Dunn is awesome...No he's not...Yes he is!!!

[CubinNY]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Not making an out is getting the job done.

 

Welcome to the forum.

[scarey]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Not making an out is getting the job done.

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

While I thank you for the welcome (I have been lurking for years btw), I have to respectfully disagree. Also, I wish you would go into more details then just the one line answer, especially given the justifications for why it's not getting the job done I have given.

[shnsajax]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Not making an out is getting the job done.

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

If all things are equal I would much rather have the guy who puts the ball in play.

[CubinNY]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Not making an out is getting the job done.

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

If all things are equal I would much rather have the guy who puts the ball in play.

All things are not equal, ever.

 

There is no need to go into detail, not making an out is the #1 goal of a batter.

[dew1679666265]

DUNN- younger, durable ,can move to first after Lee's contract expires.

 

Never use Dunn's name with the term "can move" in the same sentence.

 

Well, Bradley can move at least.

 

Problem is, every time he moves he hurts himself.

[dew1679666265]

Dunn would probably be the worst defensive right fielder in the history of baseball.

 

Do we know that Bradley will be that much better?

 

He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004 and played a whole 20 last year. I realize most of it is because he'll hurt himself if he stands in the outfield, but is a player who will be injured if he plays the outfield any better than a poor defender?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Dunn would probably be the worst defensive right fielder in the history of baseball.

 

Do we know that Bradley will be that much better?

 

He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004 and played a whole 20 last year. I realize most of it is because he'll hurt himself if he stands in the outfield, but is a player who will be injured if he plays the outfield any better than a poor defender?

 

Yes. Everything I've seen points to Bradley being at least capable, if not above average defensively. With Dunn, we're talking about giving away a substantial portion of the offense he provides with his defense, especially in RF.

[shnsajax]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Not making an out is getting the job done.

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

If all things are equal I would much rather have the guy who puts the ball in play.

All things are not equal, ever.

 

There is no need to go into detail, not making an out is the #1 goal of a batter.

 

Ok, then Bradley's OBP beating Dunn's by .050 points works for me too.

[dew1679666265]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Not making an out is getting the job done.

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

While I thank you for the welcome (I have been lurking for years btw), I have to respectfully disagree. Also, I wish you would go into more details then just the one line answer, especially given the justifications for why it's not getting the job done I have given.

 

The thinking behind "Not making an out is getting the job done" is that the more guys you get on base the more likely you are to not only score, but also have a big inning - i.e. "put up a crooked number." Each team has a limited number of outs with which to score more runs than the other team, so a player who doesn't use up a many of those outs is valuable.

 

Also, most of a pitcher's desire to have Dunn on base is not because he's slow - it's because any pitch at all can end up in the seats. He doesn't hit for a very good average, but Dunn can slug with the best of hitters.

[dew1679666265]

Dunn would probably be the worst defensive right fielder in the history of baseball.

 

Do we know that Bradley will be that much better?

 

He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004 and played a whole 20 last year. I realize most of it is because he'll hurt himself if he stands in the outfield, but is a player who will be injured if he plays the outfield any better than a poor defender?

 

Yes. Everything I've seen points to Bradley being at least capable, if not above average defensively. With Dunn, we're talking about giving away a substantial portion of the offense he provides with his defense, especially in RF.

 

But that was two years ago, at best, for Bradley. The sample size defensively for him is very small unless you go back to 2006. Defensive metrics are highly questionable at best with a large sample size. If you have to go back to when Bradley was 27 to have any sort of real sample size, are the metrics reliable enough to tell you how he'll be today when he's 31 and has a pitiful health record?

[scarey]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Not making an out is getting the job done.

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

While I thank you for the welcome (I have been lurking for years btw), I have to respectfully disagree. Also, I wish you would go into more details then just the one line answer, especially given the justifications for why it's not getting the job done I have given.

 

The thinking behind "Not making an out is getting the job done" is that the more guys you get on base the more likely you are to not only score, but also have a big inning - i.e. "put up a crooked number." Each team has a limited number of outs with which to score more runs than the other team, so a player who doesn't use up a many of those outs is valuable.

 

Also, most of a pitcher's desire to have Dunn on base is not because he's slow - it's because any pitch at all can end up in the seats. He doesn't hit for a very good average, but Dunn can slug with the best of hitters.

 

 

Of coarse Dunn can slug well, but pitchers make the decision to try for a two out opportunity rather then give him that opportunity (which with Dunn, a two out opportunity is relatively higher then many other players in the league). Now, assuming he bats between ARam and Lee and there's a runner on third, there's going to be a good opportunity after Dunn walks because ARam has a substantially better average with RISP. However, that sets up a two out opportunity for the pitcher and the only way Dunn on first base helps directly in his AB is if ARam hits a long ball or in a very very long shot a ball is hit in a place where Dunn is able to score from first... which both are not very likely in this situation unlikely.

 

The thing is, you can't rely on your whole lineup to walk to set up opportunities because the law of averages is working against you, even with a team that was so good at getting on base as the Cubs. I am a big believer in OBP as a general concept, but in this specific situation when you have a player of the caliber and renown of Dunn, you need him to drive in your runs instead of extending your possibility for creating an out.

[scarey]

BTW, I forgot to explain this concept.

 

When you have a man on third, I think you have a limited amount of opportunities to score him. So the idea that "not making an out" is actually backwards in this situation because it's really just a failed opportunity to score the runner. Given that on a league average basis, about 2/3 of plate appearances result in outs, I just believe that scoring a runner on third base in any opportunity you're given is paramount. Anything less is pretty much failure... unless a Neifi type player walks to set up a Aramis type player at the plate.

[BigbadB]

Who was it who said Milton Bradley stole 5 bases in 2008 so he must be feeling well? What the hell does that have to do with anything

 

I'm the one who said it. The reason I pointed it out was because at the end of the 2007 season, Bradley had a significant knee injury. That he stole some bases sorta says that he feels the knee is strong enough to challenge a pitcher. If the knee is strong enough to do that, then I would think he would be capable of playing the field again. Texas limited his playing time in the OF, mainly because they had healthy defenders that they could play at every position and they could easily hide their knee concerns at DH.

 

Mark DeRosa's presence on this ballclub makes me think that signing Bradley isn't as crazy as you are making it out to be. But, that's also assuming the Cubs aren't giving him 4/40, which I find extremely unlikely. You can post the players demands as their true value all you want, but you still have to find a GM that will give that to him. Considering he's never been paid higher than 6m a single year of his career and his constant injury history, and couple that with an ever shrinking economy, I'll go ahead and take you up on that wager that he won't get a 4/40 contract.

 

There really isn't a single guy who fits the Cubs needs this offseason. Each has his own baggage. And in my own mind, if the Cubs were going to throw 4/40 at someone, I'd much rather see them throw it at Furcal. If Furcal isn't going to be an option, then I don't mind seeing them bring in Bradley as potential help from the left side of the plate.

 

My offseason hopes were to trade for Peavy and Hermida, and then sign Furcal. Probably not all that realistic, but please note that Bradley and his 5 stolen bases are not on that list, Mr. "Let's Take What Someone Says Completely Out Of Context".

[Moises a loo]

 

Of coarse Dunn can slug well, but pitchers make the decision to try for a two out opportunity rather then give him that opportunity (which with Dunn, a two out opportunity is relatively higher then many other players in the league). Now, assuming he bats between ARam and Lee and there's a runner on third, there's going to be a good opportunity after Dunn walks because ARam has a substantially better average with RISP. However, that sets up a two out opportunity for the pitcher and the only way Dunn on first base helps directly in his AB is if ARam hits a long ball or in a very very long shot a ball is hit in a place where Dunn is able to score from first... which both are not very likely in this situation unlikely.

 

The thing is, you can't rely on your whole lineup to walk to set up opportunities because the law of averages is working against you, even with a team that was so good at getting on base as the Cubs. I am a big believer in OBP as a general concept, but in this specific situation when you have a player of the caliber and renown of Dunn, you need him to drive in your runs instead of extending your possibility for creating an out.

 

The reason the offense was so good last year was that the whole lineup top to bottom showed a patience that Cubs fans have never ever seen unless they watched the Red Sox or Yankees. There was no place for a pitcher to hide because every hitter did his part to swing at good pitches and let pitcher's pitches go by. This is what Dunn does as well so I don't think there's any question he'd fit in perfectly with the Cubs' lineup. The only real questions are his price tag and defense, and just because someone says he'd be the worst right fielder in the history of the game doesn't make it so. Bradley's injuries and well-documented attitude problems make him a disaster waiting to happen. Maybe he'd work out, maybe not. With Dunn, at the very least, his offensive contribution would be reliable and outstanding. Plus he's always RAKED at Wrigley, which is a nice bonus. If the Cubs can afford him, put me in the Dunn over Bradley, Peavy, and everyone else available column.

[dew1679666265]

Of coarse Dunn can slug well, but pitchers make the decision to try for a two out opportunity rather then give him that opportunity (which with Dunn, a two out opportunity is relatively higher then many other players in the league). Now, assuming he bats between ARam and Lee and there's a runner on third, there's going to be a good opportunity after Dunn walks because ARam has a substantially better average with RISP. However, that sets up a two out opportunity for the pitcher and the only way Dunn on first base helps directly in his AB is if ARam hits a long ball or in a very very long shot a ball is hit in a place where Dunn is able to score from first... which both are not very likely in this situation unlikely.

 

The problem is, there simply aren't very many fast players who also can slug the way Dunn can. If a pitcher wants to walk Dunn in front of Aramis and set him up to drive in two players as opposed to one, he can be my guest.

 

Dunn isn't nearly as good a hitter as Aramis, so the more often he's walked in front of Aramis, the better.

 

Dunn, though, is not the type of player who is going to get a bunch of base hits in any situation. He's going to either walk or slug the ball (usually a home run).

 

The thing is, you can't rely on your whole lineup to walk to set up opportunities because the law of averages is working against you, even with a team that was so good at getting on base as the Cubs. I am a big believer in OBP as a general concept, but in this specific situation when you have a player of the caliber and renown of Dunn, you need him to drive in your runs instead of extending your possibility for creating an out.

 

I'd love to have players who hit great with RISP every season. Problem is, we have a certain, small amount of options with which to improve our team. Of those options, Adam Dunn is the best. Dunn will get on base 38% of the time and will slug over .500. In the 25% of ABs that you're focusing on, he may not give the ideal result, but he'll give a positive result.

 

He's certainly better than paying Bradley $10 million to sit on the DL for a little less than half the season (at best).

Edited December 14, 2008 by dew

[dew1679666265]

BTW, I forgot to explain this concept.

 

When you have a man on third, I think you have a limited amount of opportunities to score him. So the idea that "not making an out" is actually backwards in this situation because it's really just a failed opportunity to score the runner. Given that on a league average basis, about 2/3 of plate appearances result in outs, I just believe that scoring a runner on third base in any opportunity you're given is paramount. Anything less is pretty much failure... unless a Neifi type player walks to set up a Aramis type player at the plate.

 

You're thinking completely in terms of scoring one run. If Dunn gets on base, then Aramis (a great hitter) will have the ability to drive in more than one run. With a limited amount of opportunities in a game, it's important to get as much out of each opportunity as possible.

 

You also can't build your team around 25% of their ABs (at most). If you have a great offense, that offense is likely to do well with RISP. Dunn helps us to have a great offense.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Dunn would probably be the worst defensive right fielder in the history of baseball.

 

Do we know that Bradley will be that much better?

 

He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004 and played a whole 20 last year. I realize most of it is because he'll hurt himself if he stands in the outfield, but is a player who will be injured if he plays the outfield any better than a poor defender?

 

Yes. Everything I've seen points to Bradley being at least capable, if not above average defensively. With Dunn, we're talking about giving away a substantial portion of the offense he provides with his defense, especially in RF.

 

But that was two years ago, at best, for Bradley. The sample size defensively for him is very small unless you go back to 2006. Defensive metrics are highly questionable at best with a large sample size. If you have to go back to when Bradley was 27 to have any sort of real sample size, are the metrics reliable enough to tell you how he'll be today when he's 31 and has a pitiful health record?

 

For me I need more than "he's had injuries" to deduce that he's become a worse outfielder. And besides, even if he's been sapped of range by his injuries, he's still highly likely to be orders of magnitude better than Dunn in the OF.

[UMFan83]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

Welcome to the forum. Unfortunately I have to disagree as to why Dunn's OBP is so high in that situation. You sound like Dusty Baker complaining about walks "clogging the bases" when you make that point. People walk Dunn in those situations because he is likely to hit the ball 450 feet if you give him the wrong pitch. That's part of it, and the other part of it is that Dunn is really good at taking walks. It has very little to do with him being "slow" and clogging the bases.

[dew1679666265]

Dunn would probably be the worst defensive right fielder in the history of baseball.

 

Do we know that Bradley will be that much better?

 

He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004 and played a whole 20 last year. I realize most of it is because he'll hurt himself if he stands in the outfield, but is a player who will be injured if he plays the outfield any better than a poor defender?

 

Yes. Everything I've seen points to Bradley being at least capable, if not above average defensively. With Dunn, we're talking about giving away a substantial portion of the offense he provides with his defense, especially in RF.

 

But that was two years ago, at best, for Bradley. The sample size defensively for him is very small unless you go back to 2006. Defensive metrics are highly questionable at best with a large sample size. If you have to go back to when Bradley was 27 to have any sort of real sample size, are the metrics reliable enough to tell you how he'll be today when he's 31 and has a pitiful health record?

 

For me I need more than "he's had injuries" to deduce that he's become a worse outfielder. And besides, even if he's been sapped of range by his injuries, he's still highly likely to be orders of magnitude better than Dunn in the OF.

 

My point is that defensive metrics are, at best, less than reliable. In the last two years, we don't have 80 games with which to judge Bradley's defensive ability. Given his lengthy injury history and the fact that he's four years older than the last time he played 100 games in the outfield, there's a good chance he's regressed a bit defensively.

 

He'll still be better than Dunn in the outfield, I guess. But will he be able to play it without getting hurt? He hasn't in a long time.

[UMFan83]

BTW, I forgot to explain this concept.

 

When you have a man on third, I think you have a limited amount of opportunities to score him. So the idea that "not making an out" is actually backwards in this situation because it's really just a failed opportunity to score the runner. Given that on a league average basis, about 2/3 of plate appearances result in outs, I just believe that scoring a runner on third base in any opportunity you're given is paramount. Anything less is pretty much failure... unless a Neifi type player walks to set up a Aramis type player at the plate.

 

How is a walk a "failed opportunity"? If you have a runner on third and 0 outs, how does a walk take away an opportunity? It's still a runner on third, along with a runner on first with 0 outs still. You still hve the same opportunity as you had before, but you do introduce the small possibility of a GIDP, while you also introduce the possibility of another runner getting into RISP with a base hit by the next batter.

 

More people on base = more possible runs scored in the inning.

[UK1679666180]

To all of you Adam Dunn fans, this is why I don't think Dunn is a worthwhile option (not including defensive reasons).

Career batting average with runners in scoring position: .225

 

Now, I know you're going to say, "but, his OBP in that situation is .416".

 

To that, I just want to argue that getting on base in a RISP situation is not always getting the job done. For one thing, Dunn is supposed to be the type of player that drives those runners in. We could find plenty of other guys that occupy first base after we get a runner on 3rd, but I want a person that can drive the runner in. Maybe I'm being picky, but that's just what I want.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354. While that's better then average, I wouldn't say it's impressive. This doesn't even include all the "unintentional" IBB. People WANT him on base in a RISP situation (unless of coarse it moves another person into scoring position). The guy is a walking double play on first base.

 

You're basing something on the batting avg. of a situation that only occurs just over 1 out of every 4 plate appearences as to why you don't want Dunn. Lee has a career avg. of .283 w/RISP and last year he has 180 PAs with RISP, if you go by RBI per PA over their careers Lee would've finished with 58 RBIs and Dunn would've had 54. 5 run difference out of 855 runs for the total runs scored of the year is about .04% which nothing.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is a slow and less then adequate base runner. Do you think there's a reason he has a high OBP with runners in scoring position? I'll give you a clue, if you take away the IBB when he's in that situation his OBP drops from .416 to .354.

 

This makes no sense whatsoever, you think he's terrible at hitting with RISP, yet teams are unwilling to pitch to him b/c he's a bad baserunner and a baserunner that has runners in front of him which limits his potential of making a bad baserunning error. The odds of him making a base running error or being forced at 2nd that an avg. runner would've made are even more mimimal than the difference of having Lee up w/RISP and Dunn.

 

Fwiw, I took away IBB from his OBP w/RISP and I came up with .378 for his career.

 

(218+231+20)/(969+231+20+21)

(H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)

 

 

There are valid arguments towards not wanting him, the cubs inability to try and put Soriano in RF to allow dunn to play LF, Dunn's defense in LF is also a valid reason.

 

But, avg. in RISP isn't a valid reason given how infrequently it occus compared to other ABs as well as the miminal amount of variance between one of his ABs and other middle of the order hitters over the course of the season. That's before taking into consideration of how well he does in his other ABs.

[javy knows my name]

Of coarse Dunn can slug well, but pitchers make the decision to try for a two out opportunity rather then give him that opportunity (which with Dunn, a two out opportunity is relatively higher then many other players in the league). Now, assuming he bats between ARam and Lee and there's a runner on third, there's going to be a good opportunity after Dunn walks because ARam has a substantially better average with RISP. However, that sets up a two out opportunity for the pitcher and the only way Dunn on first base helps directly in his AB is if ARam hits a long ball or in a very very long shot a ball is hit in a place where Dunn is able to score from first... which both are not very likely in this situation unlikely.

 

The thing is, you can't rely on your whole lineup to walk to set up opportunities because the law of averages is working against you, even with a team that was so good at getting on base as the Cubs. I am a big believer in OBP as a general concept, but in this specific situation when you have a player of the caliber and renown of Dunn, you need him to drive in your runs instead of extending your possibility for creating an out.

 

Maybe i'm a little slow, but it looks like you just argued that Dunn "extends the possibility for creating an out" by "not making an out." This is a problematic argument, and it makes me question your belief in the importance of OBP if you are so worried about the DP.

 

It sounds like you are advocating "Dusty-izing" Dunn in this specific situation, a.k.a. making contact for the sake of making contact, putting the ball in play, grinding it out, *insert tired, irrelevant baseball cliche here* This is not Dunn's game, NOR SHOULD IT BE. Making Dunn more aggressive in this situation means he chases pitches he doesn't like and handcuffs himself and his awesome power. His game is to crush the mistakes and let the ones he can't do anything with go by, and this shouldn't change even in this scenario. He's never been a high BA guy or a move the runner over guy and his numbers reflect this.

 

And enough about his speed, please. The man is a solid base-runner with plenty of meaningless steals to his credit and I would say 98.73% of the time the DP is the batter's fault, not the runner's (notable exceptions include catchers and Paul Konerko). Put him at the top of the order in front of other guys who crush the ball and this isn't an issue. When simpletons like Dusty bat him 7th, it sure as hell is.

Welcome to the forum and I believe I may like the cut of your jib.

[nilodnayr]

Scarey, your argument only holds water if the guy behind Dunn is a bad hitter. If in the second inning there is a man on third and 2 outs and the 8th hitter is up, absolutely he should be putting the ball in play because the pitcher is up behind him so the chance of that guy on 3rd scoring is very low. But, Dunn would be hitting in the heart of our order. Whoever would be behind him (ARam, Soto, whoever) would be a perfectly capable hitter. So, in the real world case, the dropoff from Dunn to the hitter behind him would be much much smaller than the increase in run expectancy by having an extra guy on base.

[nilodnayr]

Seriously, has no one learned their lesson about signing free agents to a multiyear contract when they've just put up their career highs in batting average, walks, RBIs, HRs, OPS, etc.?

 

You mean like Mark DeRosa's 2006?

 

 

And heres one thing a lot of people overlooked about DeRosa's 2006...his BABIP was 348 which caused everyone to say he got lucky, but his LD% was 22.6% meaning his eBABIP was roughly 346, so it was fairly luck neutral.

 

And while Bradley's BABIP was 396, his LD% was also 24.7% meaning his eBABIP was roughly 367, therefore 396 wasn't as much luck as you might think.

[Guest]

 

Of coarse Dunn can slug well, but pitchers make the decision to try for a two out opportunity rather then give him that opportunity (which with Dunn, a two out opportunity is relatively higher then many other players in the league). Now, assuming he bats between ARam and Lee and there's a runner on third, there's going to be a good opportunity after Dunn walks because ARam has a substantially better average with RISP. However, that sets up a two out opportunity for the pitcher and the only way Dunn on first base helps directly in his AB is if ARam hits a long ball or in a very very long shot a ball is hit in a place where Dunn is able to score from first... which both are not very likely in this situation unlikely.

 

The thing is, you can't rely on your whole lineup to walk to set up opportunities because the law of averages is working against you, even with a team that was so good at getting on base as the Cubs. I am a big believer in OBP as a general concept, but in this specific situation when you have a player of the caliber and renown of Dunn, you need him to drive in your runs instead of extending your possibility for creating an out.

 

The reason the offense was so good last year was that the whole lineup top to bottom showed a patience that Cubs fans have never ever seen unless they watched the Red Sox or Yankees. There was no place for a pitcher to hide because every hitter did his part to swing at good pitches and let pitcher's pitches go by. This is what Dunn does as well so I don't think there's any question he'd fit in perfectly with the Cubs' lineup. The only real questions are his price tag and defense, and just because someone says he'd be the worst right fielder in the history of the game doesn't make it so. Bradley's injuries and well-documented attitude problems make him a disaster waiting to happen. Maybe he'd work out, maybe not. With Dunn, at the very least, his offensive contribution would be reliable and outstanding. Plus he's always RAKED at Wrigley, which is a nice bonus. If the Cubs can afford him, put me in the Dunn over Bradley, Peavy, and everyone else available column.

 

 

Seems to me that Dunn's attitude per heresay is worse than Bradley's.

 

With regard to the runner on third, there are about two situations in a nine inning game where the walk doesn't help the team score runs. The reason is that scoring more than one run is better than only scoring one. In the ninth inning of a tied game, playing for one run substantially increases your chances of winning. Otherwise, you play for more than one and the walk helps you toward that cause. Research has decivisely shown that you are incorrect in asserting that the law of averages is working against you.

 

Secondly, who the runner on first is has absolutely zero correlation with the likelihood of a doubleplay.