Leadoff....Maybe not Soriano?

[XZero771679666304]

just think, that post could've been made without all of the smugness and condescension and it would be just as valid and probably more respected.

 

I'm not usually one to defend Meph, but Dex was asking for it.

 

 

And it is a very valid and compelling argument, even if the data pool isn't very deep. I am concerned about Kosuke, but I am far from ready to jump on the panic wagon and label him a bust. But only time will tell.

 

I guess I was asking for it, but he brought it himsel by basically telling IMB he was being foolish for wanting to see if Kosuke can actually hit before giving him the leadoff spot... as if that's so unreasonable

 

When the alternative may be Aaron Miles, it might be unreasonable.

[imb]

just think, that post could've been made without all of the smugness and condescension and it would be just as valid and probably more respected.

 

I'm not usually one to defend Meph, but Dex was asking for it.

 

 

And it is a very valid and compelling argument, even if the data pool isn't very deep. I am concerned about Kosuke, but I am far from ready to jump on the panic wagon and label him a bust. But only time will tell.

 

I guess I was asking for it, but he brought it himsel by basically telling IMB he was being foolish for wanting to see if Kosuke can actually hit before giving him the leadoff spot... as if that's so unreasonable

 

When the alternative may be Aaron Miles, it might be unreasonable.

 

why is the alternative aaron miles? we already know that soriano can hit well (compared to miles, especially) in the leadoff spot. What's the sense in moving him so we can make sure fukudome gets more at bats?

 

i've said all along that fukudome isn't as bad as he was last year and i've pointed out at least a half-dozen times that japanese players take a season to acclimate, but then again, the ones that have succeeded in the MLB have never flopped as hard as he did last year. So pointing at Matsui and saying "see?" doesn't really cut it for me.

 

edit

 

jesus christ, aaron miles out ops'd fukudome last year. man, he sucked

[17 Seconds]

just think, that post could've been made without all of the smugness and condescension and it would be just as valid and probably more respected.

 

I'm not usually one to defend Meph, but Dex was asking for it.

 

 

And it is a very valid and compelling argument, even if the data pool isn't very deep. I am concerned about Kosuke, but I am far from ready to jump on the panic wagon and label him a bust. But only time will tell.

 

I guess I was asking for it, but he brought it himsel by basically telling IMB he was being foolish for wanting to see if Kosuke can actually hit before giving him the leadoff spot... as if that's so unreasonable

 

When the alternative may be Aaron Miles, it might be unreasonable.

 

Why does it have to be one of those 2?

[wvcbxl]

jesus christ, aaron miles out ops'd fukudome last year. man, he sucked

 

They both did last year.

 

Meph made a rational argument why there's still hope for Fukudome to turn it around, but his post was also laced with emotional lanuage because personal bickering seems to have replaced rational argumentation far too often on this board.

 

The updated member guidelines intend to fix this problem - may I suggest everyone reads them and posts accordingly.

Threads like this one can only gain in quality by doing so.

[17 Seconds]

I think we're all agreeing that Meph made a good argument and we all agree there's a good chance that Fukudome gets better. The problem is Meph didn't say "there's still hope" for Fukudome. He flat out said he's a good hitter and basically that we're stupid for even questioning that it's anything but a foregone conclusion that Fukudome will be good this season.

[Chuck_Cubs1]

Give me ths guy with a little magic in his bat and thats big Alfonzo Soriano.

 

I like my leadoffers like my backgammon: Always bet on black!

[17 Seconds]

please post here more often

[TruffleShuffle]

lolllllll

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think we're all agreeing that Meph made a good argument and we all agree there's a good chance that Fukudome gets better. The problem is Meph didn't say "there's still hope" for Fukudome. He flat out said he's a good hitter and basically that we're stupid for even questioning that it's anything but a foregone conclusion that Fukudome will be good this season.

 

If Fukudome does what we got him to do, he'd be ideal as a number 2 guy, with Theriot as the leadoff.

 

However, at this point, Im more worried about the number 3 spot, which is supposed to be your overall best hitter. Sorry, D Lee doesnt fit the bill anymore. Im not saying Lees washed up, hed be a great 5 or 6 hitter for any team, but number 3 should be Bradley or Ramirez.

[Mephistopheles]

I agree that Kosuke is probably going to bounce back in some fashion, but where was this tempered projection for how he'd need to adjust to 2 seamers last year?

 

I did tell you about this on April 4th, 2008.

And then I brought it up again on May 26th, 2008.

Edited February 17, 2009 by Mephistopheles

[Mephistopheles]

I think we're all agreeing that Meph made a good argument and we all agree there's a good chance that Fukudome gets better. The problem is Meph didn't say "there's still hope" for Fukudome. He flat out said he's a good hitter and basically that we're stupid for even questioning that it's anything but a foregone conclusion that Fukudome will be good this season.

 

You still didn't read it. I basically said why it takes awhile to adjust. I said given his success in Japan we shouldn't EXPECT him to be the first player to fail in their translations and that we should EXPECT rapid improvement pretty quickly and I EXPECT him to hit .290/.390/.440 or something like that.

 

The expected level of something is not a foregone conclusion, it's the damn middle. I always say what to expect, not what will happen. Half the time something worse than what you expect will happen, half the time something better than what you expect will happen.

[apete6]

I think we're all agreeing that Meph made a good argument and we all agree there's a good chance that Fukudome gets better. The problem is Meph didn't say "there's still hope" for Fukudome. He flat out said he's a good hitter and basically that we're stupid for even questioning that it's anything but a foregone conclusion that Fukudome will be good this season.

 

If Fukudome does what we got him to do, he'd be ideal as a number 2 guy, with Theriot as the leadoff.

 

However, at this point, Im more worried about the number 3 spot, which is supposed to be your overall best hitter. Sorry, D Lee doesnt fit the bill anymore. Im not saying Lees washed up, hed be a great 5 or 6 hitter for any team, but number 3 should be Bradley or Ramirez.

 

Wow, that's a good point. Fuku, Theriot, DLee is a WEAK 1-3. None of your 4 best hitters (Soriano, Ramirez, Bradley, and Soto) would even bat in the first inning a majority of the time.

 

Why move Soriano now? If you do, what about this:

 

Fuku

Lee

Soriano

Bradley

Ramirez

Soto

Fontenot

Theriot

 

Why can't we just trade for Brian Roberts? Oh ya, we wouldn't give up Rich Hill and Felix Pie last winter. Forgot about that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree that Kosuke is probably going to bounce back in some fashion, but where was this tempered projection for how he'd need to adjust to 2 seamers last year?

 

I did tell you about this on April 4th, 2008.

And then I brought it up again on May 26th, 2008.

 

Can you link me to it? I can't find it by searching your posts for Kosuke or Fukudome.

[CubinNY]

I EXPECT him to hit .290/.390/.440 or something like that.

Is that with the platoon? If he's platooned I think that's a pretty good projection. If he's not I think he's more like .270/.350/.400.

 

It's not just the 2-seamer that gets Fukudome, it's the low and away slider outside of the zone.

[nolanwood]

I agree that Kosuke is probably going to bounce back in some fashion, but where was this tempered projection for how he'd need to adjust to 2 seamers last year?

 

I did tell you about this on April 4th, 2008.

And then I brought it up again on May 26th, 2008.

 

 

That's odd...

 

When I search your posts it shows a gap between Sun, Mar 01 2008 and Sun, Jul 20 2008.

[Mephistopheles]

I EXPECT him to hit .290/.390/.440 or something like that.

Is that with the platoon? If he's platooned I think that's a pretty good projection. If he's not I think he's more like .270/.350/.400.

 

It's not just the 2-seamer that gets Fukudome, it's the low and away slider outside of the zone.

 

So you're predicting no improvement? That's not right, sorry. Anyways, Fukudome had no problems with sliders of any sort last season. His BABIP on sliders was well over .400 and he only whiffed on 27% of sliders he saw. Those are both well above average rates. For comparison, Albert Pujols' BABIP on sliders was 80 points lower and Chipper Jones whiffed as often. Fukudome's not any worse than anyone else at hitting sliders. That simply wasn't the problem with him last year no matter what your selective memory saw.

 

That's odd...

 

When I search your posts it shows a gap between Sun, Mar 01 2008 and Sun, Jul 20 2008.

 

I was in Tim's Lou-House.

[sneakypower]

March through June

340 PA, 15.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, 20.1 LD%, 50.9 GB%, .133 ISO, .349 BABIP

 

July through October

250 PA, 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, 17.8 LD%, 50.1 GB%, .105 ISO, .251 BABIP

[CubinNY]

March through June

340 PA, 15.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, 20.1 LD%, 50.9 GB%, .133 ISO, .349 BABIP

 

July through October

250 PA, 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, 17.8 LD%, 50.1 GB%, .105 ISO, .251 BABIP

He was already heading into the toilet in June though. The BABIP says that he was just unlucky, but I think a far more telling line is the BB and LD%. He was swinging at a lot of balls outside of the zone (low and away sliders, especially).

[David]

He probably posted it under the name Kosuke1 or something like that.

[Mephistopheles]

March through June

340 PA, 15.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, 20.1 LD%, 50.9 GB%, .133 ISO, .349 BABIP

 

July through October

250 PA, 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, 17.8 LD%, 50.1 GB%, .105 ISO, .251 BABIP

He was already heading into the toilet in June though. The BABIP says that he was just unlucky, but I think a far more telling line is the BB and LD%. He was swinging at a lot of balls outside of the zone (low and away sliders, especially).

 

Um. No on the latter half. There's no real difference between a 17.8% LD and a 20.1% LD over the course of 164 BIPs. In fact a true .201 LD hitter has greater than a 1 in 4 chance of having an LD below .178 for 164 BIPs The difference is four line drives.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Fukudome           AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA   IsoD   RBI%
03/31 - 04/30      98   21   32    8    2    1   10   19   18  0.327  0.436  0.480  0.915  0.392  4.50  0.109  0.188
05/01 - 05/31      99   14   29    5    0    2   11   16   15  0.293  0.388  0.404  0.792  0.329  4.04  0.095  0.184
06/01 - 06/30      87   19   23    3    0    3   13   17   22  0.264  0.387  0.402  0.789  0.323  4.57  0.122  0.213
07/01 - 07/31      89   11   21    5    1    2    6    9   25  0.236  0.306  0.382  0.688  0.306  4.25  0.070  0.091
08/01 - 08/31      83    8   16    2    0    1   14   13   16  0.193  0.293  0.253  0.546  0.227  4.12  0.100  0.188
09/01 - 09/28      45    5    8    2    0    1    4    7    8  0.178  0.288  0.289  0.577  0.194  4.19  0.111  0.103
10/01 - 10/04      10    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    4  0.100  0.100  0.100  0.200  0.167  4.80  0.000  0.000

03/31 - 10/04     511   78  130   25    3   10   58   81  108  0.254  0.355  0.374  0.728  0.305  4.30  0.100  0.165

[Schwarber Fan]

Soriano staying put as leadoff man

 

Figures

[Andy]

Good lord, Bradley before Ramirez? Lee still third? Soto seventh? That's a horrible idea.

[Schwarber Fan]

And why is Miles listed as the starter before Fontenot?

 

Oh no he didn't...

[17 Seconds]

On Thursday, Piniella said the lineup he's leaning toward is Soriano, Aaron Miles, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, Geovany Soto and Ryan Theriot.

 

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

 

WTF is this? Our best hitter batting 5th? Fukudome before Soto? Where the hell is Fontenot? If Miles is starting on opening day I'm going to flip out.