Week 16: Packers @ Bears, MNF on ESPN (7:30 CT)

[jersey cubs fan]

One last prime time matchup against what has been one of the league's most unheralded disappointments this year, the Green Bay Packers. The Bears are 4.5 point favorites against the team that kicked the crap out of them in Green Bay last month. It's quite possible the Bears will have been eliminated from playoff contention before they even step on the field, although other than Minny needing to lose, I'm not sure what other longshot wild card hopes they have.

 

It should be a cold and potentially snowy night. Even if they miss the playoffs I hope they avoid the GB sweep.

[rchap24]

One last prime time matchup against what has been one of the league's most unheralded disappointments this year, the Green Bay Packers. The Bears are 4.5 point favorites against the team that kicked the crap out of them in Green Bay last month. It's quite possible the Bears will have been eliminated from playoff contention before they even step on the field, although other than Minny needing to lose, I'm not sure what other longshot wild card hopes they have.

 

It should be a cold and potentially snowy night. Even if they miss the playoffs I hope they avoid the GB sweep.

 

I see Minn winning on Sunday and then us winning despite the playoff elimination. We always get up for these games and the Packers team that kicked our A's last time is apparently terrible now after losing 3 in a row.

[UMFan83]

One last prime time matchup against what has been one of the league's most unheralded disappointments this year, the Green Bay Packers. The Bears are 4.5 point favorites against the team that kicked the crap out of them in Green Bay last month. It's quite possible the Bears will have been eliminated from playoff contention before they even step on the field, although other than Minny needing to lose, I'm not sure what other longshot wild card hopes they have.

 

It should be a cold and potentially snowy night. Even if they miss the playoffs I hope they avoid the GB sweep.

 

I said this yesterday as fact but now I'm not so sure. Could we really be eliminated before we step on the field? I am not sure...

 

If Atlanta and Tampa Bay both win, we'll be eliminated from the Wild Card. If Minnesota wins we'll be eliminated from the Division. But Minnesota and Atlanta play each other, meaning one of those teams has to lose. The wild card (pun not intended) here is Dallas. I am not sure, have they clinched a tiebreaker over us? If they have then a TB, Dallas and Minnesota combo of wins would eliminate us. But that's about the only thing that would.

 

Tie breakers if Dallas and Chicago only tied for the WC:

 

1. H2H (no games played)

2. Conference record (Dallas 7-4, Chicago 6-5). Dallas plays Baltimore this weekend so a win here wouldn't eliminate the Bears on this tiebreaker.

3. Common games (Dallas 3-1, Chicago 2-2). Dallas still plays Philly in Week 17, and they would need to lose this in order to make this tiebreaker applicable (see conference record). So if Chicago wins the last 2 and Dallas loses to Philly we're still rolling here.

4. Strength of victory. (right now Dallas +44, Chicago +29). So it looks bleak here but remember to even get to this point, Dallas has to lose once more and Chicago has to win 2 games.

 

So Dallas cannot clinch a H2H tiebreaker over Chicago before the Bears play on MNF. So if Atl and TB both win, the Bears still alive in the Division. If MIN and TB and Dallas win, the Bears are still alive (barely) in the Wild Card.

 

Edit: I just remembered, crap. Cleveland has to beat Philly tonight to make this scenario valid. So if Philly wins tonight, we can get eliminated in Week 16 before we play MNF

 

If we beat GB this week, our Week 17 playoff scenario might be something like

 

-Chicago clinches a playoff spot with a win over Houston and a Atlanta loss to St. Louis AND a Dallas loss to Philadelphia AND Chicago clinches the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Dallas.

Edited December 15, 2008 by UMFan83

[bukie]

Dallas has not clinched a tiebreaker over the Bears. The only way they can be eliminated is if Atlanta, Tampa and Minnesota all win this week, which is impossible.

 

I did say this last week, btw. ;)

[UMFan83]

Dallas has not clinched a tiebreaker over the Bears. The only way they can be eliminated is if Atlanta, Tampa and Minnesota all win this week, which is impossible.

 

I did say this last week, btw. ;)

 

I was just incorrect though. If Philly beats Cleveland tonight on MNF, then we can be eliminated this week if Tampa Bay, Dallas and Philly all win because Dallas and Philly play in Week 17, meaning that Dallas needs to lose so we can have a shot at the Strength of Victory tiebreaker. But Dallas losing would mean Philly wins, and they would then have a 10-5-1 record, clinching a spot over the Bears.

 

That stupid tie sucks, it ruins the ONLY H2H tiebreaker we have over any contending teams.

 

If Philly wins tonight:

5.  Dallas     9-5
6.  Atlanta    9-5*
7.  Tampa Bay  9-5*
8.  Philly     8-5-1
9.  Chicago    8-6

*-has H2H victory over us

If Philly, Dallas and Tampa Bay all win this week:

5.  Dallas    10-5
6.  Tampa Bay 10-5*
7.  Philly     9-5-1
8.  Atlanta    9-6*
9.  Chicago    8-6^

*-has H2H victory over us
^-Still has MNF to play

So this leaves Week 17 matchups - 
Dallas/Philly, Tampa Bay/Oakland, Atlanta/St. Louis, Chicago/Houston

If Dallas wins, then Philly clinches a better record than us (along with TB who clinched in Week 16)
If Philly wins, then Dallas clinches a better record than us (  "    "    "  ")

So we're eliminated the previous week.

[Soul]

One last prime time matchup against what has been one of the league's most unheralded disappointments this year, the Green Bay Packers. The Bears are 4.5 point favorites against the team that kicked the crap out of them in Green Bay last month. It's quite possible the Bears will have been eliminated from playoff contention before they even step on the field, although other than Minny needing to lose, I'm not sure what other longshot wild card hopes they have.

 

It should be a cold and potentially snowy night. Even if they miss the playoffs I hope they avoid the GB sweep.

 

I see Minn winning on Sunday and then us winning despite the playoff elimination. We always get up for these games and the Packers team that kicked our A's last time is apparently terrible now after losing 3 in a row.

 

Given the two weeks prior, and how they played yesterday against a bad football team, I am more inclined now to conclude they have BECOME terrible. They'll probably be up for us though, since it would appear to be their best chance for that group of players to make any kind of statement on this year other than "we underachieved."

[cubweiser03]

I cant remember the Bears making or losing out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. They've been in or out because of record alone. Being on the short end of a tiebreaker stick sucks.

[UMFan83]

I cant remember the Bears making or losing out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. They've been in or out because of record alone. Being on the short end of a tiebreaker stick sucks.

 

1995 they lost out on the last week of the season because of a tiebreaker. We finished 9-7 with a victory.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I cant remember the Bears making or losing out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. They've been in or out because of record alone. Being on the short end of a tiebreaker stick sucks.

 

 

1995

 

13-year-old KyleJRM listening to the 49ers/Falcons game knowing there is no *way* Steve Young fails to get a measly field goal drive to win it and put the Bears in the playoffs.

 

Oops.

[Guest]

1995 was my first year REALLY getting into the Bears too. I watched the 49ers-Falcons game and was so pissed.

[bcl412]

While I can never completely root against my team, that breaks some kind of rule, it would probably be better for the Packers if they lost so I will cheer for a win but be completely unfazed by a loss.

[UMFan83]

While I can never completely root against my team, that breaks some kind of rule, it would probably be better for the Packers if they lost so I will cheer for a win but be completely unfazed by a loss.

 

A true Bears/Packers/Vikings fan would not root for the other to win under any circumstances, unless it benefited the greater short term good of your team (meaning playoffs, NOT draft picks).

[bcl412]

While I can never completely root against my team, that breaks some kind of rule, it would probably be better for the Packers if they lost so I will cheer for a win but be completely unfazed by a loss.

 

A true Bears/Packers/Vikings fan would not root for the other to win under any circumstances, unless it benefited the greater short term good of your team (meaning playoffs, NOT draft picks).

 

I'm not rooting for the Bears, I saying I wouldn't care that much if GB lost.

[Garwilly]

I cant remember the Bears making or losing out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. They've been in or out because of record alone. Being on the short end of a tiebreaker stick sucks.

 

 

1995

 

13-year-old KyleJRM listening to the 49ers/Falcons game knowing there is no *way* Steve Young fails to get a measly field goal drive to win it and put the Bears in the playoffs.

 

Oops.

 

 

I was at the Bears/Eagles game. Christmas Eve. The stadium started to worry when the scoreboard stopped showing the other game's score. Bears won 20-14, the first time I had ever stepped into Soldier Field.

 

We scurried to the parking lot, where it was a parking lot os disappointment.

 

I will be there this Monday. As such, the Bears will win.

Edited December 15, 2008 by Garwilly

[soapy]

I cant remember the Bears making or losing out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. They've been in or out because of record alone. Being on the short end of a tiebreaker stick sucks.

 

 

1995

 

13-year-old KyleJRM listening to the 49ers/Falcons game knowing there is no *way* Steve Young fails to get a measly field goal drive to win it and put the Bears in the playoffs.

 

Oops.

 

 

I was at the Bears/Eagles game. Christmas Eve. The stadium started to worry when the scoreboard stopped showing the other game's score.

i was at that game too. ugh.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

1995 was my first year REALLY getting into the Bears too. I watched the 49ers-Falcons game and was so pissed.

 

1995 was the first year I was actually old enough to follow the team like I do now. Stupid Bobby Hebert comming in for the rescue for the Falcons. That team was so much fun to watch.

[UMFan83]

I can't believe 1995 was the first year for some many people. I vividly remember the Bears beating the Vikings in the Metrodome in the 1994 Playoffs and then remember me being naive and thinking we had a shot to beat the 49ers in SF the next week. Well we took a 3-0 lead and I was so excited. Unfortunately, I think the 49ers scored the next 44 points....

[cubweiser03]

1995 really? hmmm. I was a senior in college that year, that probably explains it. That must of sucked, good thing i dont remember that.

 

Last week i wanted the Lions to win. For the last 6 or 7 weeks my wife and i were hoping for a 0-16 season from those guys. I had to sell her that we are going to root for them to win. I told her, 'the lions need to lose this week, our lives depend on it'. This tiebreaker position the Bears are in feels like a slow death.

[Soul]

I can't believe 1995 was the first year for some many people. I vividly remember the Bears beating the Vikings in the Metrodome in the 1994 Playoffs and then remember me being naive and thinking we had a shot to beat the 49ers in SF the next week. Well we took a 3-0 lead and I was so excited. Unfortunately, I think the 49ers scored the next 44 points....

 

The 49ers always found a way to bork us in those days, one way or another.

 

I still hate 'em. If they never recover as a franchise, I'll be a happy camper.

[Guest]

I can't believe 1995 was the first year for some many people. I vividly remember the Bears beating the Vikings in the Metrodome in the 1994 Playoffs and then remember me being naive and thinking we had a shot to beat the 49ers in SF the next week. Well we took a 3-0 lead and I was so excited. Unfortunately, I think the 49ers scored the next 44 points....

 

Well, we're all about the same age.

[bukie]

I was going to be surprised at how nobody caught on in 1985...until I remembered that you'd have to be about 30 to remember that much...yeah...

[ELCABALLO45]

Why are the Packers in primetime?

 

Anyways... I hate the Vikings, I hate the bears.

 

I want to sweep the bears but secretly a better draft pick would be ok.

 

Its going to be a close game, but Green Bay will loss for the 8th time by 5 points or less.

 

Bears 24

Packers 23

[brinoch]

I was going to be surprised at how nobody caught on in 1985...until I remembered that you'd have to be about 30 to remember that much...yeah...

 

Yeah, let's not talk about that...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I was going to be surprised at how nobody caught on in 1985...until I remembered that you'd have to be about 30 to remember that much...yeah...

 

I was too busy celebrating my fourth birthday to watch the big game.

[UMFan83]

I can't believe 1995 was the first year for some many people. I vividly remember the Bears beating the Vikings in the Metrodome in the 1994 Playoffs and then remember me being naive and thinking we had a shot to beat the 49ers in SF the next week. Well we took a 3-0 lead and I was so excited. Unfortunately, I think the 49ers scored the next 44 points....

 

Well, we're all about the same age.

 

I know, I'm about the same age too. Just can't believe people remember the horrible 1995 finish and were too young to remember the fun 1994 finish.