Re: College Football - Bowl Discussion

[imb]

it's embarrassing that florida has even thrown 11 interceptions since all they do is dump the ball off 2 yards down the field

 

You guys are just stupid.

 

Let's look at Tim Tebow passing versus Alabama, and their good pass defense.

 

He threw 22 passes. and none of this includes YAC yards, but just how for downfield that the passes were.

 

8 of the 22 were between 10 and 20 yards downfield. That would be 36%.

5 of the 22 were between 5 and 10 yards downfield.

 

Four of his passes were less than five yards downfield. Let's look at them. 1 was a screen pass that was dropped. That was the ONLY screen that they ran. 1 was a ball he threw away, it barely made the line of scrimmage. The other was a triple option that became a pass. Yes, it was an option. They only got 6 yards total, so not a lot of YAC yards. The other one was when he held the ball for a good five seconds looking downfield and then dumped it off when there was good coverage. Of his eight shortest passes, five of them were inside the ten yard line (ie they couldn't go down field).

 

The other six pass plays? Down the field for more than twenty-five yards.

 

So..breaking it down:

 

23% 25+

36% 10-19

23% 5-9

18% 0-4

 

Oh, and let's look at passing plays when they weren't inside the red zone.

 

29% 25+

47% 10-19

11% 5-9

11% 0-4

 

That's a damn vertical passing game if I ever saw one. It's only one game, but if those ratios hold true or even close to true over the course of the season, Florida might have one of the top two or three most vertical passing games in country. The only teams I can think of that pass deep as often as Florida are Georgia and maybe USC.

 

if tebow ever had to throw the ball down the field, he'd be turned into an average at best qb

[TruffleShuffle]

meph badly needs a hobby. and possibly a restraining order.

[abuck1220]

Bob Stoops should pull a plug on his defense talking to the media. They're getting dumber by the day. Nic Harris decided to call the Florida Gators offense one dimensional and "I don't think that they — [Tebow] — can beat us with his arm." You know Nic. I was looking this year and Florida is fourth in the nation in yards per pass play. FOURTH. The Sooners are only a spot ahead of them. Florida also has just THREE interceptions all season, and a TD:INT ratio over 10:1. The only team to do that by a large margin. Florida is also third in yards per running play. Florida is top four in both categories. Obviously, they're the only team to do that. As a whole, Florida actually made more yards per play than Oklahoma's vaunted offense...and they didn't do it against scarecrow defenses. QB rating blows as a statistic, but Tim Tebow was SECOND in 2007 and THIRD in 2008 in the nation, ahead of McCoy and Harrell both years. Now, I'm not going to say that Florida's offense is better than yours or that Tim Tebow is a better passing QB than Bradford, but one thing is painfully obvious. To say that Florida's offense is one dimensional is to be stupid. Tim Tebow has a career 65:9 TD:INT ratio! Just because Florida doesn't pass the ball 50 times like people do in the Big XII, it doesn't mean they can't pass the ball. Florida's every bit as capable to throw the football as Oklahoma is. They have better wide receivers. They have better pass-catching running backs and they have a good offensive line.

 

i don't think nic harris posts here, but if i run into him, i'll pass this along.

[Mephistopheles]

if tebow ever had to throw the ball down the field, he'd be turned into an average at best qb

 

 

I guess people in Oklahoma cannot read.

[rchap24]

if tebow ever had to throw the ball down the field, he'd be turned into an average at best qb

 

 

I guess people in Oklahoma cannot read.

 

Yeah you didn't exactly support your claim with those numbers

[imb]

well to be fair, a lot of the reason why florida doesn't throw the ball deep is because they dont have the playmakers

[CubInOK]

well to be fair, a lot of the reason why florida doesn't throw the ball deep is because they dont have the playmakers

I disagree.

[The Voice of Reason]

usc fans are worthless. they dont watch other football games and they barely pay attention to their own. *opens sports page* "well we won, sweet" *brags on message boards* *cant name 5 players on their own team*

 

Feel free to provide your indepth polling results and quantitative and qualitative analysis to back up a blanket statement about such a large group of fans. Is your sample size even in double figures?

[The Voice of Reason]

Who can argue with Urban Meyer? He definitely was right two years ago.

 

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Florida coach Urban Meyer believes Utah, Texas and Southern California should fight for their teams to be recognized as national champions.

 

Meyer said at a news conference Wednesday that Utah's Kyle Whittingham, Texas' Mack Brown and USC's Pete Carroll would be bad coaches if they didn't lobby to be ranked No. 1.

 

Carroll has proclaimed his Trojans the best in the country. Whittingham and Brown have made it clear they will vote their teams No. 1 in the coaches' poll regardless of what happens when the No. 1 Gators play No. 2 Oklahoma in the Bowl Championship Series national title game Thursday night.

 

Meyer did similar lobbying two years ago when he said his one-loss Gators should play in the BCS title game over Michigan.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090107/ap_on_sp_co_ne/fbc_t25_bcs_championship_4

[Mephistopheles]

well to be fair, a lot of the reason why florida doesn't throw the ball deep is because they dont have the playmakers

I disagree.

 

IMB! is just being stupid.

 

To compare, I've only gone through the first half of the Ohio State game, granted most of UT's offense came in the third quarter..but in the first half versus Alabama Tebow had more passes longer than 10 yards than McCoy did, despite throwing half as many passes total. In fact McCoy threw as many passes 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage as he did longer than 10 yards.

 

Breakdown:

 

19% < 0

37% 0-4

26% 5-9

14% 10-20

4% 25+

 

Tebow threw 59% of his passes longer than 10 yards. McCoy threw 82% less than 10 yards.

[Mephistopheles]

People in Oklahoma really are dumb.

 

http://www.bustedcoverage.com/?p=9898

[imb]

wins and losses dont matter, so win or lose, OU is the national champs

[TruffleShuffle]

brandon spikes is still dumber than anyone in this thread or on oklahoma.

[Hosak8]

wins and losses dont matter, so win or lose, OU is the national champs

 

DING! DING! DING! We have a winner.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(not that it matters...)

[B]

Brandon Lang absolutely shredded OU in his pick for the National Championship.

[B]

the spread has increased to -5.

[Mephistopheles]

Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes and Percy Harvin are talking about all coming back next season for their senior year ala the Gators basketball team a couple years ago. If that happens, the Gators will return every defensive player on their two deep and lose two players on their offensive two deep.

[Mephistopheles]

Final Rankings Before Title Game:

 

First the Conferences

 

New Old

59.92 60.01 Big 12

58.61 59.69 ACC

58.48 56.47 SEC

54.98 52.97 PAC 10

54.10 55.81 Big Ten

53.66 53.30 Big East

51.66 51.13 MWC

42.19 40.70 CUSA

41.88 42.56 WAC

41.21 41.60 IND

39.15 41.92 MAC

34.97 34.13 Sun Belt

 

AS you can see, the SEC looked like it was down year prior to the bowls, but had widespread gains to make a pretty big move pu in the rankings. The Pac 10 also had large gains across the board. The Big Ten fell behind the Pac 10, but not enough to fall behind the Big East as the worst BCS conferences. The MWC was close to becoming the second conference in history to be higher than a BCS conference. They did it in 2004 finishing ahead of the Big East, which was the Big East's first year after Miami and Virginia Tech left.

 

Next year looks to be like a down year for the Mid-majors. The WAC's Boise State Broncos travel to Oregon the first month of the season. They'll lose that one, for sure. As far as the MWC goes. Brigham Young travels to Dallas to play Oklahoma. That's going to be a woodshed beating. They take on the much improved 'Noles, that's going to be a beatdown though it is a home game. Utah also travels to Oregon, like Boise and also has Louisville coming. They have road games vs TCU and BYU next year. Much tougher schedule. Finally, TCU has an easier schedule with their one decent non-conference game being Virginia. It's going to be a down year for mid-majors, I think. The Pac 10 ought to be much improved. The SEC should be about the same. The ACC will be fine. The Big Ten should improve and the Big XII will regress. The Big East does not matter and neither does the Sun Belt, CUSA or especially the crappy MAC.

[TruffleShuffle]

Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes and Percy Harvin are talking about all coming back next season for their senior year ala the Gators basketball team a couple years ago. If that happens, the Gators will return every defensive player on their two deep and lose two players on their offensive two deep.

 

as long as someone keeps doing spikes' homework for him and taking his tests, he should do it. tebow should do it so that he can be great for another year before his football career heads down the crapper.

[Mephistopheles]

Florida goes into the game as the number 1.

 

Rk Pts Prv School

1. 83.91 2 Florida

2. 83.84 1 Oklahoma

3. 80.24 4 Southern Cal

4. 80.22 3 Texas

5. 73.32 7 Utah

6. 73.08 5 Penn State

7. 72.37 6 Texas Tech

8. 70.27 10 TCU

9. 69.91 9 Alabama

10. 68.08 8 Ohio State

11. 67.76 12 Missouri

12. 67.60 17 Oregon

13. 67.30 11 Boise St

14. 66.98 16 Georgia

15. 66.29 15 Florida St

16. 66.09 24 Mississippi

17. 65.84 13 Oklahoma St

18. 65.66 19 California

19. 65.27 20 Oregon St

20. 62.84 23 Virginia Tech

21. 62.78 21 Iowa

22. 62.58 26 Nebraska

23. 62.46 14 Georgia Tech

24. 62.12 18 North Carolina

25. 61.10 25 Pittsburgh

26. 60.84 31 Wake Forest

27. 60.48 28 Brigham Young

28. 60.46 35 Arizona

29. 60.38 22 Boston College

30. 60.28 33 Kansas

 

Lastly, top 30 by predictor.

 

Rk Pts Prv School

1. 87.80 2 Florida

2. 86.75 1 Oklahoma

3. 84.32 3 Southern Cal

4. 81.33 4 Texas

5. 77.59 5 Penn State

6. 71.52 6 Texas Tech

7. 70.35 8 TCU

8. 69.95 7 Missouri

9. 69.72 9 Ohio State

10. 69.23 12 Utah

11. 68.94 10 Alabama

12. 68.46 13 Oregon

13. 68.08 17 Mississippi

14. 67.45 14 Iowa

15. 67.29 15 Boise St

16. 67.12 11 Oklahoma St

17. 66.70 16 California

18. 65.26 18 Arizona

19. 64.40 20 Florida St

20. 64.24 19 Oregon St

21. 63.33 21 Georgia

22. 61.46 22 North Carolina

23. 60.92 24 Nebraska

24. 59.87 26 Kansas

25. 59.38 25 Clemson

26. 59.26 38 Tulsa

27. 58.77 31 Wake Forest

28. 58.71 23 Georgia Tech

29. 58.53 27 Brigham Young

30. 58.44 30 Pittsburgh

[OleMissCub]

The most typical Ohio St. fan ever:

 

[B]

spread is at -6 now. it started at -3.5. so basically everyone is betting on Florida.

[Mephistopheles]

Well, relatively speaking, the SEC has increased quite a bit since the bowls started, playing much better than anticipated. The Big XII on the other hand has decreased a bit since the bowls started, playing much worse than anticipated. Prior to the bowls, my system had Oklahoma with a 0.59 point edge on the Gators. After entering the bowl data Florida has a 1.05 point edge on the Sooners. A 1.64 point swing between two teams who didn't even play is an astronomic jump this late in the season.

[TruffleShuffle]

spread is at -6 now. it started at -3.5. so basically everyone is betting on Florida.

 

not really. more bets were placed on texas tech than ole miss, but the line went from like texas tech -7 to -4, meaning that your average fan was betting small money on texas tech, but the big-money professionals were all over ole miss. i actually have a friend who bets a lot based on where the "smart money" is going.

 

in this case you're right though, 2/3 of the bets are going on florida and the line has moved 2 to 3 points in their direction.

[Mephistopheles]

Everyone likes to do these, so so will I.

 

Five Reasons Oklahoma Will Win

 

1. The offense is too good and Florida's "great" defense was created by a dearth of passing offense in the SEC.

2. Florida's defense probably is, at best, as good as Texas Chrisitians, and the Sooners still jumped all over the Horned Frogs early.

3. Tim Tebow is 1-6 when trailing in the fourth quarter. 1 and 6.

4. The last time that Florida faced an effective spread offense Urban Meyer wasn't at Florida. Or Utah. He was at Bowling Green. The Big XII and Texas High Schools have perfected the spread.

5. Oklahoma is pissed and tired of hearing about Tim Tebow's heart. They'll take him out. He'll be hurt by halftime.

 

Five Reasons Florida Will Win

 

1. The offense is nothing like Oklahoma has seen. They haven't seen an offense this fast, this athletic, nor a spread running offense. Ever.

2. Oklahoma will try to force Tim Tebow to throw. Tim Tebow was second in the nation in passing efficiency last season and third in the nation in passing efficiency this year. Something tells me that's not a very good game plan.

3. Oklahoma has not faced a defense with this much speed or athleticism since the last time they were in a championship game. That didn't turn out too well. Florida hasn't faced a defense this bad in quite awhile either. They carved up top ten defenses with regularity this season.

4. Tim Tebow. The left arm of god is going to will the Gators to victory.

5. Sam Bradford won the heisman. What happened the last time Florida played a heisman trophy winner for the National Title?

 

 

Personally, this is going to be a good game. I think you'll see Oklahoma jump out to a sizable lead early in the game, say 14-7 or maybe 14-0 as Florida adjusts to the tempo. Once Florida has adjusted I think their athleticism will be able to stop the Oklahoma offense later in the game, much like Texas Christian and Texas did. Oklahoma scored 21 points in the second half of those games. Combined. And those were the two best defenses they faced all season and Florida's is probably more talented.

 

I think Oklahoma will have success stopping the rushing attack of Harvin, Demps, Rainey and Tebow early in the game, but Tebow will just sit back and pass like he did last season for much of the evening. Then in the second half a rested Emmanuel Moody should be able to hit the beleaguered Sooner defense for some big runs.

 

After 1 Quarter.

Oklahoma 14-7

 

At Half Time.

Oklahoma 21-17

 

After 3 Quarters

Florida 31-28

 

At the End:

Florida 38-35

 

This game is going to be a close one. You can go either way. I'd say Florida wins around 53% of the time. It's a great matchup. Should be an outstanding game.