Dunn is awesome...No he's not...Yes he is!!!

[inari]

I couldn't possibly disagree with this more. Devaluing BA to the point of nothingness is just plain stupid. But hey, maybe we can just walk our way around the bases all day, that'd be fun.

 

Oh my God, awesome!

[Derwood]

Sabermetrics at it's worst. :banghead:

 

Just so you know, Dunn's career average with RISP is actually .225, not .241.

 

and his OPS?

[Tyrant]

 

You're a fool if you think HRs = production.

 

Yay.

[AZCub]

 

Batting average has its merits, but not on its own. Take this for example:

 

Of course, and I understand that. BA is NOT a king stat. No stat is.

 

Using numbers like OBP/OPS, and other saber driven models...is a way of analyzing player value, but not the only way. There is no player more polarizing in these situations than Dunn, because he plays heavily to those numbers, while lacking in many other areas.

 

Like I said...if he comes at a decent enough price, bring him along. But if we are talking some sort of multiyear, 13-15mil per year deal...pass. I've given my reasons why, people disagree. That's fine. But these numbers are NOT the only factor in determining his value to this team...far from it.

[dew1679666265]

lots to like here

 

Ability to Hit in the Clutch? Neither, slight edge Soriano. (Soriano hits .276 with a .380 OBP with RISP, Dunn hits .240 with a .416 OBP...not much difference here, Soriano nearly matches Dunn's supposed "advantage" of OBP.)

 

So once again, outside of Dunn being able to take a walk...where is this HUGE difference you describe?

 

there will be blood

 

Not trying to be Mr. Smart Guy, but why the comparison of Dunn to either

 

A) guys we already have(the Soriano comparison, they aren't even remotely similar)

or

B) guys were never going to get( Morneau)

 

I'm more interested in how he compares to Bradley, which has at least been addressed some, Abreu, Burrell or any other guy that there's at least a minute possibility of playing RF for the Cubs next year.

 

Dunn: 129, 136, 114 OPS+ the past three seasons. He walks alot but strikes out a lot (largely due to his great patience causing him to get behind in counts quickly) and has hit 40 HRs in each of the past four seasons and 46 in 2004. His defense is despicably bad, so much so that it takes some of his offensive value away.

 

Bradley: 163, 153, 114 OPS+ in the past three seasons. Never had a season near 100 walks (Dunn almost never walks less than 100 times) and actually walks very rarely (80, 31, 51 the last three years). He also strikes out a whole lot less than Dunn, though. His highest number of HRs in a year was 22 last year and never reached 20 before. Slugging is similar to Dunn, though. His defense is average to above average.

 

The key for me between them is that Bradley is pretty much a guarantee to miss close to half the season and could be out indefinitely at any moment. He hasn't played 100 games in a season in the field since 2004 (with seasons of 20, 62, 94 and 73). Dunn, on the other hand, hasn't played less than 150 games in a season since 2003.

 

The question is, do you take the gamble that Bradley would be healthy for the playoffs (and assume we've got the offense to reach the playoffs in good shape without him) or do you go for the guy you know will be healthy, but will likely not be as valuable overall.

[scarey]

lots to like here

 

Ability to Hit in the Clutch? Neither, slight edge Soriano. (Soriano hits .276 with a .380 OBP with RISP, Dunn hits .240 with a .416 OBP...not much difference here, Soriano nearly matches Dunn's supposed "advantage" of OBP.)

 

So once again, outside of Dunn being able to take a walk...where is this HUGE difference you describe?

 

there will be blood

 

Not trying to be Mr. Smart Guy, but why the comparison of Dunn to either

 

A) guys we already have(the Soriano comparison, they aren't even remotely similar)

or

B) guys were never going to get( Morneau)

 

I'm more interested in how he compares to Bradley, which has at least been addressed some, Abreu, Burrell or any other guy that there's at least a minute possibility of playing RF for the Cubs next year.

 

 

Soriano is being compared here because most people here have had extensive first hand knowledge on Soriano unlike Dunn.

 

I compared Morneau to Dunn because Morneau is a good example of why having a good average with RISP can help a team more then a guy like Dunn who doesn't swing to contact.

 

And, up to that point in the thread when I made the Morneau comparison, the conversation was going in circles when talking about Bradley v. Dunn.

 

Pro Bradley: Bradley is the all around better player and hitter.

 

Pro Dunn: Yeah, but he WILL be injured next year.

 

Just made no sense to go on with it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@Dew:

 

You would be right in your specific scenario, but that scenario isn't anywhere close to the actual stat comparisons between Morneau and Dunn. Morneau gets an RBI for every 2.5 plate appearances when he has RISP. Dunn gets an RBI in every 3.4 plate appearances in teh same situation. Morneau is way more productive then Dunn with RISP.

 

For a more local comparison of that stat, our two consistent clutch run producers are at the 2.5 range along with Morneau. All of these guys know how to look at the situation and adjust to try to get the best possible outcome, which is score a run.

[dew1679666265]

 

Batting average has its merits, but not on its own. Take this for example:

 

Of course, and I understand that. BA is NOT a king stat. No stat is.

 

Using numbers like OBP/OPS, and other saber driven models...is a way of analyzing player value, but not the only way. There is no player more polarizing in these situations than Dunn, because he plays heavily to those numbers, while lacking in many other areas.

 

Like I said...if he comes at a decent enough price, bring him along. But if we are talking some sort of multiyear, 13-15mil per year deal...pass. I've given my reasons why, people disagree. That's fine. But these numbers are NOT the only factor in determining his value to this team...far from it.

 

OPS and OBP are not "saber driven models" though. In basically every situation, OPS overrides BA because OPS takes into consideration what BA tells you and then tells you even more on top of that. BA tells you simply how often a guy gets a hit - not what type or anything else. OPS, on the other hand, tells you what kind of hit the player has executed and how often he gets on base. So if you're going to point out one stat, OPS is probably your best bet without getting heavily into saber stuff (sorry for the lack of technical terminology).

 

Looking at Dunn's BA in the situations you describe is less valuable than looking at his OPS - and his OPS is quite good in those situations.

[dew1679666265]

@Dew:

 

You would be right in your specific scenario, but that scenario isn't anywhere close to the actual stat comparisons between Morneau and Dunn. Morneau gets an RBI for every 2.5 plate appearances when he has RISP. Dunn gets an RBI in every 3.4 plate appearances in teh same situation. Morneau is way more productive then Dunn with RISP.

 

For a more local comparison of that stat, our two consistent clutch run producers are at the 2.5 range along with Morneau. All of these guys know how to look at the situation and adjust to try to get the best possible outcome, which is score a run.

 

I wasn't necessarily arguing the merits of Dunn v Morneau there. Just the merits of looking at BA solely in determining a player's worth.

 

Any time a player gets on base, it's productive. Is driving the man in more productive? Sure, but you can't just disregard the times he gets on base and gives the team (in our case Aramis Ramirez, one of the best hitters in the game today) a chance to drive in multiple runners.

[The Other 15]

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

 

 

I'm sorry, I have an extremely difficult time describing someone as a very good hitter when their career batting average is .247, they average 160+ strikeouts a year, and his career RISP is .241 (.208 with RISP and 2 outs.) Sometimes, the situation demands a player step up to the plate and drive in a run, and he can't deliver that. His career numbers prove it. These SHOULD matter.

 

Listen, OBP and SLG are great numbers to have...I know. But Dunn is basically another Soriano, only with the ability to take a walk and not steal a base. Most people here hate Soriano, yet praise Dunn profusely.

 

He's a valuable offensive piece overall that just doesn't make sense for this team based on our needs.

 

They praise Dunn and don't like Soriano because Dunn is a much better hitter, and other than the fact that they have a lot of power and strikeout they have basically nothing in common.

Holy let's pile on an popular idea Batman! Dunn is a better hitter? He's a better selective swinger, but when he swings, other than a few more HR's how is he a better hitter than Sori?

 

I completely understand that BA means nothing. Oh, wait, it only matters when its used in conjunction with BB's and HBP? That's right, i forgot about that. Sori is a career .282 hitter Dunn is .247. Sori averages 344 TB's in 162 games (that popular OPS thing we often refer to where Dunn is so supperior) to Dunns 287 162 game average. They both average .518 162 game SLG. Yeah, I can see where Dunn is such superior hitter.

 

So how is Dunn a better hitter than Sori? Oh, OPS +, that's right that whopping 130 for Dunn to Soris 116. That's concludes it, Dunn is so much better. Yeah, Dunn gets about 70 more BB's per season, but Sori gets about 50 more hits per season. I'm sure some BP writers conclusions are that BB's are better than hits (and I'm sure that he'll have some spreadsheet to prove it) but in baseball hits still matter.

 

There is no place I would prefer Dunn to Soriano.

[AZCub]

 

Batting average has its merits, but not on its own. Take this for example:

 

Of course, and I understand that. BA is NOT a king stat. No stat is.

 

Using numbers like OBP/OPS, and other saber driven models...is a way of analyzing player value, but not the only way. There is no player more polarizing in these situations than Dunn, because he plays heavily to those numbers, while lacking in many other areas.

 

Like I said...if he comes at a decent enough price, bring him along. But if we are talking some sort of multiyear, 13-15mil per year deal...pass. I've given my reasons why, people disagree. That's fine. But these numbers are NOT the only factor in determining his value to this team...far from it.

 

OPS and OBP are not "saber driven models" though. In basically every situation, OPS overrides BA because OPS takes into consideration what BA tells you and then tells you even more on top of that. BA tells you simply how often a guy gets a hit - not what type or anything else. OPS, on the other hand, tells you what kind of hit the player has executed and how often he gets on base. So if you're going to point out one stat, OPS is probably your best bet without getting heavily into saber stuff (sorry for the lack of technical terminology).

 

Looking at Dunn's BA in the situations you describe is less valuable than looking at his OPS - and his OPS is quite good in those situations.

 

I appreciate what you are trying to say...you don't need to explain it to me. I completely understand what that stat is telling me.

 

We just disagree on the value of BA w/RISP...that's all. I'm not some sort of anti-OPS, all original baseball stats guy. I just prefer not to rely solely on these statistics. I've seen quite a bit of Dunn actually...probably more than most people here. I got to watch him every night here in AZ, as I would watch D-Backs games while listening to Cubs games. And obviously, I've seen quite a bit of him while in a Reds uniform. He drives me ape balls crazy.

 

Sometimes, I just want a guy to walk up to the plate looking to drive in a run because a situation dictates that need. And sometimes, you need to adjust your hitting approach to do so. Dunn simply refuses to do that, and it bothers me.

 

Now, one positive you could take from this approach is putting him in front of a guy who DOES look to drive in runs when needed, like A-Ram (2007-08 playoffs aside, of course. :banghead: ) In that case, Dunn's patience would be beneficiary to us, and I wouldn't mind it whatsoever.

 

So if the price is right...OK. Sure. The outfield defense would look damned awful, but the lineup would be nice.

[scarey]

@Dew:

 

You would be right in your specific scenario, but that scenario isn't anywhere close to the actual stat comparisons between Morneau and Dunn. Morneau gets an RBI for every 2.5 plate appearances when he has RISP. Dunn gets an RBI in every 3.4 plate appearances in teh same situation. Morneau is way more productive then Dunn with RISP.

 

For a more local comparison of that stat, our two consistent clutch run producers are at the 2.5 range along with Morneau. All of these guys know how to look at the situation and adjust to try to get the best possible outcome, which is score a run.

 

I wasn't necessarily arguing the merits of Dunn v Morneau there. Just the merits of looking at BA solely in determining a player's worth.

 

Any time a player gets on base, it's productive. Is driving the man in more productive? Sure, but you can't just disregard the times he gets on base and gives the team (in our case Aramis Ramirez, one of the best hitters in the game today) a chance to drive in multiple runners.

 

Yes, but in that same situation, a guy like Bradley is better then Dunn at a 3.2 PAw.RISP/RBI. On top of that, Bradley provides better defense and speed on the bases... and only falters by .010 points lifetime in OBP.

 

And if you wanna talk about how Bradley will be injured, our little Mike Fontenot in his short career has 2.9 PAw.RISP/RBI(.369 OBP). And Reed Johnson is at 2.8(.344 OBP).

 

Now, it's hard to argue that I would want Fontenot instead of Adam Dunn in my lineup, I will say this though. I do in fact prefer Bradley in the lineup and I personally don't mind taking the gamble on Bradley with the fact that Fontenot and Johnson would be the backup options.

Edited December 16, 2008 by scarey

[dew1679666265]

 

Batting average has its merits, but not on its own. Take this for example:

 

Of course, and I understand that. BA is NOT a king stat. No stat is.

 

Using numbers like OBP/OPS, and other saber driven models...is a way of analyzing player value, but not the only way. There is no player more polarizing in these situations than Dunn, because he plays heavily to those numbers, while lacking in many other areas.

 

Like I said...if he comes at a decent enough price, bring him along. But if we are talking some sort of multiyear, 13-15mil per year deal...pass. I've given my reasons why, people disagree. That's fine. But these numbers are NOT the only factor in determining his value to this team...far from it.

 

OPS and OBP are not "saber driven models" though. In basically every situation, OPS overrides BA because OPS takes into consideration what BA tells you and then tells you even more on top of that. BA tells you simply how often a guy gets a hit - not what type or anything else. OPS, on the other hand, tells you what kind of hit the player has executed and how often he gets on base. So if you're going to point out one stat, OPS is probably your best bet without getting heavily into saber stuff (sorry for the lack of technical terminology).

 

Looking at Dunn's BA in the situations you describe is less valuable than looking at his OPS - and his OPS is quite good in those situations.

 

I appreciate what you are trying to say...you don't need to explain it to me. I completely understand what that stat is telling me.

 

We just disagree on the value of BA w/RISP...that's all. I'm not some sort of anti-OPS, all original baseball stats guy. I just prefer not to rely solely on these statistics. I've seen quite a bit of Dunn actually...probably more than most people here. I got to watch him every night here in AZ, as I would watch D-Backs games while listening to Cubs games. And obviously, I've seen quite a bit of him while in a Reds uniform. He drives me ape balls crazy.

 

Sometimes, I just want a guy to walk up to the plate looking to drive in a run because a situation dictates that need. And sometimes, you need to adjust your hitting approach to do so. Dunn simply refuses to do that, and it bothers me.

 

Now, one positive you could take from this approach is putting him in front of a guy who DOES look to drive in runs when needed, like A-Ram (2007-08 playoffs aside, of course. :banghead: ) In that case, Dunn's patience would be beneficiary to us, and I wouldn't mind it whatsoever.

 

So if the price is right...OK. Sure. The outfield defense would look damned awful, but the lineup would be nice.

 

I agree with a lot of this. Dunn would be very good for our lineup because he would be surrounded by other good to great hitters. Thus, when he took a walk with a man on third, whoever is hitting behind him (DLee, ARam, Soto) has a very good chance of driving in at least one, if not two.

 

I do worry about the defense, though. He's disgustingly bad out there.

[dew1679666265]

@Dew:

 

You would be right in your specific scenario, but that scenario isn't anywhere close to the actual stat comparisons between Morneau and Dunn. Morneau gets an RBI for every 2.5 plate appearances when he has RISP. Dunn gets an RBI in every 3.4 plate appearances in teh same situation. Morneau is way more productive then Dunn with RISP.

 

For a more local comparison of that stat, our two consistent clutch run producers are at the 2.5 range along with Morneau. All of these guys know how to look at the situation and adjust to try to get the best possible outcome, which is score a run.

 

I wasn't necessarily arguing the merits of Dunn v Morneau there. Just the merits of looking at BA solely in determining a player's worth.

 

Any time a player gets on base, it's productive. Is driving the man in more productive? Sure, but you can't just disregard the times he gets on base and gives the team (in our case Aramis Ramirez, one of the best hitters in the game today) a chance to drive in multiple runners.

 

Yes, but in that same situation, a guy like Bradley is better then Dunn at a 3.2 PAw.RISP/RBI. On top of that, Bradley provides better defense and speed on the bases... and only falters by .010 points lifetime in OBP.

 

And if you wanna talk about how Bradley will be injured, our little Mike Fontenot in his short career has 2.9 PAw.RISP/RBI(.369 OBP). And Reed Johnson is at 2.8(.344 OBP).

 

Now, it's hard to argue that I would want Fontenot instead of Adam Dunn in my lineup, I will say this though. I do in fact prefer Bradley in the lineup and I personally don't mind taking the gamble on Bradley with the fact that Fontenot and Johnson would be the backup options.

 

I love Fontenot as a backup/platoon guy at second, but with how much Bradley is likely to miss, I worry that his production might drop off too much - especially if one of Bradley's many DL stints happened in the playoffs.

 

And Bradley has more speed on the basepaths, but he's more likely to get hurt should he run. I just wonder if it's smart to sink 10+ mil and multiple years into a guy who might play 275-300 games tops during a three-year deal (that's out of 486 games).

[samhainn77]

Sabermetrics at it's worst. :banghead:

 

Just so you know, Dunn's career average with RISP is actually .225, not .241.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=00

 

And... hi! I know who you are :D

 

 

Thanks, that's slightly more useful than number of RBIs on Wednesdays. Can you grab that stat for me? It might be useful since the we need to know who steps up their game on Wednesdays and who suffers from the dreaded Hump-day jitters.

[AZCub]

The Bradley/Dunn argument all comes down to price in terms of how the Cubs handle it. In the end, I see Bradley as a Cub, and Dunn miserable as a National.

[samhainn77]

The Bradley/Dunn argument all comes down to price in terms of how the Cubs handle it. In the end, I see Bradley as a Cub, and Dunn miserable as a National.

 

 

I think price is the point of the Dunn argument. His production is undervalued (likely costs less) because a lot of GMs still put the bulk of their stock in BA, avg w/ RISP, and RBI. The first stat doesn't tell much of the story, the next is nearly totally dependant on the first stat and not on the magical skill of "clutch", and the 3rd stat very much depends on how good the players in front of him are.

 

Just out of curiosity for AZCub, scarey, and whoever else wants to chime in...how important, in your opinion, are Wins for a starting pitcher?

[17 Seconds]

theriot must be an elite offensive player since home runs aren't production

 

scarey is cracking me up right now. home runs aren't production, but rbis are. epic

[Butterscup1679666578]

in all honesty, this is one of the most painfully mind-numbing threads ever at NSBB.

[Post Count Padder]

in all honesty, this is one of the most painfully mind-numbing threads ever at NSBB.

I wouldn't go that far.

[scarey]

Sabermetrics at it's worst. :banghead:

 

Just so you know, Dunn's career average with RISP is actually .225, not .241.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=00

 

And... hi! I know who you are :D

 

 

Thanks, that's slightly more useful than number of RBIs on Wednesdays. Can you grab that stat for me? It might be useful since the we need to know who steps up their game on Wednesdays and who suffers from the dreaded Hump-day jitters.

 

Devaluing the ability to drive runs in when the best possibility is presented is silly. I won't say more then that.

 

theriot must be an elite offensive player since home runs aren't production

 

No, Theriot does not drive in runs the way an elite offensive player like Aramis Ramirez or Derrek Lee does. Again, you're trying to base your argument on trivializing my argument. That to me tells me you got nothin. This seems to be sort of common around here. Stick to the topic of discussion rather then trying to slander me please.

 

Just out of curiosity for AZCub, scarey, and whoever else wants to chime in...how important, in your opinion, are Wins for a starting pitcher?

 

Wins are mostly dependent on what your team can do for you offensively with a small emphasis on how well a pitcher can pitch and how well his defense fields for the pitcher. I would never judge a pitcher solely on wins, however there is a correlation between how good a pitcher is and how many wins he accumulates over his career.

 

Anyway, I know you weren't really curious what I thought about wins. You were just hoping I would say they're important or imply that I think they're important so you can trivialize me and my argument. Nice try though.

 

There is a huge difference between wins for a starting pitcher and being able to drive in runners in scoring position. If you guys can't understand that... then I don't know what to say.

 

I guess all you can ask for is we somehow sign Dunn. Then you can hope for a walk when DLee is standing on third with two outs... cause Dunn has proven over the time of his career that he is 1.5 times more likely to strike out in that situation compared to actually getting a hit and scoring the run.

 

Unless you think he'll magically change and be more likely to drive in the run then strike out... I guess that can always happen.

 

I can't wait to see the giant BB signs in the outfield when Dunn walks to the plate with the winning run at third with 2 outs.

[scarey]

theriot must be an elite offensive player since home runs aren't production

 

scarey is cracking me up right now. home runs aren't production, but rbis are. epic

 

 

While we're on the subject, could you please tell me who you think was a better player in 2008? Adam Dunn or Justin Morneau?

 

I'm not just talking about how important they were for their respective teams. I want to know in a vacuum, who played better last year, Dunn or Morneau?

 

Dunn had 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 79 R and posted a .236/.386/.513 line

Morneau had 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 97 R, and posted a .300/.374/.499 line

 

Please, just tell me who was better and what your justification was? I would love to hear what any of you guys think here and really want to understand your side of it. I don't care that Morneau isn't in the Cubs plans, I simply want to know which you think was better offensively last year.

[inari]

Wait, Derrek Lee is an elite offensive player? The difference between Adam Dunn and Derrek Lee is pretty huge, and not in a way that is good for D-Lee.

[imb]

despite being just a first baseman, unless morneau is a butcher in the field, i'll have to go with him by a slim margin

[samhainn77]

Sabermetrics at it's worst. :banghead:

 

Just so you know, Dunn's career average with RISP is actually .225, not .241.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=00

 

And... hi! I know who you are :D

 

 

Thanks, that's slightly more useful than number of RBIs on Wednesdays. Can you grab that stat for me? It might be useful since the we need to know who steps up their game on Wednesdays and who suffers from the dreaded Hump-day jitters.

 

Devaluing the ability to drive runs in when the best possibility is presented is silly. I won't say more then that.

 

theriot must be an elite offensive player since home runs aren't production

 

No, Theriot does not drive in runs the way an elite offensive player like Aramis Ramirez or Derrek Lee does. Again, you're trying to base your argument on trivializing my argument. That to me tells me you got nothin. This seems to be sort of common around here. Stick to the topic of discussion rather then trying to slander me please.

 

Just out of curiosity for AZCub, scarey, and whoever else wants to chime in...how important, in your opinion, are Wins for a starting pitcher?

 

Wins are mostly dependent on what your team can do for you offensively with a small emphasis on how well a pitcher can pitch and how well his defense fields for the pitcher. I would never judge a pitcher solely on wins, however there is a correlation between how good a pitcher is and how many wins he accumulates over his career.

 

Anyway, I know you weren't really curious what I thought about wins. You were just hoping I would say they're important or imply that I think they're important so you can trivialize me and my argument. Nice try though.

 

There is a huge difference between wins for a starting pitcher and being able to drive in runners in scoring position. If you guys can't understand that... then I don't know what to say.

 

I guess all you can ask for is we somehow sign Dunn. Then you can hope for a walk when DLee is standing on third with two outs... cause Dunn has proven over the time of his career that he is 1.5 times more likely to strike out in that situation compared to actually getting a hit and scoring the run.

 

Unless you think he'll magically change and be more likely to drive in the run then strike out... I guess that can always happen.

 

I can't wait to see the giant BB signs in the outfield when Dunn walks to the plate with the winning run at third with 2 outs.

 

No, I was actually curious. I like to understand why people think the way they think. The fact that you can understand that Wins are team stats but think RBIs measure individual contribution certainly baffles me. You've made your points - Avg, RsBI, and not striking out are the most important...also some people try harder or have the innate skill (or whatever your argument is for RISP)to get hits when a runner is at 2nd or 3rd. I really don't think your argument needs to be trivialized.

 

You have your opinions, I have mine...When in Rome.

[Jehrico]

I'm sorry, but I just thought this thread needed this famous movie quote...

 

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.