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Week 16: Packers @ Bears, MNF on ESPN (7:30 CT)

jersey cubs fan

By jersey cubs fan,
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rawaction Chicago Cubs

rawaction

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Cowboys lost=Bears cant be eliminated from the playoffs this week=game on monday still means something

 

It'll be a lot easier if Minnesota loses to Atlanta this week, though. Bears would have a shot in week 17 with a win and a Vikes loss to the Giants.

 

If Minnesota wins, the chances are probably still too slim to matter anyway. Philly still probably has to lose to the Skins this week and beat Dallas. Tampa has to lose to SD this week. And one of Tampa or Atlanta has to lose next week to the Raiders and Rams respectively.

bukie All-Star

bukie

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Cowboys lost=Bears cant be eliminated from the playoffs this week=game on monday still means something

 

It'll be a lot easier if Minnesota loses to Atlanta this week, though. Bears would have a shot in week 17 with a win and a Vikes loss to the Giants.

 

If Minnesota wins, the chances are probably still too slim to matter anyway. Philly still probably has to lose to the Skins this week and beat Dallas. Tampa has to lose to SD this week. And one of Tampa or Atlanta has to lose next week to the Raiders and Rams respectively.

Yeah, if Philly AND Tampa lose this week, then things start getting interesting.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

If Minnesota, TB and Philly (and the Bears) win this week the scenario would be something like:

 

Bears clinch playoff spot with a win AND an Atlanta loss (to STL) AND a Philly loss (to Dallas) PLUS Bears win strength of victory tiebreaker over Dallas.

 

I have no idea how to calculate strength of victory tiebreaker. Does it have to do with the quality of the opponents you've beaten or the margin of victory over all your opponents?

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Wait a second...did the Dallas loss do anything?

 

The Bears are still 6-5 in the conference, and Dallas is 7-4, which means if Minnesota, TB and Philly win this week the Bears still get eliminated right?

 

Because....TB clinches one of the 2 WC spots (at least away from the Bears), Minnesota clinches the division, which leaves Atlanta, Philly, Dallas and the Bears for the last WC spot.

 

Philly 9-5-1

Atlanta 9-6

Dallas 9-6

Chicago 9-6 (assuming a win over GB)

 

so in week 17....If Atlanta loses to St. Louis, Chicago beats Houston and Philly loses to Dallas its...

 

Dallas 10-6

Chicago 10-6

Philly 9-6-1

Atlanta 9-7

 

So Dallas and Chicago are tied so it goes to tie breakers...

 

Tiebreakers:

1. H2H: Didn't play

2. Conference standings: Dallas 8-4, Chicago 7-5

 

Dallas clinches the playoffs.

 

If Philly beats Dallas instead, they win the last WC spot with a 10-5-1 record.

 

I think Philly or TB or Atlanta still need to lose for the Bears to still be alive.

Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)

Sportscenter just laid out the scenarios needed for Dallas to get in, but I didn't catch all of it. They need TB to lose twice (to SD and OAK) which alone is unlikely

 

ETA: ESPN.com doesn't even list Dallas (or Chicago) on their "how do they get in" page

Edited by Derwood
UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sportscenter just laid out the scenarios needed for Dallas to get in, but I didn't catch all of it. They need TB to lose twice (to SD and OAK) which alone is unlikely

 

Hmm...great point. I forgot that its possible that with a 3 way tie the Bears can get in....which means that we would still be a live because there is a possibility that TB can lose to create a 3 way tie for 2 playoff spots. Now I'm just confused, but it looks like I have been proven wrong. In a scenario where TB, Dallas and Chicago all tie for two spots the Bears still might have a shot.

 

3 team tie breakers

 

1. Sweep of the other two teams tied. TB is the only team that played both of us, and they lost to Dallas while they beat Chicago. So onto step 2...

2. Conference record: Bears 7-5, TB: 8-4, DAL: 8-4. So I'm pretty sure the Bears still lose there.

 

Hmmm....I guess its back to the drawing board.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sportscenter just laid out the scenarios needed for Dallas to get in, but I didn't catch all of it. They need TB to lose twice (to SD and OAK) which alone is unlikely

 

ETA: ESPN.com doesn't even list Dallas (or Chicago) on their "how do they get in" page

 

Probably because neither can get in this week.

Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sportscenter just laid out the scenarios needed for Dallas to get in, but I didn't catch all of it. They need TB to lose twice (to SD and OAK) which alone is unlikely

 

ETA: ESPN.com doesn't even list Dallas (or Chicago) on their "how do they get in" page

 

Probably because neither can get in this week.

 

ah yes, it only lists Week 16 scenarios, which are as follows:

 

New York Giants

The Giants clinch a first-round bye with:

 

1) A victory over Carolina OR

2) Minnesota loss or tie

 

The Giants clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with a victory over Carolina.

 

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers clinch the NFC South title with:

 

1) A victory over the N.Y. Giants or tie OR

2) Tampa Bay loss or tie and Atlanta loss or tie

 

Carolina clinch s a first-round bye with a victory over the N.Y. Giants or tie. It clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with a victory.

 

Carolina clinched a playoff spot with Dallas' loss to Baltimore.

 

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings clinch the NFC North title with:

 

1) A victory over Atlanta OR

2) A tie with Atlanta and Chicago loss or tie OR

3) Chicago loss

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs clinch a playoff spot with:

 

1) A victory over San Diego and Atlanta loss and PhiladelphiaI loss or tie OR

2) A victory over San Diego and Atlanta loss and Dallas loss or tie

 

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons clinch a playoff spot with:

 

1) A victory over Minnesota and Tampa Bay loss and Dallas loss OR

2) A victory over Minnesota and Tampa Bay loss and Dallas tie and Philadelphia loss OR

3) A victory over Minnesota and Tampa Bay loss and Philadelphia loss and Chicago loss or tie OR

4) A victory over Minnesota and Tampa Bay loss and Philadelphia loss and Dallas clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over Chicago

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yeah, I am reading the sportsline.com Joe Ferreira's message board, and everyone there is saying the Bears still need to win and get help from a loss from TB, Min, or Philly to stay alive.
Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yeah, I am reading the sportsline.com Joe Ferreira's message board, and everyone there is saying the Bears still need to win and get help from a loss from TB, Min, or Philly to stay alive.

 

The Bears need to win, period. That's all they can control. A loss to GB and it's over

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
SOB. I forgot about ties. Dallas can still tie Philly, and the Bears will be alive going into Week 17. OK, I am a moron, sorry for wasting half this page with my moronic posts.
UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Best case scenario is obviously SD over TB, ATL over MIN, WAS over PHI, CHI over GB

 

If that happens this what it looks like

 

NFC North

1. MIN 9-6

2. CHI 9-6

 

WC

5. ATL 10-5

6. DAL 9-6

7. TB 9-6

8. CHI 9-6

9. PHI 8-6-1

 

So this would be the Bears scenario for playoffs

 

Chicago wins the NFC North with a win over Houston AND a Minnesota loss or tie to New York Giants OR a tie over Houston AND a Minnesota loss to New York Giants

 

Chicago clinches an NFC Wild Card playoff bearth with a win over Houston AND a Tampa Bay loss or tie to Oakland AND a Dallas loss or tie to Philadelphia OR a tie over Houston AND a Tampa Bay loss to Oakland AND a Dallas loss to Philadelphia

 

I know I'm getting way way way ahead of myself, I just like to do this kinda stuff.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
BTW, I was thinking about it. We should definitely be rooting for Carolina tonight if Minnesota loses. If the Giants win, they get their confidence back and know they can beat the NFC elite. If they lose, they will be in shambles, and will need to probably play their starters for at least a half so they can get their confidence back and end the regular season on a high note before the playoffs.

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