HOF BBWAA Ballot (Henderson & Jim Rice)

[bukie]

Apologies for the Neyer gushing, but here's another article on why Rickey's SB record is one of the most untouchable records in baseball going forward.

[OleMissCub]

Just did some research and Jim Rice has the second lowest WARP3 of anyone ever elected by the BBWAA behind Bill Terry. Some other HOFers technically have lower WARP3 numbers but most all of them have exceptions for why they are so low such as wars, injuries, or the color barrier eating up a chunk of their careers.

 

 

In order of most recent election:

 

Rice 80.2

Henderson: 189.8

Ripken: 173.1

Gwynn: 122.1

Sandberg: 108.7

Boggs: 139.2

Molitor: 131.7

Murray: 134.4

Carter: 115.9

Smith: 132.5

Puckett: 87.1

Winfield: 125.2

Perez: 106.4

Yount: 132.0

Fisk: 115.7

Brett: 137.7

Schmidt: 157.0

Jackson: 131.0

Carew: 122.9

Morgan: 165.3

Yaz: 131.7

Bench: 120.5

Stargell: 105.6

Williams: 113.1

McCovey: 112.7

Brock: 89.9

Killebrew: 94.5

Aparicio: 91.2

B. Robinson: 119.3

Aaron: 217.6

F. Robinson: 167.6

Kaline: 122.9

Mays: 220.1

Mathews: 146.6

Banks: 119.9

Lindstrom: 56.6 (2,600 less AB's than Rice)

Kiner: 71.3 (3,000 less AB's than Rice)

Mantle: 155.3

Clemente: 127.8

Berra: 108.8

Boudreau: 110.1

Musial: 191.5

Medwick: 95.4

Campy: 67.8 (Negro League discount)

Williams: 156.8

Appling: 127.9

J. Robinson: 91.5

Greenberg: 77.0 (WWII discount)

Cronin: 112.6

Hartnett: 107.5

DiMaggio: 121.9

Terry: 75.3 (1800 less AB's than Rice)

Maranville: 92.9

Dickey: 102.9

Simmons: 99.8

Gehringer: 122.4

Ott: 178.0

Heilmann: 95.6

Foxx: 119.9

Waner: 124.6

Traynor: 87.7

Frisch: 118.8

Hornsby: 162.8

Keeler: 105.7

Collins: 180.6

Speaker: 174.6

Lajoie: 163.8

Wagner: 203.0

Ruth: 227.8

Cobb: 194.3

Edited January 12, 2009 by OleMissCub

[bukie]

Headline candidates for the HOF over the next 3 years:

 

2010: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga, Robin Ventura, Fred McGriff

2011: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Franco, John Olerud, Juan Gonzalez, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez

2012: Javy Lopez, Carl Everett, Bernie Williams, Eric Young, JT Snow, Terry Mulholland

[OleMissCub]

Also, the only outfielders elected by the BBWAA with an OPS+ lower than Rice's (128) are Kirby Puckett (124), Keeler (126), & Brock (109).

[OleMissCub]

What Bill James has to say about Rice from Baseball Abstract:

 

Probably the most overrated player of the last thirty years. He was a pretty good defensive left fielder, and didn't get credit for that because he wasn't Yastrzemski. But he was a poor runner, and, as a hitter, he was helped by playing in Fenway. He led the league in grounding into double plays four straight seasons, and has one of the highest GIDP rates in history.

 

Jim Rice was one of the best left fielders I had out there, but the fans never liked Jim Rice. No one could like Jim Rice. Jim Rice had one of the biggest egos I've ever seen. he treated people so abruptly, just had no need for anybody, gave no time back to the fans, just was not a nice person. - Bill Lee in Fenway.

[CubinNY]

Headline candidates for the HOF over the next 3 years:

 

2010: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga, Robin Ventura, Fred McGriff

2011: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Franco, John Olerud, Juan Gonzalez, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez

2012: Javy Lopez, Carl Everett, Bernie Williams, Eric Young, JT Snow, Terry Mulholland

 

Alomar and Larkin should be the last of the pre-steroid era players to get serious consideration. Alomar is a sure fire HOFer, Larkin is borderline.

 

If they don't let in Big Mac I could see one of those years as not having anyone elected.

[Tracer Bullet]

I can't believe all the whining finally got Rice in, while Santo got nowhere and Trammel and Raines appear to be long shots (not to mention Blyleven).

 

I hate the BBWAA.

[Derwood]

those #'s only go to strengthen my opinion that Puckett doesn't belong either.

[rocket]

Man, if Larkin's career had started 5 years sooner he'd be a first ballot HOF'er no question.

[TruffleShuffle]

Headline candidates for the HOF over the next 3 years:

 

2010: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga, Robin Ventura, Fred McGriff

2011: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Franco, John Olerud, Juan Gonzalez, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez

2012: Javy Lopez, Carl Everett, Bernie Williams, Eric Young, JT Snow, Terry Mulholland

 

2010: r. alomar should be a no-brainer, and i think barry larkin is close to being a no-brainer. edgar martinez was a great hitter, but he didn't really do anything til his late 20s and had no defensive value, so he's out. mcgriff was a mediocre fielder and didn't have enough "great" years for me. galarraga and ventura, no way, though ventura is probably closer than people realize.

 

2011: bagwell is a no brainer. palmeiro won't get in because of the steroid stuff; to me he's pretty borderline if you leave that out but (knowing nothing about the roids) i'd probably vote yes. franco was always pretty good but not great. i think olerud was always badly underrated, but he's not a hall of famer. i don't even think the last four names on the list require any discussion.

 

2012: what a terrible list. the only guy who merits discussion is bernie williams. if he'd stayed very good into his mid 30s i would've given him a shot, but he dropped off pretty sharply beyond around 32. i think a guy who does nothing later in his career has to have overwhelming numbers at his peak, and williams didn't. so he's out.

[Derwood]

Alomar spit his way out of the HoF, at least first ballot

[RynoRules]

Alomar spit his way out of the HoF, at least first ballot

 

I don't think that will matter in the final analysis. He was dominant for ten years.

 

I have made this argument before, I know, but I think Bernie Williams should get in. Perhaps not on the first ballot, but I think he should get in.

[Derwood]

Alomar spit his way out of the HoF, at least first ballot

 

I don't think that will matter in the final analysis. He was dominant for ten years.

 

It shouldn't, but the BBWAA are notorious for penalizing players who "didn't play the right way" or somehow "put a black eye" on the game. It's why we'll never see Albert Belle get serious consideration, not to mention a slew of possible (but never convicted) steroid users

[TruffleShuffle]

Alomar spit his way out of the HoF, at least first ballot

 

I don't think that will matter in the final analysis. He was dominant for ten years.

 

It shouldn't, but the BBWAA are notorious for penalizing players who "didn't play the right way" or somehow "put a black eye" on the game. It's why we'll never see Albert Belle get serious consideration, not to mention a slew of possible (but never convicted) steroid users

 

i believe the phrase is "put a black guy on the game."

[UMFan83]

Bagwell should be first ballot. He had a great career before the supposed "steroids era" began.

[TruffleShuffle]

BP on trammell:

 

Which brings us to Alan Trammell, who most certainly does have a real case for the Hall, if nowhere near the support he deserves. He spent 20 seasons as a Tiger, 15 of them as their regular shortstop, arriving in late 1977 along with Lance Parrish and Jack Morris, and debuting in the same game as Lou Whitaker, his regular middle-infield partner through 1994. He excelled both at the plate and in the field, led the World Champion 1984 Tigers in WARP (10.2; he was also the World Series MVP), and should have been the AL MVP in 1987, when he went .343/.402/.551 with 28 HR and 105 RBI, losing the vote to 47-HR outfielder George Bell. According to WARP, he was five wins better than Bell (9.7 to 4.7), though Roger Clemens (11.2, with a 20-9, 2.97 ERA, 256-K season) and Wade Boggs (10.4, off of a .363/.461/.588 year with 24 HR and 108 RBI) topped them both.

 

Trammell not only clears the JAWS standards by a wide margin, his score is better than all but five of the 20 shortstops in the Hall of Fame: Honus Wagner (117.5), Cal Ripken (89.7), Arky Vaughan (84.5), Robin Yount (83.9), and Ozzie Smith (83.3). Three of them were contemporaries, and while Trammell is a step below that trio in WARP, that's mostly a function of late-career playing time. He holds his own as far as EQA and fielding within that group.

 

I've thrown in Barry Larkin, who reaches the ballot next year and who may well face a similar level of indifference from the voters, whose expectations for what constitute a great shortstop have been altered by the Alex Rodriguezes and Derek Jeters of the last decade and a half. That's an issue for another day, and it shouldn't detract from Trammell's case. Overall, his peak score ranks 12th among shortstops, his career score ranks ninth, and his JAWS score ranks eighth. That's a Hall of Famer.

 

BP's explanation of JAWS:

 

The goal of JAWS is to identify candidates who are as good or better than the average Hall of Famer at their position, a bar set so as to avoid further diluting the quality of the institution's membership.

 

 

JAWS endorsed henderson (duh), raines, trammell, mcgwire and blyleven as hall of famers. please give JAWS a vote.

[CubinNY]

Bagwell should be first ballot. He had a great career before the supposed "steroids era" began.

Bagwell came up in 1991. Some people think the era started in 1988, some say 1992, however, "the steroid era" probably will be bracketed to just after the players strike in 1994 to 2006 (50 game suspension). We could unreasonably stretch that to 1998 and you would have a point. However, he was a remarkably consistent player with no evidence to suggest he was juiced, and was one of my favorites. He should be a no brainer but he's still tainted like everyone else.

[Tarver]

Rice? yuk. I fully expect to see Grace, Damon, and B. Williams in there in about ten years.

[OleMissCub]

Got this from another site:

 

Ten best seasons of Jim Rice and Frank Howard:

 

____/......Rice......../.....Howard......../

1.- 157 OPS+ 46 Hrs 1.-178 OPS+ 48 Hrs

2.- 154 OPS+ 39 Hrs 2.-170 OPS+ 44 Hrs

3.- 147 OPS+ 39 Hrs 3.-170 OPS+ 44 Hrs

4.- 136 OPS+ 20 Hrs 4.-153 OPS+ 36 Hrs

5.- 130 OPS+ 24 Hrs 5.-149 OPS+ 28 Hrs

6.- 127 OPS+ 22 Hrs 6.-147 OPS+ 31 Hrs

7.- 123 OPS+ 27 Hrs 7.-144 OPS+ 26 Hrs

8.- 122 OPS+ 24 Hrs 8.-138 OPS+ 21 Hrs

9.- 120 OPS+ 25 Hrs 9.-127 OPS+ 18 Hrs

10.-116 OPS+ 17 Hrs 10.-119 OPS+ 15 Hrs

 

Frank Howard: 6,488 AB's .273/.352/.499, 382 HR, 1119 RBI, 142 OPS+

Jim Rice: ......8,225 AB's .298/.352/.502, 382 HR, 1451 RBI, 128 OPS+

 

Only difference is that Rice played for great teams in Boston and Howard played for crap teams in Washington. Howard only got 6 votes for the Hall of Fame, EVER.

[bhogg]

Yeah, but was Howard feared?

 

Blyleven and Trammell boggle my mind. The writers are complete idiots for missing those two guys --- -especially Bert.

[TruffleShuffle]

Rice? yuk. I fully expect to see Grace, Damon, and B. Williams in there in about ten years.

 

yeah damon played for both the yankees and red sox, i think that makes him a lock.

[Illini Iceman]

Got this from another site:

 

Ten best seasons of Jim Rice and Frank Howard:

 

____/......Rice......../.....Howard......../

1.- 157 OPS+ 46 Hrs 1.-178 OPS+ 48 Hrs

2.- 154 OPS+ 39 Hrs 2.-170 OPS+ 44 Hrs

3.- 147 OPS+ 39 Hrs 3.-170 OPS+ 44 Hrs

4.- 136 OPS+ 20 Hrs 4.-153 OPS+ 36 Hrs

5.- 130 OPS+ 24 Hrs 5.-149 OPS+ 28 Hrs

6.- 127 OPS+ 22 Hrs 6.-147 OPS+ 31 Hrs

7.- 123 OPS+ 27 Hrs 7.-144 OPS+ 26 Hrs

8.- 122 OPS+ 24 Hrs 8.-138 OPS+ 21 Hrs

9.- 120 OPS+ 25 Hrs 9.-127 OPS+ 18 Hrs

10.-116 OPS+ 17 Hrs 10.-119 OPS+ 15 Hrs

 

Frank Howard: 6,488 AB's .273/.352/.499, 382 HR, 1119 RBI, 142 OPS+

Jim Rice: ......8,225 AB's .298/.352/.502, 382 HR, 1451 RBI, 128 OPS+

 

Only difference is that Rice played for great teams in Boston and Howard played for crap teams in Washington. Howard only got 6 votes for the Hall of Fame, EVER.

 

I'd guess that at least 75% of the voters don't know what OPS+ is. However, they would look at Rice's .298 BA (vs .273 for Howard) and 332 more RBI's and say Rice has the better overall numbers.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Yeah, but was Howard feared?

 

 

Yes, he most certainly was.

[bhogg]

Yeah, but was Howard feared?

 

 

Yes, he most certainly was.

 

 

unpossible! Jime Rice was the only feared baseball player of all time!!!!! FEAR FEAR FEAR.

 

 

I think the writers just wanted to add some spice to the pre HoF ceremony movie night. .. .

[bhogg]

Howard should get in the HoF on nickname, alone.

 

THE CAPITAL PUNISHER!!!