Cubs Roster Basically Set - P & C Report in 12 Days

[dew1679666265]

The fact that he's been improving the last couple years makes me think he won't completely collapse this year.

 

The fact that he's been improving the last couple of years makes me think there's even more room to fall.

 

So the fact that he's been successful means he's more likely to collapse? I don't follow you.

 

 

And what happens if Fontenot gets hurt this year? We have the joy of Aaron Miles starting a whole lot for us. Had we kept DeRosa and one 2B got hurt, we'd still have a productive player left at that position.

 

That's a completely different issue.

 

How so? My argument is that the second base position has been downgraded from last year. Even in the off chance that the starters are similar, the depth is certainly worse. That's a very legit and relevant argument.

[EnduringFaith]

I'd like ole piss hands for our lefty killer off the bench in those late innings. He wouldnt fit though with the current roster.

 

ALOUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The fact that he's been improving the last couple years makes me think he won't completely collapse this year.

 

The fact that he's been improving the last couple of years makes me think there's even more room to fall.

 

So the fact that he's been successful means he's more likely to collapse? I don't follow you.

 

Plexiglass principle. Having several seasons of increasing production in your 30s is a good sign that you are due for some regression to the mean.

 

And I never said "collapse."

 

And what happens if Fontenot gets hurt this year? We have the joy of Aaron Miles starting a whole lot for us. Had we kept DeRosa and one 2B got hurt, we'd still have a productive player left at that position.

 

That's a completely different issue.

 

How so? My argument is that the second base position has been downgraded from last year. Even in the off chance that the starters are similar, the depth is certainly worse. That's a very legit and relevant argument.

 

The original discussion was about the starting lineup. If you want to have the depth discussion, I agree with you completely.

[dew1679666265]

The fact that he's been improving the last couple years makes me think he won't completely collapse this year.

 

The fact that he's been improving the last couple of years makes me think there's even more room to fall.

 

So the fact that he's been successful means he's more likely to collapse? I don't follow you.

 

Plexiglass principle. Having several seasons of increasing production in your 30s is a good sign that you are due for some regression to the mean.

 

And I never said "collapse."

 

A slight regression keeps him still a very productive second baseman, though. The only way dumping him for moderate relief prospects was a good idea is if he utterly collapses. And I don't think that's likely.

 

And what happens if Fontenot gets hurt this year? We have the joy of Aaron Miles starting a whole lot for us. Had we kept DeRosa and one 2B got hurt, we'd still have a productive player left at that position.

 

That's a completely different issue.

 

How so? My argument is that the second base position has been downgraded from last year. Even in the off chance that the starters are similar, the depth is certainly worse. That's a very legit and relevant argument.

 

The original discussion was about the starting lineup. If you want to have the depth discussion, I agree with you completely.

 

I'm talking about second base as a whole. The starting lineup can be very affected by an injury to one of our starters if we're banking on having both to hope for a match in production. I think it's a valid argument whether we're talking about depth or not.

 

If you're counting on two players combining to give you the production of one, then you have to assume (may not be safe) that both will be healthy. Otherwise, your starting lineup will suffer.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A slight regression keeps him still a very productive second baseman, though. The only way dumping him for moderate relief prospects was a good idea is if he utterly collapses. And I don't think that's likely.

 

Completely agreed. Dumping DeRosa was a bad, bad idea.

 

We really only need to Fontenot to be healthy. The right-handed half of an adequate middle infield platoon should never, ever be a problem.

[David]

A slight regression keeps him still a very productive second baseman, though. The only way dumping him for moderate relief prospects was a good idea is if he utterly collapses. And I don't think that's likely.

 

Completely agreed. Dumping DeRosa was a bad, bad idea.

 

We really only need to Fontenot to be healthy. The right-handed half of an adequate middle infield platoon should never, ever be a problem.

 

Exactly.

[dew1679666265]

A slight regression keeps him still a very productive second baseman, though. The only way dumping him for moderate relief prospects was a good idea is if he utterly collapses. And I don't think that's likely.

 

Completely agreed. Dumping DeRosa was a bad, bad idea.

 

We really only need to Fontenot to be healthy. The right-handed half of an adequate middle infield platoon should never, ever be a problem.

 

I'm not terribly concerned if Miles gets hurt, but even still, who will we replace him with if he does? The random, slap hitter Hendry will likely sign as the final bat off the bench? We still have to find a way to get to an .800-.850 OPS (what DeRo would likely give us).

 

And if Fontenot goes down, we're in a world of trouble at that position.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

.800-.850 is just way too bullish on DeRosa for my tastes.

 

PECOTA projection: 354/414

Marcels projection: 350/445

ZIPS projection: 362/440

 

.802 is the highest projection. .850 is a bit much to expect, though certainly possible.

[dew1679666265]

.800-.850 is just way too bullish on DeRosa for my tastes.

 

PECOTA projection: 354/414

Marcels projection: 350/445

ZIPS projection: 362/440

 

.802 is the highest projection. .850 is a bit much to expect, though certainly possible.

 

I think the first two projections are on the low end of what he'll do. The .802 is fairly realistic, though I think it's very reasonable to expect him at .815-.820 this year. That'd be a drop of .30 OPS from last year (roughly) and about .20-.30 points better than his 07 numbers.

[shnsajax]

So what is the 40man roster at now with Wuertz being gone?

[jersey cubs fan]

So what is the 40man roster at now with Wuertz being gone?

 

2 open spots

[mul21]

It really just makes too much sense to bring in Wigginton and send Gaithright packing to Iowa. What kind of contract did he get? Ty would make so much sense because he can play a little corner OF (not well, but he can) and can backup 3rd when Aram has a bad wheel for a couple weeks. That would add thunder from both sides of the plate because it would allow Hoff to stay on the 325 man as well.

 

Bench:

Johnson

Hoff

Wigginton

Bako

Miles

 

Works for me, at least until Sori or Bradley goes down for an extended period.

[YearofDaCubs]

We need a loogy who is better than Cotts because Cotts basically sucked against lefties last year.

[Guest]

Gains and losses for the Cubs so far this offseason in the attached doc. Let me know if I'm missing anything.

[Guest]

I'd like ole piss hands for our lefty killer off the bench in those late innings. He wouldnt fit though with the current roster.

 

ALOUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

:evil:

[CubinNY]

Gains and losses for the Cubs so far this offseason in the attached doc. Let me know if I'm missing anything.

Isn't Olsen a pass through and not really a gain or a loss? I suppose he's a gain and a loss too though.

[Guest]

Gains and losses for the Cubs so far this offseason in the attached doc. Let me know if I'm missing anything.

Isn't Olsen a pass through and not really a gain or a loss? I suppose he's a gain and a loss too though.

I've got the trades color coded there, so it would have thrown off the individual transactions if I hadn't included him.

 

The FA's are in red, all the trades are lined up by time and listed in order by time.

[CubinNY]

Gains and losses for the Cubs so far this offseason in the attached doc. Let me know if I'm missing anything.

Isn't Olsen a pass through and not really a gain or a loss? I suppose he's a gain and a loss too though.

I've got the trades color coded there, so it would have thrown off the individual transactions if I hadn't included him.

 

The FA's are in red, all the trades are lined up by time and listed in order by time.

I see, I need to up the prescription on my glasses.

[Guest]

Gains and losses for the Cubs so far this offseason in the attached doc. Let me know if I'm missing anything.

Isn't Olsen a pass through and not really a gain or a loss? I suppose he's a gain and a loss too though.

I've got the trades color coded there, so it would have thrown off the individual transactions if I hadn't included him.

 

The FA's are in red, all the trades are lined up by time and listed in order by time.

I see, I need to up the prescription on my glasses.

I uploaded it much larger the first time and then cut it to half size. Unfortunately, the wording got fuzzy in the process. :(

[jersey cubs fan]

How did Brad Snyder end up on the 40-man roster? Was he an offseason acquisition?

[nilodnayr]

How did Brad Snyder end up on the 40-man roster? Was he an offseason acquisition?

 

Claimed him off waivers from the Indians last September...we have a A LOT of wasted space on the 40 man, we really didn't need to lose Veal if we didn't want to lose him.

[Monco]

The problem is the only upgrade is Bradley,and he was signed as a free agent. A lot of trades were made but comparing whats coming in to whats being replaced,I see alot of washes and downgrades. It looks like the plan is to make alot of moves,and hope to get lucky.

 

Overspending has put them in this spot.They had to cut payroll to sign Bradley.There are still free agents out there,but they don't have the money. Of course,overpaying for Bako and Miles didn't help.

[cubsfan26]

was no good reason to dump DeRosa and bring in Aaron Miles.

 

But the Cubs wanted to get Fontenot regular AB's at 2b. There wasn't any other way for the Cubs to do that without trading DeRosa. How could the Cubs justify, making Fontenot the starter, and DeRosa the supersub next year?

 

And what happens if Fontenot gets hurt this year? We have the joy of Aaron Miles starting a whole lot for us. Had we kept DeRosa and one 2B got hurt, we'd still have a productive player left at that position

 

What happens if everybody gets hurt this year? Then things will go bad, but thats unlikely to happen. If for whatever reason Fontenot struggles or gets hurt, then we add a 2b midseason. It's not that hard to get a 760-780 plus OPS 2b without giving much. Because we couldn't start Fontenot and keep DeRosa around on the bench.

 

 

That's not the way to excite a fanbase after a monumental collapse in the playoffs.

 

Yeah it's not gonna excite the fanbase right now, but these younger,cheaper players, do well people will be happy. Hendry is counting on some young players coming through in full-time roles. So that scares people a bit, but the Cubs believe they can fill those roles. They feel Fontenot will come close to DeRosa production if not better.They feel Hoffpauir can give them a good power bat off the bench. They think Aaron Miles will be a better bat off the bench then Cedeno.They think Gaudin/Marshall/Heilman can replace Marquis and still be insurance for Harden just fine. They also feel, Bradley will have better health. I can understand some people being worried about counting on these younger guys, and Bradleys health. But lets see what happens, if most of those things work out the team could easily be better in 09.

[dew1679666265]

was no good reason to dump DeRosa and bring in Aaron Miles.

 

But the Cubs wanted to get Fontenot regular AB's at 2b. There wasn't any other way for the Cubs to do that without trading DeRosa. How could the Cubs justify, making Fontenot the starter, and DeRosa the supersub next year?

 

DeRosa had one year left on his deal, why couldn't we keep him that one last year to see if he was still highly productive and then turn 2B over to Fontenot then? Why did we have to downgrade at second and significantly downgrade the bench just to get ABs for a guy who has never had more than 250 in a season and is still a question mark?

 

Rebuilding teams trade very good players away for junk so they can play cheaper, younger players. Not teams who expect to compete for a World Series. Had we gotten some very good talent for DeRosa, that'd be one thing, but we didn't. We got decent minor league relievers.

 

And what happens if Fontenot gets hurt this year? We have the joy of Aaron Miles starting a whole lot for us. Had we kept DeRosa and one 2B got hurt, we'd still have a productive player left at that position

 

What happens if everybody gets hurt this year? Then things will go bad, but thats unlikely to happen. If for whatever reason Fontenot struggles or gets hurt, then we add a 2b midseason. It's not that hard to get a 760-780 plus OPS 2b without giving much. Because we couldn't start Fontenot and keep DeRosa around on the bench.

 

Fontenot getting injured is far more likely than "everybody" getting hurt. And if Fontenot goes down, will we have the resources to go get a good to very good second baseman? Will there be one available?

 

And a .760-.780 would be a pretty decent downgrade from what we got last year (and worse than the projections I've seen for DeRo this year). Just for the heck of it, though, there were 13 starting second basemen to top a .760 OPS last year. Some were the usual names: Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla and Chase Utley.

 

Others were guys that we could never acquire cheaply: Alexei Ramirez, Jose Lopez, Clint Barmes and Kelly Johnson.

 

So that leaves us with these guys who we could bring in to deliver the significant downgrade at 2B: Placido Polanco (.767), Kaz Matsui (.781), Ray Durham (.812) and Ronnie Belliard (.845). I'd much, much rather have Mark DeRosa as a super sub than rely on making a desperation trade (or signing, I don't know if Durham and Belliard are even under contract) for any of those guys.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's not the way to excite a fanbase after a monumental collapse in the playoffs.

 

Yeah it's not gonna excite the fanbase right now, but these younger,cheaper players, do well people will be happy. Hendry is counting on some young players coming through in full-time roles. So that scares people a bit, but the Cubs believe they can fill those roles. They feel Fontenot will come close to DeRosa production if not better.They feel Hoffpauir can give them a good power bat off the bench. They think Aaron Miles will be a better bat off the bench then Cedeno.They think Gaudin/Marshall/Heilman can replace Marquis and still be insurance for Harden just fine. They also feel, Bradley will have better health. I can understand some people being worried about counting on these younger guys, and Bradleys health. But lets see what happens, if most of those things work out the team could easily be better in 09.

 

I'm not really sure you can say the Cubs got younger and cheaper. They got older and more expensive.