PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet

[hankp101]

fun with pecota:

fontenot: 278/356/440 (.273)

miles: 280/327/335 (.238)

derosa: 269/354/414 (.275)

cedeno: 262/316/385 (.242)

so as long as the cubs play mostly fontenot at 2B, pecota doesn't think there will be much drop off from derosa, purely at that position.

 

I'd love it if Fontenot does that. I kinda doubt it, but hope I'm very wrong.

 

And I laugh that Cedeno, who we just traded, projects to be better than the guy we just gave a 2 year/4.5 million dollar deal to. Not a Cedeno fan at all, but I'd have preferred him to overpaying Miles.

 

Yeah, PECOTA just underscores what I think so many of us here think. As frustrating as they have been at times, the odds are good that we could have got as much or more from Cedeno and Pie than we will get from their more expensive replacements, Miles and Gathright. Maybe that savings would have been enought that Hendry could have kept DeRosa around, which would have given us much better insurance against an injury to Bradley/Ramirez/Soriano thna we currently have. Hopefully Hendry will end up knowing better than us and the projection systems do, or getting lucky. Either one is fine with me.

Edited February 1, 2009 by hankp101

[dew1679666265]

fun with pecota:

fontenot: 278/356/440 (.273)

miles: 280/327/335 (.238)

derosa: 269/354/414 (.275)

cedeno: 262/316/385 (.242)

so as long as the cubs play mostly fontenot at 2B, pecota doesn't think there will be much drop off from derosa, purely at that position.

 

I'd love it if Fontenot does that. I kinda doubt it, but hope I'm very wrong.

 

And I laugh that Cedeno, who we just traded, projects to be better than the guy we just gave a 2 year/4.5 million dollar deal to. Not a Cedeno fan at all, but I'd have preferred him to overpaying Miles.

 

Yeah, PECOTA just underscores what I think so many of us here think. As frustrating as they have been at times, the odds are good that we could have got as much or more from Cedeno and Pie than we will get from their more expensive replacements, Miles and Gathright. Maybe that savings would have been enought that Hendry could have kept DeRosa around, which would have given us much bBraetter insurance against an injury to Bradley/Ramirez/Soriano thna we currently have. Hopefully Hendry will end up knowing better than us and the projection systems do, or getting lucky. Either one is fine with me.

 

Yeah, that's what I'm hoping. After the playoff collapse last year, though, and the Peavy rumors swirling throughout the offseason, it's a really bitter pill to swallow that all Hendry did was make us worse entering this year.

[TruffleShuffle]

fun with pecota:

fontenot: 278/356/440 (.273)

miles: 280/327/335 (.238)

derosa: 269/354/414 (.275)

cedeno: 262/316/385 (.242)

so as long as the cubs play mostly fontenot at 2B, pecota doesn't think there will be much drop off from derosa, purely at that position.

 

I'd love it if Fontenot does that. I kinda doubt it, but hope I'm very wrong.

 

he was way better than those numbers last year, so i don't see why you'd be that skeptical.

[dew1679666265]

fun with pecota:

fontenot: 278/356/440 (.273)

miles: 280/327/335 (.238)

derosa: 269/354/414 (.275)

cedeno: 262/316/385 (.242)

so as long as the cubs play mostly fontenot at 2B, pecota doesn't think there will be much drop off from derosa, purely at that position.

 

I'd love it if Fontenot does that. I kinda doubt it, but hope I'm very wrong.

 

he was way better than those numbers last year, so i don't see why you'd be that skeptical.

 

And he was worse than those numbers the year before. Last year he only had 243 ABs and I'm hoping he gets a lot more than that this year (since our only other option is Aaron Miles). The question is, where would 150 to 200+ more ABs put his numbers?

[weis21]

I could be wrong, but aren't the comparable players just what you would expect from that player for that particular year?

 

So, in other words, Vitters would produce like a Mark Lewis or Kelly Gruber if he faced MLB pitching this year. Certainly PECOTA predicts his ceiling is much, much higher than those other players.

[weis21]

Plus BP pegged Fontenot for a 282/357/431 line last year and I remember people (myself included) skeptical he could pull that off either.

 

I fully expect him to post an 800 OPS this year.

[Mephistopheles]

I could be wrong, but aren't the comparable players just what you would expect from that player for that particular year?

 

So, in other words, Vitters would produce like a Mark Lewis or Kelly Gruber if he faced MLB pitching this year. Certainly PECOTA predicts his ceiling is much, much higher than those other players.

 

 

no.

[weis21]

Why then would a 5 star prospect have such horrid comparisons? It makes no sense.

[AlwaysaCub]

Did anyone check out Rich Harden's comp list from PECOTA?

 

Hideo Nomo

Nolan Ryan

Kevin Appier

Sandy Koufax

 

Also down for 183 innings and 6th highest Pitcher WARP in MLB.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why then would a 5 star prospect have such horrid comparisons? It makes no sense.

 

Because he's got the tools that impress scouts but not the production that impresses numbers people?

[weis21]

Why then would a 5 star prospect have such horrid comparisons? It makes no sense.

 

Because he's got the tools that impress scouts but not the production that impresses numbers people?

Yeah, I guess. But in his only real experience he has is at low A ball where he OPSed 863 as an 18 year old. That's about all you can ask from someone his age and it's certainly better than Kelly Gruber or Mark Lewis ever did in similar situations. There's really no reason to knock him right now whether you are looking at tools or numbers.

 

After a little bit of digging, I found this:

The PECOTA similarity scores are based primarily on looking at a three-year window of a pitcher’s performance. Thus, we might look at what a pitcher did from ages 35-37, and compare that against the most similar age 35-37 performances, after adjusting for parks, league effects, and a whole host of other things. This is different from the similarity scores you might see at baseball-reference.com or in other places, which attempt to evaluate the totality of a player’s career up to a given age.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=136

 

So, judging by that, they're comparing Vitter's short career to other players with comparable late teenage seasons. Not players with comparable ceilings.

[Mephistopheles]

Did anyone check out Rich Harden's comp list from PECOTA?

 

Hideo Nomo

Nolan Ryan

Kevin Appier

Sandy Koufax

 

Also down for 183 innings and 6th highest Pitcher WARP in MLB.

 

From the fun projection bag. ZiPS is generally one of the higher regression based projection systems among pitchers. It has him at a 2.37 ERA and a 12.9 K/9. That rate has been surpassed twice in major league history by a starting pitcher for a season. Period. '99 Pedro and '01 Unit. In fact, only three pitchers have ever had seasons within 1.0 K/9 of that rate, those two and KW's rookie season.

[TruffleShuffle]

honestly you have to take those pecota comps with a grain of salt when a guy hasn't even reached full-season ball yet.

 

that being said, wieters is going to be a beast and we should have picked him. his top pecota comp is mark teixeira, who is a great hitter regardless of position.

[sneakypower]

as it turns out, felix pie's 3rd comparable is carlos beltran

[jersey cubs fan]

honestly you have to take those pecota comps with a grain of salt when a guy hasn't even reached full-season ball yet.

 

that being said, wieters is going to be a beast and we should have picked him. his top pecota comp is mark teixeira, who is a great hitter regardless of position.

[CubinNY]

honestly you have to take those pecota comps with a grain of salt when a guy hasn't even reached full-season ball yet.

 

that being said, wieters is going to be a beast and we should have picked him. his top pecota comp is mark teixeira, who is a great hitter regardless of position.

Did the Cubs actually pass on Wieters?

 

I don't really blame them for taking Prior though.

 

Yikes, what a dream, Tex at 1st and Wieters on his way.

[sneakypower]

oh, and Gaudin's #1 comp is Dennis Martinez.

 

Harden has the #1 "stuff" rating; Lincecum's the only one who comes close (41.14 & 37.45, respectively)

Edited February 2, 2009 by sneakypower

[Mephistopheles]

as it turns out, felix pie's 3rd comparable is carlos beltran

 

2006: Corey Patterson, others i don't recall and i can't find the xls anywhere

2007: Brandon Moss, Claudell Washington, Gus Bell, Grady Sizemore

2008: David Green, Junior Felix, Gary Geiger, Bobby Tolan

2009: Jose Moreno, Mike Davis, Carlos Beltran, Pedro Valdes

[Mephistopheles]

oh, and Gaudin's #1 comp is Dennis Martinez.

 

Sean Marshall has Chuck Finley on his you know...

[sneakypower]

hey meph check out the #17 hitter "upside" rating

 

but try not to look at #2

[Mephistopheles]

oh, and Gaudin's #1 comp is Dennis Martinez.

 

Harden has the #1 "stuff" rating; Lincecum's the only one who comes close (41.14 & 37.45, respectively)

 

well stuff is basically lots of ks no bbs and hs. harden had a 3:2 K:Baserunner ratio last season.

[Guest]

honestly you have to take those pecota comps with a grain of salt when a guy hasn't even reached full-season ball yet.

 

that being said, wieters is going to be a beast and we should have picked him. his top pecota comp is mark teixeira, who is a great hitter regardless of position.

Did the Cubs actually pass on Wieters?

 

I don't really blame them for taking Prior though.

 

Yikes, what a dream, Tex at 1st and Wieters on his way.

 

2007 Draft:

 

1. Tampa Bay: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt

2. Kansas City: Mike Moustakas, SS, Chatsworth HS (Los Angeles, CA)

3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (Anaheim, CA)

4. Pittsburgh: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson

5. Baltimore: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech

 

...

 

2001 Draft:

 

1. Minnesota: Joe Mauer, C, Cretin-Derham Hall HS (St. Paul, MN)

2. Chicago Cubs: Mark Prior, RHP, Southern Cal

3. Tampa Bay: Dewon Brazelton, RHP, Middle Tennessee St.

4. Philadelphia: Gavin Floyd, RHP, Mt. St. Joseph HS (Severna, MD)

5. Texas: Mark Teixeira, 3B, Georgia Tech

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why then would a 5 star prospect have such horrid comparisons? It makes no sense.

 

Because he's got the tools that impress scouts but not the production that impresses numbers people?

 

BP has him as a 5-Star Prospect.

[Mephistopheles]

hey meph check out the #17 hitter "upside" rating

 

but try not to look at #2

 

I know I don't like Ben Revere and I still don't like Ben Revere. He's the kind of guy that PECOTA (any other other projection system) is going to screw up on, mainly because he's way down the chain in low A. He had better be hitting like Rod Carew because he sure as hell has no power nor walks.

[Mephistopheles]

and the sim index for those two players are 0 and 8. In other words PECOTA is telling you PECOTA is trash.