or other late acquisitions.

[imb]

not sure where to put this, but BB Prospectus has an updated stats page now for our (preseason) top 20 prospects and the top 101 prospects in baseball

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_11/index.php?year=2012&org=chn

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_101/

 

Oh my god I love this.

No Rizzo or other late acquisitions.

 

i was talking more about the top 101 list.

[SouthSideRyan]

How's it going Hak-Ju?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

He was pretty well regarded at one point, but then hit somewhat of a snag, and combined with the fact that people were thinking that Soto would be our starting catcher for years to come he was kind of forgotten.

 

Yeah Castillo has been around a while....I remember reading about him in a whiiile back...He pretty much sounded like another Soto, in a good way. He looks like a better athlete...

[Guest]

Billy (Chicago): How concerned should I be about Brett Jackson's strikeout rate? Is he just pressing or is something wrong?

 

Jim Callis: Nobody should panic about anything this early in the season unless it's injury-related. Jackson is always going to strike out—he fanned 138 times last year—but he's not going to K in 40 percent of his AB. He's going to be a solid player for the Cubs.

[Guancous]

not sure where to put this, but BB Prospectus has an updated stats page now for our (preseason) top 20 prospects and the top 101 prospects in baseball

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_11/index.php?year=2012&org=chn

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_101/

 

Oh my god I love this.

No Rizzo or other late acquisitions.

 

Rizzo got traded after the Cubs Top 11 and before the Padres list.

[Guest]

not sure where to put this, but BB Prospectus has an updated stats page now for our (preseason) top 20 prospects and the top 101 prospects in baseball

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_11/index.php?year=2012&org=chn

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/stats/top_101/

 

Oh my god I love this.

No Rizzo or other late acquisitions.

 

Rizzo got traded after the Cubs Top 11 and before the Padres list.

understood, but for an in-season look at things it would be nice to see the late additions.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

From a Baseball Prospectus earlier this afternoon (apologies in advance for the crappy question, I fired it off quickly without much thought):

 

 

Britt (New York, NY): What kind of ceiling do you predict for Brett Jackson (CF) of the Cubs' system? I've heard predictions ranging from Drew Stubbs to Ray Lankford. Does he have All-Star potential in center, or should I be concerned about his woefully high strikeout rate?

 

Daniel Rathman: The strikeout rate is definitely a concern, but he has enough secondary skills to be valuable even as a .250 hitter. Drew Stubbs seems an inapt comparison because so much of Stubbs' value is tied to his outstanding defense. The big question for me is whether he can stick in center. If Jackson has to move to right, that would obviously put more pressure on his bat, and might only make him a second-division type.

[Guest]

Travis (Chicago) Thoughts on Baez's maturity issues so far?

 

Klaw (1:59 PM) I see no evidence of "maturity issues." Massive overreaction.

[Guest]

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs (Triple-A Iowa): 2-for-3, 2 HR (7), 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.

 

Make no mistake about it, Rizzo is raking, as after last night's big game he's now at .393/.433/.786 in 14 games. Just as interesting are the scouting reports that indicate Rizzo has addressed some of the bad habits he got into with his swing last year. This has led to an outcry from all corners of the interwebs for Rizzo to be in the big leagues, and now. Two words: Calm down.

1. It's easy to forget what happened in 2011, when Rizzo had the best numbers in the minors and then turned into the National League's version of Adam Dunn when summoned to the big leagues. The Cubs don't want a repeat of that and don't want to call up Rizzo until they are assured he can stay up for good.

2. Calling him up is going to require a lot of deck chair re-arranging. Bryan LaHair is hitting quite well, and there's nowhere to put him should the Cubs recall Rizzo (and no, the Cubs are not just going to release Alfonso Soriano).

3. The Cubs are not going to complete for a playoff spot this year, so what's the rush?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16548

 

On twitter last night, Goldstein mentioned that the bolded is Rizzo shortening his swing this year.