Cubs Roster Basically Set - P & C Report in 12 Days

[Cubzfan64]

Color me underwhelmed with the offseason so far.

 

God help us when the inevitable injuries that hit every team hits us, because we're lacking in the 2nd stringers.

[cubsfan26]

DeRosa had one year left on his deal, why couldn't we keep him that one last year to see if he was still highly productive and then turn 2B over to Fontenot then? Why did we have to downgrade at second and significantly downgrade the bench just to get ABs for a guy who has never had more than 250 in a season and is still a question mark?

 

 

Because the Cubs feel Fontenot is ready now, why keep a guy on the bench if you feel he can improve your line-up now? The fact that Fontenot has never had more then 250 AB's in a major league season, is the reason why he deserves more. Fontenot being a question mark is only a matter of opinion. All Fontenot stats in the majors, minors, and predictions for 09, would show that Fontenot shouldn't really be that big of a question mark. Significantly downgrade the bench is also something I don't understand. But I guess people would feel that way if, they thought Miles can't out hit Cedeno, and Hoffpauir can't hit like did last year for another 100-150 AB's. Otherwise the bench really isn't that much different from last year. The Cubs like there younger players(as MLB experience wise), and feel they will be better then the guys they have next year. This isn't the first time they have done this though. They have replaced Izturis with Theriot, Soto with Kendall, and Pie with Jones over the last two years. Just in the past the young players weren't replacing players as good as DeRosa, so it appears more risky.

 

 

I'm not really sure you can say the Cubs got younger and cheaper. They got older and more expensive

 

Not really, they got more expensive due to increase contracts. But really the payroll is only 7m more then the final payroll(130-137m) from last year. But going with Fontenot at 2b over DeRosa, Gaudin/Marshall over Marquis, Bradley over Edmonds. Of course Miles is older then Cedeno. But for the most part we probably did get a little younger then last year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Not really, they got more expensive due to increase contracts. But really the payroll is only 7m more then the final payroll(130-137m) from last year. But going with Fontenot at 2b over DeRosa, Gaudin/Marshall over Marquis, Bradley over Edmonds. Of course Miles is older then Cedeno. But for the most part we probably did get a little younger then last year.

 

How about Heilman in the pen with Samardzija in AAA, and Gaithright for Pie?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They said Samardzija was going to Iowa to start long before they got Heilman.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They said Samardzija was going to Iowa to start long before they got Heilman.

 

I didn't say it was a 1-for-1 move. I'm saying in the aggregate, the team is older because of the two.

[cubsfan26]

Not really, they got more expensive due to increase contracts. But really the payroll is only 7m more then the final payroll(130-137m) from last year. But going with Fontenot at 2b over DeRosa, Gaudin/Marshall over Marquis, Bradley over Edmonds. Of course Miles is older then Cedeno. But for the most part we probably did get a little younger then last year.

 

How about Heilman in the pen with Samardzija in AAA, and Gaithright for Pie?

 

 

Well Pie was really only on the big league roster for two and half months of last season, and Samardzija could still be on the roster at some point. These are a few of the roster moves, and how old they will be during next year baseball season.

 

 

Miles(32), Cedeno(26)- older

Bradley(31) Edmonds(39)- Younger

Gregg(31), Wood(32)- Younger

Heilman(30), Wuertz(30)- same

Gathright(28), Ward(34)- Younger

Vizcaino(35), Howry(36)- Younger

 

But what I meant was we were going with younger guys like Fontenot and Gaudin/Marshall in replacing DeRosa and Marquis. Even though the guys were on the roster at some point last year, those guys are just getting moved into bigger roles, and replacing older players.

Edited February 3, 2009 by cubsfan26

[Guest]

They said Samardzija was going to Iowa to start long before they got Heilman.

Actually, they said he'd get a chance to compete for a starter's job in spring training as long ago as last fall. It's conceivable that they're hoping he wins that role and pushes Heilman to the pen.

[cubsfan26]

They said Samardzija was going to Iowa to start long before they got Heilman.

Actually, they said he'd get a chance to compete for a starter's job in spring training as long ago as last fall. It's conceivable that they're hoping he wins that role and pushes Heilman to the pen.

 

 

I still think the 5th spot is pretty wide open. I don't think Heilman or anybody is really a lock yet. Of course they probably rather not start Marshall, but if he goes out and pitches much better then the other three. Then I think the Cubs will go with Marshall in the rotation. But it's also possible Gaudin can win that spot, if he pitches as good as Marshall, and Heilman struggles after not starting since 05. Samardzija is the long shot, since he doesn't have the experience the others have, but him winning the spot is possible. Chad Gaudin has a 4.71 era in 50 career starts, Marshall has a 4.79 era in 50 career starts, and Heilman has a career 5.93 era in 25 starts. Gaudin has had a 4.34 era in 40 starts over the last two years, and Marshall has had a 4.08 era in 26 starts over the last two years.

[dew1679666265]

DeRosa had one year left on his deal, why couldn't we keep him that one last year to see if he was still highly productive and then turn 2B over to Fontenot then? Why did we have to downgrade at second and significantly downgrade the bench just to get ABs for a guy who has never had more than 250 in a season and is still a question mark?

 

 

Because the Cubs feel Fontenot is ready now, why keep a guy on the bench if you feel he can improve your line-up now? The fact that Fontenot has never had more then 250 AB's in a major league season, is the reason why he deserves more. Fontenot being a question mark is only a matter of opinion. All Fontenot stats in the majors, minors, and predictions for 09, would show that Fontenot shouldn't really be that big of a question mark. Significantly downgrade the bench is also something I don't understand. But I guess people would feel that way if, they thought Miles can't out hit Cedeno, and Hoffpauir can't hit like did last year for another 100-150 AB's. Otherwise the bench really isn't that much different from last year. The Cubs like there younger players(as MLB experience wise), and feel they will be better then the guys they have next year. This isn't the first time they have done this though. They have replaced Izturis with Theriot, Soto with Kendall, and Pie with Jones over the last two years. Just in the past the young players weren't replacing players as good as DeRosa, so it appears more risky.

 

It's a pretty huge caveat that the players who were replaced in the past weren't productive players and DeRosa is. I see no reason to dump a known quantity (DeRo) for relative peanuts in order to play an unknown quantity (Fontenot) when the goal of the franchise is to win now.

 

And the bench is most certainly worse because of this move and it's quite simple why: Fontenot moves to the starting lineup and is replaced by a bad player - Aaron Miles. Miles isn't replacing what Cedeno would have done for us, he's replacing what Fontenot would have done for us. While I'm not sure what Fontenot will do with 400 or so ABs this year in a starting role, I've seen that he can be very valuable off the bench. All Miles has shown most of his career is that he can hit a single 28% of the time he steps to the plate. That's a definite downgrade.

 

And keep in mind that with the oft-injured Bradley in RF, having DeRosa to fill in would be very nice for his DL stints. Instead, we have to hope that Joey Gathright can fill in somewhat reasonably. Hoff is likely destined for AAA because we need another middle infielder.

[cubsfan26]

Miles isn't replacing what Cedeno would have done for us, he's replacing what Fontenot would have done for us. While I'm not sure what Fontenot will do with 400 or so ABs this year in a starting role, I've seen that he can be very valuable off the bench. All Miles has shown most of his career is that he can hit a single 28% of the time he steps to the plate. That's a definite downgrade.

 

 

It depends on how you look at it, but our LH power hitter off the bench currently is Hoffpauir, replacing Fontenot. Yes if Fontenot gets hurt then we have Miles at 2b. But if DeRosa was used in RF, Cedeno would have been used in that spot anyways. You name DeRosa for all these postions, but there's still just one DeRosa. When Fontenot played, DeRosa often filled in the outfield. Instead this year Fontenot will be at 2b, and Hoffpauir playing the corners when needed.

 

 

Yes the Cubs might add another veteran bench player, but I still find it hard to believe that Hoffpauir won't make the team if he has a big spring, after what he did last year. I agree that trading DeRosa was risky, and If I was the GM I wouldn't have made the move. But I understand why they did it, and I'm willing to give the move a chance. Plus Miles wasn't bad last year, yes it could be a fluke good year, but many thought DeRosa had a fluke good year when we signed him to. I also don't think having good power or not makes a hitter good or bad, but thats just my opinion.

[wvcbxl]

... the oft-injured Bradley in RF ...

 

Everybody here seems to be 100% sure that Bradley will get injured at some point during the season.

Call me naive, but I have a feeling he'll stay healthy.

[Cubzfan64]

... the oft-injured Bradley in RF ...

 

Everybody here seems to be 100% sure that Bradley will get injured at some point during the season.

Call me naive, but I have a feeling he'll stay healthy.

 

Not naive at all - just astronomically optimistic :grin:

[wvcbxl]

astronomically optimistic

 

Is there any other way to survive for Cubs fans? :wink:

[dew1679666265]

Miles isn't replacing what Cedeno would have done for us, he's replacing what Fontenot would have done for us. While I'm not sure what Fontenot will do with 400 or so ABs this year in a starting role, I've seen that he can be very valuable off the bench. All Miles has shown most of his career is that he can hit a single 28% of the time he steps to the plate. That's a definite downgrade.

 

 

It depends on how you look at it, but our LH power hitter off the bench currently is Hoffpauir, replacing Fontenot. Yes if Fontenot gets hurt then we have Miles at 2b. But if DeRosa was used in RF, Cedeno would have been used in that spot anyways. You name DeRosa for all these postions, but there's still just one DeRosa. When Fontenot played, DeRosa often filled in the outfield. Instead this year Fontenot will be at 2b, and Hoffpauir playing the corners when needed.

 

With DeRosa still around, he would have been the starting second baseman. When Bradley was hurt, DeRo would have shifted to right and Fontenot would have started full-time for whatever time Bradley was out.

 

Now, though, we have Fontenot starting at second and, when Bradley gets hurt, we'll have at best Hoff and at worst Gathright filling in for him. I don't see where Cedeno fits into the equation in either spot.

 

Also, if we still had DeRo, then if one of our second basemen got hurt, the other good one would fill in. Now, we have to hold our breath all year that Fontenot stays healthy all year (and is productive). Otherwise, we're stuck with Aaron Miles getting many at bats. Again, Cedeno doesn't fit into the equation.

 

 

Yes the Cubs might add another veteran bench player, but I still find it hard to believe that Hoffpauir won't make the team if he has a big spring, after what he did last year. I agree that trading DeRosa was risky, and If I was the GM I wouldn't have made the move. But I understand why they did it, and I'm willing to give the move a chance. Plus Miles wasn't bad last year, yes it could be a fluke good year, but many thought DeRosa had a fluke good year when we signed him to. I also don't think having good power or not makes a hitter good or bad, but thats just my opinion.

 

If Hoff isn't sent down, who is? They just signed Gathright, Bako's the only catcher, Reed isn't going down and neither, sadly, is Miles. The tendency under Lou has been 12-13 pitchers and two infielders. That means someone will have to go to make room for another infielder. If not Hoff, who?

 

And DeRosa had a career year that was supported by a pretty major tweak he made to his swing. Miles didn't do anything like that. He just happened to have a good year. Could he repeat it? Sure, but then he's only about as useful as Theriot and I don't want to pay Theriot $2.5 million a year. Power, also, is not completely necessary, but it's awful nice to have. If you have no power, you better be great at getting on base and Miles isn't - even last year he wasn't.

[dew1679666265]

... the oft-injured Bradley in RF ...

 

Everybody here seems to be 100% sure that Bradley will get injured at some point during the season.

Call me naive, but I have a feeling he'll stay healthy.

 

You definitely are incredibly optimistic then. Bradley hasn't played 100 games in the field in a season since 2004. That's also the only year in his career that he's played 100 games in the outfield (granted, a couple of those were early in his career and weren't injury related, but still).

 

Including his time as a DH, he's played more than 100 games three of nine seasons in his major league career. He's about as sure a thing as you're going to get for a long term injury.

[cubsfan26]

Also, if we still had DeRo, then if one of our second basemen got hurt, the other good one would fill in. Now, we have to hold our breath all year that Fontenot stays healthy all year (and is productive). Otherwise, we're stuck with Aaron Miles getting many at bats. Again, Cedeno doesn't fit into the equation.

 

There's alot of "if's", if we kept Jason Kendall last year, he would have been better then Blanco. If something happen to Soto, or he wasn't as productive. The point is the Cubs wanted Fontenot to get regular playing time right now, the only way to do it that was trade DeRosa. They felt Miles, Hoffpauir and whoever else can fill in just fine short term. Or they can pick up guys off the scrap heap, to fill in those spots "if" we have a injury. Last year some people were also upset we traded Jacque Jones for nothing, incase Pie sucked again. Well the Cubs went with unproven guy, and he didn't do well. But they were still able to find a guy during the season. The opening day roster isn't the final team, and "if" these things happen we can make moves to fix these issues.

 

 

If Hoff isn't sent down, who is? They just signed Gathright, Bako's the only catcher, Reed isn't going down and neither, sadly, is Miles. The tendency under Lou has been 12-13 pitchers and two infielders. That means someone will have to go to make room for another infielder. If not Hoff, who?

 

Well the Cubs still didn't sign anyone, and if they do it could very possibly be for a minor league deal. Hoffpauir could battle that guy for a roster spot this spring. Personally I don't see Aurilia/Millar or anybody else really jumping at the chance to sign with the Cubs. Since neither would get much money per year, and probably won't get alot of AB's.

 

He's about as sure a thing as you're going to get for a long term injury.

 

He's likely to have a injury at some point, but long term is still very debateable. Plenty of major league hitters have had three poor seasons of health, and been ok after that. Personally I feel Bradley playing in a small ballpark like Wrigley, and playing RF full-time will keep him healthier then years past. In years past he played alot of CF and had to play in much bigger ballparks. Also keep in mind Bradley DH last year finally let him rest his body, and fully recover from a bunch of those injuries. The guy is probably 100 percent healthy for the first time in years. I don't think Hendry is stupid, he wouldn't give Bradley the contract he did, unless the doctors truely felt he can stay healthy.

Edited February 3, 2009 by cubsfan26

[dew1679666265]

If Hoff isn't sent down, who is? They just signed Gathright, Bako's the only catcher, Reed isn't going down and neither, sadly, is Miles. The tendency under Lou has been 12-13 pitchers and two infielders. That means someone will have to go to make room for another infielder. If not Hoff, who?

 

Well the Cubs still didn't sign anyone, and if they do it could very possibly be for a minor league deal. Hoffpauir could battle that guy for a roster spot this spring. Personally I don't see Aurilia/Millar or anybody else really jumping at the chance to sign with the Cubs. Since neither would get much money per year, and probably won't get alot of AB's.

 

So they won't go with two backup middle infielders? That's completely against Lou's MO.

 

He's about as sure a thing as you're going to get for a long term injury.

 

He's likely to have a injury at some point, but long term is still very debateable. Plenty of major league hitters have had three poor seasons of health, and been ok after that. Personally I feel Bradley playing in a small ballpark like Wrigley, and playing RF full-time will keep him healthier then years past. In years past he played alot of CF and had to play in much bigger ballparks. Also keep in mind Bradley DH last year finally let him rest his body, and fully recover from a bunch of those injuries. The guy is probably 100 percent healthy for the first time in years. I don't think Hendry is stupid, he wouldn't give Bradley the contract he did, unless the doctors truely felt he can stay healthy.

 

And that "fully healthy" will last how long with Bradley? He's been injury plagued his entire career pretty much.

 

Since 2002 (omitting his first two years when he didn't have a full time job), he's averaged 99 games a year. That means in an average year, he'll miss 63 games. That means he's likely to incur a long term injury.

[cubsfan26]

So they won't go with two backup middle infielders? That's completely against Lou's MO.

 

In 2007 when we traded Izturis who was our second middle infielder from June to September? Mike Fontenot was our only middle infielder for half of the 2007 season.

 

 

And that "fully healthy" will last how long with Bradley? He's been injury plagued his entire career pretty much.

 

Since 2002 (omitting his first two years when he didn't have a full time job), he's averaged 99 games a year. That means in an average year, he'll miss 63 games. That means he's likely to incur a long term injury.

 

Bradley has been hurt 3 seasons 05-07. When he didn't play in 02-04, it was for non injury reasons(besides 1 month in 02). So averaging out games played from 02-08 to prove you're point based on him playing because he was hurt isn't fair. Bradley made one trip to the DL for one month from 02-05. He also always played alot from 98 through 01 as a minor leaguer. In June of 2005 is when he started to have issues. So sorry that If I believe a guy can recover from having three injury prone seasons. Being 100 percent healthy now, is probably healtier then he's been at any point in years, and playing RF and in half his games in small Wrigley should help. He won't play 160 games, but saying won't play over 100 games because he had three years were he was hurt alot, is unfair. Ken Griffey Jr. played in 70,53,83 games from 02-04. But from 05-08 he played in 128,109,144 and 143 for example.

[CubColtPacer]

So they won't go with two backup middle infielders? That's completely against Lou's MO.

 

In 2007 when we traded Izturis who was our second middle infielder from June to September? Mike Fontenot was our only middle infielder for half of the 2007 season.

 

Izturis got traded on July 19th. Scott Moore came up for 5 days, and then Cedeno was put back on the major league roster on July 24th. He then went back down on August 21st and came back up at the beginning of September.

 

From what I remember and can piece together from the transactions they made, the Cubs only had 1 middle infielder for slightly over a month cumulatively. 9 days near the beginning of May, two weeks at the end of May, those 5 days in July, and the 10 days at the end of August.

 

Of course, a big difference between this year and that year was that the Cubs had options they could bring up from AAA very easily (Fontenot and Cedeno), which made it much easier to carry 1 middle IF for a few days. They don't really have that luxury this year and so they'll likely have to sign a veteran to fill that spot.

[dew1679666265]

So they won't go with two backup middle infielders? That's completely against Lou's MO.

 

In 2007 when we traded Izturis who was our second middle infielder from June to September? Mike Fontenot was our only middle infielder for half of the 2007 season.

 

Izturis got traded on July 19th. Scott Moore came up for 5 days, and then Cedeno was put back on the major league roster on July 24th. He then went back down on August 21st and came back up at the beginning of September.

 

From what I remember and can piece together from the transactions they made, the Cubs only had 1 middle infielder for slightly over a month cumulatively. 9 days near the beginning of May, two weeks at the end of May, those 5 days in July, and the 10 days at the end of August.

 

Of course, a big difference between this year and that year was that the Cubs had options they could bring up from AAA very easily (Fontenot and Cedeno), which made it much easier to carry 1 middle IF for a few days. They don't really have that luxury this year and so they'll likely have to sign a veteran to fill that spot.

 

And Hoff is really the only guy who can go to the minors.

[DiamondMind]

 

God help us when the inevitable injuries that hit every team hits us, because we're lacking in the 2nd stringers.

 

This is by far my biggest concern for '09.

[dew1679666265]

Bradley has been hurt 3 seasons 05-07. When he didn't play in 02-04, it was for non injury reasons(besides 1 month in 02). So averaging out games played from 02-08 to prove you're point based on him playing because he was hurt isn't fair. Bradley made one trip to the DL for one month from 02-05. He also always played alot from 98 through 01 as a minor leaguer. In June of 2005 is when he started to have issues. So sorry that If I believe a guy can recover from having three injury prone seasons. Being 100 percent healthy now, is probably healtier then he's been at any point in years, and playing RF and in half his games in small Wrigley should help. He won't play 160 games, but saying won't play over 100 games because he had three years were he was hurt alot, is unfair. Ken Griffey Jr. played in 70,53,83 games from 02-04. But from 05-08 he played in 128,109,144 and 143 for example.

 

2002:

Suffered an orbital bone fracture and also had an appendectomy which led to two stints on the DL.

 

2003:

Had the best season of his young career with a .321-10-56-61-17 line over just 101 games. However, he missed the last six weeks of the year due to a lower back contusion.

 

There's three DL stints in the 02-04 seasons. He was healthy all year in 05, but was suspended for the final week of the season because he got pissed off. And for whatever reason it is that he's averaged less than 100 games a year since 2002, he still has. There are reasons - mostly injury, sometimes suspension. But he's a very, very good bet to miss a lot of time this year.

Edited February 4, 2009 by dew

[dew1679666265]

 

God help us when the inevitable injuries that hit every team hits us, because we're lacking in the 2nd stringers.

 

This is by far my biggest concern for '09.

 

Yeah, the starting lineup is only marginally worse than last year (at worst). The bench and bullpen are the biggest downgrades, though.

[Guest]

I'll takes Miles' career .352 OBP against lefties for his half of the platoon. If we stick to a *very* strict platoon, then it should be pretty close.

 

Has Lou ever stuck to a very strict platoon (or even a strict platoon at all)? I really don't remember.

 

And it's a sign of a bad move when you make one and end up hoping that - at best - you can match your production from last year.

 

Didn't he stick pretty close to the platoon in CF last year with Edmonds and Johnson?

 

So/so, I think. As the season progressed he began playing Reed against a decent number of righties, I'm pretty sure.

 

I thought that was because Edmonds had some minor injuries and couldn't go as often so Lou didn't really have a choice. It seemed like when Edmonds was healthy, he played against righties.

 

And Lou really seems to like his left-handed hitters face right-handed pitchers in pinch hit situations and vice versa (to the point that he sometimes goes too far with them), so I'd say that as long as both sides of the platoon are producing at a satisfactory level in Lou's eyes, he'll stick with it.

[dew1679666265]

I'll takes Miles' career .352 OBP against lefties for his half of the platoon. If we stick to a *very* strict platoon, then it should be pretty close.

 

Has Lou ever stuck to a very strict platoon (or even a strict platoon at all)? I really don't remember.

 

And it's a sign of a bad move when you make one and end up hoping that - at best - you can match your production from last year.

 

Didn't he stick pretty close to the platoon in CF last year with Edmonds and Johnson?

 

So/so, I think. As the season progressed he began playing Reed against a decent number of righties, I'm pretty sure.

 

I thought that was because Edmonds had some minor injuries and couldn't go as often so Lou didn't really have a choice. It seemed like when Edmonds was healthy, he played against righties.

 

And Lou really seems to like his left-handed hitters face right-handed pitchers in pinch hit situations and vice versa (to the point that he sometimes goes too far with them), so I'd say that as long as both sides of the platoon are producing at a satisfactory level in Lou's eyes, he'll stick with it.

 

Lou does seem to like Fontenot, but it worries me that they apparently really like Miles. If they decide he's the greatest thing since sliced bread - and with him being a switch hitter - he could start stealing some ABs. Especially when Bradley goes down and we need a right fielder....