Cub prospects in the news

[jersey cubs fan]

I can't imagine a scenario where LaHair hits 280 in the majors for more than 60 ABs.

 

He's at 59 AB now, and he's hitting .288/.377/.885

 

Since the corner outfield market in free agency is dismal this year, I'd be okay heading into next year with a Soriano/LaHair platoon at LF, once you merge their lefty righty splits and salary into a mean average. Spend the money on superstar 1B and CJ Wilson.

 

The problem with that idea is Lahair would play a lot.

[RammyFanny]

Don't know where to put it, but the insider on PSD mentioned that Simpson was pitching with some sort of fracture in his elbow this year.

[KingCubsFan]

Don't know where to put it, but the insider on PSD mentioned that Simpson was pitching with some sort of fracture in his elbow this year.

Good thing we brought back Fleita!

[toonsterwu]

Saw this in TCR's comments section - Keith Law chat with some Cubs talk

 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/40713/mlb-insider-keith-law

 

Justin (Chicago)

Jr Lake a future everyday 2B?

 

Klaw (1:13 PM)

I'm not giving up on him at SS. Bigger question is whether he can learn to work the count.

 

Gray (Chicago)

 

Will the velocity shown by Andrew Cashner the other day make the Cubs re-think their plans to utilize him as a starter?

 

Klaw (1:15 PM)

I don't know, but I'm not sure how you can start him in 2012 after he missed pretty much all of 2011. You would want to use him in relief if only to gradually build his arm strength back up.

Jay (Chicago)

 

 

Theo's free agent history is hit and miss, so should Cubs fans be most excited about his ability to develop and maintain a quality farm system?

Klaw

(1:20 PM)

 

 

Yes - and more broadly his ability to turn the Cubs' baseball ops department into a process-oriented, professionally run organization. You can't run a baseball team the way they were run 20 or 30 years ago. It's a business now, one where smart decisions based on sound processes are necessary and innovation is increasingly critical.

 

Scott (St. Louis )

 

 

Klaw, surely Brett Jackson (as has been rumored) is too much compensation to give up for Theo Epstein. Would you even consider that?

Klaw

(1:22 PM)

 

 

Yes. If you think Theo is going to turn this organization around, you wouldn't give up six years of a non-star prospect?

 

BassmanUW (Chicago)

 

 

Is Josh Vitters continuing to look very Josh Vitters-ish in the AFL(pretty swing that makes a lot of contact but swinging at everything and playing bad defense)?

Klaw

(1:25 PM)

 

 

Yep.

Adam (Chicago)

 

 

KLaw- Have you seen Trey McNutt pitch yet? The Cubs thought higher of him than Chris Archer (to Tampa in the Garza deal). I'm wondering the upside for McNutt after his injury plagued 2011.

Klaw

(1:27 PM)

 

 

Today. I believe I mentioned that in the intro.

 

He said he's going to tweet about Hultzen vs. McNutt, so I'll go see if anything is there.

 

Oh, he did seem to take a minor shot at Pujols - said something about his "listed age". I don't recall there ever being much concern about Pujols age not being legitimate, but I guess it's the day and age we are in. Perhaps he didn't mean much by it.

[Guest]

There have been grumblings about Pujols fabricating his age for some time but it seems unlikely that such a high profile person could get away with it given how much more thorough things are post-9/11.

[Bruno7481]

From Goldstein's latest Future Shock:

 

Bryan LaHair, 1B, Cubs (VEN Navegantes): 4-for-4, 2B, 2 HR (2), 2 R, 3 RBI. I generally abhor 'Free Player X' movements; but I'm on board with this one. The guy can hit.

[toonsterwu]

I don't think anyone has posted this yet. If so, I apologize, but today's chat with Keith Law at ESPN (Cubs-related). A lot Theo related stuff, a lot repetitive questions.

 

Travis (Chicago)

 

 

Junior Lake's arm on the scouting scale?

Klaw

(1:08 PM)

 

 

I could go 7 on that. But his lack of instincts on both sides of the ball is scary. I'm not sure he can stay in the infield, and his favorite pitch to hit is the first one of the at bat.

 

Ryan (Dayton) [via mobile]

 

 

To clarify, if the Theo deal goes through and he subsequently hires Jed hoyer as GM, who would be making the baseball decisions for the cubs?

Klaw

(1:09 PM)

 

 

I would expect Theo to remain involved in baseball decisions. Those guys (and McLeod) worked well together in Boston so I don't expect the friction you might normally anticipate when the President is dabbling in baseball ops.

 

Adam (Chicago) [via mobile]

 

 

KLaw- Last week, you watched Trey McNutt...anything for Cubs fans to look forward to from him?

Klaw

(1:10 PM)

 

 

Or Red Sox fans? He's a good athlete with arm strength who'll flash an above-average breaking ball, but he's not repeating his delivery at all, not the arm path, not the release point. Fair amount of work to do there but with upside of a 2-3 starter if you can get him some consistency.

 

Tom (Madison, WI)

 

 

I've heard Jackson, McNutt and Szczur won't be part of the Theo compensation. Is there anyone left in the Cubs weak system to get remotely excited about?

Klaw

(1:18 PM)

 

 

Cubs system isn't "weak," but it's bottom-heavy. Szczur's an extra outfielder anyway, so I wouldn't be thrilled with him as a return for Boston. I'd be interested in Cashner.

 

Dan (Chicago)

 

 

I've heard the reports about Andrew Cashner hitting triple digits this fall but more importantly how's he spotting his fastball and how does the offspeed stuff look??? would you give him another shot to see if his arm can hold up in the rotation considering the lack of SP in the cubs organization top to bottom?

Klaw

(1:20 PM)

 

 

Changeup is plus. Can't put him in the rotation in 2012, IMO, because you'd be pushing his shoulder too far. Let him relieve next year, work on building up strength around the joint, and reassess after the season.

 

Dougie (Ridge)

 

 

Junior Lake 9 for 9 on steal attempts so far in the AFL.. Future leadoff hitter or more middle of the order if he can figure it out on defense?

Klaw

(1:29 PM)

 

 

Neither. I guess he's replacing Terdoslavich as this year's "most overrated prospect based on a tiny AFL sample."

 

Tom (Chi)

 

 

Help those who are uninformed (me): If Theo is Prez, but Hoyer isGM with authority for baseball decisions, what exactly does Theo do all day? Play Angry Birds?

Klaw

(1:37 PM)

 

 

I hear he's more of a Carcassonne guy.

 

Brian (Indianapolis)

 

 

What do you see Brett Jackson's upside being? Should the Cubs have pulled him off the table so soon?

Klaw

(1:41 PM)

 

 

Solid average regular, below-average contact rates/OBP buoyed by position/defense.

 

Chris (Chicago)

 

 

Hey Keith, here's one more Cubs question for you: who do you see as a more realistic solution as the future at 3B, Vitters or Baez? I know Baez is a SS but from what I've read he'll be moving over the third. Thanks.

Klaw

(1:45 PM)

 

 

Baez. If I'm Theo/Jed/JMc, that's the guy I'm most excited to have in the system when I walk in the door.

 

Tom (Chi)

 

 

Thanks for the always appreciated sarcasm, but I was serious when I said I'm uninformed on his potential duties (Although I shouldn't have set you up with the Angry Birds comment, that was a layup for Klaw snark).

Klaw

(1:45 PM)

 

 

That depends in large part on the split of duties he and Hoyer agree on - but the President also oversees sales, marketing, corporate sponsorships, possibly stadium ops, and so on.

 

Steven (Kingsport)

 

 

Jackson, McNutt and Szczur for Theo? If I am Ricketts, I do all three and walk away laughing at my good fortune. Heck I'd throw in Vitters just to be charitable. One of Theo's strengths is surrounding himself with good people and trusting what they tell him so if they get Hoyer and McLeod too, WOW, just tremendous intellectual capital.

Klaw

(1:48 PM)

 

 

I agree. These prospects are getting wildly overrated. McNutt is the one guy there with some star potential, but he is low enough probability that I'd be fine parting with him to get one of the game's strongest front offices.

 

Bryan (MA)

 

 

The always reliable Alex Speier is reporting that McNutt is part of the Theo comp package. If that's true, where would that put McNutt on the Sox' top prospects list?

Klaw

(1:54 PM)

 

 

I think I said top 10 yesterday on twitter; probably back of the top 10 is more accurate.

 

Gavin (San Diego)

 

 

Is it a given that McLeod is following Hoyer to Chicago? I'm just trying to understand what is going through Moorad's dense skull right now.

Klaw

(1:55 PM)

 

 

I believe so, yes.

 

Matt (Chicago)

 

 

If McNutt does become a #2 starter is it worth it?

Klaw

(1:56 PM)

 

 

Can't judge him on what he becomes without considering the probability he'd become that when the deal was struck. If someone gives you stock options that could be worth $1 million in a year but are 98% likely to be worthless, those options are worth $20,000 today, even if they turn out to be worth the full million next year.

 

Dan (Atlantic City)

 

 

Considering Matt Szczur played his high school and college ball in the Northeast - and that he split his time between football and baseball in college - do you think you could be selling his potential a little short?

Klaw

(1:59 PM)

 

 

No, not unless he completely overhauls his swing. It's mechanical, not experience.

[mul21]

Man, he hates him some Szczur.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Does anyone else see the comparisons between Lake and Soriano?

 

- Minor league SS.

- Cannon arms.

- Free swingers.

- Trouble with breaking balls.

- Lots of K's.

- Power.

- Speed.

- Middling D despite the athleticism.

- Doesn't walk.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Man, he hates him some Szczur.

 

He doesn't seem to like any of our guys.

[Guest]

Man, he hates him some Szczur.

 

He doesn't seem to like any of our guys.

 

That's just his bent, he has that tone with any opinion he gives. The Szczur thing is just pride at this point. Let's keep saying "his swing won't let him hit for any power" and ignore the guy hit 10 HR in less than 500 PA's in 2 pitcher's leagues.

[toonsterwu]

To be fair, I do think Szczur will need to change his swing if he wants more pop, but that said, Keith Law's comparisons are still off.

 

I have to say, though, that was as positive as Law has been about our system. His individual perspective on a few guys might not be high, but note what he said ... Cubs system isn't "weak", it's bottom heavy. Granted, Cubs fans here and elsewhere have been saying that for awhile, so it's nothing new to us.

[seattlecub]

I think it's worth noting that law has been consistently saying that everybody should be higher on Dunston Jr.

[jersey cubs fan]

Considering Matt Szczur played his high school and college ball in the Northeast - and that he split his time between football and baseball in college - do you think you could be selling his potential a little short?

Klaw

(1:59 PM)

 

 

No, not unless he completely overhauls his swing. It's mechanical, not experience.

 

Wouldn't a lack of baseball only experience, specifically time to work on it with trained professional teachers, contribute to mechanical swing issues?

[videographer]

Does anyone else see the comparisons between Lake and Soriano?

 

- Minor league SS.

- Cannon arms.

- Free swingers.

- Trouble with breaking balls.

- Lots of K's.

- Power.

- Speed.

- Middling D despite the athleticism.

- Doesn't walk.

 

The above variables can be plugged into a number of prospects across the minor leagues (including Hispanic heritage). However, Lake's status as a ML prospect pales to Soriano at the same stage. I think one of the most important differences between the two is family background and upbringing. From what I have read, Lake comes from a very poor upbringing and is stubborn to instruction. I have read that Soriano has relatively strong family support and (I would imagine) followed instruction at an early age.

 

The above comparison is apt at pointing out how small differences can make a world of difference in the success of a player. Both Lake and Soriano are comparable in baseball tools, size and athletic ability - the scouts' matrix. However, maturity and wiliness to take instruction in a structured environment can separate young, unformed players quickly. Castro vs. Lake, no comparison now, but 4 years ago they were indistinguishable.

 

Although Junior Lake has taken a strong step in his development this year, the holes in his game leave serious doubt on his future success. If he ended up being a poor man's ML Soriano, he would far surpass expectations. He could end up being a lessor version of Shawn Dunston. With better defense, I think his ceiling is Jose Hernandez with better speed and a career as a utility player/bottom-half team starter.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The above variables can be plugged into a number of prospects across the minor leagues (including Hispanic heritage). However, Lake's status as a ML prospect pales to Soriano at the same stage. I think one of the most important differences between the two is family background and upbringing. From what I have read, Lake comes from a very poor upbringing and is stubborn to instruction. I have read that Soriano has relatively strong family support and (I would imagine) followed instruction at an early age.

 

The above comparison is apt at pointing out how small differences can make a world of difference in the success of a player. Both Lake and Soriano are comparable in baseball tools, size and athletic ability - the scouts' matrix. However, maturity and wiliness to take instruction in a structured environment can separate young, unformed players quickly. Castro vs. Lake, no comparison now, but 4 years ago they were indistinguishable.

 

Although Junior Lake has taken a strong step in his development this year, the holes in his game leave serious doubt on his future success. If he ended up being a poor man's ML Soriano, he would far surpass expectations. He could end up being a lessor version of Shawn Dunston. With better defense, I think his ceiling is Jose Hernandez with better speed and a career as a utility player/bottom-half team starter.

 

No doubt, though I could say that Soriano was also older and had already played pro ball in Japan IIRC.

 

I agree with your analysis overall...I just found their parallels interesting. I think that right now he's the closest to a Soriano type in the organization because of the scouting parallels, but I also agree with your conclusion that his ceiling probably isn't as high as many believed Soriano's to be when he was a prospect. Your points about background and small differences are ones I can agree with.

[Guest]

I thought it was interesting to see how Jim Callis views the Cubs system since he does the Cubs top 30 lists every year. He rates Welington much higher than I'm sure any of us would.

 

@jimcallisBA: Jackson, Szczur, McNutt, Castillo, Rhee. 2011 #mlbdraft guys can't be dealt. @l2uff: if you're #cubs who are you 5 untouchables? #redsox

[toonsterwu]

I thought it was interesting to see how Jim Callis views the Cubs system since he does the Cubs top 30 lists every year. He rates Welington much higher than I'm sure any of us would.

 

@jimcallisBA: Jackson, Szczur, McNutt, Castillo, Rhee. 2011 #mlbdraft guys can't be dealt. @l2uff: if you're #cubs who are you 5 untouchables? #redsox

 

Wow, fascinating. I thought AzPhil was the only one that liked Castillo more than me (still have him hanging in that 14-16 slot for me). AzPhil still believes Castillo will be a starting backstop that can hit 20 HR's, I think (or something like that, recall seeing that in his comments somewhere).

 

Oh .. .and Rhee is untouchable? Interesting, I thought I was high on Rhee, but untouchable?

[javy knows my name]

I think I'd like to punch Keith Law in the face

[Guest]

I thought it was interesting to see how Jim Callis views the Cubs system since he does the Cubs top 30 lists every year. He rates Welington much higher than I'm sure any of us would.

 

@jimcallisBA: Jackson, Szczur, McNutt, Castillo, Rhee. 2011 #mlbdraft guys can't be dealt. @l2uff: if you're #cubs who are you 5 untouchables? #redsox

 

Wow, fascinating. I thought AzPhil was the only one that liked Castillo more than me (still have him hanging in that 14-16 slot for me). AzPhil still believes Castillo will be a starting backstop that can hit 20 HR's, I think (or something like that, recall seeing that in his comments somewhere).

 

Oh .. .and Rhee is untouchable? Interesting, I thought I was high on Rhee, but untouchable?

 

The question is who are the 5 most untouchable prospects. Basically another way of asking who their 5 most valuable prospects are.

[Rob]

I thought it was interesting to see how Jim Callis views the Cubs system since he does the Cubs top 30 lists every year. He rates Welington much higher than I'm sure any of us would.

 

@jimcallisBA: Jackson, Szczur, McNutt, Castillo, Rhee. 2011 #mlbdraft guys can't be dealt. @l2uff: if you're #cubs who are you 5 untouchables? #redsox

 

Wow, fascinating. I thought AzPhil was the only one that liked Castillo more than me (still have him hanging in that 14-16 slot for me). AzPhil still believes Castillo will be a starting backstop that can hit 20 HR's, I think (or something like that, recall seeing that in his comments somewhere).

 

Oh .. .and Rhee is untouchable? Interesting, I thought I was high on Rhee, but untouchable?

 

The question is who are the 5 most untouchable prospects. Basically another way of asking who their 5 most valuable prospects are.

 

Of the non-2011 draftees and IFAs. I'm sure Baez would have popped up in there for certain otherwise.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I'm not a fan of giving up Castillo for compensation either. That'd be overpaying. He might be in my top 10 Cubs prospects, because he's close to the big leagues and can hit. I do think he can hit too...only 24 too...completely understand why Callis named him.

 

I'm starting to rethink on Rhee too...I think I'm sleeping on him lately with toonster's campaign, a few old scouting reports, and now this Callis thing. Alot of it is the old scouting reports...He was more touted when first signed than I remembered him to be...Sounds like the whole mid-90's fastball thing might be mostly legit and everything. I could see him being amongst next year's breakouts in the system now that I'm clued in.

[toonsterwu]

I used to think I was higher on Castillo than most, but man, even accounting for draft picks and international signees ... Welington Castillo as the 5th or 6th best prospect in the system? Granted, after the top few, there's a gigantic clump of guys. I see Raisin tweeted him and asked if that's an early preview of the non-draftees portion, and he basically said yes, and it's hard to imagine Vogelbach being ranked that high, leaving Baez and Maples as the two guys with a chance of going ahead (well, Baez is definitely ahead).

 

All that said, "grade-wise", I guess I don't have Castillo all that different from a few guys I have slotted ahead, so may come down to eye of the beholder, and some sort of positional/level acknowledgment. Going to be curious to see Callis' list. I have a feeling BA will likely be higher on the Cubs system than most.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not a fan of giving up Castillo for compensation either. That'd be overpaying. He might be in my top 10 Cubs prospects, because he's close to the big leagues and can hit. I do think he can hit too...only 24 too...completely understand why Callis named him.

 

I'm starting to rethink on Rhee too...I think I'm sleeping on him lately with toonster's campaign, a few old scouting reports, and now this Callis thing. Alot of it is the old scouting reports...He was more touted when first signed than I remembered him to be...Sounds like the whole mid-90's fastball thing might be mostly legit and everything. I could see him being amongst next year's breakouts in the system now that I'm clued in.

 

I guess, the one thing with Rhee that is fair game is this - he only had a strong half season. Granted, it was the 2nd half, which is why there was a level of optimism, but he does need to pick it up for more than just half a year. Slider does need to make improvements, but I've heard from folks that the mid-90's is legit (I mean, we aren't talking consistently gunning 95+ as a starter, more like consistently in that 93/94 area without it seeming like he's reaching back). When BA posted that mid-90's in the chat, I was surprised, as I only saw low 90's early in the season.

 

The thing that I'm most excited about, as it relates to Rhee, is that he was consistently working 6 or more late in the year. That's honestly been as big a concern for me as anything - he's not the biggest guy. Assuming no McNutt in the Red Sox deal, and most indications are no as of now, that's going to be a fascinating rotiation to follow in AA (potentially) - McNutt/Antigua/Rhee. There are actually some folks who saw Antigua late in the year that are higher on him than Rhee (heard a couple reports of 92/93 on Antigua on a more consistent basis), but it's just so hard for me to rank Antigua higher considering the odd season he had in regards to the demotion/split-time in the pen.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I used to think I was higher on Castillo than most, but man, even accounting for draft picks and international signees ... Welington Castillo as the 5th or 6th best prospect in the system? Granted, after the top few, there's a gigantic clump of guys. I see Raisin tweeted him and asked if that's an early preview of the non-draftees portion, and he basically said yes, and it's hard to imagine Vogelbach being ranked that high, leaving Baez and Maples as the two guys with a chance of going ahead (well, Baez is definitely ahead).

 

All that said, "grade-wise", I guess I don't have Castillo all that different from a few guys I have slotted ahead, so may come down to eye of the beholder, and some sort of positional/level acknowledgment. Going to be curious to see Callis' list. I have a feeling BA will likely be higher on the Cubs system than most.

 

It's more than that. A 24 year old C prospect who can hit, and Castillo has a good swing and possibly even decent approach shown at the AAA level, has to be considered an asset. If he was in say the Red Sox system or Yankees system or even the new hot one, the Blue Jays, he'd be taken way more seriously. Though it really would help if he didn't have his strong bat season in the PCL...

 

After all that, I'm very into the idea of trading Castillo for a big league talent. I think Clevenger is closer to what a backup "should be" anyway, and Castillo's bat might get more of a chance somewhere else.