2009 breakout prospects

[jersey cubs fan]

Lets face it, there are no Evan Longoria's here who are going to fly through the system.

 

I could see Cashner as maybe being the closest possibility for the fast track if they decide to turn him into a short reliever like what they did with Smardz last year. I don't believe that's very likely but Piniella likes power arms and there's a pretty good chance they'll need one down the stretch.

 

Yeah, but even if Cashner emerges as a bullpen candidate soon, that's still nothing compared to an Evan Longoria who actually significantly impacts the team.

[videographer]

Last season, I got the chance to see Brandon Guyer play. He looks and carries himself like a MLB and he was the most athletic player on the team that day. He played a shallow CF and made every play effortlessly. His arm was strong, he was fast at going back on balls and his stride was confident. He showed the ability to run the bases and posted a SB. At the plate however, he had problems. His swing looks good, but he swung through FBs and breaking pitches. When he did make contact, the ball jumped off his bat.

 

Overall, he has the look of a MLB, but his inability to make consistent contact at the plate has me concerned that he will not develop past AA or High A.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Last season, I got the chance to see Brandon Guyer play. He looks and carries himself like a MLB and he was the most athletic player on the team that day. He played a shallow CF and made every play effortlessly. His arm was strong, he was fast at going back on balls and his stride was confident. He showed the ability to run the bases and posted a SB. At the plate however, he had problems. His swing looks good, but he swung through FBs and breaking pitches. When he did make contact, the ball jumped off his bat.

 

Overall, he has the look of a MLB, but his inability to make consistent contact at the plate has me concerned that he will not develop past AA or High A.

 

When did you see him? It certainly looks like something clicked for him with the way he turned it on in the second half, especially in regards to making contact.

[Outshined_One]

Last season, I got the chance to see Brandon Guyer play. He looks and carries himself like a MLB and he was the most athletic player on the team that day. He played a shallow CF and made every play effortlessly. His arm was strong, he was fast at going back on balls and his stride was confident. He showed the ability to run the bases and posted a SB. At the plate however, he had problems. His swing looks good, but he swung through FBs and breaking pitches. When he did make contact, the ball jumped off his bat.

 

Overall, he has the look of a MLB, but his inability to make consistent contact at the plate has me concerned that he will not develop past AA or High A.

 

When did you see him? It certainly looks like something clicked for him with the way he turned it on in the second half, especially in regards to making contact.

 

He's got a good enough power swing that I think he could end up being a 20-25 HR guy if he continues developing. As memory serves me, he had a nice HR in Wrigley when the Chiefs played there last season. He's also selective enough at the plate that I'm not worried about his ability to make good contact.

 

What I'm worried about is whether he'll stick in CF. He strikes me as more of a corner guy and I don't think he'll be productive enough at the plate to be more than average at best in LF or RF.

[UK1679666180]

Last season, I got the chance to see Brandon Guyer play. He looks and carries himself like a MLB and he was the most athletic player on the team that day. He played a shallow CF and made every play effortlessly. His arm was strong, he was fast at going back on balls and his stride was confident. He showed the ability to run the bases and posted a SB. At the plate however, he had problems. His swing looks good, but he swung through FBs and breaking pitches. When he did make contact, the ball jumped off his bat.

 

Overall, he has the look of a MLB, but his inability to make consistent contact at the plate has me concerned that he will not develop past AA or High A.

 

When did you see him? It certainly looks like something clicked for him with the way he turned it on in the second half, especially in regards to making contact.

 

He's got a good enough power swing that I think he could end up being a 20-25 HR guy if he continues developing. He's also selective enough at the plate that I'm not worried about his ability to make good contact.

 

What I'm worried about is whether he'll stick in CF. He strikes me as more of a corner guy and I don't think he'll be productive enough at the plate to be more than average at best in LF or RF.

 

When I seen him I thought he was a corner OF'er playing CF.

[jame.gumb]

I'd like to vote for Jeffrey Antigua and Yohan Gonzalez.

[JeffH]

I don't expect any great impact, but I believe Randy Wells will take a meaningful step forward this season.

[Wrigley Rat]

seriously, six guys are not going to break out at each level. That would never happen even in the best farm system. As cubs fans we would be lucky to see one or two guys "breakout" total. That said i see Jay Jackson continuing his pitching dominance in higher levels and James Adduci establishing himself as an outfield prospect.

 

Lets face it, there are no Evan Longoria's here who are going to fly through the system.

The reason I listed six players per team was because I took "break out season" to mean a solid enough season to have the player move up significantly on the Top Prospect charts. I feel that those 18 players will make improvements towards their status in our farm system. I suppose I could have only listed a couple players, but I kind of got into it!

[craig]

I don't expect any great impact, but I believe Randy Wells will take a meaningful step forward this season.

 

Jeff, my memory is fading fast. But for some reason I'm thinking I thought (perhaps without merit) that Wells ended up September on the DL. Did I make that up?

 

Video, thanks for your observations on Guyer. As ping noted, it seems pretty safe to say he's not going to be a big-league CFer. But it's nice to hear that he looks like a major leaguer in the field and on the bases.

 

His hitting is obviously iffy. When you're hitting .269 as a 22-year-old in low-A, it's pretty obvious that evolving into a big-league hitter against big-league pitching is less than probable. But with the pop so that half of his hits were for extras, and in his first pro season, it's not beyond hope. We'll all be able to track his hitting stats, obviously. It's encouraging to get the input that if he can hit enough to be interesting, that the other aspects of his game look major-league.

 

With his injuries and football stuff, I'd imagine he might not be quite as advanced as you'd hope for a 23-year-old. So I assume they'll put him at Daytona. Hopefully he'll do pretty well there.

[videographer]

T-Tiger, I saw Guyer in early August.

[Cubswin11]

What happened to Tony Thomas this last year? He put up good numbers, in short season ball, after the 07 draft, but was bad last year after being touted as our 2B by 2010-2011. I think he is a good choice for a bounce back year, don't know if it would be considered a "break-out" year because of his expectations/projections going into last year.

 

Also if Kyler Burke doesn't step-up/show improvement on offense this year would there be any consideration to converting him to a pitcher? He had below average numbers last year, certainly not anything thats going to move him up through the organization. He is still young, 20/21, so he has time to develop. But since he has such a great arm that is always referenced/talked about why not give him a look at being a pitcher. He was a pitcher in HS and could sit 88-90 getting up to 93, with a solid-average breaking ball.

[craig]

What happened to Tony Thomas this last year? He put up good numbers, in short season ball, after the 07 draft, but was bad last year after being touted as our 2B by 2010-2011. I think he is a good choice for a bounce back year, don't know if it would be considered a "break-out" year because of his expectations/projections going into last year.

 

Also if Kyler Burke doesn't step-up/show improvement on offense this year would there be any consideration to converting him to a pitcher? He had below average numbers last year, certainly not anything thats going to move him up through the organization. He is still young, 20/21, so he has time to develop. But since he has such a great arm that is always referenced/talked about why not give him a look at being a pitcher. He was a pitcher in HS and could sit 88-90 getting up to 93, with a solid-average breaking ball.

 

I think it's unfortunate that Burke warmed up a bit in late July and August. That will probably encourage him and the org to give him at least another year as a hitter, where I think his chance is vanishingly small. A corner guy who can't get his bat to touch the ball against short-season pitching, no big-league future there. They should move him over to pitcher ASAP, but not likely this spring.

 

I would be very surprised if Thomas turned up. He was pretty consistent last year, after a decent April he hit in the .250-260's range ever subsequent month. He was a really bad hitter for a couple years in college before having a good 2007, but he's been a big key guy. Hard to get a lot of hits and be on base a lot when you're K/HR ratio is 111/7. Hard to see that he has enough power to hit enough HR's to balance out his high K's. When you burn so many of your AB's on K's, and have such a bad K/HR ratio, he'd need a .400+ BABIP to hit .300. Limited power and problematic average is not a good combo for a bat-first questionable fielder.

[UK1679666180]

I'm extremely biased towards Thomas, I was talking to a buddy of mine who pitched in the NWL in '07 and said that Thomas was clearly the best pure hitter in that league. But, it appears he's suffering from the same thing he did his 1st two years at FSU as far as the high Ks killing his production. I just wonder if he has fallen into bad habits again as far as his swing getting long. He has more than athletic ability to play 2B with good range but has only fair hands. I hope he does repeat the FSL again and maybe they rushed him as far as skipping Peoria.

[the splendid splinter]

Questionable defense? I dont think so, ask Thomas doubleplay partner Darwin Barney. If anything last year Thomas might have overdone it with his fielding helped by Bobby Dickerson and Ryne Sandberg in the fall of 07. The results were great, Thomas in his 1st full season made a total of 6 errors. He got off to a good start at the plate and then really struggled. In the FSL playoffs in over 40 at bats Thomas hit well over 400 and close to 500 and was the FSL MVP of the playoffs. Personally I'm writing off Hawaii because it was a long 1st season. I'll bet Thomas and Barney will play well in Tenn this season.

[JeffH]

I don't expect any great impact, but I believe Randy Wells will take a meaningful step forward this season.

 

Jeff, my memory is fading fast. But for some reason I'm thinking I thought (perhaps without merit) that Wells ended up September on the DL. Did I make that up?

 

Craig, quit making things up, willya?

 

He may have had some arm issues late in the season, but I don't remember that.

 

He was never put on the major league DL last season, but there's no incentive for a team to do that anyway, what with no roster limitation after September 1st.

[Guest]

Yeah, Wells was hurt. Shoulder or arm fatigue, I don't remember which. That's why he only threw once in September. But there's no point to put him on the DL once the rosters have expanded.

[JeffH]

Yeah, Wells was hurt. Shoulder or arm fatigue, I don't remember which. That's why he only threw once in September. But there's no point to put him on the DL once the rosters have expanded.

 

Cal and Craig - This month's VineLine says that Wells had a stress fracture. It doesn't say where.

[biittner77]

Lets face it, there are no Evan Longoria's here who are going to fly through the system.

 

I could see Cashner as maybe being the closest possibility for the fast track if they decide to turn him into a short reliever like what they did with Smardz last year. I don't believe that's very likely but Piniella likes power arms and there's a pretty good chance they'll need one down the stretch.

 

Yeah, but even if Cashner emerges as a bullpen candidate soon, that's still nothing compared to an Evan Longoria who actually significantly impacts the team.

 

That's certainly true but how many teams have a player of Longoria's caliber just waiting to be called up? Maybe 3

[falcon]

How about players that are not even listed in the top 30 who will emerge out from under the radar this year? My choice......outfielder Jericho Jones. This is a guy that turned down being drafted as a pitcher in the 3rd round because he loves to hit and play everyday. He led the Arizona Rookie league in hitting for the majority of the summer but tailed off in mid August.

[Outshined_One]

How about players that are not even listed in the top 30 who will emerge out from under the radar this year?

 

The problem with that is you can make an argument that pretty much anyone in this system could be in the Top 30. This system is a bit of a mess.

[craig]

Yeah, Wells was hurt. Shoulder or arm fatigue, I don't remember which. That's why he only threw once in September. But there's no point to put him on the DL once the rosters have expanded.

 

Cal and Craig - This month's VineLine says that Wells had a stress fracture. It doesn't say where.

 

Thanks, Jeff. Was their any implication of whether or how it would affect his upcoming season? I think a fractured leg and I think six weeks cast, but no impact 12 weeks later, so that a September fracture might have no impact five months later when guys go to camp this month. Hopefully that's how it will go for Wells.

[craig]

...I was talking to a buddy of mine who pitched in the NWL in '07 and said that Thomas was clearly the best pure hitter in that league. But, it appears he's suffering from the same thing he did his 1st two years at FSU as far as the high Ks killing his production. I just wonder if he has fallen into bad habits again as far as his swing getting long.....

 

I admit I don't really understand this. What does it mean to be a "pure hitter"? And to what degree does it make any difference?

 

In the NWL in '07, Thomas whiffed 22.5% of his AB. That's a college guy in a short-season league. He didn't hit with power, and wasn't scouted/projected too. So was he really a pure hitter, and if so what good did it do production-wise if it neither correlates with any power nor with the ability to actually touch the ball versus weak low-A pitching?

 

Like I say, I don't really know what if anything "pure hitting" really means. It's obviously meant to be positive, and I've tended to assume it implied an asthetically pleasing swing, with good balance, probably with the ability to look good and look balanced regardless of which corner of the strike zone the pitch comes; I always correlate "pure hitter" with a contact hitter; I envision a pure hitter as having a compact, consistent swing that is slump-resistent; and I envision a pure hitter having good pitch recognition so that he isn't looking foolishly off-balance versus breaking pitches. I don't imagine a guy who looks awkwardly off-balance to be easily termed "pure" like a guy who always looks balanced. I'm likely inferring much more than is perhaps actually implied by the term.

 

It certainly doesn't seem to apply in Thomas's case. When a non-power college hitter is K'ing over 22% of the time versus short-season pitching in 07, that doesn't seem "pure" to me. This year he was a 26% K-guy. And he was a huge K-man in college, although his junior year he reduced it to merely poor. So I'm probably misdefining it. Because if he's whiffing all that often, I would think either he's swinging prettily through the air but not touching the ball; or else he's looking awkward and off-balance as he's getting baffled by breaking stuff. But something isn't right. Either he isn't very "pure" or else "pure" doesn't really get you very far.

[sandbergcubs]

lets re open this topic and see what people think now??

[Tyrant]

I don't expect any great impact, but I believe Randy Wells will take a meaningful step forward this season.

 

Well, kudos to you.

[Outshined_One]

Five Sleepers who Break Out

 

Cody Hams (Aussie who will be in his first season in the US)

Casey Coleman (liked him when I saw him, has a great mentality and decent stuff)

Larry Suarez (should recover from TJS and put himself back on the map)

Jericho Jones (underrated, should move fast through the system)

Darwin Barney (won't be a world-beater, but gets the most out of his tools and had a nice showing in the AFL)

 

One BIG Sleeper: Jon Nagle (2008 draftee who had some injury issues, but has a very nice ceiling)

 

Five Disappointments

 

Tyler Colvin (I like him...but I just have a bad feeling about him next season)

Jovan Rosa (still not a fan, still think he'll end up at 1B)

Aaron Shafer (getting Brownlie vibes off him)

Kyler Burke (grumble)

Ryan Harvey (needs to be converted to P)

 

Let's see...Suarez, Nagle, and Hams are all still down in EXST, so it's hard to guess at how well they'll do once they start up in Boise and the AZ League. Jericho Jones was just promoted to Daytona, so we'll have to wait and see. Coleman was a pleasant surprise when the Cubs jumped him to Tennessee, although he has had a few struggles in AA. Darwin Barney has put up decent, but not particularly noteworthy numbers in AA.

 

4/5 on disappointments, which sucks since I was hoping I'd be dead wrong about all of them. Colvin's disappointments have mostly stemmed from injuries (TJS rehab and a nasty concussion). Rosa hasn't been hitting well in Daytona. Shafer's velocity has indeed been a huge problem for him this season. Burke has done quite well in Peoria, which he hopefully can sustain over the course of the season. And Harvey, well, it was nice knowing him.