2009 Projection: Josh Viters

[videographer]

To spice up January and give everyone something to ponder, I have created a few 2009 projections of Cub prospects. Without seeing these players (usually), we rely on other variables to give us an indication of how the prospects are doing. The following is a template of what to expect in 2009 if the prospects maintain their status and in some cases, exceed projections.

 

2009 Projection: Josh Vitters

MLB projection: All-Star 3B

Strengths: Bat speed, plat coverage, strong arm, 20-10 vision

Weaknesses: Foot speed, defensive foot work, accurate throwing

 

There are many statistics and clues to follow any minor league prospect throughout the season. Each player has a different set of expectations to meet the projection of their MLB prospect status. Here are a set of reasonable variables to follow Josh Vitters in 2009 on his projection as an All-Star 3B.

 

He must begin and play the whole year on a full season team, either Peoria or Daytona. He should stay healthy. Another trip to the DL may give cause for concern that he is injury prone. A promotion during the year is a plus. Ending the season at High A is a good sign he is holding his status. However, starting at Daytona and being demoted to Peoria does not change his status. A promotion to AA (on merit/no politics) in the last month of the season is an excellent indication he is on track to be special.

 

Good variables to maintain status (at least one MLB All-Star appearance):

400 or more AB (measure of health and toughness)

.280-.300 Avg.

15-20 HR

65-80 RBI

25 or more 2B

.480 or above Slg %

Minimum of 190 total bases

Multiple hitting streaks over 10 games

At least one hot week of outstanding output (named player of the week)

Fewer than 30 errors

Less than 100 Ks or 1/4 ratio

 

Variable for special status (top 3 position standing (speculative) in MLB):

Above .325 Avg., 20+HR, 90+RBI, 35+2B, .520+Slg %, 250+TB, multiple player of the week awards, a monster week(s) of output, consistent top 10 BA hot prospect sheet ranking.

 

I left out OPS because Vitters is an aggressive hitter who may never have an abundance of walks. His plat coverage and hitting ability identify him as a run producer and thus outweigh the importance of a high OBP at this time. Total bases/RBIs over OBP may be a better indication of his value. Vitters status does not change if he misses a variable or two. However, if he misses more than three, his status will most likely change as well as his future as a Cub (trade bait?).

[Outshined_One]

As a general comment on your projections, I am enormously leery of putting much weight on batting average and runs batted in as a method of measuring a player's worth.

 

I will grant that batting average has its place, but thanks to a lower quality of pitching and opposing defense Vitters will face in Peoria/Daytona/Tenn, it will be easier for him to sustain a higher batting average than you would see at higher levels. Don't get me wrong, an especially low batting average would raise a lot of red flags with Vitters. But, in general, it might be more worthwhile to look at his batting average in the context of other stats. BABIP, Line Drive Percentage, and Fly Ball Percentage are all good examples of stats that can illustrate whether a .330 batting average was luck or whether it was legitimate.

 

On the other hand, where I see little value in measuring a major league player based on his RBIs, I see almost no value in evaluating a minor league player based on that same stat. It is heavily team-dependent. It does not serve as an effective measure of "clutch" or any sort of situational hitting skill. I do not see it as a future predictor of a prospect's production when that prospect reaches the majors.

 

To me, the critical stats for Vitters' future lie in his IsoD and OBP. While I am enamored with Vitters' tools and potential, I worry that his hacking tendencies could serious detract from his pitch recognition abilities; that he'll be swinging at pitches he should lay off of. From what I have seen of Vitters and read about him, his aggressive approach at the plate and excellent hand-eye coordination have served him well thus far, but as he advances through the minors, he will face better pitchers who will know how to exploit those aggressive tendencies. We've seen this story a number of times with other prospects in this system (Dopirak, Harvey, etc...) and I worry that Vitters might not develop the pitch recognition skills he will need to reach his ceiling.

 

So, with that in mind, I think a good standard for Vitters to maintain his lofty prospect status would be to replicate what Mike Moustakas did this past season in the MWL. My gut is that Vitters would hit for more power and walk less than Moustakas, but anything around that range would be a good year for Vitters. Anything better than that, well, that'd be a really good thing. :D

[TruffleShuffle]

His plat coverage and hitting ability identify him as a run producer and thus outweigh the importance of a high OBP at this time. Total bases/RBIs over OBP may be a better indication of his value.

 

you can't just leave out a stat or a skill (walking) because you don't think he's going to be that good at it. if he's going to be a poor or average obp guy then that should be weighed in.

[the splendid splinter]

1st of all Dopirak was an older 19 yr old in his 2nd yr at Boise.

and Harvey was 20 yrs old in his 2nd yr which was at Boise.

Vitters played most of his 2nd yr at 18.

 

Ab K's Avg xbh

Vitters 259 45 328 32

Dopirak 192 58 240 17

Harvey 231 78 264 22

[videographer]

TruffleShuffle, I think that in Vitters first full season (which is my projection) he will be encouraged to be aggressive. Walks (patience) will be emphasized later in his development. His ability as a run producer will be more pronounced this year with his aggressive approach. Without typing out a long string of nomial variables considering BAvg. in scoring position, 2 outs, etc., I condensed this production into RBIs. It is easier to follow on a daily basis and quick to qauntitate.

 

Vitters won't mature into his MLB projection for a few years. My 2009 projection is meant to help measure his first steps on that ladder. I think we shouldn't overemphasize all the statistical products in his first year. Let's see what he does and then come up with more advanced benchmarks in future years. The kid has our weight of expectations and that of past failed uber prospects.

[CubinNY]

TruffleShuffle, I think that in Vitters first full season (which is my projection) he will be encouraged to be aggressive.

Why would they want to reinforce bad behavior? He's already demonstrated that he can put the bat on the ball. It seems to me that his development is at least partly contingent on his ability to swing at pitches he can drive. *Most* great hitters aren't hackers.

[UK1679666180]

TruffleShuffle, I think that in Vitters first full season (which is my projection) he will be encouraged to be aggressive.

Why would they want to reinforce bad behavior? He's already demonstrated that he can put the bat on the ball. It seems to me that his development is at least partly contingent on his ability to swing at pitches he can drive. *Most* great hitters aren't hackers.

 

Barry Bonds was extremely aggressive, there's a difference between being aggressive and being a hacker.

 

An aggressive hitter to me is someone that swings at strikes and regardless of count will always swing hard even with two strikes and doesn't watch too many called 3rd strikes.

[CubinNY]

TruffleShuffle, I think that in Vitters first full season (which is my projection) he will be encouraged to be aggressive.

Why would they want to reinforce bad behavior? He's already demonstrated that he can put the bat on the ball. It seems to me that his development is at least partly contingent on his ability to swing at pitches he can drive. *Most* great hitters aren't hackers.

 

Barry Bonds was extremely aggressive, there's a difference between being aggressive and being a hacker.

 

An aggressive hitter to me is someone that swings at strikes and regardless of count will always swing hard even with two strikes and doesn't watch too many called 3rd strikes.

I'm all for being aggressive as you have defined it, but I don't think that is the way vidographer is using it. Barry took his walks.

[UK1679666180]

TruffleShuffle, I think that in Vitters first full season (which is my projection) he will be encouraged to be aggressive.

Why would they want to reinforce bad behavior? He's already demonstrated that he can put the bat on the ball. It seems to me that his development is at least partly contingent on his ability to swing at pitches he can drive. *Most* great hitters aren't hackers.

 

Barry Bonds was extremely aggressive, there's a difference between being aggressive and being a hacker.

 

An aggressive hitter to me is someone that swings at strikes and regardless of count will always swing hard even with two strikes and doesn't watch too many called 3rd strikes.

I'm all for being aggressive as you have defined it, but I don't think that is the way vidographer is using it. Barry took his walks.

 

Why the hell would the Cubs want to teach him to not have a good strike zone judgment?

 

They want him to swing at pitches he can hit, swing hard yet mechanically fluid, I don't know how videographer defines it, but I'm sure the cubs approach is similar to the approach I mentioned as far as aggressiveness. As he matures, I'm sure they'll work more on the adjustment phase of hitting as well as the mental toughness aspect.

[CubinNY]

TruffleShuffle, I think that in Vitters first full season (which is my projection) he will be encouraged to be aggressive.

Why would they want to reinforce bad behavior? He's already demonstrated that he can put the bat on the ball. It seems to me that his development is at least partly contingent on his ability to swing at pitches he can drive. *Most* great hitters aren't hackers.

 

Barry Bonds was extremely aggressive, there's a difference between being aggressive and being a hacker.

 

An aggressive hitter to me is someone that swings at strikes and regardless of count will always swing hard even with two strikes and doesn't watch too many called 3rd strikes.

I'm all for being aggressive as you have defined it, but I don't think that is the way vidographer is using it. Barry took his walks.

 

Why the hell would the Cubs want to teach him to not have a good strike zone judgment?

 

They want him to swing at pitches he can hit, swing hard yet mechanically fluid, I don't know how videographer defines it, but I'm sure the cubs approach is similar to the approach I mentioned as far as aggressiveness. As he matures, I'm sure they'll work more on the adjustment phase of hitting as well as the mental toughness aspect.

I don't think they would or do, but within the context of this thread vidoagrapher has downplayed OBP and seemed to intimate that being aggressive will come at the expense of OBP. IMO, that's bad behavior.

[Mephistopheles]

Projections for minor league hitters and pitchers are useless. Just my two cents.

[craig]

I think video's point, and ping's comments, were appropriate. Good hitters often recognize strikes, swing at strikes, and are able to hit strikes. If Vitters is doing that, I don't think the Cubs will nag him about it this year. A lot of guys who walk a lot take a significant number of strikes; I'm not sure Vitters will do that this year. And I agree with video that not doing so won't mean he'll be a bust. Vitters may have a good year and be developing favorably, without necessarily walking a lot.

 

I think video's thing overall was pretty reasonable. He's not setting up exceptional targets. I think the HR's may be rather high. 15+ HR? Not sure that's very likely, or that the lack thereof will mean he won't be a 25-HR guy in the majors someday. I think that at that level, I'm looking for red flags, reasons to know why I should project a guy to bust.

 

I think video is basically marking out production levels that would not be indicative of future bust-hood.

[CubinNY]

I think video's point, and ping's comments, were appropriate. Good hitters often recognize strikes, swing at strikes, and are able to hit strikes. If Vitters is doing that, I don't think the Cubs will nag him about it this year. A lot of guys who walk a lot take a significant number of strikes; I'm not sure Vitters will do that this year. And I agree with video that not doing so won't mean he'll be a bust. Vitters may have a good year and be developing favorably, without necessarily walking a lot.

 

I think video's thing overall was pretty reasonable. He's not setting up exceptional targets. I think the HR's may be rather high. 15+ HR? Not sure that's very likely, or that the lack thereof will mean he won't be a 25-HR guy in the majors someday. I think that at that level, I'm looking for red flags, reasons to know why I should project a guy to bust.

 

I think video is basically marking out production levels that would not be indicative of future bust-hood.

As O_O pointed out the lack of walks are a redflag. The time to develop plate discipline is at the lower levels where pitchers don't have as much command. If he doesn't walk it doesn't mean he's a bust, but it's another issue to deal with. If his k's increase significantly (and he's not taking walks) it's probably worse than not walking much.

 

However, the thing I want to see is good health. Good health and decent number, in that order.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've read on a couple occasions that Vitters has been too trusting of his outstanding contact ability, swinging at pitches that aren't his pitch because he can put okay wood on them. To me, an increase in driving the ball(extra base hits, LD%) would mark just as important an adjustment as an increase in walks. Ideally they both would improve(and a side benefit of driving the ball more should be at least a little improvement in K/BB), but I'd be happy if he made strides with either.

[videographer]

Good comments from everybody. The response to my thread has centered on aggressiveness and walks. My de-emphasis on Vitters' OPS in his first full season is rooted in articles I have read about scouts and player development personel wanting young prospects to be aggressive in their approach early to learn what they can and cannot hit, i.e., power stroke, inside out swing, holes and length of swing. This is usually a 2 year process. Teams want to know what kind of bat a player has and how he handles adversity.

 

Yes, plate discipline is most important, but often players are most receptive to instruction after failure. I agree that Vitters cannot reach his projection unless he develops plate discipline. I think once he knows what he can do over a full season, his OPS will go up as he refines his approach at different levels.

 

Also, there is an underlying current to the responses in this thread that has not been put in writing. Ty Colvin's lack of development per plate disipline has everyone concerned the same will happen to Vitters. Vitters' talent is superior to Colvin and he is younger (fewer bad habits). I understand the concern, but want to see a full season of results.

 

And one last thing. I will throw this out to rile the crowd, the patience of a great hitter is not necessarily measured in OPB. Waiting for the right pitch to drive has just as much disipline as working the count. Vlad Guerrero is a classic example and may work as Vitters' profile down the line.

[Outshined_One]

And one last thing. I will throw this out to rile the crowd, the patience of a great hitter is not necessarily measured in OPB. Waiting for the right pitch to drive has just as much disipline as working the count. Vlad Guerrero is a classic example and may work as Vitters' profile down the line.

 

Barry Bonds is also an excellent example of this, as was discussed above. However, also as mentioned above, there is a difference between being aggressive and being a hacker. Vlad Guerrero is also a good example of this. Despite his reputation, Guerrero has a career IsoD of .066. He takes his swings, but he also has a good enough eye that is he is willing to let bad pitches go by and take walks.

 

My primary concern with Vitters and the Cubs' approach to him is based on this issue. In the time I have been following prospects with great interests, I find that a player developing good plate patience later in his career tends to be the exception more than the norm. That may be an incorrect perception on my part, but I worry that, with someone like Vitters, he will develop bad habits as a result of this emphasis on aggression and that he will not be able to develop plate discipline in the way he should. That may not be the case, but I will be concerned if, next season, he does not post decent walk numbers.

[Cubswin11]

Vitters started the year slow due to a hand injury, ended up returning to short-season ball, and hit everything in sight. He has an easy, smooth, quick swing that would be that classic "sweet" left-hander's swing if it wasn't for the fact that he hits right-handed. He doesn't have great loft in his swing, but is strong and makes extremely hard contact; he led the Northwest League in doubles at age 19 and as he fills out a little bit, some of those will go over (or through) the wall. He's fringe-average at third base; he has plenty of arm and his footwork is improving, although he's not likely to ever be plus over there. If there's a concern, it's the very low walk total; he's not a hacker or even impatient, but is very aggressive, and that works as long as he's ahead of the pitchers and can make so much solid contact. If his patience doesn't improve and he doesn't continue to hit .320-plus, his ceiling will start to drop. If the patience comes, he's a potential No. 3 hitter who'll hit plenty of doubles and 25-plus home runs with a high average.

 

Vitters ranked #14 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355

[Guest]

Vitters started the year slow due to a hand injury, ended up returning to short-season ball, and hit everything in sight. He has an easy, smooth, quick swing that would be that classic "sweet" left-hander's swing if it wasn't for the fact that he hits right-handed. He doesn't have great loft in his swing, but is strong and makes extremely hard contact; he led the Northwest League in doubles at age 19 and as he fills out a little bit, some of those will go over (or through) the wall. He's fringe-average at third base; he has plenty of arm and his footwork is improving, although he's not likely to ever be plus over there. If there's a concern, it's the very low walk total; he's not a hacker or even impatient, but is very aggressive, and that works as long as he's ahead of the pitchers and can make so much solid contact. If his patience doesn't improve and he doesn't continue to hit .320-plus, his ceiling will start to drop. If the patience comes, he's a potential No. 3 hitter who'll hit plenty of doubles and 25-plus home runs with a high average.

 

Vitters ranked #14 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355

 

Josh Vitters was 18 for all but the last 6 games of last season.